Cont: Brexit: Now What? Turning it up to 11

[Lothian]

The trouble is that copy and paste does not work. So rewriting is needed. And the legislation introduces a far too short deadline for the task.

So an indeterminate number of regulations will fall out of law at the end and without an assessment of what the impact would be.
.

Absolutely. We won't understand the effect until well after the brexiteers have claimed it a huge success.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Can somebody please tell the idiots banging on about a Switzerland-type deal that it has exactly 0% chance of happening, exactly the same chance as the UK being allowed into the Single Market and Customs union without rejoining the EU?

Part of the reason why UK-EU negotiations are so hard is that nobody in the UK seems to understand how the EU works.

 

[The Don]

Can somebody please tell the idiots banging on about a Switzerland-type deal that it has exactly 0% chance of happening, exactly the same chance as the UK being allowed into the Single Market and Customs union without rejoining the EU?

Part of the reason why UK-EU negotiations are so hard is that nobody in the UK seems to understand how the EU works.

It can not and will not happen.

The UK government wants all the benefits of EU membership with none of the responsibilities. The idea that they would want some of the benefits with most of the responsibilities is laughable.

As soon as they find out what they would have to sign up to in order to get a Swiss style deal they'll abandon the idea.

 

[Lothian]

It can not and will not happen.

The UK government wants all the benefits of EU membership with none of the responsibilities. The idea that they would want some of the benefits with most of the responsibilities is laughable.

As soon as they find out what they would have to sign up to in order to get a Swiss style deal they'll abandon the idea.

Are you ruling out understanding the deal then willfully misleading people about it, signing it, complaining we can't stick to it, ignoring bits of the deal on a temporary basis, threatening to unilaterally ignore inconvenient bits permanently, having years of inconvenience and uncertainty as we seek to renegotiate the agreement?

Of course you are, no competent government would ever do that.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

It can not and will not happen.

The UK government wants all the benefits of EU membership with none of the responsibilities. The idea that they would want some of the benefits with most of the responsibilities is laughable.

As soon as they find out what they would have to sign up to in order to get a Swiss style deal they'll abandon the idea.

They won't get a Switzeland type deal, the EU ruled that out day one, as it's too easy to game.

 

[catsmate]

The much heralded UK-Japan trade deal has not led to billions more trade but instead there has been a drop in trade of about 10%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/26/brexit-britain-japan-trade-deal-exports-slump

 

[Darat]

The much heralded UK-Japan trade deal has not led to billions more trade but instead there has been a drop in trade of about 10%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/26/brexit-britain-japan-trade-deal-exports-slump

I see you rather tellingly haven't included the trade in stilton cheese! Talk about obvious remoaner bias.

 

[catsmate]

I see you rather tellingly haven't included the trade in stilton cheese! Talk about obvious remoaner bias.

Unfortunately I have been unable to find details of that vital aspect, comprising as it does approximately 0.01% of the UK-J trade volume. However you'll be glad to know that exports of cheese from Germany, Ireland and Belgium are booming.
https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/cheese/reporter/jpn?redirect=true

 

[The Don]

The much heralded UK-Japan trade deal has not led to billions more trade but instead there has been a drop in trade of about 10%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/26/brexit-britain-japan-trade-deal-exports-slump

It's almost as if the UK isn't very good at negotiating trade deals.

Former environment minister George Eustice was critical of the Australia trade deal a couple of weeks ago.

Former environment secretary George Eustice has savaged the UK's free trade deal with Australia and criticised Liz Truss's role in negotiating it.

Mr Eustice, who helped secure the agreement, told a Commons debate that it was "not actually a very good deal for the UK".

It was the first post-Brexit deal negotiated from scratch.

But Mr Eustice argued it gave away "too much" after the then trade secretary Ms Truss "shattered" the UK's negotiation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63627801

George Eustice was responsible for securing the deal which means that he worked hard to force it through despite him knowing that it was a poor deal. Apparently it was the timetable of negotiations that made things worse for the UK:

The UK started negotiations "with the strongest possible hand" but Mr Eustice said negotiators were put "on the back foot" by Ms Truss demanding that the terms of the deal were agreed before a meeting of the G7 in Cornwall on 11 June 2021.

IMO the UK vastly overestimated the strength of its position and the Australians always had the whip hand due to the fact that Australia wanted a trade deal but the UK desperately needed one - and the whole world knew it.

 

[Wildy]

They won't get a Switzeland type deal, the EU ruled that out day one, as it's too easy to game.

The EU also ruled out a Swiss type deal because of the UK's red lines, as shown in this diagram back in 2017.

 

[The Don]

The EU also ruled out a Swiss type deal because of the UK's red lines, as shown in this diagram back in 2017.

True, but if the UK were to remove some of their red lines then a Swiss type deal could theoretically be on the table. I think that this is unlikely for many reasons including:

• There has been universal denial from the government that a Swiss type deal is being considered
• The UK won't move on the red lines no matter how damaging a hard Brexit is to the UK economy because the Tory party won't stand for it
• The UK has repeatedly negotiated in bad faith, signed up to deals and then rapidly repudiated them - the EU won't negotiate on that basis
• The Swiss deal is a "bespoke arrangement" covering 100+ individual bilateral treaties. The EU has said that it's not interested in bespoke arrangements, the UK would have to order from the standard menu. It would also take a very, very long time to get agreement on that many bilateral agreements

The story was broken by the Sunday Times and they must have had something behind it. In my view it's a case of flying this idea to see how negative the feedback from the Conservative Party is but that there's no appetite for anything other than a hard, no deal Brexit for dogmatic reasons.

 

[Norman Alexander]

It is going on and creating loads of totally unnecessary work in civil service offices. People are rewriting laws that are perfectly adequate. It is not materially changing their effect or rather is not intended to
It is simply to make them 'British' and make the ridiculous claim that they are our rules and not under Brussels influence.

Fairly sure it was a Rees-Mogg driven idea.

From out here, I have heard that in some places without the manpower to make the changes on time, they are simply doing something to the effect of putting an "OHMS" rubber stamp on the top of the existing legislative documents. I expect it is not as simple as that, but all the same, just changing the document title or even just author or authority has been a legitimate way of "refreshing" what is already in place.

Also, Rees-Mogg has proven himself a clueless toffee-nosed layabout in a plaid jacket, for the most part. A hindrance to any actual progress. The sooner he is relegated to the office tea-maid role the better.

 

[The Don]

One of the messages sent by Brexit supporters was that we needed to be less dependent on the slowly growing EU and get closer to rapidly growing economies like China. This message ignored a number of uncomfortable truths:

• That physical proximity is a major factor when it comes to trade. The notion that we'd have the same volume of trade with China half way around the world is ridiculous.
• EU membership wasn't a barrier to increasing trade with China, other EU countries do far more trade than the UK
• Being outside the EU reduces our "clout" when it comes to setting up trade deals

Nevertheless, the message was clear, the EU is the past, China is the future.

The government has now reversed that position:

Rishi Sunak has said the so-called "golden era" of relations with China is over, as he vowed to "evolve" the UK's stance towards the country.

In his first foreign policy speech, Mr Sunak said the closer economic ties of the previous decade had been "naïve".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63787877

IMO he's not wrong but if we're not going to be able to buddy up to China then where is our growth going to come from ?

More economic illiteracy from the UK government.

 

[Lothian]

IMO he's not wrong but if we're not going to be able to buddy up to China then where is our growth going to come from ?

More economic illiteracy from the UK government.

The plan is to team up with the world's fastest growing economies such as

Maldives
Guyana
Macao &
Fiji

Who needs the big slow coaches like the EU, USA, China & India we want to trade with the fast guys. What??

 

[Darat]

One of the messages sent by Brexit supporters was that we needed to be less dependent on the slowly growing EU and get closer to rapidly growing economies like China. This message ignored a number of uncomfortable truths:

• That physical proximity is a major factor when it comes to trade. The notion that we'd have the same volume of trade with China half way around the world is ridiculous.
• EU membership wasn't a barrier to increasing trade with China, other EU countries do far more trade than the UK
• Being outside the EU reduces our "clout" when it comes to setting up trade deals

Nevertheless, the message was clear, the EU is the past, China is the future.

The government has now reversed that position:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63787877

IMO he's not wrong but if we're not going to be able to buddy up to China then where is our growth going to come from ?

More economic illiteracy from the UK government.

"...In his first foreign policy speech, Mr Sunak said the closer economic ties of the previous decade had been "naïve"...."

If only he had been in government in that "previous decade" we wouldn't be in this mess right now!

 

[The Don]

"...In his first foreign policy speech, Mr Sunak said the closer economic ties of the previous decade had been "naïve"...."

If only he had been in government in that "previous decade" we wouldn't be in this mess right now!

I really hope that the government manages to get to the bottom of who has been running the country for the last 12 years because they really seem to have messed up on a huge range of things across the board which has left the current government with a huge challenge.

Jeremy Corbyn has a lot to answer for.

 

[Darat]

I really hope that the government manages to get to the bottom of who has been running the country for the last 12 years because they really seem to have messed up on a huge range of things across the board which has left the current government with a huge challenge.

Jeremy Corbyn has a lot to answer for.

The tories did the big lie thing with the financial crash of 2008 and it worked, they are doing the same again and as far as I can tell it is working again.

None of the media are questioning them. Time and time again it should be "So why should we trust that you aren't being naive AGAIN?" or "Why were you naive?" they are being able to construct this narrative that "they" aren't the last 12 years. I really do despair.

 

[The Don]

The tories did the big lie thing with the financial crash of 2008 and it worked, they are doing the same again and as far as I can tell it is working again.

None of the media are questioning them. Time and time again it should be "So why should we trust that you aren't being naive AGAIN?" or "Why were you naive?" they are being able to construct this narrative that "they" aren't the last 12 years. I really do despair.

I guess there's no money in it for them to do so.

The media isn't there to discover and publicise the truth, it's there to generate income for its owners (or in the case of something like the BBC, traffic to its various channels whilst meeting its obligations to be unbiased). There may still be a market for a media which asks tough questions but it doesn't seem to be a mass market.

 

[catsmate]

To the surprise of no-one except the hardcore Brexiteers, Britain's departure from the EU has added massively to food bills, around six billion pounds in fact. Naturally the poorer are most effected.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-to-uk-food-bills-in-two-years-research-finds

 

[The Don]

To the surprise of no-one except the hardcore Brexiteers, Britain's departure from the EU has added massively to food bills, around six billion pounds in fact. Naturally the poorer are most effected affected.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-to-uk-food-bills-in-two-years-research-finds

[snark]FTFY.[/snark]

Of course it's nothing at all to do with Brexit, it's because of Covid or Ukraine.

Just because UK prices are increasing faster than those in the EU, that the UK economy is lagging behind other developed economies and the collapse of the pound resulting from Truss and Kwarteng's economic ineptitude has exacerbated this terrible situation, there's no reason to suggest that Brexit is in any way to blame.