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The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

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Perun pointed this out in his artillery video. The fact that they are expending so much ordnance and achieving so little is a sign of how incompetent and incapable the Russian army is.

Additionally, for those who seem to discount the claims of most Western military experts that the Russians can't possibly sustain this level of fire indefinitely, let's do a little math. The cost of a Czech 152mm artillery shell, according to this web site that's raising money for the Ukrainian armed forces, is US$812, and the cost of a 122mm rocket is US$641. I'll assume Putin can buy one of each for about US$500, due to purchasing-power parity advantages and coercion. That's US$30 million per day, or about US$11 billion per year. Russia's entire defense budget is only about US$60 billion. And Russia's finances are only going to get worse as the sanctions bite and the global recession hits.

ETA: And that's without considering barrel wear.

Yeah but none of that means Russia can manufacture huge amounts of artillery shells at those kinds of costs. They only have capacity to build so many and gearing up could mean needing a large expense in building new facilities, expanding mines, recruiting new workers rounding up slaves to work etc, which all takes money and time.
 
Reading this article that came from this tweet, it sounds like some upbeat news.

But war observers also say the strikes on Crimea are degrading Russia's ability to fend off Ukraine's telegraphed counteroffensive in Kherson, the strategically important coastal region north of the Crimean peninsula. "Russian supply lines from Crimea directly support Russian forces in mainland Ukraine including those in western Kherson Oblast," the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank assessed on Tuesday.

"Russia's possibilities on the battlefield are being limited" by Ukraine's strikes in Crimea, independent Russian military analyst Pavel Luzin tells the Times. "Crimea is the only way to support the grouping of troops in the Kherson and Zaporizka regions. Otherwise, this grouping of troops does not exist."

The "attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a coherent Ukrainian counteroffensive to regain control" of Kherson city, ISW's analysts write. "Ukraine's targeting of Russian ground lines of communication and logistic and support assets in Crimea is consistent with the Ukrainian counteroffensive effort that has also targeted bridges over the Dnipro River and Russian logistical support elements in occupied Kherson Oblast."

If I'm reading it right that means that Ukraine is doing a great job at tying this all together. The attacks in Crimea are going to have a significant impact on the, not, counteroffensive surrounding Kherson. That sounds significantly better for Ukraine as they're able to coordinate attacks for a maximum impact.
 
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Another base goes boom, boom. This time in Nova Kakhovka on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. Footage of the aftermath here:

t.me/DPSUkr/5718

[someone linkify this please]

If they can keep up this level of attrition, it will seriously degrade Russia's ability to wage war in the South.

Can you imagine how sweaty it must be to be stationed at one of these bases? I don't think the psychological effect should be underestimated.
 
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In that context (of constant artillery use): I read this morning that, according to a speaker of the UA Department of Defense, Russia is estimated to still shoot 60,000 rounds of artillery every day, mostly at UA army positions. So clearly Russia will run out of ammo any day now. As they have since May.

They probably still have tens of millions of artillery rounds stored away from the Soviet era. They probably run out of guns before they run out of ammo. If they really are firing 60000 rounds a day they are wearing out 30 gun barriers every day or almost 1000 per month. They can still keep shooting those guns until they explode but they are not likely hit anything of military significance.
 
I'm wondering what shape the old shells they have in stock are in. If they used cordite for the shells they will find that as it ages it degrades into a faster burning chemical mix. This could create overpressure issues in gun barrels.
 
They probably still have tens of millions of artillery rounds stored away from the Soviet era.

How do you figure?

How many of those were reliably manufactured to begin with?

How many are still serviceable after all these years of storage?

How many were appropriated and sold off by black-marketeers?

How many were actually manufactured anywhere but on paper?
 
I'm wondering what shape the old shells they have in stock are in. If they used cordite for the shells they will find that as it ages it degrades into a faster burning chemical mix. This could create overpressure issues in gun barrels.

As an ex US Redleg, that is my question.I got a feeling that Russian storage for the shells left a lot to be desired.
 
Lots of RUssian equipment going boom.

In the words of Commander Susan ivanova...

No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There's always a boom tomorrow. What? Look, somebody's got to have some damn perspective around here! Boom.
 
As an ex US Redleg, that is my question.I got a feeling that Russian storage for the shells left a lot to be desired.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1551323077329539073?s=20

Russian 2S7M suffered a catastrophic barrel failure, with a 103kg shell traveling about 2100mph (960m/s), I would not want to be anywhere near that when it went boom.

Also a sign that Russian crews may be pushing their current artillery systems to the edge of reliability.

[IMGW=320]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1447&pictureid=13186[/IMGW]

which got this reply photo of a captured 30mm cannon

[IMGW=320]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1447&pictureid=13185[/IMGW]


Given these and the Russian approach to safety, I wouldn't bet against your assessment.
 
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1551323077329539073?s=20

which got this reply photo of a captured 30mm cannon


Given these and the Russian approach to safety, I wouldn't bet against your assessment.

Yes, armed forces in the West would consider the quality of much of the Russian equipment to be deplorable and wouldn't consider using them to destruction in the way that the Russians have done on at least one occasion.

OTOH, they seem good enough for what Russia appears to want to to - fire large volumes of comparatively inaccurate ordnance to reduce large parts of Ukraine to rubble. It doesn't seem to matter to Russia if they flatten a school or a hospital or how many civilian lives are lost - it's all part of their scorched earth approach to grinding out the war. :(

I think one of the mistakes that pundits in the West are making is to judge Russian equipment, tactics and war aims by our standards. Russian units may be more resilient to attrition than those in the West because they are less sophisticated, require fewer specialists and/or simply value life less. Russia is prepared to use outdated equipment and ordnance because the accuracy that comes with better equipment seems to be less important to them than the sheer volume of fire.
 
Yes, armed forces in the West would consider the quality of much of the Russian equipment to be deplorable and wouldn't consider using them to destruction in the way that the Russians have done on at least one occasion.

OTOH, they seem good enough for what Russia appears to want to to - fire large volumes of comparatively inaccurate ordnance to reduce large parts of Ukraine to rubble. It doesn't seem to matter to Russia if they flatten a school or a hospital or how many civilian lives are lost - it's all part of their scorched earth approach to grinding out the war. :(

I think one of the mistakes that pundits in the West are making is to judge Russian equipment, tactics and war aims by our standards. Russian units may be more resilient to attrition than those in the West because they are less sophisticated, require fewer specialists and/or simply value life less. Russia is prepared to use outdated equipment and ordnance because the accuracy that comes with better equipment seems to be less important to them than the sheer volume of fire.

Something as large as the Russian armed forces in Ukraine can withstand a lot of "corrosion" before it becomes ineffective. That doesn't mean that the corrosion isn't happening.
 
They probably still have tens of millions of artillery rounds stored away from the Soviet era. They probably run out of guns before they run out of ammo. If they really are firing 60000 rounds a day they are wearing out 30 gun barriers every day or almost 1000 per month. They can still keep shooting those guns until they explode but they are not likely hit anything of military significance.

And they had ammo dumps blowing up long before the war as well:
https://www.overtdefense.com/2020/10/13/why-do-russian-ammunition-depots-keep-blowing-up/

Poor safety standards, low moral, abuse of conscripts.... it goes back a long way.
 
As an ex US Redleg, that is my question.I got a feeling that Russian storage for the shells left a lot to be desired.

I wonder this as well.
Normally you would rotate stock, the newer stuff goes to the back and you bring the older stuff to the front.

If they haven't been rotating stock for 10 years, let's say, they could just now be getting to the 10 year old stuff that has been in the back of the storage shed.

Their track record seems to be lack of maintenance and to some conscripts rotating stock may not seem like a good use of time.
 
Precise machining is for suckers!!!!!!!!!

I wonder if that thing could even be aimed right.

If it always pulls to one side, then you can correct for that. I'd be more worried about what that means for catastrophic barrel failure than what it means for aiming.
 
I think one of the mistakes that pundits in the West are making is to judge Russian equipment, tactics and war aims by our standards. Russian units may be more resilient to attrition than those in the West because they are less sophisticated, require fewer specialists and/or simply value life less. Russia is prepared to use outdated equipment and ordnance because the accuracy that comes with better equipment seems to be less important to them than the sheer volume of fire.

I saw a thing highlighting Russian tactics:

Shell an area for a time - hours, days, multiple days. Not a large area necessarily, not with accurate artillery, but just hammer it for a good long time.

Maybe do a bit of shoot and scoot, but so far Ukrainian counter-battery fire has been of very limited effectiveness. Efforts to limit supplies of ordnance delivered to the Russian guns has had some success, but not actual destruction of the guns. And they seem to be working through the logistics problems a bit. The Russians are not as flush with ammo as they were a month ago, but they've got more than now than they did in that first week or two after HIMARS equipment first starting hitting the ammo unloading points.

Finally, after hours or days of utterly hammering an area, send in a platoon or two of infantry. That's all, no huge movement of thousands of soldiers, literally just one or two platoons sized groups.

If they don't face much resistance, they take the area and dig in - mind you, they are not taking large areas when they do this, just a small village, a city block or two, or a patch of forest, even just a forested strip between fields.

If they face resistance, pull the infantry back. Go back to the first step (pound it with artillery) and start over. They don't need good infantry to do this because they don't try very hard. The Russian infantry are just there to mop up survivors of the artillery barrage, and if there are too many survivors, they just pull back and let the big guns go back to work.

This is a pretty low risk strategy, and the most crucial bit - the artillery troops - are not taking much casualties at all. They can keep it up as long as they've got artillery guns and ammo. They don't need much accuracy, it does not matter so much if the target is an area some hundreds of meters across being targeted by dozens or hundreds of guns for a day or two continuously.

It is, however, a very slow strategy.

It seems like everyone is settling in for a long-duration war.
 
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