The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[jimbob]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1559445970533892103?s=20&t=ZA8_MF-0JyNmJBm9Ez4aRg

Looks like it was... As well.

And a railway line.

To quote Dan Kaszeta on the news

https://twitter.com/DanKaszeta/status/1559456691527245825?s=20&t=ZA8_MF-0JyNmJBm9Ez4aRg

Most feared words, 'rail replacement bus'

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1559458287820627970?s=20&t=ZA8_MF-0JyNmJBm9Ez4aRg

Can see why it was a target

 

[a_unique_person]

Russia continues to grind on towards Bakhmut. They've taken a strategic crossroads to the East of the city and are looking to attack Bakhmut from two or three directions.

Whether the reported strike on the Wagner Group in Popasna has a significant impact is a good question.

ISW reports morale issues for members of the militias recruited from the occupied territories but so far this has not translated to military reversals.

Their rate of progress has slowed significantly.

 

[Klimax]

Russia continues to grind on towards Bakhmut. They've taken a strategic crossroads to the East of the city and are looking to attack Bakhmut from two or three directions.

Where did you read that? British BS tabloid? So far no evidence whatsoever.
Reference: https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1559230789514137601

Source your claims!

Just special for you: Can you find that advance you keep talking about?
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1558937321885487104

 

[Oystein]

Where did you read that? British BS tabloid? So far no evidence whatsoever.
Reference: https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1559230789514137601

Source your claims!

Just special for you: Can you find that advance you keep talking about?
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1558937321885487104

Thanks for the obviously unbiased primary source.

 

[The Don]

Where did you read that? British BS tabloid?

Nope, I first heard about it on Denys Davydov's daily (pro-Ukrainian) situation update.

It's confirmed by ISW's mapping:

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

 

[jimbob]

And the next Crimean airfield has been hit

 

[Mike!]

And the next Crimean airfield has been hit

I'm enjoying this immensely. They aren't allowed new weapons that can strike within Russia prime directly, but they can use their own stuff to hit things deep in Crimea, while not crossing that invisible line, and proving the same effect AS if they were hitting Russia prime directly.
As Mr. Burns would put it, "Excellent."

 

[plague311]

Nope, I first heard about it on Denys Davydov's daily (pro-Ukrainian) situation update.

It's confirmed by ISW's mapping:

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

Even those that are pro-Ukraine only report on the negative impacts to Ukraine and its people. That's the way it goes sometimes.

Ukraine seems to be making more progress in their counterattack. They're building up the military now with more weapons support from other countries, and are doing damage deeper into Crimea. I would say their outlook is getting better every day.

 

[a_unique_person]

Even those that are pro-Ukraine only report on the negative impacts to Ukraine and its people. That's the way it goes sometimes.



Ukraine seems to be making more progress in their counterattack. They're building up the military now with more weapons support from other countries, and are doing damage deeper into Crimea. I would say their outlook is getting better every day.

He reports everything. Dennis is a good source of information even if he's not experienced militarily. He has been anticipating the Kherson offensive for weeks now. He just works with the facts he has.

 

[plague311]

He reports everything. Dennis is a good source of information even if he's not experienced militarily. He has been anticipating the Kherson offensive for weeks now. He just works with the facts he has.

I was being a bit tongue-in-cheek, but that's good to know.

 

[Oystein]

Striking deep behind enemy lines is, while an excellent new development, not a "counteroffensive" nor otherwise necessarily "offensive" as such - it's merely disruptive, as any strike on a target is. It could be construed as preparing the battlefield for a future offense, but just as well as a way to diminish the enemy's offensive potential, hence as defensive in nature.

What's happening in Kherson oblast on the West side of the river is encouraging, and more a case of preparing the battlefield. I don't see however that Ukraine has yet the capabilities for actual offensive maneuvre warfare beyond that side of the Dnipro: This would take plenty of certain kinds of equipment (tanks) with respective ammo, some aerial capabilities (helicopters, planes, ARM), and most importantly enough soldiers and officers trained in combined arms maneuvre warfare of that kind. They may over time succeed in pushing the Russians back East, even contest the city of Kherson, but I do not see Ukraine establishing a bridgehead on the East bank and moving offensively from there.

I would guess the main short-term goal is to demonstrate that Russia can not hope to be secure in the territories they think they control, and hand them some sort of tangible defeat to challenge morale further.

 

[sackett]

About Russian morale:

I am here and now declaring this Shoot Your Officers Day, with a special callout to the hardworking fellas of the armies of the greater slavic motherland at home and abroad! Lock 'em! Load 'em! Bang 'em off! And raise your spirits to the sky!

 

[ginjawarrior]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wpy7i3/dzhankoy_video_before_the_strike_and_after/

Looks like a lot of destroyed equipment here

 

[SpitfireIX]

Per the BBC, the Russians are claiming sabotage. I suspect that's the second-least embarrassing lie for them, after "it was an accident," which is getting really old.

ETA: It may actually have been sabotage, but they probably don't know that at this point.

 

[plague311]

Striking deep behind enemy lines is, while an excellent new development, not a "counteroffensive" nor otherwise necessarily "offensive" as such - it's merely disruptive, as any strike on a target is. It could be construed as preparing the battlefield for a future offense, but just as well as a way to diminish the enemy's offensive potential, hence as defensive in nature.

Is Ukraine attacking the Russians in an area that Russia took from them in hopes of destabilizing, slowing, or halting their attacks? Yes? Then it's a ******* counteroffensive. Christ. Is this even a nitpick? It's like you went as far out of your way as possible to frame it as negatively for Ukraine as possible.

I know, I know, I know. "wE arEn'T bEIng negATiVE, JuST Realists!!ONEELEVENTY"

Sweet.

What's happening in Kherson oblast on the West side of the river is encouraging, and more a case of preparing the battlefield. I don't see however that Ukraine has yet the capabilities for actual offensive maneuvre warfare beyond that side of the Dnipro: This would take plenty of certain kinds of equipment (tanks) with respective ammo, some aerial capabilities (helicopters, planes, ARM), and most importantly enough soldiers and officers trained in combined arms maneuvre warfare of that kind. They may over time succeed in pushing the Russians back East, even contest the city of Kherson, but I do not see Ukraine establishing a bridgehead on the East bank and moving offensively from there.

I would guess the main short-term goal is to demonstrate that Russia can not hope to be secure in the territories they think they control, and hand them some sort of tangible defeat to challenge morale further.

Neat.

 

[Jimbo07]

Then it's a ******* counteroffensive. Christ. Is this even a nitpick? It's like you went as far out of your way as possible to frame it as negatively for Ukraine as possible.

...

I know, I know, I know. "wE arEn'T bEIng negATiVE, JuST Realists!!ONEELEVENTY"

with apologies - The reports of Russia's defeat are greatly exaggerated.

On any given day, is an event a counterattack or counteroffensive? It seems like picking nits. In order to clarify, you might use an adjective like major counteroffensive... which we haven't seen, yet.

 

[Ziggurat]

Striking deep behind enemy lines is, while an excellent new development, not a "counteroffensive" nor otherwise necessarily "offensive" as such - it's merely disruptive, as any strike on a target is.

Is Ukraine attacking the Russians in an area that Russia took from them in hopes of destabilizing, slowing, or halting their attacks? Yes? Then it's a ******* counteroffensive. Christ. Is this even a nitpick? It's like you went as far out of your way as possible to frame it as negatively for Ukraine as possible.

I disagree, I think it's an important distinction. I would say a counteroffensive is where you're trying to retake territory you lost. And air strikes deep into Russian held territory, by themselves, aren't that.

I also don't think that's negative framing for Ukraine. Battlespace prep is important. There's no point in doing a counteroffensive before you're ready. And retaking territory with huge casualties now isn't as good as taking it later with minimal casualties.

Deep air strikes can really hurt the Russian war effort, in a way that taking some frontline ground doesn't necessarily do. Not only does it directly destroy Russian material and kill Russian personnel, it also forces adjustments. Russia has to redeploy resources to try to protect it. They have to pull back more material farther away from the front, making supply to the front harder. And it does so very efficiently. The fact that it's not a counter-offensive (again, using the definition that they aren't trying to retake territory) is significant, but it's not a mark against such deep strikes.

 

[plague311]

I didn't say the bombings were the counteroffensive. If that's what people took, then I'll definitely try to make myself clearer next time, not that it means much to me but obviously some here are very focused on the distinction.

When I look up "ukraine kherson" I saw multiple headlines referring to the counteroffensive. From all over the place, but if you guys say I'm wrong. **** it, it won't be the first and it's not going to be the last.

My bad, lesson learned. Hence why I don't comment and only read here.

ETA: I even included a thumbnail from ISW where they're calling it a counteroffensive in the area around Kherson. I seriously have to be missing something here. What is it? How would I have possibly known not to call it a counteroffensive when every news source I'm reading is calling it exactly that? Pretend I'm not in the military. What would a layman call it? Because I'm not seeing the words "battlefield prep".

 

[plague311]

with apologies - The reports of Russia's defeat are greatly exaggerated.

I don't know what this means. What Russia defeat? I'm seeing reports of supply lines being cut off, railways being destroyed, and transportation being extremely limited in Ukraine's counter....uhm, retaliation? I don't know now, what do we call it when they're attacking the areas around Kherson. I'm fine with being wrong, but I'm not going to use a 3 lines description whenever it should be talked about.

So...what is it then? Do I say "In Ukraine's Battlespace Prep"?

On any given day, is an event a counterattack or counteroffensive? It seems like picking nits. In order to clarify, you might use an adjective like major counteroffensive... which we haven't seen, yet.

I mean, if that's what needs to be said.

I said counteroffensive, is that still ok to describe what's happening around Kherson? What else do I call it? An attack? Squabble? One-sided bombing?

 

[Craig4]

I'm enjoying this immensely. They aren't allowed new weapons that can strike within Russia prime directly, but they can use their own stuff to hit things deep in Crimea, while not crossing that invisible line, and proving the same effect AS if they were hitting Russia prime directly.
As Mr. Burns would put it, "Excellent."

"...Smithers, bring me the Putin file".

I'm looking forward to something more substantial in Sevastopol than disrupting Navy Day. Something that detonates munition on a vessel would be ideal.