The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[dudalb]

From the above article on the Russian economy...


Just what are they going to build their own space station from, wax, tin foil and bailing wire?

It won't be no Babylon 5.

 

[dudalb]

Why bother when he's not aware of any "brutal, military campaign and repression" by the Third Reich?

Why bother with this guy anyway/
I remember his first WTF moment when, during those terrible wildfires California had a couple of years ago in which a whole town was wiped;the answer was for all the towns in California it build moats.......

 

[Andy_Ross]

Nobody knows how the battle would evolve, and how it would end, because the Russians are very determined too.

There is a danger of mutual destruction, which might extend far beyond Ukraine (and has actually already begun). And the Americans may have to deal with Taiwan too.

In addition, even if Ukraine was somehow able to conquer Crimea (for example, which seems unlikely), this would probably just lead to constant fighting between Kiev's central government and Crimean authorities and population.

It will evolve in to a rout for the Russians as they lose more men and equipment they can't replace.

 

[theprestige]

This is actually correct.

But I believe that, in this case, the leaders of Ukraine should renounce Crimea and eastern Donbass, and explain to the population why such a decision is actually good for them, protects them and even perhaps saves their lives, when the already long list of killed, injured and costly destructions in Ukraine becomes longer every day.

Having pro-Russian territories is actually not a present for Ukraine, because this leads to constant in-fighting and tensions. Without these territories, Ukraine could be more united, prosperous and happy.

Ukraine should also (in my opinion) be neutral, and become a kind of prosperous Switzerland of eastern Europe, benefitting from both Western technology and Russian oil and gas.

You make it sound like the citizens of war-torn Ukraine are too stupid to understand the options available to them, and make an informed decision to keep fighting.

You also make it sound like you favor appeasing terrorists.

What's wrong with fighting to stay free, if you prefer that to being a slave?

 

[Michel H]

It will evolve in to a rout for the Russians as they lose more men and equipment they can't replace.

They could use tactical nuclear weapons if they feel they are beginning to lose (after enormous destructions and killings on both sides, and worldwide economic damage).

And China could decide to attack Taiwan, to weaken the US and help Russia. The US population is already not very happy about high inflation.

 

[jimbob]

It looks as though the bridges over the Dnipro River are now only suitable for individuals not vehicles.

I guess it makes sense to let the Russians retreat and abandon their heavy equipment. I imagine that being sent back to the fight with older* equipment than they were forced to abandon would be quite corrosive to any unit's morale that they were included in.


*Newer units are getting worse kit, so it's not like the BEF after Dunkirk.

 

[Galaxie]

It looks as though the bridges over the Dnipro River are now only suitable for individuals not vehicles.

I guess it makes sense to let the Russians retreat and abandon their heavy equipment. I imagine that being sent back to the fight with older* equipment than they were forced to abandon would be quite corrosive to any unit's morale that they were included in.


*Newer units are getting worse kit, so it's not like the BEF after Dunkirk.

I think they would prefer to outright destroy the bridges, but, as far as I'm aware, HIMARS missiles aren't powerful enough for that.

 

[Oystein]

On German news: Berlin allows the sale of 100 new Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine.

According to this article, the timeline was this:
April - Ukraine asks the manufacturer, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW), whether they could order 100 Ph2000 directly from them
Without delay - KMW sent an offer.
Juli 11 - KMW submits a formal request to the German Ministry of Economics
Juli 13 - license to produce is granted
Without delay - production shall start

The order has a total money value of 1.7 billion Euros. It's not clear yet when the first Ph2000 will be delivered, and it is expected that the production of all 100 will take several years.
---
What this tells me is that a) Ukraine considers the Panzerhaubitze 2000 to be a design that works well against the Russians - that Ukraine was quite certain of this before they had any, and they haven't lost any of that confidence since getting and using a good handful of them. And b) that Ukraine, Germany and KMW expect Ukraine to survive a few years into the future and become a formidable force against Ruscist fever dreams.

---

In addition to the new Ph2000, Berlin has also green-lighted the export by KMW of 30 further Gepards to Ukraine, presumably from KMW's own stock (no new production here, obviously). "This export has has begun", according to a speaker for KMW.
I presume that Ukraine calculates that the Norwegian company that has started to produce fresh ammunitions for the Gepard will in due time produce enough to supply at least 50 Gepards in active combat zones.

 

[Andy_Ross]

On German news: Berlin allows the sale of 100 new Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine.

According to this article, the timeline was this:
April - Ukraine asks the manufacturer, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW), whether they could order 100 Ph2000 directly from them
Without delay - KMW sent an offer.
Juli 11 - KMW submits a formal request to the German Ministry of Economics
Juli 13 - license to produce is granted
Without delay - production shall start

The order has a total money value of 1.7 billion Euros. It's not clear yet when the first Ph2000 will be delivered, and it is expected that the production of all 100 will take several years.
---
What this tells me is that a) Ukraine considers the Panzerhaubitze 2000 to be a design that works well against the Russians - that Ukraine was quite certain of this before they had any, and they haven't lost any of that confidence since getting and using a good handful of them. And b) that Ukraine, Germany and KMW expect Ukraine to survive a few years into the future and become a formidable force against Ruscist fever dreams.

---

In addition to the new Ph2000, Berlin has also green-lighted the export by KMW of 30 further Gepards to Ukraine, presumably from KMW's own stock (no new production here, obviously). "This export has has begun", according to a speaker for KMW.
I presume that Ukraine calculates that the Norwegian company that has started to produce fresh ammunitions for the Gepard will in due time produce enough to supply at least 50 Gepards in active combat zones.

As well as being an AA weapon the Gepard is a good weapon against infantry and soft skin vehicles.

 

[Craig4]

This is actually correct.

But I believe that, in this case, the leaders of Ukraine should renounce Crimea and eastern Donbass, and explain to the population why such a decision is actually good for them, protects them and even perhaps saves their lives, when the already long list of killed, injured and costly destructions in Ukraine becomes longer every day.

Having pro-Russian territories is actually not a present for Ukraine, because this leads to constant in-fighting and tensions. Without these territories, Ukraine could be more united, prosperous and happy.

Ukraine should also (in my opinion) be neutral, and become a kind of prosperous Switzerland of eastern Europe, benefitting from both Western technology and Russian oil and gas.

Why? Losing Kherson could change everything about Russia's hold on Crimea. I think Ukraine is making a mistake encouraging Russians to retreat. They more Russians they kill the better. More dead Russians impacts support at home, hurts enemy morale and depresses recruitment. Every piece of equipment Ukraine can capture, bolsters their forces and depletes Russia. Let's see what happens after Ukraine takes Kherson.

 

[Jimbo07]

Let's see what happens after Ukraine takes Kherson.

If.

I'm encouraged by Russia's to-date garbage performance, but I've maintained a skepticism throughout. I hope Ukraine liberates Kherson, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

 

[theprestige]

If.

I'm encouraged by Russia's to-date garbage performance, but I've maintained a skepticism throughout. I hope Ukraine liberates Kherson, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Same here.

 

[Wildy]

My goal is certainly not to support what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine.

But you are arguing in support of what they're doing.

(and I won't disagree with you. Note, however, that Russia has an official policy of not attacking civilian targets.

That policy really worked well on Grozny. And Aleppo. And Atarib. Idlib. Mariupol. Bucha. Vinnytsia. Kramatorsk. Chernihiv. Kharkiv. Odessa. I could go on but there are far too many instances of that policy working.

I believe that the (simple) solution of this crisis is to accept that Crimea belongs to Russia, and that the two Donbass republics are independent (in addition to lifting sanctions) because this is what the local population wants.

So Ukraine would be required to cede land in the Donbass that was under their control at the time of this invasion despite the wishes of the population there?

When you adopt these important principles of self-determination, you also automatically protect Taiwan, which is currently threatened by mainland China, with a possibility of destruction of its computer chip industry, which would create an additional economic crisis when there is already a shortage.

Are all these separatist groups in China just allowed to declare independence? And does China have any right to stop them?

On German news: Berlin allows the sale of 100 new Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine.

But Germany bad. They should have predicted the war beforehand and had them ready to export months ago because they are the largest economy in Europe something something.

Zelenskyy is a native Russian speaker.

Except he's one of (((them))) and (((they))) don't want to allow the true heartland to be under the complete control of one power again. /S

 

[dudalb]

Russia does not delibertly attack Civilian Targets.
And if pigs had wings they could fly.
I know some will do the what about rouitne with the USA on this.
I can only say that ,tragically, the US has killed civilians. But I don't think they targeted them knowing and because they were civillians..which I think the Russians have done as part of a terror campaign.

 

[dudalb]

Kherson. Damn, another name familiar to World War 2 Eastfront buffs.

 

[theprestige]

Sometimes a legitimate military target is surrounded by civilians. Often, this in itself makes the target a war criminal. If the military value of striking the target is high enough, the anticipated collateral damage is morally justified. The US may well play fast and loose with this rule. But the military nature of the target is never really in question.

Russia cannot claim that fig leaf.

 

[arthwollipot]

But I believe that, in this case, the leaders of Ukraine should renounce Crimea and eastern Donbass, and explain to the population why such a decision is actually good for them, protects them and even perhaps saves their lives, when the already long list of killed, injured and costly destructions in Ukraine becomes longer every day.

You mean, give Putin exactly what he wants? Cave in and acquiesce to all of Russia's demands?

You know what happens when you give a bully what they want, right?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Western military sources say Ukraine’s campaign to retake the Kherson region is gathering pace after it destroyed a key bridge into the city with long-range artillery.

Thousands of Russian troops are now in danger of being cut off from the rest of the occupied territory in southern and eastern Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/bus...e2308421e03625cb4a227b&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Andy_Ross]

UK MOD says that Ukrainian forces have likely established a bridgehead south of the Ingulets River, which forms the northern boundary of Russian-occupied territory.

Kherson's Antonivskiy Bridge although it’s still standing is now “completely unusable” after damage from the rocket attacks.

Russia’s 49th Army stationed on the west bank of the Dnipro river “now looks highly vulnerable” and that the city of Kherson is now cut off from the rest of the territory controlled by Moscow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/bus...e2325ae4a3c80a9b778451&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Wildy]

I think that means the only solid crossing point is the dam at Kakhovka. If that's the case then there's going to be a lot of heavy fighting over there as both sides try to gain control of that crossing point.

If not, then there's a possibility that Russia will do what Ukraine was apparently supposed to do at the start of the war, destroy the dam flooding the area to deny passage.