The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Part 4

[Ziggurat]

Then Perun is an idiot. The US can't possibly deploy a full spectrum, totally integrated supreme battlespace instantaneously all at once. Sometimes the Marines are going to want to pop off with anti tank and anti air while they wait for the rest of the stuff to settle in and start getting busy.

Under what scenario would we possibly need to? When would we need to deploy marines instantly into an environment where they face heavy armor and close air support, but we can’t get aircraft carriers there at the same time or we don’t already have air bases in range? I can’t think of any. Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan would have qualified. If we were directly involved in Ukraine, it would not qualify.

The closest scenario I can think of would be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, where we need to deploy fast and hard and the enemy would have both heavy armor and close air support. But even there, it’s not marines we would need, but the Navy. Taiwan has enough boots on the ground, it’s additional naval and air assets to interdict Chinese forces before they even land that would be needed.

 

[Reformed Offlian]

T-62 tanks?

* Kennedy was president when the T-62 was introduced.
* They are really a modified T-55, which was introduced post- ww2
* Time to get some A-10 Warthogs over there.
* Any modern Anti Tank weapon will tear these apart.

(Since you mentioned the A-10)
115mm smoothbore go boom!

 

[Cosmic Yak]

Italy has also given MILAN to Ukraine, so apparently they are.

Was there a referendum?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Russian media is now warning that food insecurity will lead to cannibalism in Britain

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1529571798324498435

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Russian media is now warning that food insecurity will lead to cannibalism in Britain

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1529571798324498435

There is no cannibalism in the British Navy.
Absolutely none.
And when I say none, I mean there is a certain amount.
More than we are prepared to admit, but all new ratings are warned that if they wake up in the morning and find tooth marks at all anywhere on their bodies, they're to tell me immediately so that I can immediately take every measure to hush the whole thing up.
And, finally, necrophilia is right out.

 

[Drewbot]

There isn't even a link the the Russian article in that Cannibalism tweet.

 

[Drewbot]

There is no cannibalism in the British Navy.
Absolutely none.
And when I say none, I mean there is a certain amount.
More than we are prepared to admit, but all new ratings are warned that if they wake up in the morning and find tooth marks at all anywhere on their bodies, they're to tell me immediately so that I can immediately take every measure to hush the whole thing up.
And, finally, necrophilia is right out.

Insert the GIF of the old people clapping.

 

[jimbob]

First, Perun is not an idiot, which you'd know if you watched his videos. Second, please explain the scenario you posit where the US sends in ground troops without first establishing air supremacy. Note that a single carrier battle group significantly overmatches the air forces of nearly every potential US adversary.

Additionally, as Perun also explains, Stinger is obsolete, nearing the end of its storage life, and in need of replacement. But the US military is in no rush to adopt a successor, such as the UK's Starstreak, because of the perceived lack of need.

I suspect that the issue of drones should start to concentrate minds.

 

[Stellafane]

Russian media is now warning that food insecurity will lead to cannibalism in Britain

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1529571798324498435

Should make for an interesting upcoming season of The Great British Bake Off. When you get eliminated you don't simply go home, you make an encore appearance on next week's menu.

 

[Mike!]

These cannibalism jokes are completely without taste.
.......................................Signed, The Donner Party

 

[Jimbo07]

These cannibalism jokes are completely without taste...

Especially if you have a poor cook!

 

[Ziggurat]

I suspect that the issue of drones should start to concentrate minds.

Stinger seems overkill for most drones. You are correct that anti-drone weapons are a looming need. There's a number of possible solutions in the works, such as:
https://www.asme.org/topics-resources/content/laser-weapon-to-shoot-down-drones

 

[crescent]

I found this Github thing a few days ago. It's got lots of charts comparing losses in the war.

Russia/Ukraine War Charts

Russia has certainly churned through a lot of equipment in the past week.

Nothing else for me to add, just another interesting information source that ISFers might find interesting.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to avoiding a global food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...8fadf8b622de4ef91228ca&pinned_post_type=share

 

[shemp]

There is no cannibalism in the British Navy.
Absolutely none.
And when I say none, I mean there is a certain amount.
More than we are prepared to admit, but all new ratings are warned that if they wake up in the morning and find tooth marks at all anywhere on their bodies, they're to tell me immediately so that I can immediately take every measure to hush the whole thing up.
And, finally, necrophilia is right out.

And that's only Monty Python's third best cannibalism sketch!

 

[shemp]

Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to avoiding a global food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...8fadf8b622de4ef91228ca&pinned_post_type=share

Well, I certainly don't want to be paying $7 for a loaf of bread or a box of cereal! Abandon Ukraine!

 

[The Don]

According to the BBC, the messaging from the Ukrainian government has taken a turn towards being more pessimistic (and perhaps more realistic )

Speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme, he says the Ukrainian messaging has changed in recent weeks – with optimism over the situation in the Donbas giving way to a tone that’s “a bit more pessimistic – a bit more realistic maybe”.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...906edcb622de4ef912291c&pinned_post_type=share

The BBC are saying that after they have finished in Donbas, then the Russians will switch to Kharkiv. IIRC a couple of months ago I linked to a CNN video where a retired US general said it was inevitable that Russia would seize, and hold, everything East of the Dnieper river. At the time I thought he was being ridiculously pessimistic, now I'm not so sure.

For all the talk of Russia taking heavy casualties, having low morale and having to resort to using ancient equipment, they seem to be advancing inexorably. Maybe their losses are being vastly overestimated, maybe their reserves run far, far deeper than first assumed, maybe they're much better at regrouping and re-equipping units or a combination of all three, but they seem to be getting more, not less, effective.

 

[Lplus]

According to the BBC, the messaging from the Ukrainian government has taken a turn towards being more pessimistic (and perhaps more realistic )



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...906edcb622de4ef912291c&pinned_post_type=share

The BBC are saying that after they have finished in Donbas, then the Russians will switch to Kharkiv. IIRC a couple of months ago I linked to a CNN video where a retired US general said it was inevitable that Russia would seize, and hold, everything East of the Dnieper river. At the time I thought he was being ridiculously pessimistic, now I'm not so sure.

For all the talk of Russia taking heavy casualties, having low morale and having to resort to using ancient equipment, they seem to be advancing inexorably. Maybe their losses are being vastly overestimated, maybe their reserves run far, far deeper than first assumed, maybe they're much better at regrouping and re-equipping units or a combination of all three, but they seem to be getting more, not less, effective.

Possibly, though getting "more realistic" might also include giving up the Donbas with a view to hardening resistance further west. Are the Ukrainians giving up land they think already lost, or are they being forced back despite their every effort?

 

[Aridas]

According to the BBC, the messaging from the Ukrainian government has taken a turn towards being more pessimistic (and perhaps more realistic )



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...906edcb622de4ef912291c&pinned_post_type=share

The BBC are saying that after they have finished in Donbas, then the Russians will switch to Kharkiv. IIRC a couple of months ago I linked to a CNN video where a retired US general said it was inevitable that Russia would seize, and hold, everything East of the Dnieper river. At the time I thought he was being ridiculously pessimistic, now I'm not so sure.

For all the talk of Russia taking heavy casualties, having low morale and having to resort to using ancient equipment, they seem to be advancing inexorably. Maybe their losses are being vastly overestimated, maybe their reserves run far, far deeper than first assumed, maybe they're much better at regrouping and re-equipping units or a combination of all three, but they seem to be getting more, not less, effective.

It's worth remembering that, while Russia is taking heavy casualties, has low morale, and is increasingly using older equipment, what they brought/conscripted certainly is quite significant. They're moving forward at the moment, yes. It would actually be more surprising if Severodonetsk didn't fall eventually, honestly, given the location. Lysychansk is notably less likely, given that it's on the other side of the river, but still possible. Given the way things have been going, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are highly unlikely to end up falling, though.

 

[The Don]

It's worth remembering that, while Russia is taking heavy casualties, has low morale, and is increasingly using older equipment, what they brought/conscripted certainly is quite significant.

Well that's certainly what were being told, but the advancing Russian forces seem to contradict that somewhat. If morale is so low, why are they still pressing forward ? If casualties are so high, how are they still gaining ground ? If the equipment is so bad and so old, why aren't they slowing down?

I've been watching the news stories and I understand why we in the UK have been focusing on the Ukrainians gallant defence but it does mean that there's a risk that we all start to believe the propaganda. As long as the "real" decisions are made based on accurate information then I don't have too much of a problem with better news being sent out for public consumption. During the Battle of Britain, pilots' claims of German planes shot down were publicised despite being greatly overinflated. British military planning OTOH was based on accurate figures. The Germans OTOH allegedly took their pilots' claims at face value and therefore fatally underestimated Fighter Command's strength.

They're moving forward at the moment, yes. It would actually be more surprising if Severodonetsk didn't fall eventually, honestly, given the location. Lysychansk is notably less likely, given that it's on the other side of the river, but still possible. Given the way things have been going, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are highly unlikely to end up falling, though.

I really hope that this is the case. My fear is that the Russians will reopen another front near Kharkiv and that the forces released from Mariupol will press up from the South.

edited to add....

From ISW's assessment from yesterday:

Russian forces have made several gains in the past week, but their offensive operations remain slow. Russian forces are heavily degraded and will struggle to replace further losses.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26

I'll bow to their greater access to intelligence and their far superior knowledge, but if they're so heavily degraded, how come their advances seem to be accelerating ?