The Roe Countdown

[angrysoba]

Stepping back the sadtragic thing is if you put a gun to my head and made me swear how much I think the Right actually cares about abortion in the abstract I don't know what my answer would be. Do they really hate it or do they just hate it because the liberals like it. Strip away the hate and the trolling and the nihilism and is there any actual opinion, even a wrong one, at the core? I dunno. I honestly don't anymore.

Do they hate women for getting abortions or hate abortions because women get them? Which is the tail and which is the dog? I dunno. One. The other. Both. Neither. Both in some weird mobius strip of each one feeding the other maybe. I honestly don't know.

If you mean the Supreme Court justices, it is almost certainly ideological. They are religious fanatics after all and they have been following a decades-long game plan.

If it’s Trump, obviously he doesn’t care in the slightest.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I notice we're back to magically only having one conservative on the board again.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I notice we're back to magically only having one conservative on the board again.

I'm seeing a lot of "mainstream" conservative pundits expressing disbelief that the obviously cruel things that are 100% going to happen are actually going to happen now, pretending like they don't know the vicious little ghouls they decided to get into bed with decades ago.

It's going to be a tedious cycle of assurances that these freaks aren't going to do the things they clearly want to do, like eliminate gay rights and gay marriage, criminalize miscarriages, criminalize contraception, or allow pregnant people to die for want of proper medical care, then pretend to be flabbergasted when these things happen.

It's going to be exhausting.


ETA: Megan McArdle talk to a single public defender for 5 minutes 2022 challenge:

Yes, I think there's a lot to work out, but in practice, I'm skeptical that a lot of prosecutors are going to want to probe into a grieving woman's miscarriage; the optics are horrific.

https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1522237698005774337

The world is not ready for the dip-**** takes that are coming soon from "reasonable" conservatives.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'm just amazed we're 27 pages in and we haven't been told once we're being "dramatic" about anything.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I'm just amazed we're 27 pages in and we haven't been told once we're being "dramatic" about anything.

I think you're being pretty dramatic to the mere suggestion that the Democratic party abandon a losing strategy before it's too late, if that helps.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I think you're being pretty dramatic to the mere suggestion that the Democratic party abandon a losing strategy before it's too late, if that helps.

*Sarcastically raises his glass* And here's to your side, the side that is always right because it never actually gets to a place where it can do anything so it can never let you down.

 

[cosmicaug]

Yes, I suppose it is worth pointing out that this once in a lifetime rollback of civil rights is occurring while Democrats have nominal control of the government.

I can't wait until Republicans control everything & restore civility to politics. Everything will be OK, then.

 

[JoeMorgue]

But back on topic.

This is kind of morbid but it's something that's been on my mind.

It's not the 1920s anymore. Are we really going to have to go back to "back alley" abortions or are undergound, illegal abortions going to be more medical?

Now to be clear I do not want to downplay this, but I am wondering if a safe, illegal abortion is going to be easier to find than it was in the pre-Roe V Wade past.

Again to clarify not saying that makes it better, just... thinking out loud.

 

[Warp12]

I'm just amazed we're 27 pages in and we haven't been told once we're being "dramatic" about anything.

Would it matter?

 

[BobTheCoward]

I'm seeing a lot of "mainstream" conservative pundits expressing disbelief that the obviously cruel things that are 100% going to happen are actually going to happen now, pretending like they don't know the vicious little ghouls they decided to get into bed with decades ago.

It's going to be a tedious cycle of assurances that these freaks aren't going to do the things they clearly want to do, like eliminate gay rights and gay marriage, criminalize miscarriages, criminalize contraception, or allow pregnant people to die for want of proper medical care, then pretend to be flabbergasted when these things happen.

It's going to be exhausting.


ETA: Megan McArdle talk to a single public defender for 5 minutes 2022 challenge:



https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1522237698005774337

The world is not ready for the dip-**** takes that are coming soon from "reasonable" conservatives.

What an awful argument by McArdle.

My first concern with an unjust law isn't that a prosecutor charges me. It is the cops and jailors that are my first concern.

It is a classic libertarian argument is that every law is a guarantee that violence will eventually be used to enforce it.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

I can't wait until Republicans control everything & restore civility to politics. Everything will be OK, then.

I'm just pointing out that the current version of Democrats "winning" includes having a sizeable coalition of party members who are opposed to a variety of liberal issues. This is a recurring problem that explains that, while Republicans seem to be able to project power while in the minority, Democrats can't seem to accomplish much even when they are in control.

They've repositioned themselves, since the 90's at the latest, as a Conservative-lite party, so it should be no surprise that the Overton window in this country steadily tracks right.

 

[TurkeysGhost]

But back on topic.

This is kind of morbid but it's something that's been on my mind.

It's not the 1920s anymore. Are we really going to have to go back to "back alley" abortions or are undergound, illegal abortions going to be more medical?

Now to be clear I do not want to downplay this, but I am wondering if a safe, illegal abortion is going to be easier to find than it was in the pre-Roe V Wade past.

Again to clarify not saying that makes it better, just... thinking out loud.

For earlier term, the abortion pill is probably what you'd expect which is certainly a big step up in safety compared to the ole coat hanger.

Anyone showing up to an ER with complications from this (which do occasionally happen) is likely going to be interrogated by the cops and arrested. Of course, ordinary miscarriages will be suspicious too, so anyone grieving the loss of a wanted pregnancy can look forward to being accused of being a baby-killer by the pigs.

I think a bigger impact is that people with wanted pregnancies are going to have their options limited if they start to miscarry. They aren't going to be planning to flee out of state like someone wanting to abort will, and they may find themselves stuck in some hospital with an emergency condition in which doctors cannot act appropriately because of these laws. Pregnant people are absolutely going to die or needlessly suffer horribly because doctors refuse to deal with a variety of complicated miscarriages appropriately.

 

[BobTheCoward]

They've repositioned themselves, since the 90's at the latest, as a Conservative-lite party, so it should be no surprise that the Overton window in this country steadily tracks right.

On what subject? Not health, not sexuality, not policing
...

 

[BobTheCoward]

Of course loving v Virginia was wrongly decided. Both Pro choice and gay marriage have much better constitutional arguments than Loving.

 

[cosmicaug]

But back on topic.

This is kind of morbid but it's something that's been on my mind.

It's not the 1920s anymore. Are we really going to have to go back to "back alley" abortions or are undergound, illegal abortions going to be more medical?

Now to be clear I do not want to downplay this, but I am wondering if a safe, illegal abortion is going to be easier to find than it was in the pre-Roe V Wade past.

Again to clarify not saying that makes it better, just... thinking out loud.

Yes. The availability of effective medications will make it much better (specially if you have the means and have ready access to information).

 

[Meadmaker]

But back on topic.

This is kind of morbid but it's something that's been on my mind.

It's not the 1920s anymore. Are we really going to have to go back to "back alley" abortions or are undergound, illegal abortions going to be more medical?

Now to be clear I do not want to downplay this, but I am wondering if a safe, illegal abortion is going to be easier to find than it was in the pre-Roe V Wade past.

Again to clarify not saying that makes it better, just... thinking out loud.

Yes. Illegal abortions will be safer and easier to find than in the old days. For a couple of reasons.

First, more states will have legal abortions, so you can get to them more easily.

Second, transportation costs are lower, so, likewise, getting to them will be easier.

Third, in today's world, the stigma associated with pregnancy has gotten to be very close to zero. In the days you were talking about, there was still this idea that sex outside of marriage was sinful. The number of people who say that is much, much, smaller today, and the ones who do are busy coming up with reasons why, in their case, it's not all that sinful. As a consequence, there will be more people willing to help. Some friends of mine last year were already talking about setting up "underground railroads", to help abortion seekers. Basically, what they meant was providing temporary housing and transportation for poor women who wanted to leave their state to get an abortion in another state where it's legal. I'm sure those plans are being accelerated today.

Finally, technology has advanced so that if someone is performing abortions in their basement with the blinds drawn, it's easier to keep things sterile and to monitor the patient for signs of trauma that need medical care beyond what the abortion provider can give.

Sadly, there will be women, especially high school aged women, who get pregnant and don't know how to avail themselves of these clandestine resources, so the "back alley" abortions won't disappear completely. After all, they still occur today very rarely, even with abortion legal. In those states where it's illegal, I'm sure the rate will go up. Young people often take matters into their own hands before seeking outside help.

ETA: And, I forgot about the availability of pharmaceutical abortifacients, i.e. "abortion pills". People will be willing to stock those things and give them to people in need.

 

[cosmicaug]

Of course loving v Virginia was wrongly decided. Both Pro choice and gay marriage have much better constitutional arguments than Loving.

How do you figure this? Not sure if sarcastic.

 

[BobTheCoward]

How do you figure this? Not sure if sarcastic.

There isn't really evidence at time of the 14th amendment that gay marriage was not protected....there is very strong evidence....such as voting for the 14th amendment by people who backed anti miscegenation laws, that interracial marriage was not regarded as falling under the equality portion of the 14th

It is obvious....two men can marry each other, but only if they are the same race.

 

[Delphic Oracle]

The problem still remains that deaths will occur when complications arise and the person does not seek medical treatment for fear of prosecution.

The closest I've ever been to this issue was being the person texting all night and day through a weekend of scary heavy bleeding with the car keys on standby if I didn't get a reply within 15 minutes.

I can't imagine having been her. I can't imagine having been her with the added worry of criminal prosecution.

 

[Random]

I'm just pointing out that the current version of Democrats "winning" includes having a sizeable coalition of party members who are opposed to a variety of liberal issues. This is a recurring problem that explains that, while Republicans seem to be able to project power while in the minority, Democrats can't seem to accomplish much even when they are in control.

They've repositioned themselves, since the 90's at the latest, as a Conservative-lite party, so it should be no surprise that the Overton window in this country steadily tracks right.

It's the campaign funding. Democrats in the 1990's started to walk away from popular economic policies in order to attract wealthy donors, and compete with the pro-business GOP fundraising. The more this happened, the more we had to lean on "being not as bad as Republicans". As we did that, the economic differences between the Democrats and the Republicans drew fuzzier, and the GOP found social wedge issues to be more effective, and relied on them more and more.

After a few decades of that, we have a GOP that's gone mental, and a Democratic Party that is more interested in fundraising for elections than winning elections, and way more interested in either of those than passing any kind of liberal policies...