AGP
I'm sure it exists. But I keep hearing, without citation, that the vast majority of trans-women are AGP.
I don't hear that, although I think I know the comments that you are referring to. What I hear is that the very demanding people, unwilling to compromise, who insist on occupying women's spaces and roles, are dominated by autogynephiles.
That's not the same thing.
Are the comments correct? Are the autogynephiles really driving that bus? I wouldn't say it has been proven, but the evidence for it is significantly greater than zero.
There was even an argument that trans athletes were competing as women in order to satisfy their AGP. That's just weird.
Because? Once again, I've read the same comments, and some of them have not been expressed very articulately, but I think I would take something different from the arguments. Arguments about motivation....why, because, in order,...are rarely straightforward. Human motivation is often confused and complicated, and individuals are not even always aware of their own motivation. Therefore, it's hard to say that trans athletes compete as women in order to satisfy AGP. Their actual motivations may be much more complicated than that. However, if someone was both AGP and athletic, competing as a woman would definitely be something that really feeds that fantasy.
Part of the huge logic hole in the idea is the assertion (cited many threads ago) that a male being more aroused in fantasies envisioning themselves as female are evidence of AGP. That's just such mindbogglingly bad logic. Because a non-AGP dysphoric male would also logically have a greater response viewing themselfs as female. Duh.
Thise fantasies are not evidence of AGP. They're the definition of AGP.
A non-AGP dysphoric male envisions a certain kind of sex or a certain kind of partner. An AGP male envisions himself as a woman, and that is the fantasy. If the fantasy is particularly strong, it creates dysphoria.
Blanchard, who invented the term, describes the difference in detail here:
https://quillette.com/2019/11/06/what-is-autogynephilia-an-interview-with-dr-ray-blanchard/
(ETA: If you don't want to read the whole interview, find the term "Moser" in the text. That section describes the difference between AGP and other things that could be mistaken for AGP.)
The existence of AGP should not be controversial. It clearly exists, and I was the one (I don't think I was the only one) who brought up the argument. Where there could be some controversy is to what extent AGP contributes to a desire to live as a woman and/or medically transition.
The difference between what you are describing for non-AGP males is that the focus of the fantasy is the sex, or the partner. It is possible that whatever they want to do requires a female body, so that might be incorporated into the fantasy. For AGP, the fantasy IS the body, or the identity. Being the woman is the key element.
Sports
Interestingly, sports are where there is a lot of common ground. Even ST recognizes that someone self-declaring their gender causes issue with women's sports. Personally, I think that sports default to sex segregation, but individual cases can and should be evaluated for exceptions. OF course the problem is that that requires judgment which is hard to write into a rule or a law. Meadmaker referred to this and concluded that the rule had to be by sex. My conclusion is that since no rule can be written...don't try to write one and allow judgment by whoever the governing body is of that sport.
But what do governing bodies do? How do they govern? They write laws. This isn't criminal or civil legislation, but it's rules for who may participate in the private activity overseen by the government body. So, saying "allow judgement by the governing body", is just saying who writes the rule.
Unless you are saying that the rule ought to be, "In cases of biological males who wish to compete as females, they may petition the Eligibility Committee who will make the determination." Well, if you don't provide guidance, in the form of criteria, to the Eligibility Committee, I would foresee constant controversy over their judgement. I don't see it as workable.