The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Ryokan]

There is a bit of a shift. The strange situation is that Finnish nationalists/racists are pro-Russia.

Nationalists and racists all over Europe are pro-Russia.

 

[Michel H]

In Ukraine's situation, it would typically be advantageous to keep your tanks concealed in "hull-down" positions at key points, moving them only at night or during air cover.

Related to this, word from Ukrainian forces is that ambushes against Russian armor columns with Javelin missiles have been quite effective.

This seems more powerful than Molotov cocktails (see https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...make-homemade-petrol-bombs-district-Kyiv.html).

Do you have a link about this?

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

6,500 tanks? That number seems highly suspect, the US Army only operates about 4,000 M1 Abrams. We also have Strykers that in some configurations might be considered a light tank.

I'm guessing they are camouflaged and hidden away somewhere to guard against air strikes.

I think that the figure of 6,500 tanks is the number of tanks that the USSR's army had staged in Ukraine at the time the USSR broke up. The Wikipedia article credits Ukraine with having 2 armored and 13 mechanized brigades (plus some air assault and mountain brigades), which means that there are probably fewer than 1,000 tanks in service.

 

[carlosy]

It's been said that radiation has increased rapidly at Chernobyl, now showing 65500 nSv/h.

Not sure what the values were before:
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/platform/sse_ecocentre

 

[dudalb]

Russia has proposed talks in Minsk with the Ukrainian leadership.

A bit of history:

In the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, the Hungarian defense minister was invited to meet with the Soviets to coordinate the withdrawal of Soviet troops. When he and his delegation arrived, they were arrested. The Soviets had made a bad-faith promise of negotiations as a means to lure the Defense minister and thereby decapitate the Hungarian military.




Belarus is not a neutral actor in this war, they are a strong Russian ally. The Russian troops currently fighting in the outskirts of Kiev came there via Belarus and without transit through Belarus the Russian troops would have had a much longer and vastly more difficult slog to get to Kiev. Minsk is not a safe neutral place to conduct negotiations.

So the Ukrainians need to assume that Russian efforts at negotiation are bad faith, that anyone sent by the Ukrainians to Minsk will be arrested as a means to reduce and eliminate Ukrainian leadership. That's what the Russians do.

I don't disagree, but, frankly, I think Putin's record alone shows he is not to be trusted.

 

[dudalb]

It's been said that radiation has increased rapidly at Chernobyl, now showing 65500 nSv/h.

Not sure what the values were before:
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/platform/sse_ecocentre

Wonder what the hell happened.

 

[Ryokan]

It's been said that radiation has increased rapidly at Chernobyl, now showing 65500 nSv/h.

Not sure what the values were before:
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/platform/sse_ecocentre

I heard the explanation is radioactive dust being kicked up by troops and tanks moving through the area, and that the values are still so low there is no health danger.

 

[dudalb]

Nationalists and racists all over Europe are pro-Russia.

True.
But Putin is getting some support from the far left. Useful idiots come in all political flavors.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

It's been said that radiation has increased rapidly at Chernobyl, now showing 65500 nSv/h.

Not sure what the values were before:
https://www.saveecobot.com/en/platform/sse_ecocentre

Not great. Not terrible.

 

[dudalb]

I think that the figure of 6,500 tanks is the number of tanks that the USSR's army had staged in Ukraine at the time the USSR broke up. The Wikipedia article credits Ukraine with having 2 armored and 13 mechanized brigades (plus some air assault and mountain brigades), which means that there are probably fewer than 1,000 tanks in service.

There is some speculation that the troops being sent in first are the new recruits, as cannon fodder and the better units are being kept in reserve.

 

[crescent]

This all has the aura of being one of those things where, in a year or two, all the politicians will be saying something like "In retrospect, we should have done more at the time". And right now, they know that's what they'll be saying in a year or two.

But that's not enough to get them to actually do the things right now.

Like they'll get them off the SWIFT banking network - eventually, once Russia has had time to prepare for it. Maybe someday they'll get around to sanctioning Belarus too.

Then there's this:

Head of German Federal Intelligence Service was evacuated from #Ukraine by a special force and is on its way to Poland right now. German media says he was "surprised" by the Russian invasion Thursday morning. Wow. Just wow.

 

[Galaxie]

This seems more powerful than Molotov cocktails (see https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...make-homemade-petrol-bombs-district-Kyiv.html).

Do you have a link about this?

It's hard to find the tweets once they slip off the live feed, but:
https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1497228577720438788?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497228577720438788%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_9a4f9026-9653-11ec-be24-fe996f7c4742%2F0
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1496856597418725376
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3411722-ukraine-uses-javelins-against-russian-tanks-in-sumy-region.html
https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1496126173046267906

 

[dudalb]

Or Russia starts indiscriminately bombing population centers. Not sure Putin will go there or not.

OH, I think PUtin will go there, though, irony is that ruined buildings often make better defensive positions then intact buildings.
St Lo and Cassino are good examples of this.

 

[Galaxie]

Rumors flying that two Romanian and Japanese ships were hit by Russian weapons in the Black Sea

 

[Tero]

Nationalists and racists all over Europe are pro-Russia.

Sure, but it's still strange. My generation had dads fighting Russia. My dad had been allowed to finish high school and was in the 3 month basic training when the war ended. The communists were the only pronRussians 1945-1980.

 

[Aridas]

Nationalists and racists all over Europe are pro-Russia.

Authoritarians around the world tend to be more pro-Russia.

 

[theprestige]

Issuing small arms to civilians and urging them to engage in insurgency seems like an invitation for Putin to start openly shelling civilian areas without having to worry about war crimes.

Either muster up at least a nominally-uniformed militia at least nominally under the Ukrainian military chain of command, or secure the refugee status of your civilians and do what you can to help them leave the area or shelter safely in place without becoming legitimate military targets.

It's kind of hard to ding Putin for firing into apartment blocks if you've just spent the past 24-48 hours doing everything you can to get the civilian residents of those blocks to join the fight.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Authoritarians around the world tend to be more pro-Russia.

If you reduce the fraction enough it always gets us back to "Authoritarians love other Authoritarians."

 

[JoeMorgue]

Issuing small arms to civilians and urging them to engage in insurgency seems like an invitation for Putin to start openly shelling civilian areas without having to worry about war crimes.

Either muster up at least a nominally-uniformed militia at least nominally under the Ukrainian military chain of command, or secure the refugee status of your civilians and do what you can to help them leave the area or shelter safely in place without becoming legitimate military targets.

It's kind of hard to ding Putin for firing into apartment blocks if you've just spent the past 24-48 hours doing everything you can to get the civilian residents of those blocks to join the fight.

"If you pick up that weapon I'll shoot you. I mean I'll shoot you anyway, but if you pick up the weapon I'll pretend like I have the moral high ground when I do it."

 

[alfaniner]

I find it odd that all men 18-60 are prevented from leaving Ukraine. I'd surely be ready to defend my country, but I'm not sure I'd like to be basically drafted at the age of 59.