The Russian Invasion of the Ukraine.

[Arcade22]

bio-cosmic....

Putin has apparently spent much of the recent years under social isolation in an attempt to prevent covid infection. It's not difficult to imagine him being snowed in and spending time alone reading nonsense like this.

Who knows, he might believe ancient Slavs were actually akin to "Aryan" aliens and their persecutors throughout all of history have actually been controlled by reptilian aliens with a grudge.

 

[dudalb]

Cold War 2 has begun.
I think that it has finally set in that you simply cannot trust Putin, that although clever he is basically irrational and meglomaniac in his aims, and you just cannot do business with him.
I really think Russia will be something of a pariah state until Putin's demise.

derail into cold vs hot war moved to here

Posted By: jimbob

 

[Andy_Ross]

A thread bringing together posts byGOP officials using their elected office to attack their own country during a crisis.

https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1496463124563693570

 

[dudalb]

Putin has apparently spent much of the recent years under social isolation in an attempt to prevent covid infection. It's not difficult to imagine him being snowed in and spending time alone reading nonsense like this.

Who knows, he might believe ancient Slavs were actually akin to "Aryan" aliens and their persecutors throughout all of history have actually been controlled by reptilian aliens with a grudge.

Actually the isolation begun before Covid.
But the child ain't right.....just see that footage of him berating one of his ministers.
Let's face it, the guy has gone bonkers.

 

[jimbob]

Actually the isolation begun before Covid.
But the child ain't right.....just see that footage of him berating one of his ministers.
Let's face it, the guy has gone bonkers.

If you were an advisor/minister of his, would you tell him that one of his plans was a bad idea?

I'd imagine you'd then expect to experience defenestration first hand.

He's probably at the stage where he's started to believe his own propaganda.

 

[Meadmaker]

It is possible to use rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles in cities too.

Why are specialized anti-tank units of the Ukrainian military apparently not defending the capital Kiev against these incoming armoured vehicles, using possibly modern weapons supplied recently by the U.S. and the U.K. ?

Taking a well-deserved vacation in Crimea? Is it the best time?

During the battle of Berlin in 1945, the Nazis used 36 divisions, 767,000 soldiers, 1500 armoured vehicles, 2200 aircraft, and 9300 artillery pieces, and were able to resist for 16 days (they had of course been weakened by their defeats elsewhere), see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Berlin.

Being obsessed with defending Donbass and neglecting the capital with all the official buildings doesn't seem to be the best strategic choice when you are dealing with an adversary suspected of seeking regime change.

I don't know the right thing to do.

The way I see it, though, Ukraine is doomed, militarily. Their forces cannot stop Russia, and no other nation is going to step in and save them. It seems certain that the Russians will depose the current regime in Ukraine and replace them with Russian puppets.

Everything going on at this point has to be the long game. What actions now, followed by what actions for resistance forces after Ukraine is occupied, has the best chance of ultimately throwing the Russians out eventuall? Meanwhile, minimizing casualties and destruction at the moment would be nice.

Inflicting maximum pain using the most powerful possible, but ultimately doomed, resistance might not be the best way to go. It seems to me the best way to go is to make a show of force so that the people know that the government is serious, and then dig in and make it painful for the Russians to stay.

To put it differently, it's impossible to defeat the tanks, so don't fight the tanks. Inflicting lots of casualties before losing isn't the same as winning. It might be that those modern anti-tank weapons can be concealed. Knocking off one Russian tank six months from now might be more effective than knocking one out today.

Is that what they are thinking? I don't have the foggiest idea. Guerrilla warfare, resistance fighting, and the intersection of the same with international politics are all way above my pay grade. I just know that going head to head with a more powerful army is a good way to lose forces for no effect.

 

[timhau]

Actually the isolation begun before Covid.
But the child ain't right.....just see that footage of him berating one of his ministers.
Let's face it, the guy has gone bonkers.

Usually in criminal organizations, when the Head Honcho goes nuts, his days are numbered because that is bad for business.

 

[David RP]

Sounds Like Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
just threatened Finland with reprisals if they join Nato

 

[Cainkane1]

Despite the surprising resistance by the Ukrainians They will be conquered and absorbed by the Russians with the free world doing not one thing about it.

 

[dudalb]

If you were an advisor/minister of his, would you tell him that one of his plans was a bad idea?

I'd imagine you'd then expect to experience defenestration first hand.

He's probably at the stage where he's started to believe his own propaganda.

He is well beyond that stage.
The US Intelligence community's profile of Putin got leaked, and , although it uses more measured language , pretty much says he is deranged.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Despite the surprising resistance by the Ukrainians They will be conquered and absorbed by the Russians with the free world doing not one thing about it.

Except for all the the things they did about it

 

[dudalb]

Usually in criminal organizations, when the Head Honcho goes nuts, his days are numbered because that is bad for business.

That might be part of the strategy with the sanctions, make the other oligarchs relize that supporting Putin is going to cost them a lot of money.

 

[Arcade22]

Sounds Like Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
just threatened Finland with reprisals if they join Nato

One significant and troubling lie that the Kremlin repeats is that Finland has "promised" to never join NATO. In the real world Finland has since the end of the Cold War explicitly and publicly argued that they are free to choose to join any military alliance they want. Russian threats only make them more likely to join, as does the fact that Russians lie about what they say.

Of course ignoring reality has never been difficult for these people.

 

[dudalb]

Despite the surprising resistance by the Ukrainians They will be conquered and absorbed by the Russians with the free world doing not one thing about it.

You want to send in troops?
And I don't think the Ukrainians will be easy to be absorbed.

 

[dudalb]

Seems a tad warmer than the last one.

At least with the SOviets there was a certain rationality, but that seems to have vanished with Putin.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Any major military action won't last much longer than 4 days, by then the forces will be exhausted and in need of rat and vehicle refit and recovery.
Neither side has big enough reserves to replace the front line units to keep the attack going at any kind of intensity m

 

[dudalb]

One significant and troubling lie that the Kremlin repeats is that Finland has "promised" to never join NATO. In the real world Finland has since the end of the Cold War explicitly and publicly argued that they are free to choose to join any military alliance they want. Russian threats only make them more likely to join, as does the fact that Russians lie about what they say.

Of course ignoring reality has never been difficult for these people.

I suspect that Finland will now be more anxious to join.

 

[kookbreaker]

Seems the rouble has collapsed a bit. Shame most of the oligarchs keep their wealth out of Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...t-collapse-invasion-ukraine-fiancial-meltdown

 

[crescent]

Russia has proposed talks in Minsk with the Ukrainian leadership.

A bit of history:

In the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, the Hungarian defense minister was invited to meet with the Soviets to coordinate the withdrawal of Soviet troops. When he and his delegation arrived, they were arrested. The Soviets had made a bad-faith promise of negotiations as a means to lure the Defense minister and thereby decapitate the Hungarian military.

On 3 November, a Hungarian delegation led by Defence Minister Pál Maléter was invited to attend negotiations on Soviet withdrawal at the Soviet Military Command at Tököl, near Budapest. At around midnight that evening, General Ivan Serov, Chief of the Soviet Security Police (KGB) ordered the arrest of the Hungarian delegation,[137] and the next day, the Soviet army again attacked Budapest.[138]

Belarus is not a neutral actor in this war, they are a strong Russian ally. The Russian troops currently fighting in the outskirts of Kiev came there via Belarus and without transit through Belarus the Russian troops would have had a much longer and vastly more difficult slog to get to Kiev. Minsk is not a safe neutral place to conduct negotiations.

So the Ukrainians need to assume that Russian efforts at negotiation are bad faith, that anyone sent by the Ukrainians to Minsk will be arrested as a means to reduce and eliminate Ukrainian leadership. That's what the Russians do.

 

[Planigale]

This is not true always. In my profession (nurse, long term care), I observe frequently that there can be a lot of dignity in death, especially when the human has decided that it is best do die now or soon than to go on living like this.


So will be the suppression and dictatorship that is being forced on Ukraine, unless many people step up against it.


The truth is in this case it is the old man on the other side that is forcing young men (and old, and women, and children) to die on both sides.

If you think your stance through to its logical end, you will have said that no military defense is ever justifiable and every population that is ever attacked by any other should always completely subdue itself in pre-emptive servitude.
Surely you did not mean this.

When the other side forces an unprovoked, bloody war on you, there are no unequivocally good alternatives for anyone to pursue, but there will always be some willing to fight even for your freedom. And I can't blame them. Can you?

No I am not an absolute pacifist. In the second world war, (and in other wars), there was an acceptance that urban warfare did no-one any good in most instances, and many cities were left as open cities with minimal resistance. I think that calling on the population to make Molotov cocktails is foolish. A much wiser course of action would be to advise passive resistance and non-co-operation. The Russians might shoot someone throwing something, but my guess is that they would not do a Tianemen square and crush people blocking the street with tanks in front of the world's media. I think that demonstrating resistance at the borders was appropriate, they have made Russia use violence. France did the right thing in the second world war, my guess is any occupation of Ukraine by the Russians will be shorter and less genocidal, even if you have a 'Vichy' Ukraine south of the Dnieper and a Russian administered Ukraine North of the Dnieper for a few years.

Russia does not have the resources to occupy Ukraine for a prolonged period, regardless of whether there is an insurrection. Being a free Unkrainian may be a bit better than a slightly less free Russian but in my view it is a lot better than being dead or injured in a country that has had its infrastructure devastated.

Just suppose what would have happened if a near neighbour of the US say Mexico or a Caribbean island had wanted to join the Warsaw pact with the threat that nuclear missiles and strategic bombers could be minutes from the US, I bet the US would not have stood for that. From Russia's PoV having Ukraine join NATO with the possibility that NATO would station tactical nuclear weapons and have cruise missiles and strategic bombers on the border is an existential threat. Somewhat equivalent to Canada allowing the Russians to have military bases.

Sweden, Finland, Ireland Switzerland and Austria have all survived despite (and maybe because of) not being in NATO. Ukraine might be better to agree to putting neutrality in to its constitution rather than joining NATO. Neutrality can sometimes be an advantage, a neutral Ukraine might be more successful than one committed to joining NATO in a 'permanent' struggle with Russia.

Understanding why Russia acted is not the same as approving of it. Russia has acted, I genuinely think that Ukraine's best option is to cut a quick deal resulting in minimal long term impact, minimal damage to infrastructure and minimal deaths both Ukrainian and Russian.

I entirely respect the fact that people reaching the end of their life in a long term care home can pass peacefully; not so much young men dying in mud with shrapnel wounds.