Putin: Will He or Won't He?

[dudalb]

'NATO was mean to Russia, therefore Putin gets to 'liberate' all the countries he wants".

We have seen this before in the 1930'S:

"The Treaty Of Versaillles was mean to Germany, therefore Hitler has the right to liberate all the countries he wants".

 

[Childlike Empress]

Press releases of both parties concerning the Ukraine part of yesterday's virtual Biden-Putin meeting:

White House:

President Biden voiced the deep concerns of the United States and our European Allies about Russia’s escalation of forces surrounding Ukraine and made clear that the U.S. and our Allies would respond with strong economic and other measures in the event of military escalation. President Biden reiterated his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy.

Kremlin:

The intra-Ukrainian crisis and the lack of progress in implementing the 2015 Minsk agreements, which have no alternative for bringing about a peaceful resolution, topped the conversation’s agenda. The President of Russia shared specific examples to illustrate the destructive nature of Kiev’s policy to dismantle the Minsk Package of Measures and the agreements reached within the Normandy format. He also expressed serious concern about Kiev’s provocative actions against Donbass.

Joseph Biden, in turn, focused on what he described as “threatening” movements of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border and outlined the sanctions the United States and its allies would be ready to impose should the situation escalate any further.

In response, Vladimir Putin warned against shifting the responsibility on Russia, since it was NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to gain a foothold on Ukrainian territory, and building up its military capabilities along the Russian border. It is for this reason that Russia is eager to obtain reliable, legally binding guaranties ruling out the eventuality of NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive weapons systems in the countries neighbouring Russia.

 

[Childlike Empress]

CE, could you expand a bit on your opinion of the BBC with regards Russia?

Well, I was commenting on the specific article Lukraak_Sisser posted, but it's quite typical. I'm not a big consumer of the BBC, but they are a cornerstone for a very long time in telling you who you should and shouldn't like in the world. They are "enemy-shaping" through spinning news by omitting facts like the pipeline and constructing a narrative they think you should believe just bypassing those facts.

Russia has been historically a main target of theirs, but the BBC is far from being alone at this in the UK press and I'm sure they have a great feuilleton.

 

[carlitos]

Here is a fact sheet on the Minsk agreements that are in place from the prior "intra-Ukranian" conflicts.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Here is a fact sheet on the Minsk agreements that are in place from the prior "intra-Ukranian" conflicts.

What you must understand is that "both sides" refers to the Kiev government on one side and the "rebel" regions on the other side. There are no demands made of Russia or the OSCE (who signed it), or of France and Germany (who helped to broker it).

The "Normandy Format" refers to the Ukraine and the three countries that helped to shape those formal agreements between Kiev and the "rebels": Russia, France and Germany.

 

[dudalb]

Here is a fact sheet on the Minsk agreements that are in place from the prior "intra-Ukranian" conflicts.

Sudentenland 2.0.
And if anybody thinks Putin will stop with the Eastern Ukraine, they are incredibly naive.

 

[carlitos]

If anyone likes the style of Vice documentaries, there is a fascinating one on the Donbas from their 2015-ish "Russian Roulette" series that features "Texas," the American who's fighting with the Russians. Halfway through he sings some Russian fighting songs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cA9cGUGr00

I was probably wrong to call him a mercenary; he's just misguided it seems.

 

[crescent]

This was published in July.

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

Summary: History, lots of it. Ukrainians (and Belorussians) love Russia and are one people with Russia. You know, the Silent Majority*. Any desire of Ukrainian alignment with the west is "Anti-Russian" and is clearly only the belief of a tiny corrupt political elite bought and paid for by the west.

Putin's ghostwriter expresses the idea that the great majority of Ukrainians want alignment with Russia, and even if they don't it doesn't matter because they have been misled like stupid little children. Any majority opinion favoring western alignment is either due to false polling, corrupt politicians, or due to the Ukrainian people being stupid and easily misled children who need Russia's firm hand to ever know true happiness.


*"Silent Majority" was a 1970's and 80's era American concept in which it was assumed that the majority of the American people agreed with the conservative Christian evangelical movement's political goals but were too shy to vocally express that, even to pollsters. The concept gave the evangelical's political allies cover to push very hard to implement political goals that were, in truth, very unpopular with the American public. Putin's ghostwriter appears to be applying the same concept in Ukraine, with the pro-Russian alignment people in place of the Christian evangelicals.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Ugh! That means he'll be making his confused/constipated face.

Good call. That face is about 40% of his routine.

 

[Childlike Empress]

History, lots of it.

Look up Kievan Rus'.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Look up Kievan Rus'.

Exactly.

Putin and his entire government should step down and let the historically accurate rulers of the country, the Kievan government take over.

 

[crescent]

Look up Kievan Rus'.

So?

A thing that existed so long ago is meaningless in terms of modern Ukrainian political sovereignty. They have strong cultural ties, but that need not preclude Ukraine from forming political and military alliances of its own choosing. One might as well as expect Great Britain to have a claim to Brittany and Normandy, or for your nation to want to protect all German speaking peoples regardless of where they live.

 

[Childlike Empress]

If anyone likes the style of Vice documentaries, there is a fascinating one on the Donbas from their 2015-ish "Russian Roulette" series that features "Texas," the American who's fighting with the Russians. Halfway through he sings some Russian fighting songs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cA9cGUGr00

I was probably wrong to call him a mercenary; he's just misguided it seems.

Oooh, this gives me flashbacks. I was following that series while it developed. The reporter Ostrovsky somehow got arrested or kidnapped during it, and it later turned out that it wasn't nearly as gruesome as they reported. Can't remember the details. Still a good series. "Texas" was not involved in the arrest/kidnapping, but one of the three "hero" murdered militia leaders Givi, Motorola and Zak* (all locals) was. All didn't die in combat but by bombs specifically targeted at them.

I mention that because "Texas" tells in the recent SITREP I posted in #189 that Zelensky tells the public that he knows exactly who murdered those three and who ordered it. Which is very interesting. He is in a very hot and weak position right now and apparently tries to protect himself from some oligarch. My guess would be Akhmatov or Poroshenko.

There's a short video snippet of Givi (RIP) that will always be at the top of my "nerves of steel" charts:



* Alexander Zakharshenko's signature is on the Minsk agreements as he was leader of the DPR at that time and IIRC at the time he was killed by a quite sophisticated bomb attack on a cafe he frequented.

 

[Childlike Empress]

So?

Nothing. It looked to me like you are in a process of educating yourself and I wanted to be helpful.

 

[Orphia Nay]

Well, I was commenting on the specific article Lukraak_Sisser posted, but it's quite typical. I'm not a big consumer of the BBC, but they are a cornerstone for a very long time in telling you who you should and shouldn't like in the world. They are "enemy-shaping" through spinning news by omitting facts like the pipeline and constructing a narrative they think you should believe just bypassing those facts.

Russia has been historically a main target of theirs, but the BBC is far from being alone at this in the UK press and I'm sure they have a great feuilleton.

Thanks.

 

[crescent]

A Lieutenant Colonel in the Russian military has been court martialed for demanding bribes to allow food shipments to Russian soldiers stationed in Ukraine:

A Russian court has for the first time provided evidence of the presence of Russian soldiers in the occupied Donbas

 

[The Atheist]

A Lieutenant Colonel in the Russian military has been court martialed for demanding bribes to allow food shipments to Russian soldiers stationed in Ukraine

Corruption in Russia?

Say it ain't so.

 

[crescent]

Russia Ukraine: Moscow lists demands for defusing Ukraine tensions

In the proposals Russia sets out a series of radical demands, which require countries that joined Nato after the fall of the Soviet Union not to deploy troops or weapons in areas where they could be seen as a threat to Russia. Heavy bombers and warships would not be allowed in areas outside their national airspace or waters from which they could launch an attack.

That would mean Nato not playing any role at all in any of the three Baltic republics or Poland. And Nato would have to abandon plans for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually join the Western alliance.

The Russian documents here:
AGREEMENT ON MEASURES TO ENSURE THE SECURITY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND MEMBER STATES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION

The Russian Federation and all the Parties that were member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as of 27 May 1997, respectively, shall not deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other States in Europe in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997.

(Effectively rules out deployment of NATO forces to NATO nations that were formerly Warsaw Pact or USSR - the 1997 date marks the beginning of former East Bloc nations into NATO. This would effectively split NATO into a two-tier system).


TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON SECURITY GUARANTEES

The United States of America shall undertake to prevent further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and deny accession to the Alliance to the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

The United States of America shall not establish military bases in the territory of the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.

The Parties shall refrain from flying heavy bombers equipped for nuclear or non-nuclear armaments or deploying surface warships of any type, including in the framework of international organizations, military alliances or coalitions, in the areas outside national airspace and national territorial waters respectively, from where they can attack targets in the territory of the other Party.

(This one seemed oddly worded to me - no Navy activity outside territorial waters, no military flights in international airspace? Note that submarines are excluded.)


Note that the Russian proposals for negotiations don't include the participation of former East Bloc and USSR nations themselves. The will of those nations and their peoples seems utterly meaningless to the Russian government.

 

[crescent]

They really don't want to admit they have troops already in Ukraine, even after they prosecuted a man for interfering with supplies for those troops:

Russia begins audit of Rostov court after it published verdict proving Russian military deployed in eastern Ukraine

The verdict, published by the Rostov court, confirmed the presence of the Russian military in the Donbas. In the text of the verdict in the case of corruption in the supply of food, it was noted that the products were sent to military units of the Russian armed forces on the territory of the breakaway Luhansk and Donetsk Republics. The verdict was delivered by the court on November 10, 2021.

The defendant in the case is the deputy regional manager for military nutrition of one of the commercial companies, who was found guilty of giving bribes to the head of the Center for State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of the Russian Southern Military District with the rank of lieutenant colonel.

As follows from the verdict, the official demanded 90 thousand rubles ($1,210) a month in order not to interfere with the supply of food to Russian servicemen who are stationed in the east of Ukraine.

 

[dudalb]

Russia Ukraine: Moscow lists demands for defusing Ukraine tensions





The Russian documents here:
AGREEMENT ON MEASURES TO ENSURE THE SECURITY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND MEMBER STATES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION

(Effectively rules out deployment of NATO forces to NATO nations that were formerly Warsaw Pact or USSR - the 1997 date marks the beginning of former East Bloc nations into NATO. This would effectively split NATO into a two-tier system).


TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON SECURITY GUARANTEES

(This one seemed oddly worded to me - no Navy activity outside territorial waters, no military flights in international airspace? Note that submarines are excluded.)


Note that the Russian proposals for negotiations don't include the participation of former East Bloc and USSR nations themselves. The will of those nations and their peoples seems utterly meaningless to the Russian government.

They are next on Putin's to do list.
I am now worried that Putin wants the whole banana: A total conquest of the Ukraine.