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Cont: The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part III

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One thing is guaranteed - Vixen will continue to claim the buoys were of the automatic activation type. As long as she can point at one source that even suggests they were then they will be.

It reminds me of the Sgt. Lagasse 'North of Citgo flight path' business in 9/11 CT - you want there to have been fishy business going on so you concentrate on that one suspicious bit of witness testimony and ignore a mass of contradictory evidence, no matter how sound that contradictory evidence might be.
 
One aspect of satellite-based alert and rescue that we haven't discussed is that in 1994 the space component of the system didn't include the high-altitude orbits that the system has today. Today there are no more analog beacons, and the lower frequencies borrowed from aviation are no longer supported. Since all beacons are GPS-equipped today, you only have to detect the signal. The signal contains digitally-encoded information such as the registered owner of the beacon (so you know who's in trouble) and the GPS location of the beacon (so you know where to send help). This can be done these days, with some difficulty, even from geostationary orbit, so the entire Earth's surface can be monitored continuously with only three satellites. To be sure, the modern satellite network consists of these, plus spacecraft at lower altitudes for redundancy. But nominally the current system can instantly localize a transmitter as soon as it begins transmitting.

Back in the 1990s, however, only mid- and low-altitude spacecraft were used, and the beacon signal did not include location because the beacon had no way of knowing where it was. The mid-altitude spacecraft (which were also weather-monitoring satellites) had a reasonably large footprint and could detect signals within a few minutes. But only the low-altitude spacecraft could localize the signal. When the satellite is in a higher orbit, the RF analysis methods of localizing the signal source with respect to the satellite ground track are not very accurate. This is a consequence of the physics involved. Only the LEO satellites could localize a transmission with accuracy good enough to dispatch rescue units.

But LEO satellites have a very small footprint, which is why they have to be placed in different orbital planes. And there weren't enough satellites in each plane to provide continuous monitoring for all areas left and right of the ground track. And the rotation of the Earth through the various orbital planes means you have spotty coverage. For extreme latitudes, you had only the COSPAS spacecraft in near-polar orbits. Depending on your location, it would take up to hours for there to be an LEO satellite flyover to localize the signal.

That's the extreme example. In practice you would still always have a significant delay. So to rely upon COSPAS-SARSAT as the primary mayday signal in 1994 would have been daft. It's a far second place to actually talking to someone nearby on VHF/UHF radio and giving them your position. We've been laying some heavy blame on the officers and crew for not activating their EPIRBs. But, depending on judgment and procedures in place, it's not inconceivable that the officers simply thought that EPIRBs and satellite location were superfluous at the time since they were in interactive communication with the potential rescuers themselves.
 
... it's not inconceivable that the officers simply thought that EPIRBs and satellite location were superfluous at the time since they were in interactive communication with the potential rescuers themselves.

That's a very good point I hadn't considered. After the Estonia had given other ships its location there was little point in switching on the beacons.
 
That's a very good point I hadn't considered. After the Estonia had given other ships its location there was little point in switching on the beacons.

They should always be switched on and thrown in the water when the ship sinks or taken aboard a liferaft.
 
They should always be switched on and thrown in the water when the ship sinks or taken aboard a liferaft.

Good point: the liferaft scenario makes sense since they also serve for short-range localization once rescue units are near the scene, and liferafts may have dispersed.

But the argument that switching them on would have led to faster initiation of a rescue attempt than direct radio contact is not supported by fact.
 
Good point: the liferaft scenario makes sense since they also serve for short-range localization once rescue units are near the scene, and liferafts may have dispersed.

But the argument that switching them on would have led to faster initiation of a rescue attempt than direct radio contact is not supported by fact.

Most modern buoys have a lanyard for attaching to a raft or wrist. some rafts have pockets for buoys.
 
One aspect of satellite-based alert and rescue that we haven't discussed is that in 1994 the space component of the system didn't include the high-altitude orbits that the system has today. Today there are no more analog beacons, and the lower frequencies borrowed from aviation are no longer supported. Since all beacons are GPS-equipped today, you only have to detect the signal. The signal contains digitally-encoded information such as the registered owner of the beacon (so you know who's in trouble) and the GPS location of the beacon (so you know where to send help). This can be done these days, with some difficulty, even from geostationary orbit, so the entire Earth's surface can be monitored continuously with only three satellites. To be sure, the modern satellite network consists of these, plus spacecraft at lower altitudes for redundancy. But nominally the current system can instantly localize a transmitter as soon as it begins transmitting.

Back in the 1990s, however, only mid- and low-altitude spacecraft were used, and the beacon signal did not include location because the beacon had no way of knowing where it was. The mid-altitude spacecraft (which were also weather-monitoring satellites) had a reasonably large footprint and could detect signals within a few minutes. But only the low-altitude spacecraft could localize the signal. When the satellite is in a higher orbit, the RF analysis methods of localizing the signal source with respect to the satellite ground track are not very accurate. This is a consequence of the physics involved. Only the LEO satellites could localize a transmission with accuracy good enough to dispatch rescue units.

But LEO satellites have a very small footprint, which is why they have to be placed in different orbital planes. And there weren't enough satellites in each plane to provide continuous monitoring for all areas left and right of the ground track. And the rotation of the Earth through the various orbital planes means you have spotty coverage. For extreme latitudes, you had only the COSPAS spacecraft in near-polar orbits. Depending on your location, it would take up to hours for there to be an LEO satellite flyover to localize the signal.

That's the extreme example. In practice you would still always have a significant delay. So to rely upon COSPAS-SARSAT as the primary mayday signal in 1994 would have been daft. It's a far second place to actually talking to someone nearby on VHF/UHF radio and giving them your position. We've been laying some heavy blame on the officers and crew for not activating their EPIRBs. But, depending on judgment and procedures in place, it's not inconceivable that the officers simply thought that EPIRBs and satellite location were superfluous at the time since they were in interactive communication with the potential rescuers themselves.


One of my first investment banking assignments was a bond issuance for one of the two LEO comms satellite operators that was (apparently, hehe) going to revolutionise the world of handheld mobile communications by creating a seamless global system with 100% geographic coverage.

Unfortunately, they tragi-comically failed to realise that a) over 99.9% of people who desire mobile communications have no need to be able to communicate from, say, the middle of the Atlantic or even he middle of Yellowstone, and b) even though they (correctly) forecast that handsets capable of LEO-sat communication would become progressively much smaller and with longer battery lives, they didn't take account of the concomitant improvements in handsets for earthbound cellular networks.

I remember being at a particularly OTT investor roadshow event in Singapore, where they'd hired out half of Raffles and were giving away Tiffany stuff in goodie bags. My MD at the time correctly predicted it as a "last days of the Roman Empire" moment, and so it proved. My investment bank severed its relationship with the company after that fundraising, and they went spectacularly bust a year or so later.
 
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Rude.



Asked and answered. Why do you think he's an expert on what equipment some particular ship had fitted?



A secondary source, vanity-published and sold on Amazon. Who is Jack A. Nelson, and why should he be considered an authority on emergency beacons?

It's published by Apprentice Press of Maryland University.

The guy says he is a PhD in journalism.

Hey, all journalists need are the sources.

Without investigative journalists, Tricky Dicky might never have had that nickname.
 
The guy says he is a PhD in journalism.

Then why do several of the low-star reviews note that it's full of spelling and grammar errors? And who gets a PhD in journalism? My mother was the head of a whole journalism department at a major university, and she didn't have a PhD.

Hey, all journalists need are the sources.

What was his source for the claim that the EPIRBs were immersion-activated? If you agree he's not the primary source, then what is?

Without investigative journalists, Tricky Dicky might never have had that nickname.

Tell us about Hugh Sloan, then. Woodward and Bernstein had Ben Bradlee to keep them on their toes and ensure they had reliable sources before he agreed to publish their claims. Who was your author's editor, who provided the same insurance?
 
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EPIRB's were automatically-activated ones - HS

Yet more documentary evidence the Estonia EPIRB's were automatically-activated ones, as well as being of automatic release.

Another oddity related to the alarm also occurred in connection with the accident. The ship had an alarm and position buoy for the sarsat-cospas system, which automatically transmits the alarm via satellite while sending the coordinates of its own position.

Kalle Pedak , the director general of the Estonian Maritime Administration , thinks that the buoy was not thrown out into the water, but that it must have gone to the bottom with the ship.

Helsingin Sanomat 29.9.1994 0200

Helsingin Sanomat is on a par with Der Zeit, Herald Tribune, Le Monde or Repubblica, Frankfurter Allgemeine, et al, before anyone calls it a 'finnish [sic] backwater rag].


Q.E.D. ::
 
Yet more documentary evidence the Estonia EPIRB's were automatically-activated ones, as well as being of automatic release.



Helsingin Sanomat 29.9.1994 0200

Helsingin Sanomat is on a par with Der Zeit, Herald Tribune, Le Monde or Repubblica, Frankfurter Allgemeine, et al, before anyone calls it a 'finnish [sic] backwater rag].


Q.E.D. ::

Patently false. First "automatically transmits" does not mean automatically activated by immersion in water. Once activated, it will continue to transmit automatically until its battery is exhausted. Second, it cannot automatically transmit its position because that would mean it would need to have some way of knowing its position. It is the satellite network that localizes the signal, using the methods I described.

No, continuing to cite misinformed secondary sources working with early information does not dispel the proof you've already been given that the EPIRBs were not immersion-activated.
 
It's published by Apprentice Press of Maryland University.
The guy says he is a PhD in journalism.

Hey, all journalists need are the sources.

Without investigative journalists, Tricky Dicky might never have had that nickname.

Of course, the highlighted part is false. (I don't believe there even is a "Maryland University".
 
Then why do several of the low-star reviews note that it's full of spelling and grammar errors? And who gets a PhD in journalism? My mother was the head of a whole journalism department at a major university, and she didn't have a PhD.



What was his source for the claim that the EPIRBs were immersion-activated? If you agree he's not the primary source, then what is?



Tell us about Hugh Sloan, then. Woodward and Bernstein had Ben Bradlee to keep them on their toes and ensure they had reliable sources before he agreed to publish their claims. Who was your author's editor, who provided the same insurance?

From his author profile:

Jack A. Nelson

The son of a Norwegian immigrant, Jack Nelson grew up in Bellflower in Southern California.

A former journalist, he has been attracted to actual events in his books. In this newest non-fiction book, FLASHES IN THE NIGHT: THE SINKING OF THE ESTONIA, he has chronicled the gripping drama of souls facing their own mortality on tiny rafts on a storm-wracked sea after their ship sank at midnight. After interviewing survivors and doing research in Sweden and Estonia, he has been able to put the reader into the scene to explore the feelings and the actions of those who survived and those who did not.

This Estonia sinking book was recently awarded third place in the 2011 International Book Awards.

<snip>
He returned to Utah to marry the gorgeous coed he had been courting for a year, and took a one-year teaching assignment at BYU. Then he and Patrice spent two years at the University of Missouri, where he received a doctorate in journalism. He then taught journalism at California State-Humboldt, the University of Utah--and ended up back at BYU teaching journalism for 25 years. Now retired from teaching, he and Patrice live in Provo, Utah. # # #

He is from Utah. He makes some mistakes in thinking Åbo and Turku are two different towns and seems not to realise there is both a Swedish and a Finnish archipelago, plus he muddles up Swedish time with the time zone of the accident site. Apart from that he makes a good fist of it, IMV. I didn't spot any spelling mistakes, and they usually leap out. I thought it was a good read, in fact. Good quality hardback but no photo plates, though.
 
Yet more documentary evidence the Estonia EPIRB's were automatically-activated ones, as well as being of automatic release.



Helsingin Sanomat 29.9.1994 0200

Helsingin Sanomat is on a par with Der Zeit, Herald Tribune, Le Monde or Repubblica, Frankfurter Allgemeine, et al, before anyone calls it a 'finnish [sic] backwater rag].


Q.E.D. ::

They were recovered, they were manual activation buoys.
We know what model they were, they were a float free but not automatic model.
It did not transmit it's position, just a distress signal.

Why would you take a newspaper over the actual official report and manufacturers information?
 
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Of course, the highlighted part is false. (I don't believe there even is a "Maryland University".

Erratum: Loyola.

Who is Apprentice House?
Apprentice House Press is a book publisher based at Loyola University Maryland in Baltimore. We publish books in diverse genres. Our criteria? The work must be good, and the author must be good with whom to work.
https://www.apprenticehouse.com/
 
From his author profile:



He is from Utah. He makes some mistakes in thinking Åbo and Turku are two different towns and seems not to realise there is both a Swedish and a Finnish archipelago, plus he muddles up Swedish time with the time zone of the accident site. Apart from that he makes a good fist of it, IMV. I didn't spot any spelling mistakes, and they usually leap out. I thought it was a good read, in fact. Good quality hardback but no photo plates, though.

So he gets place names mixed up and times wrong and you think he is reliable?
 
They were recovered, they were manual activation buoys.
We know what model they were, they were a float free but not automatic model.

Why would you take a newspaper over the actual official report and manufacturers information?

It is an early day report, within 24 hours of the accident and every single report including that of Koivisto, JAIC-appointed tells you it is an automatically-activated EPIRB with an HRU automatic release when submerged in water.

Not being funny but your denials remind me of anti-vaxxers, blind to factual information.
 
Apart from that he makes a good fist of it, IMV.

So you admit he made errors in his book, but somehow we're supposed to take him as an authority over all others on the small detail of whether the beacons were immersion activated. Since you appear to have his book, you can tell us what authority he cites for that information. Please do so.
 
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