The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[Vixen]

An explosion in a ship's compartment is not the same as being 200 yards away from a bomb in the open.

Linde said he heard the bang outside of the car deck.

 

[GlennB]

That is completely irrelevant. I was quoting the Braidwood laboratory report from Clausthal-Zellerfeld, an independent forensic laboratory, who report the deformation on the metal they examined was consistent with a detonation or a temperature over 700°C. The fact that you know of something that reaches this temperature is a non-sequitur.

I was commenting on your claim that temperatures of over 700°C can only be achieved in a laboratory, and you know it. Please stop making nonsense claims that are so easy to refute. They make you look stupid, desperate, or both.

 

[Vixen]

If they wanted the publicity to 'send a message' to the worlds governments over weapon smuggling wouldn't they have similarly made it obvious that the ship had been sunk rather than making it look like a faulty part?

The Russians have never admitted to either the Skirpal or the poisioned ex-spy incident. But the message has been received...?


It was Swedish PM Carl Bildt who immediately said it was just an accident caused by the bow visor falling off and his defence chief Svensson who immediately was of the opinion the bodies should not be recovered.

The Russians have said nothing about a 'faulty part'. It denied having any vessels in the area at the time, despite Finnish coastguards having to alert the 'research ship' Leonid Byschkoff the same day it was perilously near to rock.

 

[Vixen]

If the bang was big enough to knock him off his feet in a closed space he would have suffered more than a bit of deafness.

You have not the slightest idea of the effect of blast injury in a closed space.

Linde never claimed the bang was inside the car deck.

 

[Andy_Ross]

All Westermann was tasked with doing was to analyse the sample metal from the bow visor. It is not her job to declare whether the deformations she discovered were caused by a detonation or not. In any case, any detonation may well have been caused by the Swedish Navy or another hundred and one scenarios. It is for the investigators to rule out the various scenarios, not a humble professor of Metallurgy and Material Science.

What was she given as a sample?
How big was it?
Where exactly was it from?
How was it removed?
How was it tested?

 

[Andy_Ross]

No. If the explosive device was on the bow visor it would be outwith the car deck not inside it.

To make the ship heave up enough to knock him off his feet it must have been huge.

If it was on the visor it was inside the ship as the visor forms the front end of the car deck it was inside, that's where the locking systems and pivots are.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Linde said he heard the bang outside of the car deck.

Because it was the bow visor moving, not an explosion.

 

[Vixen]

I was commenting on your claim that temperatures of over 700°C can only be achieved in a laboratory, and you know it. Please stop making nonsense claims that are so easy to refute. They make you look stupid, desperate, or both.

I was quoting the opinion of the German Expert Group.

Sure the bow visor metal may have been subjected to those temperatures sometime in the past. However, if the deformations seen happened as of the time of the accident, how likely was it due to an arc welding cutter? Unless the crew were mucking about with it, as they had been witnessed doing on previous trips by former passengers. Not very likely at all IMV.

 

[Vixen]

To make the ship heave up enough to knock him off his feet it must have been huge.

If it was on the visor it was inside the ship as the visor forms the front end of the car deck it was inside, that's where the locking systems and pivots are.

Well, Linde soon retracted his statement so who knows what he saw.

 

[GlennB]

I was quoting the opinion of the German Expert Group.

They said that temperatures of over 700°C can only be achieved in a laboratory? That surprises me.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I was quoting the opinion of the German Expert Group.

Sure the bow visor metal may have been subjected to those temperatures sometime in the past. However, if the deformations seen happened as of the time of the accident, how likely was it due to an arc welding cutter? Unless the crew were mucking about with it, as they had been witnessed doing on previous trips by former passengers. Not very likely at all IMV.

Where has anyone claimed that the deformation is due to a welding cutter?

What is being pointed out is that cutting the components from plate and bar stock subjects them to heat and welding them in to place subjects them to heat.

 

[Mojo]

Was it stealing its own secrets? In any case, Yeltsin had no idea what the intelligence services were up to half the time.

Why would the Swedish government cover up something that was done by the Russian intelligence services as a result of smuggling by the Russian government?

 

[Vixen]

The Arikas videos

The Expedition that took place in July 2021 has now released its videos and will release more. Its stated aim is:

As per the procurement of Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau, ROV surveys were conducted at the wrecksite of m/s Estonia on 14th and 15th of July 2021. The goal was to verify objects and images found with the sonar survey.

Here are a few shots of the starboard rupture.

The ROV has captured some of the geology nearby. In particular a 'red granite rock', which is a little ahead of it.

It also took shots of the car ramp and some of the car deck. It shows the deformations in the car ramp stiffeners and indicates they are consistent with damage from the bow visor forepeak.

This seems to be a reasonable approach to take.

Assumptions:

• the 22m x 4m rupture in the starboad was caused by impact with the red granite rock
• the deformations apparent on the car ramp was caused by the bow visor forepeak as it came loose

They will need to do the calculations as to whether the assumptions hold true and if not, to look at alternative explanations.

 

[Vixen]

Arikas Videos 2

Pictured: the car ramp deformations, which the Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau reasons matches the bow visor forepeak.

Note the mattress on the car deck.

The right - hand stabilizer wing was inside the hull (not in the extended position): 55.00
The reinforced side part surrounding the stabilizer wing is compared to the other hull
more corroded and welds covered with a thick layer of rust.
1.05.08: Moved along the seabed and observed a pink granite nugget against the entire survey initiated rupture and crushing site.

<snip>

1.08.05 Observe the hinge ears of the bow ramp, moving from top to bottom, or ramp
from the left side of the normal situation to the right side. It can be seen that both left
the ears of the on-board hinge are severely deformed, the loops of the second hinge on the left are broken /
torn.
Next, boarded the left deck (1.25.00), where the central part of the flat bottom of the ship was observed
condition and on the left side of the hull cut during the 1994 diving survey
(1.35.34) and the metal truss used to close it together
cut-out hull.
From the left board, descended to the bottom line (1.49.30) and continued to bow
direction.

<snip>

22.52 Moving towards the bow, we reach the previously seen rupture, which is observed and
ascending, you reach under the right wedge.
26.43 The difference in height between the tear and the wedge is observed until the visibility of the sediment
disappears due to ascension.
Proceed towards the bow to the bow thrusters visible from the starboard side:
43.43
50.34 A bow is reached, looking at the bow and right of the bulb.
52.40 The upper part of the bow is visible.
54.06 You can see the front part of the bow stem with the fixing horn and the
the former location of the visor 's bottom lock (Atlantic lock) has been removed by divers
buckle welds) and the foredeck deck access hatch.
54.22 The angle of the bow ramp attached to the hinge of the right side of the bow ramp is visible
fragment.
55.06 A closer look shows how the hull, cladding and welds are on the fragment
torn. Next to the longitudinally hanging ribs hanging vertically, can be seen torn down and
rolled steel plate strip
56.26 The robot moves away for a moment to check if the cable comes back and forth
as it moves, the bow ramp rises above the left side hydraulic cylinder and visor side locks.
The left hydraulic cylinder of the bow ramp is in its seat.
When descending back to the right side (59.10), move away from the bow for a moment,
to make sure that the ROV cable is not stuck because it is harder to catch up -
caused by the cable descent being too far from the bow ramp, although the EVA-316 is
meanwhile moved closer.
1.03.30 Again at the draft marks on the starboard side of the bow and descend to the bow ramp
to: 1.06.32

1.08.47 There are no two hinges on the starboard side (torn off with the corner of the ramp).
1.10.38 Looking at the center of the bottom of the ramp, strong deformations and
twisting of the stiffeners in both directions. The main beams of the bow ramp have hinges triangular indentations that appear to be corresponding to the triangular contour of the forepeak deck.1.23.49 Consider a fragment of the ramp attached to the hull facing inwards from the inside.
A hinged cover plate is visible.
1.24.00 When descending, you can probably see the ramp on the right side of the hydraulic cylinder
caused by deformation of the inside edge of the ramp tunnel.
1.24.22 A fragment of the ramp and a better edge tear can be seen again.
1.25.38 The ROV attempts to move to the car deck. About 10-15 meters from the car deck
inside, the cable is stuck at the front of the bow ramp and the ROV does not extend further. See
is on the ceiling of the car deck (the wreck is upside down) probably from the breakdown of the van van

https://www.ojk.ee/et/sisu/pl-estonia/esialgne-hindamine

 

[Vixen]

Why would the Swedish government cover up something that was done by the Russian intelligence services as a result of smuggling by the Russian government?

Erm, you think it is normal to load the stolen military equipment of a hostile foreign power onto a passenger ferry?

Suppose MI5 ordered London Transport to carry smuggled out ISIS materiel and equipment on the tube?

Especially when you know someone is bound to tip them off.

"Shut gob, pin back lug'oles and put t'brain in gear" ~ Yorkshire homily

 

[Vixen]

Will your be supporting these assertions with evidence?

Not for now, but watch this space...

 

[Vixen]

Arc Welding produces around 6000-8000 degrees Celsius.
Oxy Acetylene gas welding produces temperatures around about 3,200 degrees Celsius.

Welding steel requires it to be heated above 1500 degrees to melt the parts or it won't work.

Welding did not cause the deformation.

Perhaps the 700 was a typo by Braidwood and he meant 7000.

 

[Vixen]

What was she given as a sample?
How big was it?
Where exactly was it from?
How was it removed?
How was it tested?

Here is the relevant press release:

Westermann told daily Postimees that: "One of the most interesting findings was that very different micro-structures were observed within a distance of just a few centimeters from one another."

"There are parts where the material has not been deformed or impacted," Westermann said, adding that traces of solidified material had been found in those zones where the metal had been impacted.

Ida Westermann said that this is indicative of a great pressure and of metal having melted in the said area at a temperature of at least 1,200 degrees, and the changes appear to be consistent with the results of an explosion.
"I do not want to further speculate on what exactly happened," she said, adding that the said changes cannot occur in the process of ship construction or repairs.

"If this had been the case, the entire part would have been replaced," the researcher said.

https://news.err.ee/1608353807/ms-e...s-may-show-traces-of-exposure-to-extreme-heat

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Utter nonsense! The Soviets categorically denied they torpedoed the Hansa in Oct 1944. So you are wrong to claim that their attitude was 'It's OK, it's a war!' It took Russia forty-eight years to admit it was their submarine that had sunk the Hansa. Sweden was a totally neutral country, BTW. The USSR did not 'target' the Hansa. It just lay in wait skulking around the seabed and probably mistook it for another ship.

So you reckon that if a sovereign state discovers/is tipped off their defence and space secrets are being smuggled to a foreign hostile power, it should just go to that foreign country, bluff its way on board the offending transport and 'throw the smugglers overboard'?

Yes, that would really work and make it stop_NOT!

Firstly, stop twisting what I actually said into something different so you can criticise it. I didn't claim the Soviets accepted the blame for sinking the Hansa. I said they screwed up. Which they did. I didn't say they targeted the Hansa, I said they targeted the ship. Which they did. It wasn't a ship they should have attacked. So again, you're changing what I actually said in order to find something to complain about.

And I didn't say the Russians *should* kill the smugglers, but clearly we both think they absolutely *would*. And why do you think it unlikely that they would go to Estonia and bluff their way aboard the Estonia? How else do you propose they planted the bomb you imagine they used?

Do I think killing the smugglers would stop them smuggling? Yes, I do. Do you think they would continue from the afterlife? And I also think it would send a pretty vivid message to their co-conspirators. Do you disagree?

 

[Kid Eager]

All Westermann was tasked with doing was to analyse the sample metal from the bow visor. It is not her job to declare whether the deformations she discovered were caused by a detonation or not. In any case, any detonation may well have been caused by the Swedish Navy or another hundred and one scenarios. It is for the investigators to rule out the various scenarios, not a humble professor of Metallurgy and Material Science.

How amusing.

Where is this supposed set of responsibilities stated? You were happy enough to hide behind the professor to attribute a claim of explosives when it suited you.

For your latest version of the claim, was she a subject matter expert to not?