The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-opened Part II

[Andy_Ross]

How do you know? Hearing loss can take years to become apparent.

Burst ear drums are apparent straight away. As are flash burns.

I can talk about blast injury if you want. I have experience of people that suffered blast injury aboard ships.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Why would a skilled military operator use a truck bomb? The Russians are not 'amateur hour' jihadis as was the case in USS Cole, when a couple of guys laden with suicide vests rammed a small boat loaded with 700lbs of explosives into it.

There is finesse and there is bull in a chain shop. Do you think the speznats are the latter?

So finessed there is no actual evidence of explosives?

How much explosive do you think would be needed to blow a hole in a ship or blow the bow visor off?

How big do you think the bang would be?

 

[Andy_Ross]

No, that is not my belief, that was the claim of engineering expert and JAIC investigation team member Harri Ruotsalainen's suggestion. And do you know what? The Estonian government and the Swedish current investigators have taken his suggestion seriously and will be auditing the vehicles on the car deck.

What is your evidence for the Estonian and Swedish governments auditing the vehicles?

What state do you think they will be in after being thrown around in a sinking then being laid on the bottom of the sea for decades in a wreck that is shifting position?

 

[Vixen]

It was a very long way away from the wreck. It didn't walk there. Evidence for any explosion is very, very far from "clear".

Metal can be analysed for deformations and from that analysis certain conclusions can be drawn. Prof. in Material Science Ida Westermann of Norwegian NNUT, whose speciality is Steel and Aluminium in which she has written various research papers has analysed the metal on the bow visor and does say the deformation seen - the metal caving in on itself and bein pushed in by 70cm [think about that] was consistent with high temperatures of 1,200°C.

She has microscopically analysed the thing and you have not.

 

[Mojo]

How do you know? Hearing loss can take years to become apparent.

Pardon?

 

[Andy_Ross]

The lifeboats on the Estonia were unlashed early on, so someone was getting ready to leave.

And how do you know one of them did not.

Of course they were getting ready to leave, the ship was sinking in a storm.

Isn't it your contention that the man with the tattoo is one of the supposed hijackers?

he didn't get away did he?

 

[Vixen]

What the hell has that got to do with what I wrote about its being a dumb plan?

You're now wittering on about a ship that the Russians torpedoed during the war, carrying enemy troops (as well as a large number of civilians). I see that your love of the phrase "with military precision" persists but it adds nothing to the argument. They used military weapons, because they were the Soviet navy.

Estonia did not get torpedoed.

What was their plan? Plant a little bomb and hope that nobody except the people they needed to "get the message" would realise it was a bomb? How could they do that? Make it too small and it probably wouldn't work. Make it too big and it would be obvious to everyone. In any case, the motive was not to sink one ferry. The motive in your fantasy is to stop smuggling. Do you think the FSB were incapable of thinking of any other way to interdict the smuggling of ex-Soviet tech other than to sink a ship carrying one consignment? Really?

Like I said, at the evil budget meeting where you pitch this plan and ask for the resources, Dr. Evil's finger will be twitching over the button.

Would this be the same kind gentle people who drop plutonium in the tea of dissidents and come to see the famous spires of Salisbury cathedral, coincidentally, where ex-KGB spies have abdicated to...? Those ones?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Metal can be analysed for deformations and from that analysis certain conclusions can be drawn. Prof. in Material Science Ida Westermann of Norwegian NNUT, whose speciality is Steel and Aluminium in which she has written various research papers has analysed the metal on the bow visor and does say the deformation seen - the metal caving in on itself and bein pushed in by 70cm [think about that] was consistent with high temperatures of 1,200°C.

She has microscopically analysed the thing and you have not.

This is the metal that was deformed by it's misuse and had been welded?

Was the part forged?

How hot is a welder?

What do you think over stressing a metal part does to it?

 

[Vixen]

Have you considered that if the Russians got a team onto Estonia chasing after some smugglers and a lorry load of high tech booty, they could have more easily thrown the smugglers over the side, then steal the lorry or just abandon it. Whatever.

Do you think the smugglers customers would have failed to "get the message" if they all mysteriously got disappeared into the stormy Baltic that night?

Make no mistake. This was not a bunch of ruffians having turf wars, as in Get Carter with Michael Caine, this is high level top security politics. You are not seeing the big picture.

 

[Andy_Ross]

More on abandoning a ship.

You get the boats over as soon as you can. If it is a passenger ship you get the boats filled while they are still on the Falls before lowering them.
If it looks like the boats will not be filled before it becomes impossible to lower them you send them away empty and rescue from the water.

While you are filling the boats you launch the rafts, these are boarded from in the water. It is easier to get in to a raft than it is in to a boat.

All boats and rafts should have one or preferable two crew each to assist passengers.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Would this be the same kind gentle people who drop plutonium in the tea of dissidents and come to see the famous spires of Salisbury cathedral, coincidentally, where ex-KGB spies have abdicated to...? Those ones?

Because that was done with such precision and finesse.

 

[Vixen]

This is one of the dumbest things I've read in this thread, certainly in the top four.

There were no explosions.

The Spetsnaz have access to quality fake documents to just about any European country, so getting a truck bomb on a ferry back in 1994 would not have been much of a problem had they wanted to do something dumb.

The Russians didn't sink the Estonia.

There are hundreds of surveyed shipwrecks with plenty of holes caused by explosives, shells, torpedoes, and mines. The Estonia is not one of them.

Smuggling of Soviet/Russian secret hardware continued after the Estonia sank.

Had there actually been some vital piece of Russian state secrets onboard the Estonia the Russian navy would have intercepted her with surface ships, escorted her to a Russian port, and searched the ship. The resulting public relations fiasco would be more than enough to make the west cool their jets. This is how Russia had acted in the past along with China, North Korea, the UK, and the USA.

Faking a few documents to get back some cargo is hardly a deterrent to the USA, the Brits and the Swedes. This was political. It was sending a message. That is what terrorism and war is about. It's not about sending a stern letter, which it had already done twice to diplomats, including MI6. It was 'You had two warnings.'

 

[Vixen]

I mentioned this concept before.

If there had been a Spetsnaz team onboard they would have recovered the stolen gear, and fed the smugglers to the fish. Nobody would have known they were there.

It wasn't about recovering stolen gear it was about, 'Stop stealing our secrets!'

 

[Vixen]

Not true.

You can sail your ship at flank speed into a field of icebergs. You can leave a bunch hatches open in a storm, you can sail headlong into a hurricane, you can ignore a lighthouse and sail into rocks, and a bunch of other things which do not require military knowledge of any kind.

Sure you can but if you are not the captain or in charge of the ship you have to come up with other ways.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Faking a few documents to get back some cargo is hardly a deterrent to the USA, the Brits and the Swedes. This was political. It was sending a message. That is what terrorism and war is about. It's not about sending a stern letter, which it had already done twice to diplomats, including MI6. It was 'You had two warnings.'

At the start of the thread you said it was an escorting Swedish sub that sank the ferry by accident.

You've come a long way since then.

 

[Vixen]

Burst ear drums are apparent straight away. As are flash burns.

I can talk about blast injury if you want. I have experience of people that suffered blast injury aboard ships.

That is not so. I had a perforated eardrum from an airflight. I didn't know my eardrum was perforated until a doctor told me years later.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Sure you can but if you are not the captain or in charge of the ship you have to come up with other ways.

Loosen a pipe flange on a sea cock.
I would choose the return pipe from one of the engine coolers, that way you have huge pumps forcing the water in to the ship as long as there is power.
A ship like the Estonia would probably be using seawater pumps of around 2000 cubic meters an hour.
That would be 2000 tons of water in to the ship multiplied by the number of engines.
Then I would move on to the return pipes for the generating plant, that would be another 3 or 4 pushing out 200 cubic meters an hour or so.

If I couldn't get in to the engine room I would break the fire main. That would be putting around 500 cubic meters an hour in to the ship.
That's probably the easiest way to do it. You could just open the fire hose valves then disable them to stop them being closed. I would do it on as many valves as I could find.

Most ship sinkings are caused by broken seawater pipes on engine coolant systems.

 

[Andy_Ross]

That is not so. I had a perforated eardrum from an airflight. I didn't know my eardrum was perforated until a doctor told me years later.

How is that the same as being caught in a blast?

 

[Vixen]

So finessed there is no actual evidence of explosives?

How much explosive do you think would be needed to blow a hole in a ship or blow the bow visor off?

How big do you think the bang would be?

There is evidence of explosives. See Brian Braidwood and now Professors Westermann and Ulfversson.

 

[Vixen]

What is your evidence for the Estonian and Swedish governments auditing the vehicles?

What state do you think they will be in after being thrown around in a sinking then being laid on the bottom of the sea for decades in a wreck that is shifting position?

From TURUN SANOMAT today:

A new research group is already planned
According to Lännen Media, the Estonian Commission of the Riigikogu of the Estonian Parliament is already preparing to send the next investigation team to the Estonian wreck.

The purpose would be to further clarify the contents of the car deck and in particular whether the cargo entered in the Estonian consignment note is still on board.
Recent Swedish data also suggest the possibility that the Estonian bow visor may have been under pressure from the explosion. With the new information, the official investigation led by the Estonian Accident Investigation Board will be subject to tougher expectations than before.

They certainly would not waste money on this unless there was a reasonable prospect of success.