The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Steve]

This is all a red herring, anyway. If the NATO forces *did* insert themselves into the rescue operation, Vixen would be saying: "A-ha! There must have been military secrets on that ferry!"

 

[whoanellie]

This is how one animator imagines the submarine strike:

Where's the explosion?

 

[whoanellie]

But wait! The bow visor is just 55 tonnes. The vessel is 18,000 tonnes, loaded. Just 0.004% of its total mass.

Using your figures, it is 0.31%, not 0.004%. Reminds me of when you presented an explosive detonation velocity as a force. When you repeatedly get basics like this wrong it casts doubt on the rest of your many alternative narratives.

Whoops, I misread the -3 on my calculator. That is correct. 0.31% is vanishingly tiny, whichever way you look at it.

(55/18000)x100 = 0.31
Where did the -3 come from? Show your work please.

 

[Vixen]

The NATO exercise was not classified in any way. If you put some effort in you might get details about what they did and didn't do about Estonia.



The maximum range for a CH-47 is 400 miles. The NATO maneuvers were 400 miles away. I'd tell you to do the math but...

Your mythical Chinook would have arrived at the Estonia just in time to ditch into the ocean.

The internet can be your friend:

https://www.boeing.com/defense/ch-47-chinook/

Come off it. It could refuel at Gdansk or Rosktock or Ystad. what is the point of a military search and rescue if it is confined to a 400 mile radius? That rules out any Atlantic, India or Pacific Ocean searches...I doubt it.

 

[Vixen]

It isn't. To my knowledge the NSA has no position on the sinking of Estonia, nor the newly discover hole in the side, nor the current maritime operation to re-survey the wreck (although it is safe to assume they're listening and copying telemetry 'cuz a spy agency gotta spy).

It has three documents spanning seven pages. As the 'investigation' of the 'accident' is in the public domain, what's with the 'classified secret' stuff? To save the then President Bill Clinton's face..?

 

[Vixen]

Imagine a 40 pound front door slamming in a 200 ton, 2000 sq ft. house. Might it be heard/felt throughout the house? To make the proportions more accurate, what if you slammed a 600 pound garage door?

Sure it will be felt, or even ring out like a bell, as Captain_Swoop poetically puts it, but it couldn't by any stretch of imagination be confused with an explosion or an 'extremely heavy collision' as one survivor put it.

 

[erwinl]

Come off it. It could refuel at Gdansk or Rosktock or Ystad. what is the point of a military search and rescue if it is confined to a 400 mile radius? That rules out any Atlantic, India or Pacific Ocean searches...I doubt it.

You can dislike it all you want. But the range of the CH-47 is indeed 400 nm.

Range.
Not radius as you posted.

 

[Vixen]

What 'chinooks'? They are not naval helicopters.

What ships and helicopters were available to the NATO force?

Why would they fly over 400 miles when dedicated SAR shore based helicopters were closer?

The shore based helicoptors at Sweden and Finland were ill prepared and had to keep making return journeys as well as waiting for daylight. Several Swedish helicopters reached some life rafts but then discovered their hoisting mechanisms were insufficient for persons barely able to move and with no energy to grip anything.

As I said, there are plenty of places on the way to refuel in an emergency.

 

[Vixen]

What was the exercise? what ships were involved? Where were they in relation to this submarine?
So it was picked up?

What does it have to do with the Estonia?

It was a fourteen nation exercise. Huge. If a distress signal comes through you act on it.

 

[Vixen]

It would seem to me that a military exercise is rather undermined if they suddenly go "oh, there's a civilian vessel I distress hundreds of miles away, let's focus on that, instead!"

It was an eight day exercise so plenty of time to allow for an emergency rescue of 1,000 passengers and crew in extreme distress.

 

[Vixen]

I think this refers to an earlier NATO exercise and an earlier submarine that the Russians sold to Iran.


It all gets confusing.

There was a NATO exercise both in 1993 and in 1994.

 

[Vixen]

I can guarantee they weren't involved in a NATO exercise in the Baltic.

At the time the RN were operating the Lynx off ships, it has a range of 530 miles and an endurance of 5 and a half hours with extra fuel tanks installed.

They were also operating the Sea King and Wessex off the carriers but they were not involved in any Baltic exercises, the Wessex had a range of 300 miles.

A Sea King could have made it with a range of 750 miles and an endurance of nearly 8 hours but they were not in the Baltic.

Again, why would a nato exercixe over 400 miles away be involved at all when there were shore based assets a lot closer?

Because of the sheer number of people involved and the extreme urgency?

 

[Vixen]

(55/18000)x100 = 0.31
Where did the -3 come from? Show your work please.

As I said, I misread my calculator. Do get over it.

 

[erwinl]

Come off it. It could refuel at Gdansk

About 570 km away from where the Estonia sank

or Rosktock

About 830 km away from where the Estonia sank (if you mean Rostock, Germany that is)

or Ystad.

About 640 km away from where the Estonia sank

what is the point of a military search and rescue if it is confined to a 400 mile radius? That rules out any Atlantic, India or Pacific Ocean searches...I doubt it.

Those refueling places are rather far away from the sinking place, isn't it?


Especially as there are resque helicopters already there about 170 km (Tallinn) to 200 km (Stockholm) from where the Estonia was and still is, which would be far sooner there to help.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Come off it. It could refuel at Gdansk or Rosktock or Ystad. what is the point of a military search and rescue if it is confined to a 400 mile radius? That rules out any Atlantic, India or Pacific Ocean searches...I doubt it.

So they would fly to a shore base and refuel then carry on to the sinking site?

How long extra would that take compared to local dedicated search and rescue helicopters just flying there anyway?

How many helicopters do you think were involved?

What kind of search and rescue exercise do you think it was?

Those that I have been involved with are concerned with coordinating surface vessels in to a coordinated search pattern and liaising with shore assets like long range patrol aircraft

A Destroyer or Frigate will carry one helicopter. Not all ships have helicopters.

If you want to search you send a dedicated maritime patrol aircraft that has a much longer range, can loiter over the search area and is equipped and trained for the job. Anti Submarine helicopters have some rescue capability but they are not dedicated SAR aircraft.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It has three documents spanning seven pages. As the 'investigation' of the 'accident' is in the public domain, what's with the 'classified secret' stuff? To save the then President Bill Clinton's face..?

As already posted everything they do is classified. It will be signal intelligence, intercepts of radio and telephone traffic.
Spy stuff. They are not going to reveal what information they are getting from other countries signals traffic.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Sure it will be felt, or even ring out like a bell, as Captain_Swoop poetically puts it, but it couldn't by any stretch of imagination be confused with an explosion or an 'extremely heavy collision' as one survivor put it.

Why wouldn't it?


What 'extremely heavy collision' or 'explosion' do the passengers have experience with to calibrate their expectations?

 

[Andy_Ross]

The shore based helicoptors at Sweden and Finland were ill prepared and had to keep making return journeys as well as waiting for daylight. Several Swedish helicopters reached some life rafts but then discovered their hoisting mechanisms were insufficient for persons barely able to move and with no energy to grip anything.

As I said, there are plenty of places on the way to refuel in an emergency.

Why do you think the helicopters from Frigates and Destroyers would be any better placed to do the job?
They too would have to keep making return journeys to refuel as hovering uses it up very quickly and vastly reduces the range and endurance.
They would also have to return any survivors picked out of the water.
Why would they also not have to wait for daylight?
They are optimised as anti submarine aircraft with some secondary roles.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It was a fourteen nation exercise. Huge. If a distress signal comes through you act on it.

I think we are at cross purposes here. You were on about a submarine at an earlier date that you claim wasn't detected apart from it was.

Fourteen nations sounds big, but how many of them had actually contributed naval assets to the exercise?
We know that in heavy weather a warship would not be able to make more than 15 to 20 knots without suffering damage.
How long would they have taken to arrive at the search site?

 

[Andy_Ross]

It was an eight day exercise so plenty of time to allow for an emergency rescue of 1,000 passengers and crew in extreme distress.

What ships were available and how long would they have taken to arrive compared with local assets?