The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Axxman300]

No, the Germans think it was an explosion, which would suggest someone put a bomb or dynamite in the hull, or the contents of an illicit cargo ignited causing an explosion. The Germans claim to have tested a plate and discovered explosive material and as ratified by three different independent laboratories, separately, including San Antonio in Texas.

No, they did not.

First off, it's not the Germans, it was Der Spiegel, a German magazine. Second, nope:

HAMBURG, Germany (AP) _ An analysis of metal found no evidence of an explosion aboard the Estonia ferry that sank in the Baltic Sea in 1994, killing 852 aboard, a German newsmagazine reported Saturday.

Der Spiegel said the test, which it commissioned from Berlin’s Federal Institute for Material Research and Testing, showed changes in the structure of the metal were a result of ``mechanical stress.″

The pieces were taken from the ferry by a team of divers led by Gregg Bemis of Santa Fe, N.M., and German TV producer Jutta Rabe, who investigated the wreck in August, despite opposition from the Swedish government

https://apnews.com/article/10aeef52880c761c1af5be6fdee8a0f2

 

[Vixen]

It's amazing, isn't it?
Usually you only get a fringe reset after about 10-20 pages of 'discussion'.

Here it is about every new session, where the OP is present.

I am reporting the news and if you don't like the news, then there are ways to avoid it. Fact is, the case is being reviewed, and that means all of the criticisms of the report are also under review. It is a fact that the relatives of nine Estonian crew did write to the Swedish government claiming that they believed their relatives were still alive. The former Estonian Chief Public Prosecutor, Margus Kurm, has stated he believes it was a Swedish submarine collision. The German experts have stated they believe explosives, others, rogue Estonian/Russian gangsters. These are current affairs established facts. Not anything made up by me.

 

[Vixen]

You are working way too hard to paint yourself into a corner.

The Estonia's sister ship had been forced to repair the clamps on her bow cover because they had problems. After the sinking and investigation they found that the clamps were poorly designed, and incapable of taking the rough seas the ship encountered that night. The captain ignored the initial report of damage to the bow and water coming in, and then went to bed as scheduled due to shift change. Most of the crew drowned which should tell you how good they were at communication. The Estonia left port with an 8-degree list due to improper loading, and this made everything worse once out to sea where the was blowing in the direction of the list. The bow was not visible to the bridge crew due to the ship's design, and there was no warning light to alert them that the bow cover had come off. They never slowed down after the initial report of the bow cover coming loose which placed more stress on the damaged area causing it to completely fail.

[qimg]https://media.giphy.com/media/JmOcVPAapkfmCuBiGs/giphy.gif[/qimg]

Those are the facts.

You need to address them sans wild speculation about stolen Soviet hardware and non-existent submarines.

Not my speculation. Sweden admitted it stole Russian hardware via the Estonia during September 1994 specifically - it admitted to no more - ten years later in 2005. The German shipyard where it was built strongly dispute the bolts were of poor design.

It is true the crew were ill-prepared but that doesn't mean they were the cause.

 

[Axxman300]

So I am glad you agree it would have been grossly irresponsible to place this type of stuff on a passenger ferry. Oh wait, fast forward to 2005 and we discover the Swedish government puts on official record that it actually did do this during September 1994.

And?

1993 is not 1994.

Arms or material smuggling, if it occurred on this voyage, is a parallel issue, and not the cause of the sinking.

 

[Vixen]

They work wonderfully under calm conditions, but they had already loaded the ship incorrectly, so they were probably dead meat before they left port.

The JAIC report clearly states the cargo was properly distributed and lashed.

 

[Axxman300]

Not my speculation. Sweden admitted it stole Russian hardware via the Estonia during September 1994 specifically - it admitted to no more - ten years later in 2005. The German shipyard where it was built strongly dispute the bolts were of poor design.

It is true the crew were ill-prepared but that doesn't mean they were the cause.

The German ship builder disputed the findings? Big shock. Yet they and everyone else complied with the redesign orders didn't they? Yes they did.

The crew didn't do their jobs. Most were poorly trained. The fact that the bridge crew is still on the bridge suggests lousy communication between decks.

 

[Axxman300]

The JAIC report clearly states the cargo was properly distributed and lashed.

And yet it had a list.

 

[Vixen]

And?

1993 is not 1994.

Arms or material smuggling, if it occurred on this voyage, is a parallel issue, and not the cause of the sinking.

But it was never investigated. In a public inquiry something like that needs to be mentioned, even if only to reject it.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Maybe too large? Maybe the stuff on the ferry was illegal? A contaminant? (Note how they wanted to encase it in concrete.)

Maybe it was just an ordinary patrol submarine.

Maybe a rogue one. The Finns and the Swedes have caught Russian submarines schlepping about in their waters before.

Too large? how big do you think the subs are?

If there was a 'contaminant' that needed the ferry encased in concrete why hasn't it been detected?

Was it an 'ordinary patrol submarine' or was it an escort?
Why can't an 'ordinary patrol submarine' be used?

Why not use a different navy ship?

So no it wasn't a Swedish submarine but a 'rogue' one?

Why was it ramming the ferry if it was 'rogue'? did the crew want to die?

 

[Andy_Ross]

The sound level of the Baltic at 2m height waves (calm conditions*) is 78dB. The level at which your hearing will be damaged within a minute is 115dB. The threshold safe level - for example, in the workplace or DIY work - is 85dB over 24 hours.

Thus, you can see immediately that waves of a height between 6m - 8m as happened on the accident night would give a decibel level far higher than at calm levels. Survivors said they could not hear what other people were shouting on deck. Bear in mind, decibels is not a linear measure but an exponential one. In other words, for every 3 decibel increase, the intensity of sound doubles, as it is a measure of magnitude (rather like a telescope lens). Thus, water pouring into the car deck at 200 tonnes/per second all on one go into clanking metal would be deafening. The Herald of Free Enterprise capsized virtually straight away so if it was the case then it should have turned turtle within about five minutes.

*The waters of the Baltic are relatively shallow, between 300m to 30 metres deep, with the unlevel seabed giving rise to unexpected currents. Seas have higher waves than oceans in a storm for that reason (Pacific = 'calm').

Higher waves = louder noise.

Yes a storm can be noisy
I have never been deafened by a storm and I have been through plenty of North Atlantic storms that make the Baltic look like a paddling pool.

Your post makes no sense

 

[Andy_Ross]

...that the public knows of.

How would they hide them?

Upholder Class were the last RN diesel electrics, they were sold out to the Canadians in 1992

Upholder class — 4 boats, 1986–1992

 

[Andy_Ross]

Accidental collision perhaps. The Baltic has hazardous underwater currents. A Russian submarine had to be rescued after getting stuck in some rocks in Swedish waters.

Who knows why, except that it could well have happened.

If it was so hazardous why were they doing it?

Apart from sink the ferry, what was the sub supposed to do?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Exactly. However, the initial investigation did not take a few years. It took three years to issue their report, the conclusion of which had been predetermined from day one and made to fit.

It said the vessel was seaworthy but can't have been if the bow visor's locks and bolts were not fit for purpose.

It is a nordic tradition you bring home your dead to rest in your churchyard or memorial park. The USA brings home dead soldiers. A Norwegian specialist divers company offered to rescue the bodies for circa SEK250,000 (=€30K apx) within days of the accident in a not-for-profit exercise but were turned down flat by the Swedish government. The Finnish environment agency demanded that the wreck be removed from its environmentally protected area because of the threat of leaking fuel and oil. It even offered to send down divers to remove the fuel by means of pipes and tubes but the Swedes didn't want anyone diving down their except themselves, plus an outsourced company called Rockwater.

Do you think this is the only 'nordic' ship to have sunk?

There are lots of drowned 'nordic' sailors bodies at the bottom of the ocean

 

[Andy_Ross]

Isn't that the purpose of lashings?

They are to stop movement due to the usual rolling in a storm, they aren't to hold them if there is a serious list. How much do you think a loaded lorry weighs? What form did the lashings take?

 

[Andy_Ross]

No, the Germans think it was an explosion, which would suggest someone put a bomb or dynamite in the hull, or the contents of an illicit cargo ignited causing an explosion. The Germans claim to have tested a plate and discovered explosive material and as ratified by three different independent laboratories, separately, including San Antonio in Texas.

What 'explosive ,material' have they allegedly recovered?

What explosive material do you think would survive all those years in the sea?

Why would they have planted the bomb so far above the waterline?

Why does the hole look nothing like one caused by an explosion?

If I wanted to flood a ship by using small explosive devices I would have put them on the water intake and exhaust pipes, a ship like the Estonia will have a good number of them around the hull for engines, generators, fire main, bilge pumps etc. Blow them and down she goes. I would not have put it up above the waterline. Maybe the explosives were on the bow visor and ramp.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Don't forget, this was a commercial passenger liner and the uniform probably for the benefit of the passengers, as with commercial airline pilots.

How would the passengers see it?
Why would he be wearing it off watch and in bed?
Why would he put it on to go back topsides to deal with a sinking?
Do we know he even had it with him? My dads never left the wardrobe for 30 years.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Vixen's post about noise levels appears to be throwing around technical looking terms to try to appear authoritative yet when you look at what's said it's just that storms are loud and water pouring into a ship would be noisy.

One claimed fact that I'd nitpick is that 85dBa is not the exposure limit for 24 hours. It's the upper action level* based on an 8 hour working day. If your exposure is half as long the limit doubles or if it's twice as long the limit halves etc.

*The threshold where the employer is obliged to provide hearing protection and the employee is obliged to use it.

 

[erwinl]

Vixen's post about noise levels appears to be throwing around technical looking terms to try to appear authoritative yet when you look at what's said it's just that storms are loud and water pouring into a ship would be noisy.

One claimed fact that I'd nitpick is that 85dBa is not the exposure limit for 24 hours. It's the upper action level* based on an 8 hour working day. If your exposure is half as long the limit doubles or if it's twice as long the limit halves etc.

*The threshold where the employer is obliged to provide hearing protection and the employee is obliged to use it.

There are more claimed 'facts' in that post that are disputable at best.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

There are more claimed 'facts' in that post that are disputable at best.

Well, yes, but when expressed imprecisely they're hard to pin down. Vixen seemed to be saying Estonia shipped water at 200 tons per second and if that were true of the Herald of Free Enterprise it would have foundered in 5 minutes. That, to say the least, does not appear to be a claim based on calculation so the numbers appear to be serving some other purpose. Technical-looking decoration perhaps.

 

[Vixen]

I've taken the leave to mark only the factual parts of this post, as I can see.
All the rest is either opinion, conjecture of even simply false.
Maybe some of the other people can verify this?

the last sentence above is true in and of itself, but has not been shown to have happened as described here.

Here you go:

Air-borne sound generated by sea waves
Karl Bolin 1, Mats Åbom

This paper describes a semi-empiric model and measurements of air-borne sound generated by breaking sea waves. Measurements have been performed at the Baltic Sea. Shores with different slopes and sediment types have been investigated. Results showed that the sound pressure level increased from 60 dB at 0.4 m wave height to 78 dB at 2.0 m wave height. The 1/3 octave spectrum was dependent on the surf type. A scaling model based on the dissipated wave power and a surf similarity parameter is proposed and compared to measurements. The predictions show satisfactory agreement to the measurements.