The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

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All of the survivors - including crew - gave an account that because of the hypothermia threat - and they all watched as their fellow passengers died of this and they all helped keep each other awake, plus they were looking out for helicopters and ships so that they could send out a flare - a supply of which was included in the life raft - they were terrified of falling asleep (as hypothermia makes one extremely sleepy) and never waking up.

Thus, these guys were rescued in the morning of 28 Sept 1994, suffering from shock, hypothermia, broken bones, cramp and a complete lack of sleep for over 24 hours.

Do you really think that a few hours later in hospital one of the crew is able to weakly gasp in the throes of a waking dream, shivering and aching all over, 'Officer, it was bow visor what fell orf, due to the poor design of the bow visor lugs and weak bolts' <fx falls back into longed for slumber>


Give us a break!

To be clear, you're claiming that hypothermia effects everyone equally, and that those who saw the bow cover gone cannot be trusted due to hypothermia...but the ONE passenger who says he saw the bow cover in place as the ship sank is 100% credible.

Look, there are two Navy guys active in this thread so they'll have to correct my work, but WHERE and WHO you are on a ship when things go sideways will inform what you experience, and what you believe to be true. Someone who rides a ferry regularly (a passenger) is not equal to a seasoned crew member. Not all crew members are created equally either, and their testimonies must be weighed against their total experience, and their knowledge of ship's operations beyond their stated skill-set (this is why the US Navy encourages crew members to learn about as many aspects of their ship as possible. Those who do earn a dolphin pin.)

So an officer is going to take the extra time to observe his damaged vessel as time permits since he's going to be in the hot seat for the next few years answering questions at inquests, investigations, and lawsuits. A passenger is going to be in a state of panic, and is going to be focused on not drowning. Guess whose testimony carries more weight?

And this post is indicative of how you paint yourself into a corner. The Estonoia sank fast because the bow cover failed or was torn loose, or off. A big hole in the hull is conducive to rapid sinking in a bad storm.

Again, why a submarine? Why not a rogue wave? The right wave at the right angle would damage the bow cover.
 
Imagine for a moment that it isn't "very obvious". Can you explain why it had to be so? Was it somehow impossible that he could survive the humiliation of have been seen to have repeated early reports which later turned out to be incorrect?

You appear to be inviting us to infer that after he said the bow visor had failed, if that turned out to be mistaken the evidence would have to be faked to make it seem true. Well, why?

And again, let us not forget that Carl Bildt was the very lamest of ducks when all of this happened. He was due to leave office in a matter of days. A mere 10 days after the disaster, he was no longer in charge of anything except a mouthy opposition in the Riksdag.
 
I believe that was Richard Gage.
But with Bjorkman. Who knows what he believes as well?

No it was, he posted here as Heiwa or something.

He also proposed some kind of test involving bathroom scales I think?
 
It should be very obvious that Carl Bildt having said it was the bow visor, of course it had to be found without it.

Kari Lehtola, in charge of the Finnish side sent out an early memo that a dark object as picked up by sonar imaging lay just below the bulbous nose of the wreck and fit the exact dimensions and description of the bow visor, as advised by the technical/scientific bods. This was 2 Oct 1994.


Then Lehtola sent a memo date 5.10 1994 indicating that the visor was 'still being searched for' even though it had already been found next to the vessel, asking the Swedish Navy to help look for it.

On the 10 Oct 1994 memos show Lehtola claiming that the object located next to the vessel was 'just a large piece of steel plating' (and has never been mentioned again by the JAIC or by anybody else)

On the 12 October 1994 he writes:




Yet it had already been found and as drawn in detail from sonar imaging on the 9th October as of the spot of the wreck.

On the 14th October, the JAIC employed the services of Swedish mine sweeping experts - indicating there were Swedish mines planted in the area, which had to be cleared first.

18 Oct 1994, the visor bow was 'finally found' 0.85 nautical miles to the west of the wreckage. But it had already been found 2 Oct 1994.

The only explanation for this is that the powers influencing the JIAC found it inconvenient for the bow visor to be with the ship,

Why is this the only explanation? How did you conclude that this is the only explanation? What other explanations did you consider, and with what expertise and evidence?

Also, what were the "powers influencing the JAIC" at this point? You do realize that the Swedish government changed in this time period, right? That Carl Bildt was no longer in charge by 18 October? Nor 8 October for that matter?
 
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Again, why a submarine? Why not a rogue wave? The right wave at the right angle would damage the bow cover.

Many years of constant battering in storms would also stress the components and could lead to failure.
 
Many years of constant battering in storms would also stress the components and could lead to failure.
It's interesting to note that two of the ships that participated in the rescue, the Mariella and Silja Europa, had both previously suffered damages to their bow visor hinges.

I'm sure they arranged for it as a cover-up.
 
All of the survivors - including crew - gave an account that because of the hypothermia threat - and they all watched as their fellow passengers died of this and they all helped keep each other awake, plus they were looking out for helicopters and ships so that they could send out a flare - a supply of which was included in the life raft - they were terrified of falling asleep (as hypothermia makes one extremely sleepy) and never waking up.

Thus, these guys were rescued in the morning of 28 Sept 1994, suffering from shock, hypothermia, broken bones, cramp and a complete lack of sleep for over 24 hours.

Do you really think that a few hours later in hospital one of the crew is able to weakly gasp in the throes of a waking dream, shivering and aching all over, 'Officer, it was bow visor what fell orf, due to the poor design of the bow visor lugs and weak bolts' <fx falls back into longed for slumber>

This sounds more like a response to what I posted earlier than it does a response to Captain Swoop's request for evidence that it was a submarine.

The JAIC report states that certain crew members were interviewed on the 28th. It also states that those crew members reported seeing the bow visor missing.

I see no reason to conclude that they are lying, yet they would need to be for your proposed Carl Bildt cover up story to work. I think it's far more likely that you're just wrong.
 
No it was, he posted here as Heiwa or something.

He also proposed some kind of test involving bathroom scales I think?

Found it!

I thought Bazant meant by rigid is indestructible or at least stronger than the lower structure that apparently was not rigid. Some people think rigid means deficient in or devoid of flexibility and an object with such characteristics is indestructible. If it cannot flex, it cannot be changed. Indestructible. I agree.

Dry pasta is very flexible - it cracks immediately when a force is applied to it. Just drop it on the floor.

Rigid objects do not exist in the real world.

But doing structural analysis you always apply a rigid support to the structure you study. Reason is to ensure that it doesn't fly away, when loads are applied. If all loads balance, there is no problem - the structure doesn't fly away - balance. If loads, by mistake, do not balance, you will see that a balance force develops at the rigid support to take accout of the imbalance. If you really look at the rigid support - which has 0 m² contact surface, you will see that the stress there is infinite; force divided by 0 m² becomes infinite stress!. A rigid support evidenty can withstand infinite stress - no flexibility - but using clear thinking you know that your analysis is incorrect.

I have done plenty of structural analysises and rule 1 is to ensure that there is balance of forces. I have even been a teacher of structural analysis and rule 1b is to check that the pupils models are in balance. Very often they are not.

The beauty with structural analysis is that in every problem all forces balance ... all the time.

Bazant is cheating in his analysis. He assumes that the upper block suddenly becomes rigid , i.e. will not flex due to forces applied to it (by the lower structure) at contact. It means that infinite stresses are applied to the upper block at contact ... but that the upper block remains intact. Only the lower structure is affected - shock waves, crush fronts, etc. and such nonsense.

In the real world such nonsense does not happen. Actually the first object to get affected is the moving upper block. It may bounce, get damaged, etc. It always ends in arrest!

Look again at the videos. You do not see any impact upper block/lower structure. Before impact the upper block implodes, horizontal forces are applied to it inwards and sucks down the roof + mast. Very strange.

Later you see a lot of structural parts being ejected horizontally outwards from the lower structure all the time (through the smoke screen) + air jets. Gravity is a vertical force. The horizontal ejections are caused by some other energy - applied in another direction. Don't invent that compressed air ejected parts 200 meters sideways.

And the amount of dust!! To produce dust particles, you must produce a lot of fractures in the structures involved ... and it consumes plenty of energy. Every fracture is molecules ripped away from one another in the structure and at the tip of the fracture temperature is very high ... to permit the molecules to separate. Requires plenty of energy to produce dust.

We know the max energy applied if the upper block dropped. 1.2 GJ or 41 litres of diesel oil. To produce the dust you see on the videos I estimate you need 1000X + that energy. And I wonder where it came from;

Of course, I also wonder why Bazant becomes a con man to fool you. A retired professor. Why on earth should he put his nose into this? Maybe he has financial problems or expensive habits. Con men usually have those.

Anyway - Bazant knows little about structural (damage) analysis. That's clear.

Thanks again for starting the thread. A good opportunity to improve your arguments to debunk Bazant ... and NIST. So just carry on.

PS - Many posters are on my ignore list due to stupid posts in the past so there is no answer from me. Send PM (+ excuse) and I will remove you from the ignore list. Maybe you get an answer then.

You really want to rely on this moron Vixen?
 
It's in Chapter 6 of the final report, which apparently you still haven't bothered to look at.

These would be the two crew members who claimed they climbed down the car ramp door to get to the sea, via the near horizontal port side. Whilst about 300 survivors (half of whom died) had gathered there, Sillaste, after having changed his story about running up from the engine room on floor 0 to Deck 7 in two minutes flat whilst the boat was listed at 30° - 70° to having climbed up the funnel chimney instead, would have come out on the deck (he claimed he was on his way to sort out the emergency generator nearby) which was now a wall), as that is how people could stand on the ship's side. Maybe at 30° he could crawl up on his hands and knees, but one has to be sceptical he managed it on a 70° - 90° lilt. Anyway even if perchance he had made it within the very short time frame between 1:15 and 1:30, there is no way he climbed down the car ramp, using the wedges therein as steps, having accessed it from Port, especially in the dark of night with heavy waves lashing at the boat. Even if he did, that can still be done with the bow visor raised slightly or fully.
 

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These would be the two crew members who claimed they climbed down the car ramp door to get to the sea, via the near horizontal port side.

There are at least four crewmen mentioned in the report who saw the bow visor missing. I was posting from recollection earlier, and could only trust myself to remember two. All of these were interviewed on the 29th. You're welcome to have a go at all of them if you like. And they weren't even the only crew members who thought something was amiss with the bow visor at the time.

It doesn't matter how "skeptical" you are of the contents of their testimony (and I notice that you're pretty selective of which eyewitnesses to be "skeptical" of. Where is your skepticism of Paul Barney?); the point is, they told people that day that they saw the bow visor missing. Reliable or not, there is nothing suspicious about Carl Bildt having heard that story and repeating it to the press that evening, which if you recall, was how this current exchange got started.

Again, if you wish to criticize Bildt for jumping on initial reports and rushing to judgement, you might have some case, but there is no basis for the suggestion that he made up the bow visor as some sort of "cover story" before he'd even heard anything.
 
And why would the PM of Sweden cover it up? He was known for being a bit anti Russia/SU.

Carl Bildt was right up CIA's backside (see wikileaks), consulted them about forming a coalition government, arranged for ex-Soviet military material to be transported on the Estonia probably to share with them, was told of the sinking very quickly, probably by his intelligence agents and within a day had a perfect cover up story based on the Herald of Free Enterprise. This was obviously (as the wreck hadn't even yet been found) his patronising idea of sending out this story and labelling the true cause 'Classified Top Secret'.

Kari Lehtola of Finland played along with it, found the bow visor as sonar imaged beneath the bulbous bow and said so in a memo, together with the drawing of it. As the ship was turned 120°, near upside down, then of course the bow visor would be in its natural position beneath the bulbous nose. Whoops. He then had to retract this information and claim they were 'still looking' but if they thought they had found it, why would they still be looking.

Carl Bildt, in addition, appointed the Swedish head of the JAIC and because Sweden had the most victims, 556, it naturally assumed a dominant role.

Why would Bildt cover it up? Because it was a joint Swedish-UK intelligence operation shadowing the boat and he decided the Swedish pesky peasants who have kept on rising in revolt throughout Sweden's history had no right to know and that they'd be happy with a non-answer.
 
You're still trying to use Anders Björkman as if he was were a trusted expert, even though you've learned not to cite him.

No, this time I am referring to Werner Hummel, head of Marine Claims Partner, in Hamburg, Germany, acting for Meyer Werft shipbuilders. He says it is 'simple physics'.
 
A missing bow is a hull breach.

There are lots of openings in a hull already. Engine rooms and machinery spaces have ventilators, air intakes for engines, exhausts, water intakes and outlets. Passenger ships have open stairwells and windows.

A 'breach' caused by a collision or grounding isn't needed. Two ships a week sink, plenty of them to flooding without a hull breach.

Even if there was a problem with the bow, that doesn't ipso facto mean it was the cause of the accident.
 
Carl Bildt was right up CIA's backside (see wikileaks), consulted them about forming a coalition government, arranged for ex-Soviet military material to be transported on the Estonia probably to share with them, was told of the sinking very quickly, probably by his intelligence agents and within a day had a perfect cover up story based on the Herald of Free Enterprise. This was obviously (as the wreck hadn't even yet been found) his patronising idea of sending out this story and labelling the true cause 'Classified Top Secret'.

Kari Lehtola of Finland played along with it, found the bow visor as sonar imaged beneath the bulbous bow and said so in a memo, together with the drawing of it. As the ship was turned 120°, near upside down, then of course the bow visor would be in its natural position beneath the bulbous nose. Whoops. He then had to retract this information and claim they were 'still looking' but if they thought they had found it, why would they still be looking.

Carl Bildt, in addition, appointed the Swedish head of the JAIC and because Sweden had the most victims, 556, it naturally assumed a dominant role.

Why would Bildt cover it up? Because it was a joint Swedish-UK intelligence operation shadowing the boat and he decided the Swedish pesky peasants who have kept on rising in revolt throughout Sweden's history had no right to know and that they'd be happy with a non-answer.

That's a nice story. Now explain why Ingvar Carlsson would cover it up.
 
The Independent Fact Group say in their mission that they are independently looking at various details. They are not claiming to put forward an alternate theory.
Yes, this forum is quite acquainted with the "I'm not taking a position" strategy.
 
If the ship sank because it was rammed by a sub and the hull flooded rather than taking thousands of tons of water on to the car deck, why would it completely capsize?

If it was flooding from the lower decks up it would just settle in in the water.

Also what is the importance of the mysterious crew members if it was hit by a Swedish sub?

If it was rammed by a sub and its side penetrated in the impact, then this explains why it sank so fast without capsizing or turtling.

As for the so-called 'missing crew' IMV this is likely due to clerical error rather than that these nine people really were rescued. However, an initial search by divers found three bodies on the bridge, which they could have easily identified simply by the insignia on the uniforms. There was one body under a cabinet described as having a tattoo on his or her hand but no crew fit that description. Why didn't they even attempt to identify the captain Andresson, if he was indeed there, yet they went to great pains looking for a breif case or suitcase in his cabin, accidently searching the cabin of someone called Voronin, as they had inadvertently juxtaposed a couple of numbers in the cabin numbers. So they searched his cabin but made no attempt to identify the dead on the bridge, when it was easy enough from their uniforms. The divers said the bodies were intact, still wearing clothes and what have you.

Andresson was trained at a Soviet naval school and was an old-style authoritarian. crew had to OK things with him first and could not use their own initiative, as that was the Russian way.

As captain he has to be held responsible for what goes on on his ship. Why didn't he take the May Day call and why Captain Tammes, third mate?


Also, in a disaster such as this, you can't assume that 'it was just an accident' you have to consider the possibility of crew involvement, even it just to rule out sabotage or criminal involvement of any kind.
 
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