The Sinking of MS Estonia: Case Re-Opened

[Andy_Ross]

So one would think a significant list should alarm people enough they wouldn't stop to brush their teeth..

Stabilisers would do nothing to stop a list caused by a ship taking on water.

 

[blutoski]

So one would think a significant list should alarm people enough they wouldn't stop to brush their teeth.

However, I am well aware that some people do things they would do by rote in emergencies. There was a documentary on survivors and I recall one woman who made it out of a burning jet by climbing over the seat backs to the emergency escape because people in the aisle were getting their carry on out of the bins. Only a few people made it out of the plane.

I'm the kind of person who would have climbed over the seat backs. And I bet a lot of people would be the same if they were educated about not stopping to do rote things.

The analysis I read a few years ago was literally titled, "The Quick and the Dead"

And yeah, the chance of survival was increased by orders of magnitude by simply being concerned enough about the sound of the hatch giving way to get on top of things and scoot up to the deck in the middle of the night just in case, instead of rolling over and going back to sleep.

 

[llwyd]

There were no explosions, no bombs, no ramming, no signs of sabotage. There was smuggling going on on a ship that then sunk in a storm as its visor gave way and dropped and damaged the ramp in the process. This has been investigated and reported beyond reasonable doubt.

So, yes, this is the usual consipiracy excrement and cynical manipulation of survivors' and relatives' emotions and grief for financial gain. Disgusting.

 

[llwyd]

The analysis I read a few years ago was literally titled, "The Quick and the Dead"

And yeah, the chance of survival was increased by orders of magnitude by simply being concerned enough about the sound of the hatch giving way to get on top of things and scoot up to the deck in the middle of the night just in case, instead of rolling over and going back to sleep.

I posted this rather harrowing story earlier in the thread:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/05/a-sea-story/302940/

Fitness and youth were obviously very important in survival. Also being sober. But also very important was alertness to the crisis (the crew really failed in the "evacuation" - there basically was no clear general alert and effort) plus crucially the ability to take decisions and act, and not freeze. Actually relatively many people survived from the lowermost decks as they could better hear the loud clangs and react immediately by going up.

And, very sad to say, not to have dependants. The story above is really worth a read but it is grim, grim stuff.

 

[Vixen]

So one would think a significant list should alarm people enough they wouldn't stop to brush their teeth.

However, I am well aware that some people do things they would do by rote in emergencies. There was a documentary on survivors and I recall one woman who made it out of a burning jet by climbing over the seat backs to the emergency escape because people in the aisle were getting their carry on out of the bins. Only a few people made it out of the plane.

I'm the kind of person who would have climbed over the seat backs. And I bet a lot of people would be the same if they were educated about not stopping to do rote things.

Thing is, this was the Baltic in the north (N59°) at the end of September, on a par with Hudson Bay or Alaska. The water was cold enough for hypothermia to set in - and indeed, many people who made it to an inflatable life raft, died of it - so whilst the crew and boating people knew to put on warm clothing and waterproof jacket even if heavy, most of the passengers did escape wearing just their underwear or night clothing, which didn't augur well. So if you are ever in that situation, you usually have time to pull on some decent outer clothing to stay warm.

 

[Vixen]

There was no ammunition or Russian secret electronics mentioned anywhere.

It's fantasy.

It is well-documented in the public domain and in the report. Your denying it doesn't change this established fact.

Johan Hirschfeldt, president of the Svea Court of Appeals, prepared the report. He declined to elaborate on the exact nature of the equipment shipped on Estonia, calling the information classified. He also did not say how the Swedish military came into possession of the Russian equipment, saying it was outside the scope of his investigation.

ibid

 

[Vixen]

I posted this rather harrowing story earlier in the thread:

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/05/a-sea-story/302940/

Fitness and youth were obviously very important in survival. Also being sober. But also very important was alertness to the crisis (the crew really failed in the "evacuation" - there basically was no clear general alert and effort) plus crucially the ability to take decisions and act, and not freeze. Actually relatively many people survived from the lowermost decks as they could better hear the loud clangs and react immediately by going up.

And, very sad to say, not to have dependants. The story above is really worth a read but it is grim, grim stuff.

...And not to be female, as 80% of the survivors were male, despite females making up 60% of the passenger and crew list.

 

[Vixen]

You are just making stuff up as you go along.

Feel free to be rude.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Stabilisers would do nothing to stop a list caused by a ship taking on water.

Yeah, that's what happened. The ship started to list and this particular man stopped to brush his teeth. He got out and survived to tell us this but his mother and girlfriend did not get out.

 

[llwyd]

...And not to be female, as 80% of the survivors were male, despite females making up 60% of the passenger and crew list.

Yep, moving there required strength and probably a certain ruthlessness too. I prefer not to imagine any child families, hopefully there were only a few of them.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It is well-documented in the public domain and in the report. Your denying it doesn't change this established fact.

ibid

There is no evidence that any secret cargo of Russian military electronics was aboard the ship.

It is not an 'established fact' any more than the claims for 'Thermite' being used to demolish the WTC.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Feel free to be rude.

If you think it's rude report the post.

It would be easier to stop reporting unproven speculation as fact.

 

[Architect]

I was amongst Heiwa's sparring partners and, Vixen, you would be well advised to treat everything he says with the greatest degree of cation notwithstanding his apparent qualifications in naval architecture: a complete disregard for facts and a willingness to simply ignore anything which does not suit his judgement. Others will remember his "wager" in respect of 911.


Which takes us to the problem that Captain Swoop identifies: the paucity of hard evidence in respect of alternative interpretations for the sinking. That may, of course, be because of some cover-up but if there is no evidence then how do the proponents of such arguments arrive at their positions? What underpins the speculation? My concern is that we see a lot of arguments from incredulity, for example those who doubt that the sea-bed impact(s) could lead to deformation and rupture of hull sections.


In summary, therefore, it would be helpful if unproven specualtion was replaced with a more fact-based discussion. But don't rely on anything Heiwa says to support that.

 

[Vixen]

If you think it's rude report the post.

It would be easier to stop reporting unproven speculation as fact.

This is the ship we used to travel to Finland by via Tilbury. How is it 'fantasy' that we were tossed like a bag of potatoes in a storm?

 

[Vixen]

Ramp door to car deck found open

Latest update: The investigators have now found that the ramp to the car deck, which was presumed sealed, with a metre gap at the top, distorted by the bow visor 'falling off', is wide open, with a clear view into the car deck.

• The M / S Estonian car ramp has opened, revealing a view of the car deck. According to previous information, the ramp has been closed.
• The director of the Accident Investigation Board does not want to speculate whether the observation may have anything to do with the sinking of Estonia.
• The study by Estonia and Sweden is scheduled for completion in October 2022.
Rene Arikas, director of the Estonian Accident Investigation Board, said yesterday that no unusual things have been found in the diving investigations of M / S Estonia.
Today , however, on Thursday, the Estonian broadcaster ERR reported that diving work has revealed that the car ramp of a passenger ship that sank in 1994 is fully open.
- It lies on the starboard side of the ship, partly against the hull. The inside of the car deck is visible, and various debris is visible there, Arikas describes.
The finding is exceptional in the sense that the ramp mentioned in previous studies has only been partially open.
The car deck has also been seen in the past only through a small gap.
- Today we have full visibility on the car deck, Arikas continues.
Why did the ramp come off?
The accident on September 28, 1994, which claimed 852 lives, has previously been explained with a broken bow visor.
It has been said to have released seawater onto the car deck, which in turn is believed to have led to the ship sinking.
In an interview with ERR, Arikas did not want to speculate on the reasons for the opening of the car ramp or whether the opening took place only after the ship sank.
- From this day on, we can only detect that the ramp is not attached to the hinges.
According to Margus Kurm , who led the previous Estonian survey of Estonia in 2005-2009 , the car ramp was closed when the ship sank in 1994.
He says it’s hard to believe the ramp would have fallen down by itself.
In an interview with Estonian Õhtuleht, Kurm also added that he believes the ramp has been removed afterwards.
According to Kurmi's own theory, the cause of Estonia's sinking is a collision with a submarine.
New cracks
The investigation, which has now lasted a total of six days, is the result of the documentary Estonia - A Revolutionary Discovery , which premiered on Swedish television last year and showed a picture of the cracks in a wreck lying on the seabed.
Also on Monday of this week, two new cracks, about 10-15 meters in size, were found in the Estonian trunk.
It is still unclear whether the damage occurred during or after the sinking of the ship.
- We have now mapped the entire area around the wreck and the seabed below the ship's sinking route, Arikas said yesterday on Wednesday.
Thanks to diving research, the researchers have been able to get a more accurate picture of the Estonian wreck thanks to, among other things, up-to-date 3D modeling.
The diving work is related to a research project that is scheduled to continue in the spring.
Arikas has estimated that the study will last until October 2022, but he also says it is possible that the schedule will be stretched.

google translate
https://www.iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/878dab5d-4ab2-4b64-9101-7c4a6db7be8b

 

[Vixen]

I was amongst Heiwa's sparring partners and, Vixen, you would be well advised to treat everything he says with the greatest degree of cation notwithstanding his apparent qualifications in naval architecture: a complete disregard for facts and a willingness to simply ignore anything which does not suit his judgement. Others will remember his "wager" in respect of 911.


Which takes us to the problem that Captain Swoop identifies: the paucity of hard evidence in respect of alternative interpretations for the sinking. That may, of course, be because of some cover-up but if there is no evidence then how do the proponents of such arguments arrive at their positions? What underpins the speculation? My concern is that we see a lot of arguments from incredulity, for example those who doubt that the sea-bed impact(s) could lead to deformation and rupture of hull sections.


In summary, therefore, it would be helpful if unproven specualtion was replaced with a more fact-based discussion. But don't rely on anything Heiwa says to support that.

The only reference to that person was his riddle how did 2,000 cubic metres of potential water on the car deck capsize when there was 18,000 cubic metres of air below. He is a naval architect and ship surveyor so it seems he might know about such calculations.

As for his interest in JFK or 9/11, what is 'nutcase' about that, when millions of people still show an interest in JFK, given the sheer number of documentaries that still come out. If he is indeed mentally ill, that doesn't mean he is not able to remain an expert in his field.

 

[Andy_Ross]

This is the ship we used to travel to Finland by via Tilbury. How is it 'fantasy' that we were tossed like a bag of potatoes in a storm?

Fantasy is your Russian weapons speculation.

Stabilisers will not stop you being tossed like a bag of potatoes in a storm'.
They reduce short pitch beam rolling for passenger comfort.

They are useless in a head or stern sea, they are useless, they will not damp out storm effects.

 

[Andy_Ross]

The only reference to that person was his riddle how did 2,000 cubic metres of potential water on the car deck capsize when there was 18,000 cubic metres of air below. He is a naval architect and ship surveyor so it seems he might know about such calculations.

As for his interest in JFK or 9/11, what is 'nutcase' about that, when millions of people still show an interest in JFK, given the sheer number of documentaries that still come out. If he is indeed mentally ill, that doesn't mean he is not able to remain an expert in his field.

2,000 cubic meters of seawater is over 2,000 tons.
Having 2,000 tons of water above a buoyant hull is the worst place to have flooding.
When a ship rolls it will move to the lower side increasing the roll.
It is called 'free surface effect'
A partially filled compartment or tank is a dangerous thing. As fuel is used from a tank it is replaced with water to keep it full, it also has baffle plates to reduce and slow any movement.
2000 tons of water on a ferry car deck is the worst situation it could be in.

https://www.marineinsight.com/naval-architecture/ship-stability-makes-ship-unstable/

 

[Vixen]

Fantasy is your Russian weapons speculation.

Stabilisers will not stop you being tossed like a bag of potatoes in a storm'.
They reduce short pitch beam rolling for passenger comfort.

They are useless in a head or stern sea, they are useless, they will not damp out storm effects.

I haven't speculated it. The Swedish government has confirmed it.

I never claimed stabilisers did one thing or another.

Your comment was indeed directly aimed at my comment, so don't try to pretend it was about Russian weapons.

 

[Vixen]

2,000 cubic meters of seawater is over 2,000 tons.
Having 2,000 tons of water above a buoyant hull is the worst place to have flooding.
When a ship rolls it will move to the lower side increasing the roll.
It is called 'free surface effect'
A partially filled compartment or tank is a dangerous thing. As fuel is used from a tank it is replaced with water to keep it full, it also has baffle plates to reduce and slow any movement.
2000 tons of water on a ferry car deck is the worst situation it could be in.

https://www.marineinsight.com/naval-architecture/ship-stability-makes-ship-unstable/

OK, but such a ship shouldn't sink within thirty minutes.