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Cont: The Trump Presidency: Part 27

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Segnosaur said:
Not saying that it is impossible for Trump to win, but suggesting that 2016 is indicative of his chances in 2024 may be problematic for a few reasons:

- His opponent (Clinton) was someone who had been subject to character assassination for over a decade. (I know republicans will try to paint all Democrats as "commie-socialists", but I think the attacks on Clinton were much more significant than against most potential Democratic candidates)

- His lack of political history in 2016 allowed people to make favorable assumptions about how he would govern. (He was actually seen as more of a moderate than Clinton was in the 2016 election, and many of his promises were vague enough that people could read in almost anything into them.) After 4 years though, we know exactly what he is like.... he didn't become "more presidential" after the election, and he was more interested in tax cuts than improving health care. And lets face it, he left office when the economy was struggling.

- Democrats/the media/etc. are more aware of the risks of having him back in power. (In 2016, left-wing voters might have decided to sit things out or vote 3rd party, thinking "Clinton has this in the bag/what harm could Trump do". Now, they will be more likely to rally around the Democratic candidate as the best way to keep Trump out of office. And in 2016, the media was treating him with kid gloves, which will be less likely to happen now.)
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I don't know, this sounds way too optimistic...
 
Ladewig said:
Trump would win if enough people hated his opponent more than they hate him.
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Hillary's gone. It's a shame for the GOP, because they had decades to demonize her. There's now no chance they have the time to groom someone to serve their purposes as well.
 
trustbutverify said:
He starts out with a fairly large, passionate base guaranteed to vote for him no matter what he says or does because they are in love. There's no potential opponent who can say the same. It doesn't mean he will win, but it certainly means he can.
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Yeah, but he sold a lot of them out too. I don't think that group is nearly as big as it was in November.
 
Stacyhs said:
Did I say Trump never used the N word in his life? No. I said "Michael Cohen says he never heard Trump use the N word even though he said lots of other racist things." You then declared that "Cohen was his lawyer, not his confidant" and then reinforced that with repeating that Cohen "was a fixer, not a confidant. " You were able to make that declaration from reading a "couple extracts from his book" in opposition to the consensus of... oh....just about everyone else.

So let me ask you, the things that Cohen fixed like the Stormy Daniels payment and, 'fixing' that with his wife Melania, and the myriad other personal things you don't know about because you didn't read his book: just how did he do all that without Trump taking him into his confidence?
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Simple. Orders. "Make her an offer she can't refuse."

Don't forget that Donny has no friends, he just has people who do stuff for him. Nobody is really his confidant. They are just slightly closer acquaintances until such time as Donny no longer needs them for whatever they do. Ask his previous wives.
 
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Norman Alexander said:
Simple. Orders. "Make her an offer she can't refuse."

Don't forget that Donny has no friends, he just has people who do stuff for him. Nobody is really his confidant. They are just slightly closer acquaintances until such time as Donny no longer needs them for whatever they do. Ask his previous wives.
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You're conflating 'friend' with 'confidant'. I never said Trump was Cohen's 'friend'; I said Cohen was his confidant. A 'friend' assumes loyalty which Trump does not know the meaning of. Sorry, Norman, but you're arguing from a point of ignorance as you haven't read Cohen's book. You don't know what was involved. Instead of trying to defend the hill you've taken a stand on, try reading Disloyal and then maybe you can make a better argument.
 
Stacyhs said:
It would be ridiculous for me, or anyone, to claim that Trump as never used the N word in his entire life. It would be an impossible claim to prove.
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Maybe not for his entire life, but you seemed to imply he had never used it within the past few decades.
What I can say is that he is certainly not known for using it and it has not been something that he's been reported as saying by those writing tell all books about him.
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Again, a certain amount of compartmentalization is likely in play.

Nobody is claiming he uses the N-word constantly, like he was reading the script from Blazing saddles. But if you use clean vocabulary for 9 out of 10 people but use the N-word only with the tenth, and they have no reason to speak out, then he will look 'cleaner' than he really is.
So what we've got is rumors that Trump used the word once back in 2010. And Mary Trump saying she heard it among family members years ago. That's it. What we haven't got is people who worked closely with him and later turned on him who have come forward and said they have heard him using that word although still saying he is a racist pig.
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In addition to Mary Trump (who would probably have the best insight into whether he would have used the word in private company, since at the time Trump would have been in the presence of other potential racists in his family), you also have Omarosa (who admittedly doesn't exactly have a lot of credibility), Tom Arnold, plus your very own reference contains a statement from a contestant on The Apprentice who says they heard him use it in person.

And Pen Jillette didn't claim he heard Trump use the N-word, but did say he heard him use other racist language (more than what he used on the campaign trail).

So that's 5 people who claimed Trump used the N-word or similar racial slurs.
 
Belz... said:
Don't think so. More than 40% of Republicans maybe. That's a shrinking demographic.
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No, he's got the overwhelming majority of Repugnican voters.
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He has an overwhelming majority of support among republican voters, but republicans as a whole are making up a smaller amount of the electorate. So, he has a bigger piece of a shrinking pie.

In the old days, if a republican didn't like their presidential candidate, they'd still stick around the party. But Trumpism is actually driving people out of the party.
 
trustbutverify said:
He starts out with a fairly large, passionate base guaranteed to vote for him no matter what he says or does because they are in love. There's no potential opponent who can say the same. It doesn't mean he will win, but it certainly means he can.
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He would need more than just the hardcore MAGAchud base to win. He'd have to appeal to at least some moderates (something less likely after seeing what Trump is really like), and/or he'd have to have Democratic voters sit out (which is unlikely since they hate Trump now.)

Yeah, Trump might pull in 40-45% of the votes, and those voters will probably never abandon der fuhrer. But he will have little opportunity to grow past that.
 
Not sure why it's so important whether or not Trump ever used the n word, it's not like it would put off the sort of people who vote for him if he did.
 
Pixel42 said:
Not sure why it's so important whether or not Trump ever used the n word, it's not like it would put off the sort of people who vote for him if he did.
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Again, it wouldn't necessarily affect his support with the hardcore MAGAchud...

But it may just have an effect on what little support he has remaining among moderate voters... the ones who might have done some mental gymnastics to justify how Trump isn't really a racist for whatever reason (such as "Mexico isn't a race"). The use of the N-word has a certain gravitas to it that makes it a little harder to dismiss.
 
Segnosaur said:
Maybe not for his entire life, but you seemed to imply he had never used it within the past few decades.
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No, YOU inferred that. Again: I said Michael Cohen said he had never heard him use it in the TEN years he was his personal lawyer and confidant but had heard him make many other racist remarks. Where you got "the past few decades", I don't know). You continue to put your own meaning to my post. Please stop.

Again, a certain amount of compartmentalization is likely in play.

Nobody is claiming he uses the N-word constantly, like he was reading the script from Blazing saddles. But if you use clean vocabulary for 9 out of 10 people but use the N-word only with the tenth, and they have no reason to speak out, then he will look 'cleaner' than he really is.
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The original claim that I responded to was this:

Skeptic Ginger said:
I think so. Lots of N-words and C-words among other racist and sexist things.
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As I've shown, this is not the case.

In addition to Mary Trump (who would probably have the best insight into whether he would have used the word in private company, since at the time Trump would have been in the presence of other potential racists in his family), you also have Omarosa (who admittedly doesn't exactly have a lot of credibility), Tom Arnold, plus your very own reference contains a statement from a contestant on The Apprentice who says they heard him use it in person.
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I've already acknowledged that Mary Trump may have heard him use it around family members years ago. Omarosa and Tom Arnold both had books they were selling. Neither she nor Tom Arnold have the reputation for being credible truth tellers. Arnold even goes so far as to claim that "(Trump) would call my house with Mark Burnett and beg me to do 'The Apprentice'...The Apprentice' is such a crappy show that I wouldn't do it... That says a lot because I do everything." I find that very difficult to believe.

I have to wonder just how did Omarosa hear that tape? She was universally despised on the set of The Apprentice so how would she have gained access to that tape? Tom Arnold also had a Viceland show he was hawking at the time called The Hunt for the Trump Tapes. He went so far as to get into a pushing match with Burnett at a fundraiser the night before the Emmy Awards in 2018 to get publicity for it. Lots of self-interest there for both Omarosa and Arnold.

"... plus your very own reference contains a statement from a contestant on The Apprentice who says they heard him use it in person."

Read it again. Peete does NOT say she heard Trump say it herself. She says she was later told he said it.

And Pen Jillette didn't claim he heard Trump use the N-word, but did say he heard him use other racist language (more than what he used on the campaign trail).

So that's 5 people who claimed Trump used the N-word or similar racial slurs.
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NO, that's not 5 people "people who claimed Trump used the N-word" at all. Your attempt to combine the use of the N word along with the use of "similar racial slurs" is noted. Why are you bringing in the fact that Trump has used 'similar racial slurs' when I have never denied Trump has used racist language and is a racist? In fact, I've made that very clear. I am talking only about his use of the N-word. Accordingly:

That's 1 credible person (Mary Trump) whom I've already acknowledged, 2 people (Omarosa and Arnold) who claim they heard it on a tape that no one has ever proved even exists and who, frankly, are not very credible, and two people (Penn and Peete) who never claimed to hear it themselves at all.


You seem to have some sort of need to prove Trump uses that word in order to support that he's a racist. You don't. He IS a racist whether he uses it or not. So please stop putting more meaning into my words than are there.
 
Segnosaur said:
He has an overwhelming majority of support among republican voters, but republicans as a whole are making up a smaller amount of the electorate. So, he has a bigger piece of a shrinking pie.
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That doesn't seem consistent with the fact that he managed to get 74 million votes in the last Presidential election. If he truly was only popular with a shrinking demographic then we should have seen his support wane.

It seems that a lot of "independents" were willing to give Donald Trump a second chance in 2020 and/or had been so scared by Biden that they voted for someone they didn't like.

Segnosaur said:
In the old days, if a republican didn't like their presidential candidate, they'd still stick around the party. But Trumpism is actually driving people out of the party.
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Is it though ?

It may be the case that so-called moderate Republicans (it that's not an oxymoron) have temporarily left the fold (though it seems not in any great numbers) but President Trump seems to have encouraged people on the far right and people who would otherwise not have voted to vote for him and the GOP. :confused:
 
The Don said:
That doesn't seem consistent with the fact that he managed to get 74 million votes in the last Presidential election. If he truly was only popular with a shrinking demographic then we should have seen his support wane.

It seems that a lot of "independents" were willing to give Donald Trump a second chance in 2020 and/or had been so scared by Biden that they voted for someone they didn't like.
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It's probably also worth acknowledging that the GOP's constant brazen lies and plays to bias definitely helped Trump and the GOP with the very large chunk of the population that are only passingly informed about politics. Also, the various things like Trump's name being on those checks gave him quite a bit of undue credit. Facebook literally changing their algorithms to help the GOP certainly didn't hurt them either.
 
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Segnosaur said:
Again, it wouldn't necessarily affect his support with the hardcore MAGAchud...

But it may just have an effect on what little support he has remaining among moderate voters... the ones who might have done some mental gymnastics to justify how Trump isn't really a racist for whatever reason (such as "Mexico isn't a race"). The use of the N-word has a certain gravitas to it that makes it a little harder to dismiss.
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If he has any black MAGAchuds it may change their minds as well.
 
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