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Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

Tippit said:
Another feather in his cap. I doubt he was a climate change denier, he was probably an anthropogenic climate change denier. Super smart dude.
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You just argued that he was both smart and not smart in the same post. Which is it?

Also, who cares if he's smart or not? What does that have to do with you or your claim?

It’s definitely not fair to just call him lucky. He was extraordinarily prescient, a true believer in bitcoin.
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How would you tell the difference?
 
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https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

There is a list, and he is near the top of that list, maybe a page or so down. I don't know what his address is. The shapeshift.com app actually has a blockcypher.com link which shows a record of the transaction he made to me, apparently from a smaller bitcoin wallet which held 29 BTC at the time. Maybe someone with knowledge of bitcoin forensics would know how to use that wallet to find the main wallet?

It is for the same reason that I suspect many of the wallets on that list belong to the same persons.
 
Belz... said:
Ok you don't mean that he actually has 2B in assets or cash. He would have 2B if he could get rid of those BTC.
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Belz... said:
I didn't deny it. I implied that the difficulty in getting rid of BTC for actual cash may mean that it's not an asset.
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One of these things is not like the other .....

Belz... said:
IIt's your BTC-defensiveness filter that caused an issue here.
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That seems to be your usual dodge. As soon as your argument gets blown out of the water you try to label me a bitcoin lover.
 
Tippit said:
It’s definitely not fair to just call him lucky. ... What he did wasn’t quite like buying a winning lottery ticket ... I’m sure you would attribute all of your good investments to pure skill, but the reality is that sometimes it’s not altogether clear why some people are successful and others are not. ...
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Oh, agreed. That was hyperbole, and does not hold as watertight analogy.

And I agree, good investment judgments always include an element of luck, always. It would be foolish to deny that.

The point I intended to make with the lottery analogy is that luck did, in this case, play a far, far, far greater role in having brought about this happy outcome for your friend, than merely good judgment, of the kind one might make with more conventional investments like equity and bonds and regular currency and derivatives and as on. At least that is my view.


The tragedy for me, is that I could have invested much more than the ~$350,000 that made up his initial investment, or as little as the $10,000 that I somewhat seriously considered at the time. I had none of the conviction he did. ... My own perspective on my colossal missed opportunity, is that I was far too stubborn, closed-minded, and even ungrateful (having thrown away an email with 5 bitcoin). ... Bitcoin is my biggest financial regret for a number of reasons, hopefully I can learn some lessons from it. I have no plans to sell the .0919 that i own.
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Not that you've asked me, and obviously you will make of your experiences what you will, but I wouldn't draw from this the lessons you did, at least not exactly. Unless you have reason to believe yourself extraordinarily better informed than your garden variety investor, you'd have been ill advised to put your shirt on bitcoin then, just as you'd be ill advised to do that now, regardless how it all happened to turn out. At least that is my view.

Like I said, given the extraordinary 'success' of BTC, I'd say it might make sense to put a small amount, relative to your entire portfolio, something you can well afford to see reduced to zero, into BTC, but no more. In fact, the more I think about this, the more it seems to me that I ought to do just that myself!

If you've now turned into a BTC believer, nothing stops you from investing even now. I understand there's a case to be made for very large increases even from current levels -- although obviously there's probably a better case that argues just the opposite.


... He worked for Ripple labs, and has a sizeable fortune in Ripple stock alone, worth hundreds of millions, and he has met Roger Ver, and Vitalik Buterin of Ethereum fame...
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If you don't want to dox your friend, then don't. You don't have to defend his existence, at least not to me.
 
psionl0 said:
One of these things is not like the other .....
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No, they're the same. But I understand why you want them to be different.

That seems to be your usual dodge. As soon as your argument gets blown out of the water you try to label me a bitcoin lover.
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No argument was "blown out of the water". You seemed to disagree with my definition of asset but made no counter at all. I also didn't call you a bitcoin lover. I said you are very defensive about bitcoin, and you continue to prove me right, as not a single post can be made on the topic in any negative way without you responding.
 
psionl0 said:
You're not fooling anybody.
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There's no deception needed: I clearly said that it's difficult to get rid of large amounts of BTC and so I questioned whether BTC can be considered an asset like a house or other properties.

Ok you don't mean that he actually has 2B in assets or cash. He would have 2B if he could get rid of those BTC.
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Do you even read the posts you respond to? Also, do you know what the word "deny" means?

:dl:
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Psion, you didn't make a counter-argument. You questioned my use of the word "asset". That's not a counter-argument. It's a question.

Do you not understand this? Or maybe you're just taking the piss.
 
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Chanakya said:
Not that you've asked me, and obviously you will make of your experiences what you will, but I wouldn't draw from this the lessons you did, at least not exactly. Unless you have reason to believe yourself extraordinarily better informed than your garden variety investor, you'd have been ill advised to put your shirt on bitcoin then, just as you'd be ill advised to do that now, regardless how it all happened to turn out. At least that is my view.
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Obviously I made a huge mistake. I could have easily invested $10,000 without even blinking an eye. That represented a fraction of the daily variance of my investments back then, let alone now. I was stubborn, and way too cautious for my own good. I have yet to invest a single cent into any crypto, as the bitcoin I have was gifted. I don't have any plan to invest at these prices, and I don't really have any FOMO. I'm a precious metals, real estate, and stock investor. If the cryptos pull back considerably from here, I might think about taking a stand. But missing the massive opportunity that I did only to possibly buy at or near a top and then get destroyed on the way down would be too much to bear at this point. Despite this the best strategy is to take a rational approach at any given time, and at this time I cannot buy it.

Like I said, given the extraordinary 'success' of BTC, I'd say it might make sense to put a small amount, relative to your entire portfolio, something you can well afford to see reduced to zero, into BTC, but no more. In fact, the more I think about this, the more it seems to me that I ought to do just that myself!
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I already have that. If bitcoin reaches the fabled $1,000,000 level, my stake will be worth about $92,000. If I were to invest in crypto, it would probably be Monero, for the privacy aspects. I think the biggest selling point of crypto is evading capital controls, and what better way to do that than with the most privacy-friendly crypto?

If you've now turned into a BTC believer, nothing stops you from investing even now. I understand there's a case to be made for very large increases even from current levels -- although obviously there's probably a better case that argues just the opposite.
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I have never been a BTC believer, but I have always been a fiat currency doubter. This should have been enough.
 
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Tippit said:
https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

There is a list, and he is near the top of that list, maybe a page or so down. I don't know what his address is. The shapeshift.com app actually has a blockcypher.com link which shows a record of the transaction he made to me, apparently from a smaller bitcoin wallet which held 29 BTC at the time. Maybe someone with knowledge of bitcoin forensics would know how to use that wallet to find the main wallet?

It is for the same reason that I suspect many of the wallets on that list belong to the same persons.
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There are 50 Bitcoin billionaires listed on that site, but you think there are less?
 
According to CBS news Feb 23rd 2021:

"There are now as many as 100,000 people who have $1 million or more stashed in bitcoin, according to the cryptocurrency data-tracking firm bitinfocharts. That's up from just 25,000 bitcoin millionaires three months ago. A year ago, there were about 15,000 millionaire bitcoin accounts."

It's really not that difficult to go from "0.00" to 1 million. If you can make $1,000 a thousand times, you're there. It is exceedingly difficult to go from a million to a billion though. I think we will see more BTC billionaires at some point but you have to keep in mind that cryptocurrency in general is kinda new and not too many people have put the time in to understand it much less invest in it. That seems to be changing.
 
What can you actually spend it on?

If I was a bitcoin millionaire, how would I use it to buy a Ferrari or yacht?
 
Captain_Swoop said:
What can you actually spend it on?

If I was a bitcoin millionaire, how would I use it to buy a Ferrari or yacht?
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Cheapest would be direct exchange with current Ferrari or yacht owner.
Other option is seller accepting bitcoin .. but it's usually not very good rate, and they usually don't sell Ferrari or yachts.
So the usual is you sell your bitcoin for fiat on exchange. Issue with that is that they are basically banks. It's not possible to do anonymously, and if your country requires tax from krypto sales, it would be wise to pay it.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Do they have enough money to pay out for my millions?
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Bitcoin's market cap alone is just a bit over $1 trillion not including any other cryptocurrencies. In comparison, the entire DOW JONES market cap is just a bit over $8 trillion. You're covered on your BTC cash out.

I think you already knew this...


The BTC market cap alone could eventually surpass the DOW.
$450K per BTC would do it. It may seem laughable to some, but it is just as laughable to realize that in July 2010, bitcoin began trading at a value of US $0.0008
 
So all the bitcoin holders can all cash out today if they want?
Put actual dollars in to a bank account?
 
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