[ED] Discussion: Trans Women Are not Women (Part 6)

[Paul2]

I'm saying that the population males has a mean and distribution for attributes and that the population transwomen in all likelihood has a different mean and distribution for the same attributes.

So if you say something like the average male can bench fifty pounds more than the average female it does not follow that the average transwoman can bench fifty pounds more than the average female.

Whether transwomen ARE males or not is neither here nor there with respect to this point. It's a statistical observation

Avocados are fruits. Fruits have much lower fat content than cakes. But it would be wrong to assume Avocados therefore have lower fat content than cakes.

Are you thinking that because the average performance of trans women who have undergone hormone therapy would not be the same as that of males, and because trans women who have undergone hormone therapy is a section of trans women overall, that the average performance of trans women overall is lower than that of males?

The corollary would be that the average performance of trans women who have not undergone hormone therapy should be the same as the average performance of males, correct?

 

[Meadmaker]

Much of the debate about transwomen competing against cis women in sport seems to concentrate on track events. I think it is wrong and unfair in track sports. But I’m far more concerned about contact sports.

Cis women are being injured by transwomen in contact sports. This is why rugby has banned transwomen at the highest level:

https://theconversation.com/why-the...es-from-the-womens-game-are-reasonable-152178



Which is a good decision in my view. But at lower levels of the sport cis women are being hurt by transwomen. How can this be defended?

By coincidence, I happened to stumble across an academic paper by the same author. He says much the same thing, but with much more high-falutin mumbo-jumbo words:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00948705.2020.1863814

Safety, fairness, and inclusion: transgender athletes and the essence of Rugby


Basically, he says safety is more important that fairness, and fairness is more important than inclusivity. A nice quote from the conclusion:

The regulation and division of sport ought to reflect, and be written around bodies. Hence, it ought to recognise male advantage, and protect female sport from those with male advantage. But this regulation should be substantially uninterested in gender identity. What counts is not identity but male physiological advantage.

 

[TomB]

I'm saying that the population males has a mean and distribution for attributes and that the population transwomen in all likelihood has a different mean and distribution for the same attributes.

So if you say something like the average male can bench fifty pounds more than the average female it does not follow that the average transwoman can bench fifty pounds more than the average female.
Whether transwomen ARE males or not is neither here nor there with respect to this point. It's a statistical observation

Avocados are fruits. Fruits have much lower fat content than cakes. But it would be wrong to assume Avocados therefore have lower fat content than cakes.

This got me curious, so I did a search and found this. It gives two parts of the equation: How much males should be able to bench press by body weight, and the same for females. (https://www.healthline.com/health/exercise-fitness/average-bench-press#average-for-women)

At weight 148lb a female in "elite" condition would on average be able to press 165lb. A male at 148lb in elite condition would be able to press about 290 lb. (A male in intermediate shape would be able to lift around 170 on average). A quick look at the chart suggests that, in terms of bench press, a female in elite condition is about equivalent to a male in intermediate condition.

What is missing is not the averages for trans-women, but rather the reduction that occurs due to hormone therapy. There is a 125lb difference between male and female averages. Does a trans woman's performance decrease by that much with hormone therapy?

You are correct, I think, in suggesting that trans-women probably have a different distribution than cis-men. And I can see a legitimate argument that this means that they do not belong in the male category. But it doesn't follow that this means that they will have a distribution similar to women or that they fit into the female category.

The actual answer as to where an individual trans-woman fits would probably vary by sport and by the progression of her transition. So day one of transition, she would probably fit better in the male divisions, based on performance, but at some point would be better reclassified into the female divisions.

My opinion is that many of these characteristics can be tracked and measured. So let each sports league determine its policies and make judgements for individual athletes, rather than try to make one size fits all rules via legislation written by lawyers and politicians.

I don't like legislation on this subject in either direction because legislation is rarely effective in allowing for judgements in individualized cases. And when it does, legislators seem to want to remove that. (Think manditory minimums, which are designed to take away the power of judges to...well...judge.)

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

What leads you to that conclusion?

Observation and application of logic and maths.

I have never seen a transwoman that is what I would consider to be at the upper end of male strength and size. They may well exist but certainly in smaller numbers than in cismen.

Most transwomen are going to want to pass more effectively and therefore will be discouraged from building muscle mass and pursuing those extremes of strength.
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And then there is the effect of transitioning, hormones etc if they happen to be using them.

That's just three points off the top of my head.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Are you thinking that because the average performance of trans women who have undergone hormone therapy would not be the same as that of males, and because trans women who have undergone hormone therapy is a section of trans women overall, that the average performance of trans women overall is lower than that of males?

The corollary would be that the average performance of trans women who have not undergone hormone therapy should be the same as the average performance of males, correct?

No that's only one point of it.

I'm saying even untransitioned transwomen will have a different distribution.

Some of that may be biology I don't know if there are links there at all so I will avoid that.

Some of it will be down to transwomen having reasons to positively eschew the extremes of strength and performance that cismen pursue.

And my experience and observation is that transwomen don't look like The Rock. So there's going to be a different distribution.

I don't know the size of the difference but assuming there isn't one appears flat out wrong.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

This got me curious, so I did a search and found this. It gives two parts of the equation: How much males should be able to bench press by body weight, and the same for females. (https://www.healthline.com/health/exercise-fitness/average-bench-press#average-for-women)

At weight 148lb a female in "elite" condition would on average be able to press 165lb. A male at 148lb in elite condition would be able to press about 290 lb. (A male in intermediate shape would be able to lift around 170 on average). A quick look at the chart suggests that, in terms of bench press, a female in elite condition is about equivalent to a male in intermediate condition.

What is missing is not the averages for trans-women, but rather the reduction that occurs due to hormone therapy. There is a 125lb difference between male and female averages. Does a trans woman's performance decrease by that much with hormone therapy?

You are correct, I think, in suggesting that trans-women probably have a different distribution than cis-men. And I can see a legitimate argument that this means that they do not belong in the male category. But it doesn't follow that this means that they will have a distribution similar to women or that they fit into the female category.

The actual answer as to where an individual trans-woman fits would probably vary by sport and by the progression of her transition. So day one of transition, she would probably fit better in the male divisions, based on performance, but at some point would be better reclassified into the female divisions.

My opinion is that many of these characteristics can be tracked and measured. So let each sports league determine its policies and make judgements for individual athletes, rather than try to make one size fits all rules via legislation written by lawyers and politicians.

I don't like legislation on this subject in either direction because legislation is rarely effective in allowing for judgements in individualized cases. And when it does, legislators seem to want to remove that. (Think manditory minimums, which are designed to take away the power of judges to...well...judge.)

Yeah I agree with your points here even though we have come at it from different directions.

I've never said transwomen have the same curve as ciswomen only that it's not the same as cismen and if we want to do the analysis properly then we have to compare apples and apples.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

By coincidence, I happened to stumble across an academic paper by the same author. He says much the same thing, but with much more high-falutin mumbo-jumbo words:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00948705.2020.1863814

Safety, fairness, and inclusion: transgender athletes and the essence of Rugby


Basically, he says safety is more important that fairness, and fairness is more important than inclusivity. A nice quote from the conclusion:

I would rank safety over inclusivity also.

Fairness is more difficult. Fair seems pretty subjective and I don't think sports are fair at all period. If sports were truly fair I'd have had the same chance of playing in the NBA as Yao Ming and I don't think that's true.

Perhaps the illusion of fairness is what he meant? I.e it appears fair to those watching?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

We shouldn't ban anyone, and we shouldn't set the rules in order to validate anyone's identity.

Which is an odd conclusion for me to see you arrive at after we seem to have been arguing about whether we should ban transwomen from competing in women's sport in order to preserve the identity of ciswomen in sport.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It seems like you are begging the question here.

Is the significance of not qualifying for the state championship greater than the significance of....whatever it is that the transgirl experiences if she chooses no competition at all rather than competing against other males? Seems pretty subjective.

It's a legitimate question, worthy of discussion, whose answer is not immediately obvious. It's something reasonable people could differ on. To have a meaningful discussion of it, we would also have to make sure we are discussing the reality of the situation. Your framing suggests that the rules a lot of us would want force the choice of "never having competed at all", but that is of course not true.

In her freshman year, Terry Miller competed in the indoor winter season, and posted respectable but unremarkable, middle of the pack, times. In the outdoor spring season, she smashed all time records. It's true that a lot of people, including me, would not have allowed her to compete in circumstances where she would have been lauded as the greatest sprinter in the history of the state of Connecticut, but she still could have competed, just as she had in the winter.
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Missed this bit...

It seems to be pretty much a mathematical proof to say that not competing at all provides less reward than competing and finishing second. And therefore it is a less significant reduction to knock someone into second place than to stop them ever competing. I don't think that's subjective at all since not competing would appear to include ALL of the loss of not finishing 1st with all the loss of not finishing in any other place either.

I'm really not au fait with the specific example in detail but I'm trying to get up to speed with it and notice that Chelsea Mitchell seems in fact to be beating Miller at least on occasion. So I wonder what she's moaning about?

 

[Elaedith]

Missed this bit...

It seems to be pretty much a mathematical proof to say that not competing at all provides less reward than competing and finishing second. And therefore it is a less significant reduction to knock someone into second place than to stop them ever competing. I don't think that's subjective at all since not competing would appear to include ALL of the loss of not finishing 1st with all the loss of not finishing in any other place either.

Because nobody is saying they should be stopped from every competing at all, just that they should compete in the division for their biological sex because biological sex, not identity, is the reason for sports being segregated. Or transgender groups could start new sporting leagues segregated in another way, such as 'androgenized or non-androgenized' or whatever criteria they want.

When this is pointed out you just shift the goalposts and say that there are reasons they might not want to. You are saying the feelings of transwomen are more important than the feelings of everyone else.

I'm really not au fait with the specific example in detail but I'm trying to get up to speed with it and notice that Chelsea Mitchell seems in fact to be beating Miller at least on occasion. So I wonder what she's moaning about?

Because beating somebody on occasion who has an unfair advantage does not make it acceptable for them to have an unfair advantage. According to your logic, it's ok for some athletes to take performance-enhancing drugs as long as others who don't take them still beat them on occasion.

 

[lionking]

Observation and application of logic and maths.

I have never seen a transwoman that is what I would consider to be at the upper end of male strength and size. They may well exist but certainly in smaller numbers than in cismen.

Most transwomen are going to want to pass more effectively and therefore will be discouraged from building muscle mass and pursuing those extremes of strength.
.
And then there is the effect of transitioning, hormones etc if they happen to be using them.

That's just three points off the top of my head.

I don’t think you have looked very far.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...s/news-story/065ac248ba9b497f13caa0c75aacc0aa

If you had a female body I doubt think you would enjoy a physical confrontation with Hannah Mouncey.

 

[Paul2]

No that's only one point of it.

I'm saying even untransitioned transwomen will have a different distribution.

Some of that may be biology I don't know if there are links there at all so I will avoid that.

Some of it will be down to transwomen having reasons to positively eschew the extremes of strength and performance that cismen pursue.

And my experience and observation is that transwomen don't look like The Rock. So there's going to be a different distribution.

I don't know the size of the difference but assuming there isn't one appears flat out wrong.

Yeah, I get that. One question is how extensive that difference actually is for the entire population. The other question is how extensive that difference will be for athletes? My intuition is that the tendency you identify would be minimal for athletes, but don't bet your mortgage on my intuition.

 

[Meadmaker]

I'm really not au fait with the specific example in detail but I'm trying to get up to speed with it and notice that Chelsea Mitchell seems in fact to be beating Miller at least on occasion. So I wonder what she's moaning about?

Medical records are, quite correctly, not available to the public for examination. Rumor has it that at the time Terry Miller and Andraya Yearwood began competing against females, they were not taking any hormone treatments, but they subsequently began them. It might be that what we are seeing is that the treatments are having an effect.

Are their times getting slower? I don't imagine I'll be doing the research to find out, but perhaps someone else has. I also don't know what effect the pandemic had. I think they would be seniors this year, or perhaps they would have graduated last year. Obviously, the competition seasons have been radically altered, and training and conditioning have likewise been affected.

But the whole conversation is just silly. Terry Miller has a a distinct advantage due to the fact that she is male. Debating that is, as I noted before, a lot like debating the flat Earth hypothesis. Everyone knows that males are faster. There is zero doubt. The only question is whether we allow them to compete against females despite their natural advantages.

That question is a legitimate question. Any debate about whether the natural advantage exists is absurd.

 

[Meadmaker]

Because nobody is saying they should be stopped from every competing at all, just that they should compete in the division for their biological sex because biological sex, not identity, is the reason for sports being segregated. Or transgender groups could start new sporting leagues segregated in another way, such as 'androgenized or non-androgenized' or whatever criteria they want.

When this is pointed out you just shift the goalposts and say that there are reasons they might not want to. You are saying the feelings of transwomen are more important than the feelings of everyone else.

QFT

 

[Meadmaker]

Ah, the internet is an amazing thing. It's so easy to find information.

Here are some results from the State of Connecticut indoor track seasons, which occur in Winter, so the 2020 season was unaffected by the pandemic, and the 2021 season had resumed normal competition. The numbers shown are the winning times.

2019 - 55 m Terry Miller 6.91
300 m Terry Miller 38.90
2020 - 55 m Andray Yearwood 7.02
300 m Nyla White 40.42
2021 - 55 m Alanna Smith 7.39
- 200 m Mariella Schweitzer 41.64


I think Terry Miller's records, set as a sophomore, are going to stand for a very long time.

 

[TomB]

Yeah I agree with your points here even though we have come at it from different directions. I've never said transwomen have the same curve as ciswomen only that it's not the same as cismen and if we want to do the analysis properly then we have to compare apples and apples.

Do we really? While it may not appear that way, I think we kind of want a lot of the same things. I do not want to exclude trans-women from sports. I don't even necessarily want them excluded from women's sports. But I want them included in an appropriate manner.

Sometimes that may mean that their competitive division will not match with their gender, at least until a certain point in transition. But I question the importance of this, given that girls can (and some do) play "up" into the male leagues. Female wrestlers on male teams pop up occasionally, and female players on male baseball teams are not super rare. you'll even occasionally see it in football. For the most part the reactions have been supportive. (Except maybe wrestling, because the guys might get cooties or something from the close contact.)

The issue for trans-girls on male teams, I think, has less to do with competitive disadvantage (although that comes along with transition) and more to do with locker room harassment from teammates and the lack of support similar to that that cis-girls get when they "play up." Those are the problems that I think need to be addressed.

Should transition result in a female level of performance in a given sport, I see no reason a league should not allow a trans-woman to compete. But I'm not sure there is a good objective measure of this. I think it's more of a subjective thing, requiring judgement. Not only does this require that the government stay out of it, it also requires that both sides accept the judgements. Yes, there are some advantages that won't go away (bone mass) but a determination has to be made on an overall basis relevant to the particular sport. On the other side, there has to be acceptance that not every trans-athlete will be judged eligible at the same point. Kendall may judged eligible, but Kylie not and that shouldn't result in a media blitz, marches and protest. That is also trying to remove the ability to make judgments. I'm not saying there shouldn't be a way to appeal the decision, just that using social pressures to gain outcomes in individual cases is counterproductive to the whole.

 

[Meadmaker]

The actual answer as to where an individual trans-woman fits would probably vary by sport and by the progression of her transition. So day one of transition, she would probably fit better in the male divisions, based on performance, but at some point would be better reclassified into the female divisions.

And then there is the effect of transitioning, hormones etc if they happen to be using them.

(Emphasis added)

Just a reminder that according to many trans rights activists, there ought to be no need for a transwoman to engage in any sort of transition beyond self declaration in order to compete against females.


The discussion about how much feminization should be required in order to be allowed to compete against females is a different conversation.

 

[Meadmaker]

Ah, the internet is an amazing thing. It's so easy to find information.

Here are some results from the State of Connecticut indoor track seasons, which occur in Winter, so the 2020 season was unaffected by the pandemic, and the 2021 season had resumed normal competition. The numbers shown are the winning times.

2019 - 55 m Terry Miller 6.91
300 m Terry Miller 38.90
2020 - 55 m Andray Yearwood 7.02
300 m Nyla White 40.42
2021 - 55 m Alanna Smith 7.39
- 200 m Mariella Schweitzer 41.64


I think Terry Miller's records, set as a sophomore, are going to stand for a very long time.

The entry in the above list for 2021 should be for 300m, not 200 m.

 

[theprestige]

Maybe some sort of average performance rule could be used. If, as a man, you were judged to be in the 85th percentile for the men's division your sport, then as a transwoman you could qualify for the women's division by taking debilitating treatments until you were in the 85th percentile among women in that sport.

This would have the added benefit of bringing your physical body more closely into line with your self-identity. Having a male's strength and stamina when your mind cries out that you're really female must be incredibly dysphoric.

 

[Meadmaker]

I just read that the lawsuit filed by Selina Soule, Alanna Smith and Chelsea Mitchell was dismissed on the grounds that Miller and Yearwood had already graduated, and there were no other transgender athletes known to be competing, so the lawsuite was moot.

So I must have gotten the timeline wrong.

ETA: Or....something. Due to Covid, things are messed up. Apparently the season was in fact screwed up this year, but some meets continued, so I'm not sure what to make of the results. I did, however, find a site https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/Athlete.aspx?AID=14046370 that verified that Terry Miller's 2020 times were substantially lower than the 2019 times. She got slower in 2020. A lot slower.