There's one scenario which I think will never happen: I don't think there'll ever be a time when a) there is anything more than a tiny number of sex crimes being committed by males against ciswomen in women-only spaces, where b) legislators sit back and say "oh well, there's nothing we can really do about that: it's fundamentally important that we allow self-ID transwomen to access women-only spaces, irrespective of any negative outcomes that result".
In other words, I believe that if anything more than a tiny number of sex crimes are being committed by males (whether by genuine self-ID transwomen or by cismen masquerating as transwomen) in women-only spaces, governments and legislators will - quite rightly - have no choice but to act in order to protect ciswomen in these scenarios.
I'm... not so sanguine as you. I also think it's pretty egregious negligence.
Let's take it out of context. What is being proposed is a policy with a
[giant gaping loophole]. You, and current policymakers are saying "We don't believe that anyone will actually take advantage of
[giant gaping loophole]." I find that sentiment of belief to be
extraordinarily naïve. Furthermore, the position you're taking is to wait and see... and if enough people actually do take advantage of the
[giant gaping loophole], then AFTER they've done so, we'll talk about what can be done to [reduce the size of the giant gaping loophole].
My problem here is that the
[giant gaping loophole] is something that ALREADY happens, but is currently illegal. One class of people (Group Y) already contains a subset (Ysub) that go to bizarre lengths in order to do the things that
[giant gaping loophole] makes much easier. They go to those lengths in a situation where the those activities are
currently illegal and socially unacceptable.
That
[giant gaping loophole] provides a situation in which Ysub can engage in those previously illegal and unacceptable behaviors and have a plausible excuse that protects them from punishment.
To think that Ysub will NOT take advantage of
[giant gaping loophole] is so naïve as to be straight up negligence.
Furthermore, inherent in your suggested approach is that the level of Ysub taking advantage of
[giant gaping loophole] needs to reach some threshold that you deem to be "enough" for it to merit intervention. That implies that there is a rate of activity that you feel is 'acceptable collateral damage' let's call it.
Now, if we were talking about [giant gaping loophole] meaning that some small amount of a store's inventory gets stolen by shoplifters, I'd have a complaint, but I think we could reasonably all agree that there's a level where the impact of that inventory loss is minor.
But that's not the case here.
[Giant gaping loophole] is one that puts a different class of people (Group X) at physical risk of injury and death, as well as mental and emotional trauma. To blithely say "We don't think anyone will take advantage of
[giant gaping loophole]. and even if some did, it's okay if some of X are harmed by Ysub as long as it's not a lot" is tantamount to reckless endangerment.
Furthermore... Just in case you've forgotten... We already have demonstrated evidence of Ysub taking advantage of
[giant gaping loophole] in one of the most extreme situations - one in which we would expect that even greater care would be taken than in other situations. We already see Ysub taking advantage of
[giant gaping loophole] in prison, and we already see X being physically and emotionally harmed by Ysub in prison as a result of
[giant gaping loophole].
So to say "Oh, we don't think it will happen, and if it does, then if it's too much we'll revisit this policy" is willfully ignoring an actual present risk that materially affects X.
So I will reiterate my oft-ignored question:
How much rape should females be expected to endure in order to validate the feelings of transwomen?