2020 Congressional Election

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's because you're paying attention to it. It doesn't do any good. The results will be the same whether you watch or not. So I'm not.

True. I had to stop watching and begin checking now and then.

If the results favor the R's, Trump will take credit. If the results favor the D's, it'll be a rigged election and Mitch will prevent them being seated. Heads they win, tails the USA loses.

It was leaning red at first but mostly blue votes are the only ones left to count and there are lots of them.

Trump will see the parallels and start off again that the ballots were stuffed at night.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Only question now is whether Ossoff will win by more than 0.5% to prevent a recount.

I think we'll be past the auto recount but the candidates can still request one. Not sure why they would bother unless it's within 100 votes. Just my opinion.

Warnock has passed the the 0.5 mark. Ossoff has a bit further to go.

 

[PhantomWolf]

It's amazing how many more counties are red rather than blue, yet the totals are so close..

Why is this amazing. Counties aren't based on population, and the majority of them are rural and conservative. Same if you look at a map of the US countywide.

 

[Segnosaur]

NYT has called it, both Democrats WILL win.

So you can relax.

So there is hope for American democracy after all.

Right now, as of 11:31pm:

Warnock is beating Loeffler by over 30k votes. So it looks like she's definitely toast.

Perdue is beating Ossoff by around 3k votes... so a little tighter there. But, the counties that seem to still have the most total votes left to count (DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett) are all breaking strongly for the Democrats. Should be easy for Ossoff to catch up.

 

[dmaker]

So, who would be senate majority leader now?

 

[Faydra]

I’m butt wiggling like my dog... please let this be true.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

So there is hope for American democracy after all.

Right now, as of 11:31pm:

Warnock is beating Loeffler by over 30k votes. So it looks like she's definitely toast.

Perdue is beating Ossoff by around 3k votes... so a little tighter there. But, the counties that seem to still have the most total votes left to count (DeKalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett) are all breaking strongly for the Democrats. Should be easy for Ossoff to catch up.

From the NYT comment column:

Trip Gabriel 5m ago

Fewer than 500 votes now separate Perdue and Ossoff. Feels like a horse race rounding into the home stretch.

 

[Segnosaur]

So, who would be senate majority leader now?

Well, the Democratic Minority Leader is Schumer. Not sure if there is any reason why he wouldn't step into the position of Majority leader.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

More comments:

Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn Just now

Ossoff and Warnock both have a greater than 95 percent chance to win, according to our estimates. The remaining vote is overwhelmingly Democratic. ...

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The race still seems close but Democrats are overwhelming favorites to prevail, including Jon Ossoff, who still trails David Perdue by a narrow margin. The remaining vote is from heavily Democratic counties.

I choose to believe,


In the heavily Democratic DeKalb County only 92% of the vote is in. It's very large.

Coffee County has 96% in and it favors Perdue but it's small.

Henry County has 97% in and favors Ossoff and it is much larger than Coffee County.

The rest have 98% of their counts in.

 

[Regnad Kcin]

So, who would be senate majority leader now?

The most uncharismatic man on Earth.

 

[Faydra]

The most uncharismatic man on Earth.

Yeah, I am really not a Schumer fan but I’m much less of a MacConnell fan.

 

[marting]

Looks like a done deal. Dems take both senate seats. Looks reasonably probable that the margins will be greater than .5% which will avoid an automatic recount.

Edit: SG noted this earlier.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Looks like a done deal. Dems take both senate seats. Looks reasonably probable that the margins will be greater than .5% which will avoid an automatic recount.

Edit: SG noted this earlier.

And given it's midnight in GA, they may all go to bed and count the rest tomorrow.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

NYT:

We think about 93,000 votes remain. If that's right, Loeffler would need to win about 69 percent of those votes. We think she's on track to win between <5 and 42 percent. (Our best guess is 23 right now)
Last model run: 12:06 AM ET

 

[timhau]

The most uncharismatic man on Earth.

Why would Democrats give the job to Ted Cruz?

 

[Norman Alexander]

The most uncharismatic man on Earth.

Mitch currently has the job.

Oh, you mean a Democrat! Right! Well, gee. There's probably many to choose from who are nowhere near as sparkling a personality as Mitch. Take your pick.

 

[DevilsAdvocate]

It looks like DeKalb has not reported any absentee ballots. Maybe they wait until they are all processed before reporting. There will probably be a big jump for the Dems when those results come in.

 

[Checkmite]

Looks like Warnock has it.

Because of recent history, I'm just not willing to accept yet that "Ossoff has it" while Ossoff is still behind in the count, regardless of where the remaining votes are coming from. Once he's ahead, I'll consider him ahead.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

One last update because it seems they may have taken a break in counting until tomorrow morning (a few totals have been trickling in).

We think about 90,000 votes remain. If that's right, Ossoff would need to win about 51 percent of those votes. We think he's on track to win between 57 and >95 percent. (Our best guess is 77 right now)

We think about 90,000 votes remain. If that's right, Loeffler would need to win about 70 percent of those votes. We think she's on track to win between <5 and 43 percent. (Our best guess is 22 right now)