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Cont: 2020 Presidential Election part 3

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acbytesla said:
Exactly, People sign the envelope they came in, not the ballots. Because our votes are secret the ballots are separated from the envelope.
I never ran an election, but I worked as a poll worker during college processing absentee ballots. Total menial temp job. Some things I'm sure has changed.


Pretty much. They are not going to throw out any votes unless they illegible.
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Ok. That's what I thought.

It's sad that there are people who are buying into his charade, or his madness. It's hard to say which.

I would love to be a fly on the wall when he talks to people in the White House these days, to see if there are true believers who are egging him on, or whether they are cowering in fear afraid to tell him, or whether they are pulling a deliberate hoax in order to set up some possible future plan.

I haven't checked to see how many Downfall parodies have been posted to youtube since the election. I wonder what he'll do when he learns that General Steiner's counterattack was never launched Rudy Giuliani's lawsuits have all been dismissed.
 
TofuFighter said:
Pretty sure the networks are betting on trump being the gift that keeps on giving. Be it his own new media network, legal matters relating to him and his associates, standard rally bombast, teasing a 2024 run or maga cultists doing illegal things... there will be news.
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This was an interesting take: Trump plans “vote-count rallies” to “wreck” Fox News in bid to launch competing network: report
President Donald Trump plans to hold "vote-counting rallies" with a focus on attacking Fox News after telling allies he wants to start a digital media company that would "clobber" the conservative news outlet, according to a new report.

Trump intends to bring back his rallies after his election loss, and he is "going to spend a lot of time slamming Fox," a source told Axios. Trump has long been rumored to want his own cable news outlet to compete with the network, but Axios reports that he is now considering a "cheaper" digital streaming network, which would more directly compete with the Fox Nation streaming platform.

Though the president has reportedly considered "promptly" announcing a 2024 presidential bid, rumors have swirled for years that he wants to use his conservative popularity to launch a Trump-branded media network. Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner floated the launch of such a network ahead of the election, according to Business Insider, and discussions about launching a "Trump TV" network have continued this year, according to The New York Times.
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What are the chances Biden hits 80 mil votes?

Seems like a stretch, maybe. But maybe not.

According to the NYT page, he is at about 78 750 000. So there needs to be 1 1/4 million votes left for him. Are there?

Well here's the situation: One of the places where the votes are not yet counted is New York. They have very lax mail in laws, and so are currently only 84% complete in their voting. By my estimate, they have about 1.25 million left to count. If mail-in ballots run 2/3 for Biden, that means about 750K to be added. Suddenly, he is up to 79.5 million.

Could there be 500 000 Biden votes left in the other states? Ohio has 300 000 to be counted, and so maybe 100 - 150K there. Illinois has about 175K left, so maybe another 100K there. 80K votes in Washington, so 50K there. Maybe 300K in California, so 200K Biden votes there. All of a sudden, this is getting pretty close.

I predict he's going to make it to 80 million. Trump MIGHT get to 74, but that is not as clear. My guess is that he'll make it, though.
 
Meadmaker said:
Just curious, but at this point is it even possible to signature match?

I don't think that, right now, it is possible to tie a specific ballot to a specific voter. If you could, it wouldn't be a secret ballot.

But I've never run an election, so maybe they do things differently with absentee ballots.


Either way, Trump's whining about signature matching means he knows he can't win Georgia unless he gets votes thrown away somehow.
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I speculate that what they’ll aim for showing that there were more irregularities among those who voted in the Democratic primary than those who voted in the Republican primary.

Remember, in a post-factual world, one doesn’t use facts, logic, and accurate statistics to present a valid argument, one just has to construct a more compelling narrative. And Trump can do that any day of the week.
 
Ladewig said:
I speculate that what they’ll aim for showing that there were more irregularities among those who voted in the Democratic primary than those who voted in the Republican primary.

Remember, in a post-factual world, one doesn’t use facts, logic, and accurate statistics to present a valid argument, one just has to construct a more compelling narrative. And Trump can do that any day of the week.
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That and as someone noted recently, they aren't actually try to prove that Trump got more votes. Even if you add up all their claims and multiply them by 10 Biden still won.

They are going for some kind of "Fruit of a Poisoned Tree" thing. Even even Biden didn't win via shady votes, they'll prove he got some.
 
Meadmaker said:
Just curious, but at this point is it even possible to signature match?

I don't think that, right now, it is possible to tie a specific ballot to a specific voter. If you could, it wouldn't be a secret ballot.

But I've never run an election, so maybe they do things differently with absentee ballots.
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It's unconstitutional to maintain the sigs with the ballots. How you voted is secret. Once the ballots are removed from the envelope there is no way to match it back up.


Meadmaker said:
Either way, Trump's whining about signature matching means he knows he can't win Georgia unless he gets votes thrown away somehow.
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I think it shows how ignorant he is.
 
Meadmaker said:
It's just one more example of the type of bizarre behavior we will have to endure for another 65 days.
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...It would be lovely if it ended then.

Unfortunately, I'm strongly doubtful that right wing propagandists will stop spouting immense amounts of false and/or misleading and/or nonsensical BS.
 
Trebuchet said:
Here you go:

Note that the links I've tried to follow to the SCOTUS site on the case have been 404. I'm trying very hard not to see a conspiracy in that.
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He wrote that and in the same opinion noted the courts cannot change the state voting laws, a direct contradiction to asserting all the votes need to be counted on the day of the election.
 
And here we go: Kavanaugh corrects controversial opinion after Vermont fact-checks false claim about mail-in voting
"These two actions factored significantly in our decision to hold to existing law requiring the election day receipt of mailed ballots rather than extending returns beyond election day based on postmark," Condos wrote in a letter to the court. "Since the state of Wisconsin neither changed its ordinary election rules this year to mail each of its active registered voters a ballot nor authorized its local election officials to process ballots early, Vermont is not an accurate comparison for the assertion Justice Kavanaugh has made. I respectfully ask that the record is corrected to reflect that."...

... Kavanaugh's opinion alarmed election law experts, who warned that the conservatives on the Supreme Court appear "poised to allow Republican states to engage in all manner of voter suppression in the name of protecting the rights of state legislatures."
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"Sloppy" was mentioned twice in he article.

And then he sobered up. :rolleyes:
 
Aridas said:
...It would be lovely if it ended then.

Unfortunately, I'm strongly doubtful that right wing propagandists will stop spouting immense amounts of false and/or misleading and/or nonsensical BS.
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I listen to Sean Hannity sometimes. Trump wasn't the first to spew BS. He won't be the last.

But the spewers of BS on the radio or wherever don't bother me. It won't be coming from the White House anymore.


Sadly, who knows what the Republicans will come up with in 2024, possibly even Donald Trump himself. It would be nice if reality would overtake American politics, but I don't know how to make that happen.
 
Meadmaker said:
Ok. That's what I thought.

It's sad that there are people who are buying into his charade, or his madness. It's hard to say which.

I would love to be a fly on the wall when he talks to people in the White House these days, to see if there are true believers who are egging him on, or whether they are cowering in fear afraid to tell him, or whether they are pulling a deliberate hoax in order to set up some possible future plan.

I haven't checked to see how many Downfall parodies have been posted to youtube since the election. I wonder what he'll do when he learns that General Steiner's counterattack was never launched Rudy Giuliani's lawsuits have all been dismissed.
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The signature complaint is downright stupid. They verify the sigatures BEFORE they open the ballot. They are not even going to open and count the votes on the ballot until the affidavit (ballot envelope) is approved. Otherwise election officials could see your votes influencing them to either accept or reject your ballot.

The signature not matching what they have on file also doesn't immediately disqualify your ballots. They will flag it and set it aside. How it is dealt with then varies a lot which has brought up another absurd technical controversy.

Many states allow you "cure" your ballot. Say the signature doesn't match or you didn't sign it or didn't print your address on the envelope or you used a preprinted address label.

The GOP has fought over every one of these, Right now Trump is trying to throw out almost 700,000 votes in heavily Democratic areas because the State allowed counties to identify flagged ballots so they could be cured. Some did, some didn't.
 
Georgia estimated on Saturday that it would probably finish its recount by the end of Monday. That seemed unlikely to me, but hey. Before the recount Biden had a lead in the state by 14,172 votes. The common belief among election experts is that it is unlikely to affect the count by more than a couple of a hundred votes if that.

I guess my question is this. What if the recount shows what we know now and it hasn't materially changed the vote count. Do the GOP in Wisconsin and Arizona stop calling for recounts there?
 
acbytesla said:
Georgia estimated on Saturday that it would probably finish its recount by the end of Monday. That seemed unlikely to me, but hey. Before the recount Biden had a lead in the state by 14,172 votes. The common belief among election experts is that it is unlikely to affect the count by more than a couple of a hundred votes if that.
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According to the NYT, it's now 14 205.

I don't know if that is a recount effect or not.
 
acbytesla said:
Georgia estimated on Saturday that it would probably finish its recount by the end of Monday. That seemed unlikely to me, but hey. Before the recount Biden had a lead in the state by 14,172 votes. The common belief among election experts is that it is unlikely to affect the count by more than a couple of a hundred votes if that.

I guess my question is this. What if the recount shows what we know now and it hasn't materially changed the vote count. Do the GOP in Wisconsin and Arizona stop calling for recounts there?
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It's not a real recount unless you verify the signature on the ballots.
 
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