Cont: 2020 Presidential Election part 3

[acbytesla]

Stop worrying. It'll lead you to an early grave.

Coups have been started with less... in situations where the military was under direct control of the person in charge and supported that person's coup. Despite a lot of the Hollywood-driven narrative around military personnel, that's not going to happen in the US. The president is titularly Commander in Chief, but the oaths of the military are to the Office of the President (not the individual) and first and foremost to uphold the Constitution. And the vast, overwhelming majority of active duty military, especially high ranking officers, take that oath very, very seriously.

Republicans are unwilling to say he lost. Well, duh. Of course they are. A lot Democrats spent most of 2017 spinning that Trump wasn't "their" president, or that he wasn't a "legitimate" president, and pretty much trying to have him removed from office from before he even officially took office. That's the price of a FPTP system that has devolved into two-party loggerheads. That divide has been widening through my entire lifetime. It's in the interests of the party to exhaust every possible avenue of challenge before conceding defeat. In most elections, it hasn't been quite so close. I mean, the popular vote isn't close, and the EC count as it stands isn't close... but the votes within several states are really close. Several of the states that Biden took at the end were within 1% difference. I think it's unlikely, but I can see the game theory behind challenging them - it's hypothetically possible that one or more of them could flip on recount or on challenged ballots. Like I said, I don't think it's likely, but I would fully expect a Democrat in the same situation to challenge wherever possible.

70 million people voted for Trump. Yup. But it's not like all 70M of them actually *like* him. Many don't. Many are old-school Republican, and even if the current Republicans don't represent those old-schoolers, they do a better job of it than Democrats do. There are some fundamental divides in the US, that aren't being well addressed by our government. I don't expect that divide to lessen until someone in power actually starts doing their job for ALL of the people of the US, irrespective of the parties involved.

I don't disagree with any of that. But the Executive branch of the government controls most of the levers of government. And Trump and his cabal have their hands on those levers including SCOTUS, the Senate, the intelligence Agencies, the military etc. Most of the police in the US are authoritarians who supported Trump. I could go on.

Until I see real cracks in that alliance I remain concerned. Right now I need to hear that SCOTUS rejects the appeal. I'll breathe a lot easier hearing that.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

My take is that when he saw his large early leads of 300,000 plus, he had a massive surge of adrenaline and really thought it would stay that way.

His STOP THE COUNT! was a major panic attack of the Help! I'm drowning! Someone save me! Where are my minions and lackies?! Bring me a cavalcade so I can go out and meet the crowds of my supporters!!! Do it now!!!

He just can't believe people have voted for Sleepy Joe and Socialist Harris. It is just not possible.

Think of this as the grieving process stages:

Denial ... Anger ... Bargaining ... Depression ... Acceptance.

He's in denial: he couldn't have lost; the SCOTUS will make him king. He has anger mixing in. Bargaining might consist of 'if other people had done better'. Usually it's the grieving person who obsesses about 'if only I had'.

I suspect then he'll never move past depression into acceptance. Or maybe moving out of the WH will be a modified version of acceptance.

 

[acbytesla]

That's what I was trying to get at. It's a change in the overall dynamic for PA, which could very reasonably lead to a difference in voting patterns. For states where mail-in are the default(ish), I wouldn't expect to see a difference in voting pattern.

OK. So?

 

[uke2se]

I don't disagree with any of that. But the Executive branch of the government controls most of the levers of government. And Trump and his cabal have their hands on those levers including SCOTUS, the Senate, the intelligence Agencies, the military etc. Most of the police in the US are authoritarians who supported Trump. I could go on.

Until I see real cracks in that alliance I remain concerned. Right now I need to hear that SCOTUS rejects the appeal. Ill breathe a lot easier hearing that.

Don't worry. If SCOTUS intervenes and declares that votes cast for Biden aren't to be counted, Emily's Cat will tell us that it's nothing to worry about, because it's the law of the land after all.

 

[Stacyhs]

One point that is clear: any time an argument depends on a premise regarding Trump's beliefs, we're on shaky ground. We all agree that Trump lies, I reckon, but it also seems that he is capable of believing whatever is beneficial at the moment.

For all I know, he looked at the crowd at his inauguration and decided it was massive, undoubtedly the most massive ever seen. On the other hand, when he or an aide took a sharpie to the NOAA map, there's no reasonable description other than intentional deception.

Mary Trump said that, with the enabling of the GOP, he will have convinced himself he really has won the election and was cheated by election fraud.
The mail-in ballot voter fraud bit may have started out as a tactic he knew wasn't true but it has become Trump's reality.

 

[Emily's Cat]

AZ has had mail-in voting for 26 (I think) years. It flipped this time around.

Sorry, I'm not being very clear This is all on me.

I'm trying (and failing) to say that in states where mail-in voting has been uncommon, it is reasonable to think that there would be a notable difference in party favorite between mail-in votes and in-person votes (like we saw in PA). But that in states where mail-in has been common and is well established, we wouldn't expect to see as big a difference. I wasn't saying that the overall outcome would be the same in terms of Red/Blue as in the past.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

If you live in Minnesota, and haven't voted yet, please do NOW!

Eric Trump tweeted some 20 minutes ago:

Minnesota get out and vote!!!

View attachment 43542

Suppose he'll follow that with something to the effect that late voters are cheating Daddy?

 

[acbytesla]

Sorry, I'm not being very clear This is all on me.

I'm trying (and failing) to say that in states where mail-in voting has been uncommon, it is reasonable to think that there would be a notable difference in party favorite between mail-in votes and in-person votes (like we saw in PA). But that in states where mail-in has been common and is well established, we wouldn't expect to see as big a difference. I wasn't saying that the overall outcome would be the same in terms of Red/Blue as in the past.

So?

 

[Emily's Cat]

I don't disagree with any of that. But the Executive branch of the government controls most of the levers of government. And Trump and his cabal have their hands on those levers including SCOTUS, the Senate, the intelligence Agencies, the military etc. Most of the police in the US are authoritarians who supported Trump. I could go on.

Until I see real cracks in that alliance I remain concerned. Right now I need to hear that SCOTUS rejects the appeal. I'll breathe a lot easier hearing that.

I give SCOTUS more credit than you, it seems. Trump is not well liked in the intelligence agencies, nor particularly well liked by the military. State & Local police forces are insufficient to pull off a coup.

 

[Emily's Cat]

OK. So?

That's all. Nothing more. The skew toward blue for Mail votes would reasonably be observable in states where mail-in has previously been uncommon, less so in areas where it was already common. The assumption that mail skews blue wouldn't necessarily hold in states where mail was already common - mail would be more likely to be closer in distribution to the in-person votes in those states.

Just an observation and a comment on the nature of prior dynamics and the variance of outcomes by state. I just think it's neat.

 

[Foster Zygote]

Good piece on the election by John Oliver.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Don't worry. If SCOTUS intervenes and declares that votes cast for Biden aren't to be counted, Emily's Cat will tell us that it's nothing to worry about, because it's the law of the land after all.

You really suck at mind reading.

If that were to happen, EC would take up arms in open rebellion against a corrupt government.

But go ahead, keep on banging that drum. As long as you do your part to make sure that anyone challenging the fearmongering narrative is cast as a stooge or a villain, your purity will pass the test.

 

[slyjoe]

That's all. Nothing more. The skew toward blue for Mail votes would reasonably be observable in states where mail-in has previously been uncommon, less so in areas where it was already common. The assumption that mail skews blue wouldn't necessarily hold in states where mail was already common - mail would be more likely to be closer in distribution to the in-person votes in those states.

Just an observation and a comment on the nature of prior dynamics and the variance of outcomes by state. I just think it's neat.

Don't forget that Trump encouraged his supporters to NOT mail in ballots.

 

[turingtest]

This way. 4,640,688

It'll be 5,000,000+ before it's all over; and I agree with you that Biden will prevail, that the right thing to happen will also be the thing Biden and those 76+ million have a right to expect. But my point isn't the way he's winning, it's the problem with the way Trump and the GOP are losing- they're making such a laughable farce of the process that someone who actually had a stake in making American democracy a shambles couldn't improve on it.

And this is the problem with calling for the Democratic party to play the Republicans at their own game, there is no game any more. The Republicans will cheerfully burn down the entire system for the least bit of short term advantage. If the Democrats copy their playbook that's pretty much 'the end' for the institutions of Democracy in the USA.

(Sigh) Yeah, agreed. I understand the frustration involved when going high when they go low just results in them going even lower; but there's got to be a way to save the process that doesn't involve destroying it by mutually agreeing that it's no better than satisfaction of grudges.

 

[Andy_Ross]

authoritarian leaders of other countries have more respect for our election results than the GOP

ERDOGAN CONGRATULATES BIDEN ON U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WIN

 

[JoeMorgue]

You really suck at mind reading.

If that were to happen, EC would take up arms in open rebellion against a corrupt government.

But go ahead, keep on banging that drum. As long as you do your part to make sure that anyone challenging the fearmongering narrative is cast as a stooge or a villain, your purity will pass the test.

Do you have a source for the highlighted? Prefereably one with context? My recollection (which could very well be faulty) is that he said he wouldn't accept it without making sure it was legitimate.

Ah I see we're dealing with another "Inference is not a thing you can do" persona.

When the heavyset Italian guy and his two "associates" come into your quaint little lower East side flower shop and says "Nice place you got here, be a shame if something happened to it, yeah real shame" do you think he's really just complimenting your shop and worrying about any potential bad things happening to it?

 

[TragicMonkey]

Oh yes the "Let's stop the discussion and list all the things Trump has done because I'm going to pretend I've forgotten them and make you repeat them all just to waste your time" stage of the discussion.

Wait water is wet? When was this established? I demand the discussion stop and everyone prove to me yet again that water is wet so I can forget it again in 10 minutes.

Yes, I always love this portion of the discussion. Such a beautiful atmosphere, being gas-lit.

 

[acbytesla]

I give SCOTUS more credit than you, it seems. Trump is not well liked in the intelligence agencies, nor particularly well liked by the military. State & Local police forces are insufficient to pull off a coup.

You're right. You do. Justice Kavanaugh has openly intimated that he would help Trump. Clarence Thomas is a corrupt justice who should have been impeached a decade ago. The only one on the right side of the bench that has any semblance of principles is Roberts. That said, they have to know that encouraging a corrupt wannabe dictator would put an end to democracy.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

NVMD Ninja'd by everyone.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Don't forget that republican Senators blocked multiple bills earlier this year that were intended to improve election security?