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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Firestone said:
Dave Wasserman (The Cook Political Report) even goes further:
"If anything, I think people doing simple extrapolation are *underestimating* the additional margin Biden could get from the remaining uncounted Philly ballots, for this reason."

Detailed argumentation: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324961426742661121
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Correct. Bob Casy (D), senator from PA, expects Biden's lead to grow to 100K.

And that graph is a linear curve fit in excel. The returns are not linear.
 
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Tero said:
LOL, The Don, it's over. Clutching at straws.
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I sincerely hope so.

I hope that Joe Biden manages to secure (significantly more than) 270 EC votes.

I hope that President Trump's (il)legal challenges are ineffective and have no significant effect on the outcome.

I hope that faithless electors prove to be illusory (or at least irrelevant).

I hope that there is an ordered transfer of power and that the Trump Administration don't try to hang on in the White House or adopt a scorched earth policy.
 
Ambrosia said:
Here's my take.


The root cause.... is disinformation.
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How true.




Whatever you think of MSM they are typically regarded by the law as publishing information,
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Six or so corporations with interlocking directorates control the MSM. Thats one reason the MSM are political activists, no longer journalists, mostly.



and as such they face legal consequences if they make up stuff.
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The same owners own judges.
 
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Trump Tweets

I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!

Twitter flagged this with
Official sources may not have called the race when this was Tweeted
 
Armitage72 said:
They just can't understand that not endangering the public by not holding crowded rallies during a pandemic is a good thing, can they?
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Just more evidence that they're really stupid enough to believe their own propaganda. They're convinced that "COVID" was just an excuse Biden was using to cover up for his "low turnout" because that's exactly what they would do if they thought they weren't going to get a huge turnout for one of their events.

It simply never occurs to them that the ostensible reason for Biden limiting attendance at his events was also the real reason.
 
carlosy said:
Just a thought about the media coverage.

I guess all the other states are also still counting the rest of the ballots. But it isn't covered in the media because those ballots won't make any difference to the result in these states.

Wouldn't it help if the media would be showing the numbers in some of the other states too, just for comparison and to show that it is not uncommon for getting 10.000 votes here and 5000 votes there. It won't change anything in these states, but it is happening all over the country. Not just in the remaining battle states.
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You can look up the results of all the states on the NYT webpage. I'm not sure which "media" you are referring to.

It's not the counts per se that is the issue, though there are some results like Georgia that may technically be "to close to call". And Pennsylvania by percentages might be too close to call.

It's that with ~half the voting population (give or take) unable to come to terms with Trump's loss, and with Trump obsessively proclaiming himself the winner and the results are based on cheating, the media are all nervous to call the obvious.
An interesting commentary was just on NPR radio about Fox news. Anchors on the news side are essentially reporting that there is no evidence of any cheating or problematic vote counting. All the counting has been observed by GOP observers. But on the commentary side of Fox News, they are all feeding into multiple CTs on how the election was stolen.

Jared Kushner called Rupert Murdock to complain about the news coverage.

Some of the news media have a convenient excuse that the counting isn't done. Maybe the AP will stick their neck out and call Pennsylvania today. Maybe they think Trump needs to hear he has lost for a few more days.

Biden has won, most people know that including a lot of Republicans. There are a few of the usual GOP legislators going along with the CTs.
 
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Ambrosia said:
Here's my take.

It's not the US's ugly issues we are really talking about. It's the entire world.

The root cause of them all is disinformation.

If we look around the world there are numerous countries where fascist, authoritarian, populist ideologies are holding sway, the US is the largest and easiest to see but it's happening throughout Europe too and has been happening for years in many other countries.

People are suckers for a good story and will convince themselves that X is true despite all evidence to the contrary (see religion) and nowadays we have a way of spreading information rapidly. The internet in general and social media in particular can rapidly disseminate information to anyone who cares to receive it, regardless of how true it is.

Lots of people regard sites like Breitbart (other wingnut "news" sites of all political stripes are available) as credible news sources, when they are anything but. Most of the wingnut news paint the mainstream news as biased and slow and not credible, and people believe them.
"Never believe anything you read in the papers" was an old refrain the same is ever more true of things you read on the internet.
Whatever you think of MSM they are typically regarded by the law as publishing information, and as such they face legal consequences if they make up stuff. Blogs and forums and facebook and twitter notsomuch.

Some bad actors have seen how this works and are weaponising it to a) make a pile of money and b) spread their particular ideology as much as they can. States like Russia and likely others spread many false stories in an effort to destabilise people they regard as their enemies. Some people just like spreading rubbish just for the lolz. Some honestly believe what they are spreading around.

The other facet to this is big data. Google came up with a genius algorithm to place adverts. They wanted to find a way to make money. They provided a very high quality product (internet search) free to use to the world, and they settled on advertising. They placed curated adverts in the search results tailored to individual users. As a result f how good they were at doing that adverts placed with them got more clicks and sold more things and made them piles of money. They keep iterating on and improving their algorithms.
It turns out though that those same algorithms can be used to place "alternative facts" with low educated, low turnout voters. We've seen the rise of big firms like Cambridge Analytica who are *damn* good at what they do. Dominic Cummings pulled this trick over Brexit. Steve Bannon did it with Breitbart and many others.

"A lie has got halfway round the world before the truth even has it's boots on" someone once said.

We need to change things so that we argue both sides of an issue based off of the same set of facts. We need to marginalise conspiracy theories and wingnut news again. We need to get back to healthy debate over issues we face, and how to solve them.
We need to co-operate with and compromise with people who hold opposing views to move things forward.
We need to redistribute wealth, so that the top 1% of the top 1% don't hoard everything and everyone in the world can afford basic human necessities like clean water, food and healthcare.
We need to stop releasing CO2 into the air and find ways to mitigate the damage we've already done to the planet.
We need to build infrastructure to colonise other worlds before another asteroid hits.

We need to do a lot of things. Though it starts with being less partisan and talking with people of opposing viewpoints.

It's not just the US. It's the whole world, though like it or not the US tends to drive a lot of policy in other countries too, so having a POTUS who isn't an unwitting puppet of wingnut ideologues is a good start for now.
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This is exactly it and I nom'd this post.
 
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