• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

2020 Presidential Election part 2

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joe Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon:

We believe we are in a clear path to victory by this afternoon, we expect that the vice president will have leads in states that put him over 270 electoral votes today. The vice president will garner more votes than any presidential candidate in history, and we’re still counting. He has won over 50% of the popular vote. We are on track to win in Michigan by more than Donald Trump did in 2016. To win in Wisconsin by more than Trump did in 2016. To win in Pennsylvania by more than Trump did in 2016. And we flipped one of his states, Arizona.
 
JoeMorgue said:
I'm surprised how much visceral reaction there is to... literally everything happening exactly as they said it would.

We weren't going to get results on Election Night. We were going to get a "Red Mirage" on Election Night offset by the heavily Blue mail in votes. Trump would declare himself the winner on early results.

Wasn't all of that already a given?
Click to expand...

With the caveat that "if the polls are wrong again and it turns out to be a close election then:"

There will also be much whining by team Trump and attempted shenanigans, but at this points it looks like he will ultimately lose.

I'm still very surprised at how wrong the polls were and how close things actually are. I guess Trump is a better conman than I gave him credit for.
 
dmaker said:
Aren't you the guy that said you don't care if your side wins by any means necessary?
Click to expand...

Yes, and I fully expect the same mindset to exist in great numbers of people on the other side, which it does. Especially when it comes to Trump. There are people who will feel completely justified in taking any and all actions to oust Trump.

I actually think the best possible scenario is one where the left becomes completely convinced that Trump has been defeated, but he actually still pulls it out. The shadier the methods used, the better - but even if it's all completely undeniable, above board vote counting that culminates in a Trump victory, at this point a total meltdown from the left is assured.

Here's hoping.
 
So, exactly what states are the ones that have already gone red and were expected to be blue, that brought Biden down from projections around or above 300 to probably just barely above (or even just barely below) 270? (And made little change in the Senate instead of turning it blue, and actually shrank the blue majority in the HoR.)
 
Last edited:
Delvo said:
So, exactly what states are the ones that have already gone red and were expected to be blue, that brought Biden down from projections around or above 300 to probably just barely above (or even just barely below) 270?
Click to expand...

Florida (29 Electoral Votes) was the big one. Most projections had Biden favored (to varying degrees) to take it.

But as I said Florida is the swing state to end all swing states and seems to get a perverse pleasure of messing up political predictions.

Georgia and North Carolina were the same to lesser extents with the caveat that those two are technically still uncalled and (personal opinion) I feel like no matter what the numbers said no one really felt "in their gut" that Georgia was going to go blue.
 
Last edited:
JoeMorgue said:
I'm surprised how much visceral reaction there is (ETA clarification: not necessarily on this board, but in media/social media in general) to... literally everything happening exactly as they said it would.
Click to expand...
ya i no rite?

I suppose it's because so much is riding on this election. Emotions have been riding high ever since the coverage started. Both sides seem to think this is an election they have to win. Hence the record turnouts, and the tension in the streets.

It's easy to forget obvious things you think you know very well when you're in the heat of the moment. Turns out this goes for high-stakes elections, too :) .
 
Delvo said:
So, exactly what states are the ones that have already gone red and were expected to be blue, that brought Biden down from projections around or above 300 to probably just barely above (or even just barely below) 270? (And made little change in the Senate instead of turning it blue, and actually shrank the blue majority in the HoR.)
Click to expand...
I'm interested in knowing this, too. I'll see if I can't compile a list.
 
Delvo said:
So, exactly what states are the ones that have already gone red and were expected to be blue, that brought Biden down from projections around or above 300 to probably just barely above (or even just barely below) 270?
Click to expand...

Florida.

It was forecast to be Biden +3
It's turned out to be Trump +3

If PA goes red that'll be the state with the largest Biden poll lead according to 538 that went the other way, but it won't be called until at least late on Friday.
 
Mader Levap said:
It is also hilarious - from European perspective, both USA parties are rightwing. Though one is reasonable and other is far-rightwing loony with rising authoritarian tendencies, as evidenced by demands for stopping count when it is convenient for Rethuglicans.
Click to expand...

Of some small note - it's not just from a European perspective. Republicans have worked hard to move the Overton window to where right wing extremism is acceptable, but not everyone in the US is particularly swayed by that crap.

carlosy said:
Pennylvania tossup?
Trump is leading by more than 10% while 76% have been counted. Yes, I know the Mails will likely turn for him, but 10% at 76%?

I don't see that as a tossup.
Click to expand...

To poke at the numbers that The Guardian is using at the moment...

About 64% have been counted and Trump's lead is less than 10%. Also of note is that Philadelphia has a lot more votes to be counted.
 
I'm looking at 538's snake chart.

Other than Florida and Arizona, the states it showed at leaning Dem are the ones still in play - Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. The two Dem-leaning states that have been declared went 50/50, one for Biden one for Trump.

The red-leaning states all went for Trump though.

And the red mirage was predicted, early results favoring Trump and late-counted votes (including mail on-time that were late getting delivered to poll counters) favoring Biden.

Still too early to say if 538 was very far off, as the still in play states are all states that were predicted to be very close anyway.
 
trump is awake and tweeting. So far two of his tweets have been labelled misleading, but I'm sure more will follow.

Republican operatives are currently spreading a story, that an upload of 128,000 votes in Michigan had 0 trump votes in it, calling foul play and demanding something or other.
 
dudalb said:
I won't, and I am serous about the US becoming a de facto dictatorship.
I am also convicned that armed resistence will be necessary to restore any kind of democracy.
As my sign shows, I am not a pacifist.
Click to expand...

Sigh. The problem is that there are a whole lot more people who feel that way about a Biden presidency, and they really do have guns and know how to shoot them. Don't get me wrong, I think they're idiots just as I think the wannabe Wolverine liberals and moderates are.

The real problem is that the presidency has gotten too powerful over the last century and the ratchet only goes one way. Everybody's quick to see the problem with the power of the presidency when the other side has the Oval Office, but nobody wants to whack it back a bit when they have control. Candidate Obama may have railed against the Patriot Act, but he did not repeal it as President, in fact he renewed it.

And the Democrats were quite open about their desire to further expand the powers of the presidency. Packing the Supreme Court was on every liberal columnist's wish list in the last few weeks. What is that but a way to dilute the power of the SC in favor of the President?
 
Per FiveThirtyEight's snake:

This was a whole lot more work than I expected, but here is the blue half of the snake for starters:

Strong blue:
Washington DC|Blue
Vermont|Blue
Hawaai|Blue
Massachusetts|Blue
Maryland|Blue
California|Blue
New York|Blue
Rhode Island|Blue
Delaware|Blue
Connecticut|Blue
Washington|Blue

Slightly less strong blue (less than 60%)
Maine's 1st District|Blue
New Jersey|Blue
Oregon|Blue
Illinois|Blue
New Mexico|Blue
Virginia|Blue
Maine (Statewide)|Blue

Leaning blue (less than 55%)
Colorado|Blue
New Hampshire|Blue
Minnesota|Blue
Winsconsin| Pending
Michigian| Pending
Nevada| Pending
Pennsylvania| Pending
Arizona|Blue
Florida| Red
North Carolina| Pending
Georgia| Pending

Not too many surprises there, at least not yet. Most of the states projected to go blue were pretty strong.
 
KDLarsen said:
trump is awake and tweeting. So far two of his tweets have been labelled misleading, but I'm sure more will follow.

Republican operatives are currently spreading a story, that an upload of 128,000 votes in Michigan had 0 trump votes in it, calling foul play and demanding something or other.
Click to expand...

As far as I am aware, they are not citing some report by a state commission, but some website's vote tally display?
 
Twitter and other tech companies mark Trump's tweets with "warning: this may be misleading, click here" and such for the same reason that poll workers / election people around the country would feel completely justified in doing whatever it takes to get him out of office.

These people fundamentally see him as a completely illegitimate, evil figure and they feel this sense of historical responsibility to get him out, by any and all means.

They've been raised their entire lives to believe that there is no virtue higher than "being nice" and that "being nice" is achieved by not having any discriminatory or exclusionary thoughts about anything. So when someone comes along and is brash and mean spirited and talks about limiting who can come into the country, etc. - their childish little worldview is thrown into a complete tailspin.

It breaks their brains. They were sure that from now on, everyone would just be nicer and nicer. Any interruption to an unbroken pathway to eventually having the first wheelchair bound, transsexual black lesbian furry president is - for them - an unforgivable affront.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
Twitter and other tech companies mark Trump's tweets with "warning: this may be misleading, click here" and such for the same reason that poll workers / election people around the country would feel completely justified in doing whatever it takes to get him out of office.

These people fundamentally see him as a completely illegitimate, evil figure and they feel this sense of historical responsibility to get him out, by any and all means.

They've been raised their entire lives to believe that there is no virtue higher than "being nice" and that "being nice" is achieved by not having any discriminatory or exclusionary thoughts about anything. So when someone comes along and is brash and mean spirited and talks about limiting who can come into the country, etc. - their childish little worldview is thrown into a complete tailspin.

It breaks their brains. They were sure that from now on, everyone would just be nicer and nicer. Any interruption to an unbroken pathway to eventually having the first wheelchair bound, transsexual black lesbian furry president is - for them - an unforgivable affront.
Click to expand...

Sir this is a Wendys.
 
This tweet from Trump has been flagged by twitter as being misleading.

Trump Tweets

Last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key States, in almost all instances Democrat run & controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear as surprise ballot dumps were counted. VERY STRANGE, and the “pollsters” got it completely & historically wrong!
 
One thing I wish 538 would stop doing is telling us how the campaigns feel they are doing. I can't imagine a more useless piece of information to put into a "Moneyball" style number crunching discussion.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom