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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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shemp said:
Let's establish this: Biden does NOT need to win Pennsylvania. Nor North Carolina or Georgia. If he holds Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine, Biden will have 270 or 271 electoral votes (Maine's 2nd District has a vote of its own, so Maine can go 4-0 or 3-1).

Here's the numbers:

Present count: 224
Nevada: 6
Arizona: 11
Wisconsin: 10
Michigan: 16
Maine: 4 (or 3)

Total: 271 or 270. 270 needed to win.
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Does anyone here really think that Biden is going to be the next POTUS with 271 or 270?

No freakin way. They (GOP) will dig so deep and find/fabricate stuff that they are going to switch it back or just let the judges declare convenient stuff.
 
Looks like there are some very suspicious "vote infusions" which have happened throughout the night with completely implausible percentages for Biden vs. Trump (sometimes over 100,000 votes coming in at once, ALL of them being for Biden or Trump getting fewer in the batch than the frigging third party candidate got.)

I understand that the mail in votes probably do favor Biden, maybe even by a significant amount, but that's not what has been seen in some of these instances. We're talking huge amounts and a total clean sweep.

It looks to me like a deliberate democrat effort to steal this election and counter Trump's success in specifically important swing states he was doing well in. This is not surprising given that this is happening in heavily democratic cities where the poll workers, election commission people, etc. are going to be overwhelmingly leftist and they've been stewing in this mindset about Trump specifically for years now that he is basically Hitler reborn and anything is justified to get him out.

And even before Trump, the democratic party has been known for some serious voter shenanigans for decades. They have been caught on camera doing a lot of it, some very recently. "Electioneering" / "Ballot harvesting," etc.

There are also many instances of people receiving like 5 mail in ballots representing the last several owners of their house, etc.

In my view, it is absolutely criminal and insane that this country hasn't been requiring voter ID and tracking everything in a systematic, fairly unified way for decades. I think the push back against these measures has been quite consciously so that there would remain room for shenanigans.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
Looks like there are some very suspicious "vote infusions" which have happened throughout the night with completely implausible percentages for Biden vs. Trump (sometimes over 100,000 votes coming in at once, ALL of them being for Biden or Trump getting fewer in the batch than the frigging third party candidate got.)

I understand that the mail in votes probably do favor Biden, maybe even by a significant amount, but that's not what has been seen in some of these instances. We're talking huge amounts and a total clean sweep.

It looks to me like a deliberate democrat effort to steal this election and counter Trump's success in specifically important swing states he was doing well in. This is not surprising given that this is happening in heavily democratic cities where the poll workers, election commission people, etc. are going to be overwhelmingly leftist and they've been stewing in this mindset about Trump specifically for years now that he is basically Hitler reborn and anything is justified to get him out.

And even before Trump, the democratic party has been known for some serious voter shenanigans for decades. They have been caught on camera doing a lot of it, some very recently. "Electioneering" / "Ballot harvesting," etc.

There are also many instances of people receiving like 5 mail in ballots representing the last several owners of their house, etc.

In my view, it is absolutely criminal and insane that this country hasn't been requiring voter ID and tracking everything in a systematic, fairly unified way for decades. I think the push back against these measures has been quite consciously so that there would remain room for shenanigans.
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Onion headline: person who is not an expert finds suspicious what is predictably non-suspicious outcome predicted by experts.
 
Distracted1 said:
Wishing to participate in a Democracy does not imply a willingness to cooperate with (or even a reluctance to deliberately undermine) polls.
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it does, since it implies that people think they have to hide their vote for maximum impact.
In a working Democracy that would not be the case.
 
Never mind on the FiveThirtyEight map I talked about. I opened it again and it seems to not not be updated live after all. Sorry. I'm a mess today and obviously not paying attention.
 
BobTheCoward said:
Onion headline: person who is not an expert finds suspicious what is predictably non-suspicious outcome predicted by experts.
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It would be one thing if the mail in ballots started being counted and they favored Biden like 70/30 but we are literally talking about huge infusions where he took 100% or near that, of exactly the amount needed to negate Trump's lead.

In one case, in Milwaukee, this resulted in the overall turnout being 84% which is absurd.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
it does, since it implies that people think they have to hide their vote for maximum impact.
In a working Democracy that would not be the case.
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Evidence this is true?

ETA: any evidence that polling error is less in a "working" democracy?
 
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Skeptic Tank said:
I understand that the mail in votes probably do favor Biden, maybe even by a significant amount, but that's not what has been seen in some of these instances.
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I see that we can also mark you down for being unable to read graphs of election counts, to go along with being ignorant of American history and an avowed racist that is happy to see police murder people as long as they are on the "other side"

What a splendid chap you are.

Yes the mail in votes do favour Biden very significantly, and that is exactly what the election count data in places like Milwaukee is showing, which anyone with a basic understanding of simple arithmetic would be capable of comprehending.

Have a nice day.
 
Skeptic Tank said:
It would be one thing if the mail in ballots started being counted and they favored Biden like 70/30 but we are literally talking about huge infusions where he took 100% or near that, of exactly the amount needed to negate Trump's lead.

In one case, in Milwaukee, this resulted in the overall turnout being 84% which is absurd.
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Please show your work on your probability calculations that show the probability of happening. And also provide the record that the numbers you used are actually what was reported.
 
Ambrosia said:
I see that we can also mark you down for being unable to read graphs of election counts, to go along with being ignorant of American history and an avowed racist that is happy to see police murder people as long as they are on the "other side"

What a splendid chap you are.

Yes the mail in votes do favour Biden very significantly, and that is exactly what the election count data in places like Milwaukee is showing, which anyone with a basic understanding of simple arithmetic would be capable of comprehending.

Have a nice day.
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We're talking about 100% clean sweeps of over 100,000 votes infused in in one batch, with Trump getting zero of them. Not plausible.
 
One party encourages mail-in voting.

One party disparages mail-in voting and discourages it people from using it.


ENORMOUS SHOCK when mail in voting shows strongly disparate results.:rolleyes:
 
I'm surprised how much visceral reaction there is (ETA clarification: not necessarily on this board, but in media/social media in general) to... literally everything happening exactly as they said it would.

We weren't going to get results on Election Night. We were going to get a "Red Mirage" on Election Night offset by the heavily Blue mail in votes. Trump would declare himself the winner on early results.

Wasn't all of that already a given?

And before anyone mentions it "Florida done went and Florida'd" is not news in any election.

I think some people on the Left really talked themselves into this idea of an immediate blue wave that was both never going to happen and not be immediate.

It's gonna be close. Either Biden or Trump are going to win in the margins. We might not get the final results for a few days. That was all known. What "new" are we reacting to?
 
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Yes, the democratic party has attempted to steal the election in such an obvious way that the conspiracy can be uncovered by a layman looking at the reports of the reports of the vote count.
 
Protip for ya: I have policy for certain types of folks. Religious loons, extremists, commies, neonazis, conspiracy nutjobs - this kind of very fine folks - anything they post or write should be assumed complete, utter lie until proven otherwise. And I don't hold breath on that.

Oh, I forgot. Republicans too.
 
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