2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Stacyhs said:
We we warned that election night would look better for Trump than for Biden due to the way the votes are counted; that in person votes tend to be Republicans and are counted first in general while the mail-in ballots will continue to be counted after midnight today.
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Even with that, it does not look good for Biden in Ohio
 
cullennz said:
Massive place though with loads of people and loads of history, so guess it is always going to be complicated.
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It is complicated, but I've long seen the US as a shooting-star. Discovered as an essentially pristine continent by the north-western edge of a seriously picked-over Eurasia, it was eaten across in about three centuries. It has no intrinsic value left.
 
alfaniner said:
I keep flicking to the reports and seeing "BIDEN WINS" or "TRUMP WINS" on the map. Turns out they are just doing projections while John King fiddles with the states, saying "If this state turns red or blue, here's what happens." Hating that.
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I saw that.

One of those times when just say what is actually current and not what is possible in your head.

"But if this red one turns blue on the map and this one and this one then ....... Wahl ah! You get this map!"
 
It looks like in some states it might take days to really know who won. Some states they voted against counting votes that were cast before the election until election day. Biden will probably get the west coast and that is 74 electoral votes.
 
Davidlpf said:
It looks like in some states it might take days to really know who won. Some states they voted against counting votes that were cast before the election until election day. Biden will probably get the west coast and that is 74 electoral votes.
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Never realised how massive the population of California was.

Always seems on the TV to just be a cruisy place with a smaller population.

55 electoral votes.

Biden must be licking his lips.
 
cullennz said:
I saw that.

One of those times when just say what is actually current and not what is possible in your head.

"But if this red one turns blue on the map and this one and this one then ....... Wahl ah! You get this map!"
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There's one site that has a map where you can guess who will win each state, and see how the total electoral votes work out to see which wins. I think I did it wrong because the results said I would be in Hufflepuff.
 
cullennz said:
Never realised how massive the population of California was.

Always seems on the TV to just be a cruisy place with a smaller population.

55 electoral votes.

Biden must be licking his lips.
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California is not a swing state, it's reliably Dem. It likely comes down to how Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin...and maybe Nevada, vote.
 
The problem with mail-in ballots is that they're more likely to be voided, so you could have more people who intended to vote for Biden.

Anyway, the annoying betting market update:
7:55 am Biden at 61c, Trump at 44c.
3:45 pm Biden at 70 c, Trump at 39c.
4:59 pm Biden at 68c, Trump at 43c.
7:13 pm Biden 32c, Trump 78c.
7:17 pm Biden at 18c, Trump at 78c.
7:35 pm Biden at 34, Trump at 77c.
7:41 pm Biden 33c, Trump 69c.
7:51 pm Biden 36c, Trump 67c.
7:57 pm Biden 42c, Trump 66c.
7:58 pm Biden 34c, Trump 65c.

The market's obviously very volatile. Lots of panic. The numbers for Trump winning WI, MI, and PA have all come down to about 60c. Biden's way ahead in AZ and in the low 70s for NV (which was given to Trump briefly).
 
Cain said:
The problem with mail-in ballots is that they're more likely to be voided, so you could have more people who intended to vote for Biden.

Anyway, the annoying betting market update:
7:55 am Biden at 61c, Trump at 44c.
3:45 pm Biden at 70 c, Trump at 39c.
4:59 pm Biden at 68c, Trump at 43c.
7:13 pm Biden 32c, Trump 78c.
7:17 pm Biden at 18c, Trump at 78c.
7:35 pm Biden at 34, Trump at 77c.
7:41 pm Biden 33c, Trump 69c.
7:51 pm Biden 36c, Trump 67c.
7:57 pm Biden 42c, Trump 66c.
7:58 pm Biden 34c, Trump 65c.

The market's obviously very volatile. Lots of panic. The numbers for Trump winning WI, MI, and PA have all come down to about 60c. Biden's way ahead in AZ and in the low 70s for NV (which was given to Trump briefly).
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How do those numbers work.

If it is like 65c and you bet 10 bucks what do you win?

Here the odds work like 3/1

Bet 1$ get $3.00

Bet $5 get $15

Etc etc
 
TragicMonkey said:
There's one site that has a map where you can guess who will win each state, and see how the total electoral votes work out to see which wins. I think I did it wrong because the results said I would be in Hufflepuff.
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It appears you did it wrong. The way things are going, we will all be in Slytherin.
 
cullennz said:
How do those numbers work.

If it is like 65c and you bet 10 bucks what do you win?

Here the odds work like 3/1

Bet 1$ get $3.00

Bet $5 get $15

Etc etc
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If you buy one share for 65c, and your prediction comes true, you get $1.

So if a share is selling for 95c, then bettors then it's a very likely outcome.
 
Wisconsin

Trump won by 200 votes in 2016. He's currently leading by 12,000 votes with 41 percent of precincts reporting.

Statewide

Wisconsin -- Trump leads 51.2% to 47.3% with 59% reporting
 
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