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2020 Presidential Election part 2

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Pixel42 said:
Do you really think businesses are boarding up because they think Trump is going to win and Biden supporters are going to riot? Surely the reverse is much more likely.
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Here's a clue...


In NY, businesses boarding up their storefronts are decorating the plywood with the statement: "We support Black Lives Matter"
 
acbytesla said:
So what? That's geography. What you are describing is true in Washington State too. And Biden is probably going to win the state by 25 points.
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Washington State is very different. There are 3 big urban counties (7% of counties) that account for 52% of the vote and they are all solidly Blue. The surrounding rural Red counties are nowhere near big enough to overcome that much Blue.

This is not the situation in Texas, If we were to look at 7% of all Texas counties, that would be about 18 counties which makes up 69% of the vote. Of the 18 largest counties, only 8 of those counties are solidly Blue, which equates to only 43% of the vote. You'd have to have some of those larger Red counties make some historic swings toward Blue. I just don't see it happening.

And remember we are talking about Texas flipping Blue. Can you see any situation where Washington flips Red?
 
Joe Biden’s lead vanishes in four swing states, according to poll aggregator
In Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio Joe Biden’s lead may have disappeared

Joe Biden’s lead has evaporated in four key swing states, according to a polling average released by RealClearPolitics.

In Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio Donald Trump has seized the lead, the site claimed - although several polling experts said that the results were not credible.

RealClearPolitics still gave Mr Biden a 7.2 per cent lead nationally, with a 0.09 per cent lead in Arizona and Florida, and a 1.2 per cent lead in Pennsylvania.

The biggest collapse of support for the 77-year-old was in Iowa, where as recently as Friday he was ahead according to RealClearPolitics’ average by 1.2 per cent.

Mr Trump now leads Iowa by 2 per cent of the vote; Georgia by 1 per cent; North Carolina by 0.2 per cent; and Ohio by 1.4 per cent.

Mr Biden previously led polling in all four states, but saw his advantage dwindle in recent days.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...realclearpolitics-2020-election-b1565007.html
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Joe Biden’s lead vanishes in four swing states, according to poll aggregator
In Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio Joe Biden’s lead may have disappeared

Joe Biden’s lead has evaporated in four key swing states, according to a polling average released by RealClearPolitics.

In Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio Donald Trump has seized the lead, the site claimed - although several polling experts said that the results were not credible.

RealClearPolitics still gave Mr Biden a 7.2 per cent lead nationally, with a 0.09 per cent lead in Arizona and Florida, and a 1.2 per cent lead in Pennsylvania.

The biggest collapse of support for the 77-year-old was in Iowa, where as recently as Friday he was ahead according to RealClearPolitics’ average by 1.2 per cent.

Mr Trump now leads Iowa by 2 per cent of the vote; Georgia by 1 per cent; North Carolina by 0.2 per cent; and Ohio by 1.4 per cent.

Mr Biden previously led polling in all four states, but saw his advantage dwindle in recent days.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...realclearpolitics-2020-election-b1565007.html
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The problem with RCP this cycle is that they have been A) putting in a ton of right leaning marginal polls and B) dropping off high quality polls after a short amount of time.

Nate Silver and Nate Cohn have commented on this today.
 
gregthehammer said:
my thought is, all these people that bought the trump swag, what will they do with it if he loses? I was talking to my dad over the weekend, and we talked about how back in the day, the most a person would get would be an I LIKE IKE button to stick on your coat. now? people buy trump hats, trump flags, trump hoodies, what have you, like it's some sort of sports team. I have never had the thought " Man, I like this politician so much, i'm gonna wear his face across my chest!" just weird to me
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To be fair, politics is a lot more impactful than sports. I would never wear or parade around in that kind of stuff, not my style. But this is like the Super Bowl. And wearing/parading the colors of the "team" you support might actually have some influence on the outcome of the "game." So I get it, but it's not something I have ever seen before.
 
Trump was asked by BBC reporter if Trump had a concession speech. After he talked like he knows he might lose ("No one likes to lose"), he went into the: my crowds are are the biggest ever in the world, no one has ever seen crowds like I have, they fill up airports, there were 50,000 people in my crowds....
 
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xjx388 said:
To be fair, politics is a lot more impactful than sports. I would never wear or parade around in that kind of stuff, not my style. But this is like the Super Bowl. And wearing/parading the colors of the "team" you support might actually have some influence on the outcome of the "game." So I get it, but it's not something I have ever seen before.
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I dunno. it just seams cult -like to me. My two cents, but it seems to me that back in the day, people were more ready to grouse about a politician even if they voted for them. Now, if you voted for PoliticianX, you are stuck sticking up for PoliticianX come hell or high water. For a nation with such a independent, pull yourself up by your bootstraps mythos, seems pretty lame.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
So you think Trump supporters won't come out with their 'long' guns and camo clothes when Trump loses?

Think they never break windows or loot? :boggled:
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One question I have for the "Conservatives aren't the ones rioting/protesting" crowd: What exactly have they had to riot about this year? There's only one thing I can think of, and that's being told to wear a mask.

And on that issue, they've stormed government buildings on more than one occasion. Not to mention an untold number of individuals trashing local stores when told to wear a mask. So, not so great a record.

Otherwise, they're sitting pretty. Their guy is in the Whitehouse, and they're convinced he's going to stay there. The cops are putting "those people" in their places, which is fine by them. The Proud Boys and their ilk are getting free passes to act like jerks to anyone they want.

So why would they have rioted this year?

But if Trump loses, they're going to lose their minds, and then we'll see how "law and order" they really are.



Dread Pirate Roberts said:
Same thing here in Vegas. Dudes in trucks with custom setups to fly 2 trump flags on the sides and a big ole American one in the middle. It's one reason people keep saying Trump is going to win here.
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Of course, the big flashy trucks dragging huge signs and honking their horns attract all the attention, and no one notices all the other vehicles that aren't doing all that nonsense. If you counted how many were in each group, I'm guessing the Trump Trucks would be a very small percentage.

As usual, being a loudmouthed jerk gets you a disproportionate amount of attention, but it says nothing about how popular you actually are.
 
xjx388 said:
Washington State is very different. There are 3 big urban counties (7% of counties) that account for 52% of the vote and they are all solidly Blue. The surrounding rural Red counties are nowhere near big enough to overcome that much Blue.

This is not the situation in Texas, If we were to look at 7% of all Texas counties, that would be about 18 counties which makes up 69% of the vote. Of the 18 largest counties, only 8 of those counties are solidly Blue, which equates to only 43% of the vote. You'd have to have some of those larger Red counties make some historic swings toward Blue. I just don't see it happening.

And remember we are talking about Texas flipping Blue. Can you see any situation where Washington flips Red?
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You're counting previous elections not the current one. Demographics have been steadily changing in Texas. Also, you're not addressing other issues like the pandemic and the number of voters. State wide races have been getting closer and closer.

History tells us that Trump will likely win. Other factors show it could flip.

I lost my crystal ball so I don't know.
 
Texas going blue is pretty inevitable. Not sure if it's this year, assuming we oust Trump and remain an actual real Democracy, it won't stay Red for more than another decade at most.

Urbanization almost without fails leads to more liberal politics, and America is becoming more urban at a steady pace.

This election could very well be the one where Texas going blue is no longer some crazy insane scenario and even if the Republicans still hold it could be the start of it being a "swing state" that they have to fight for.
 
Horatius said:
Of course, the big flashy trucks dragging huge signs and honking their horns attract all the attention, and no one notices all the other vehicles that aren't doing all that nonsense. If you counted how many were in each group, I'm guessing the Trump Trucks would be a very small percentage.

As usual, being a loudmouthed jerk gets you a disproportionate amount of attention, but it says nothing about how popular you actually are.
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The last half hour I was in Ferndale, WA Macdonald's. There were 5 big pickups with rednecks in Cammo gear honking horns with huge Trump flags. But there were also 4 other vehicles in the parking lot with Biden bumber stickers. You would hardly notice them if you didn't look.
 
Minoosh said:
Has Biden's refusal to go low to match Trump's vitriol helped him or hurt him? The guy, as far as I can see, has been relentlessly positive with his message - no real attempt to scaremonger in Trumpian fashion. Other entities, like the Lincoln Project, have gone down a darker route. Biden as far as I can tell isn't saying "Lock him up!" or "He's going to ruin (or has ruined) the country." I respect him for that, but does it help?
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There will be a lot of Wednesday morning quarterbacking (to mix a metaphor) asking the same question. If Biden wins, he will be a genius. If he loses, an idiot. And the people making the judgement will claim to have known all along.


For the most part, I think Biden took the right route. He was somewhat aggressive, but mostly positive. I would like to have seen a bit more of a pushback, though, on Trump's personal attacks. I would have liked some variation of "Keep my family out of this, you creep!" when it came to Hunter Biden's laptop. When it comes to allegations of corruption in general, I would have liked to see not just denial and dismissal, but outrage and confrontation. "Senator Denies Corruption Charges" is almost a joke headline that is used to mean, "Senator is Guilty of Corruption Charges". I think denials are not enough. I would have rather seen, in response to "lock him up" chants, a comment like, "You have something on me? Bring it on. Put up or shut up, jackass!"

The sort of poison that Wormtongue Trump spews really does do damage if it is not countered.

However, I'm not a campaign advisor, so tonight we'll see if he did it right.
 
William Parcher said:
Will we know who is the winner today, or will it take longer?
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That will depend on whether the MSM and such like the answer or not. If it looks like Trump is winning, then it will definitely take longer - to see if they can change the answer or not.
 
acbytesla said:
The last half hour I was in Ferndale, WA Macdonald's. There were 5 big pickups with rednecks in Cammo gear honking horns with huge Trump flags. But there were also 4 other vehicles in the parking lot with Biden bumber stickers. You would hardly notice them if you didn't look.
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I just browsed a Yahoo story about these Trumpers who have been blocking highways and such with their rolling caravans of trucks (with apparent ties to QAnon). The line that stuck out with me is that they are claiming to "remind people of traditional American Values." My question is, what, the traditional American value to be a jackass?!
 
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gregthehammer said:
I just browsed a Yahoo story about these Trumpers who have been blocking highways and such with their rolling caravans of trucks (with apparent ties to QAnon). The line that stuck out with me is that they are claiming to "remind people of traditional American Values." My question is, what, the traditional American value to be a jackass?!
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Loud, boorish, in your face, braggarts who aren't worried about who doesn't like us?

To be fair, it really does sound a bit like us.

U - S - A! U - S - A!
 
Meadmaker said:
Loud, boorish, in your face, braggarts who aren't worried about who doesn't like us?

To be fair, it really does sound a bit like us.

U - S - A! U - S - A!
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all i know, if one of these roving caravans blocks my path home, i most likely will have a full bladder, and will not be afraid to use it on the nearest bro truck
 
gregthehammer said:
I just browsed a Yahoo story about these Trumpers who have been blocking highways and such with their rolling caravans of trucks (with apparent ties to QAnon). The line that stuck out with me is that they are claiming to "remind people of traditional American Values." My question is, what, the traditional American value to be a jackass?!
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As i said, they are just mad about being called deplorable. In protest, they act like this. That will show everyone how deplorable they really are!
 
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