Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[dann]

Quarantine (two weeks!) for Danes from the Copenhagen region entering Germany.
Tyskland har indført 14 dages karantæne for rejsende fra Region Hovedstaden (DR.dk, Sep. 24, 2020)

 

[dann]

Sweden's Johan Giesecke recommends herd immunity strategy for Ireland

Irland bör låta coronaviruset spridas bland människor yngre än 60 år, det rådet ger Sveriges tidigare statsepidemiolog Johan Giesecke landets parlament, skriver Irish Times. Giesecke är rådgivare för WHO och det är i den rollen han gav det irländska parlamentet rådgivning.
Giesecke uppmanar politikerna att inte bygga sin coronastrategi kring ett kommande vaccin.
"Vi kan behöva vänta på det och det kanske inte är så effektivt för dem som behöver det mest", säger han.
Senaste nytt om coronaviruset (SVT.se, Sep. 23, 2020 – 22:39)

Ireland should let the coronavirus spread among people younger than 60. Sweden’s former national epidmiologist Johan Giesecke gives this advice to Ireland’s parliament, Irish Times writes. Giesecke is a WHO adviser, and he advised the Irish parliament in this role.
Giesecke calls on the politicians not to base their corona strategy on a vaccine.
”We might have to wait for it and it may not be very effective in those who need it most,” he says.

Furthermore, Ireland should also stop aiming for Covid-free status or even for levels as low as in July at the end of lockdown, the president of the Irish Society of Clinical Microbiology, Kirsten Schaffer, is to tell the committee.
The “economic and social impact would be devastating”, she says in an opening statement.
Addressing the committee on Wednesday morning, Dr Johan Giesecke has said his country’s “soft lockdown” worked because the country trusted its people.
Let coronavirus spread through under-60 population, Dáil committee told (IrishTimes, Sep. 23, 2020)

And we all know how fabulously well it worked in Sweden, Tegnell's Swedish strategy:
Deaths per million
Sweden: 581
Ireland: 362
Old people in Ireland will appreciate the message that dying is so much more effective than vaccines.
And it is bound to work so much better in Ireland than in Sweden:

Population density
Sweden: 25.4 inhabitants per km²Ireland: 72 per km²

 

[dann]

Giesecke backtracks on herd-immunity strategy in Ireland

Speaking later, Dr Giesecke denied that he was prescribing the Swedish model for Ireland after it was put to him that differences between Ireland and Sweden’s population densities, classroom sizes, and sick pay entitlements would likely mean different outcomes in the two countries.

“I’m not prescribing anything for Ireland,” he told Drivetime on RTÉ Radio One. “You have to make your own decisions. That’s not up to me.
“What you just told me, I’m unaware of this. I’m objecting to you saying I’m telling Ireland what to do. I’m not.

“What you’re telling me is a lot of things I don’t know. I was asked to join this committee. I didn’t volunteer for it. With all this knowledge of the Irish situation, and the way your country works, I can’t tell you that this would be better for Ireland.”
Swedish expert backtracks on herd immunity for Ireland (IrishTimes, Sep. 23, 2020)

The HSE's Chief Clinical Officer, Dr Colm Henry, said "The strongest defenses in a nursing home cannot withstand a virus that can enter through multiple entrances."

"It can enter through visitors and health care workers. The thought then that we should expect older people to cocoon themselves and promote some kind of apartheid in society where they're left to defend for themselves while the rest of us live a-symptomatic or low symptomatic live. I don't think it's acceptable in a civilised society."
Chief Clinical Officer dismisses Swedish advisor's advice to adopt herd immunity (IrishExaminer, Sep. 23, 2020)

NPHET's epidemiological modelling advisory group chair Professor Philip Nolan said tonight there was no guarantee herd immunity would work and is ethically questionable.
(...)
Dr Henry said that isolating older people and letting them "fend for themselves" is "simply not acceptable and has no place in a civilized society".
Acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn added that the strategy ignores the increasing evidence around the long-term effects of Covid-19 on people of all ages.
"The disease has consequences for people of all ages. It's certainly not a strategy that will be adopted in this country," he said.
'An awful lot of young people might have to die' if we were to pursue herd immunity, Prof Nolan says (TheJournal.ie, Sep. 23, 2020)

I wonder why SVT.se didn't tell its readers about this!

 

[dann]

Thursday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 24, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 581 (5,878) 533* 15 *according to SVT.se
Denmark: 111 (645) 559 14
Finland: 62 (343) 91 4
Norway: 50 (270) 70 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 36 0
Iceland has 352 active cases, Faroe Islands 35, New Zealand 65.
The Faroe Islands have 223 in quarantine, 1 hospitalized, and all tests from yesterday analyzed.
Two positive tests have so far been registered among students and staff at Tórshavn’s Glasir college (KVF.fo, Sep. 24, 2020)
No changes to Covid guidelines (KVF.fo, Sep. 24, 2020)

 

[dann]

Sverige har lige nu færre smittede end Danmark - og det skyldes en klar strategi, siger Tegnell (TV2.dk, Sep. 24, 2020)

Anders Tegnell hänvisar till ett Youtube-klipp av debattören Ivor Cummins och en ogranskad studie när han diskuterar svensk coronadödlighet.
– Det är bara att googla på Ivor Cummins så förstår man att han inte är någon trovärdig källa, säger Daniel Berglind, folkhälsoforskare på Karolinska institutet.
Därför hänvisar Tegnell till ifrågasatt Youtube-klipp (DagensNyheter.se, Sep.23, 2020)

When Anders Tegnell discusses Swedish corona deaths, he refers to a Youtube clip by Ivor Cummins and a study that hasn’t been peer-reviewed.
-All you have to do is google Ivor Cummins, then you will understand that he isn’t a reliable source, says Daniel Berlind, public health researcher at the Karolinska Institute.
Why Anders Tegnell refers to contested Youtube clip

Ivor Cummins is an Irish fan of herd immunity. And yes, it doesn't take much googling to discover that he is not a reliable source.

 

[dann]

Timing of lockdown is everything. A lockdown that is too late, and moreover was preceded by a period when the government actively tried to encourage the virus to spread across the country, doesn't lead to a low death toll.

Five criteria for easing lockdown restrictions:

Countries should not ease coronavirus lockdown restrictions until they meet five criteria -- and many nations are not even close, according to a new analysis published in The Lancet medical journal.
The research, published Thursday, said that the prerequisites for easing Covid-19 measures are: knowledge of infection status, community engagement, adequate public health capacity, adequate health system capacity and border controls.
The authors looked at nine high-income countries and territories that have started to relax restrictions -- Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Norway, Spain and the UK. They found that many governments had failed to meet the criteria necessary to avoid new waves of infection, as seen in Spain, Germany and the UK.
Countries should meet these five criteria before easing lockdowns, study says. Many aren't even close (CNN, Sep. 25, 2020)

 

[dann]

Friday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 25, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 581 (5,880) 634* 15 *according to SVT.se
Denmark: 112 (647) 678 16
Finland: 62 (343) 105 2
Norway: 50 (270) 72 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 49 0
Iceland has 400 active cases, Faroe Islands 41, New Zealand 60.
The Faroe Islands have 229 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, 21 tests awaiting results.

No-one is currently receiving hospital treatment for Covid-19, and 229 people are now listed as being in quarantine.
The daily number of positive Covid tests over the past week has been as follows: 1, 1, 3, 3, 11, 3, 4 and 3.
Three new Covid-19 cases were registered yesterday (KVF.fo, Sep. 25, 2020)

A cluster of around 100 Covid-19 cases in Iceland have been traced back to two French tourists who refused to isolate, a local newspaper reports.
The French pair arrived in Iceland in mid August and were instructed to remain in isolation after testing positive for the coronavirus, the country’s chief epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason said.
Coronavirus live news (TWNews, Sep. 25, 2020)

 

[dann]

Smittspridningen ökar: Så är läget i Norden just nu (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 25, 2020)
The spread of the virus is increasing: The situation in the Nordic countries right now - Paywall, unfortunately

Efter regeringens coronakommission – nu startar Kungliga Vetenskapsakademien en egen expertgrupp för att granska covid-19. Tidigare statsepidemiolog Annika Linde ingår i gruppen.
– Vi har lyckats få några av de allra mest framstående forskarna och experterna inom området att ställa upp, säger Göran K Hansson, ständig sekreterare.
Kritiserade regeringens coronakommission – startar egen expertgrupp (DagensNyheter.se, Sep. 24, 2020)

After the government’s corona commission – the Royal Academy of Science is now creating its own group of experts to research Covid-19. Former natonal epidemiologist Annika Linde is a member of the group.
- We managed to get some for the most outstanding researchers and experts in the field to participate, says Göran K Hansson.
Criticized the government’s corona commission – creates its own group of experts

I have mentioned Annika Linde a couple of times before. She was in on the herd-immunity strategy, at first, but later turned against it and against Giesecke and Tegnell when the death toll from the strategy became obvious and when Tegnell and the Public Health Agency denied that it had ever been Sweden’s strategy. At this point, at least Giesecke seems to be open about it, cf. his advice for the Irish government.

Danska forskaren Kim Sneppen tror att coronapandemin kan vara över i Sverige. Han berättar vad han tror är nyckeln till att Sverige kan lyckas – och han säger att han tycker att Danmark borde ha gjort som Sverige.
Pandemin kan vara över i Sverige (Expressen.se, Sep. 24, 2020)

Danish researcher Kim Sneppen thinks that the corona pandemic may be over in Sweden. He tells us what he thinks is the key for Sweden to succeed – and he says that he thnks that Denmark should have done what Sweden did.
The pandemic may be over in Sweden

Sweden's coronavirus pandemic 'may be finished': Danish researcher (Kim Sneppen) (TheLocal, Sep. 19, 2020)

Last week, Sweden’s increasing numbers weren’t yet as obvious as they are now, even if they are still lower than Denmark’s at this point.

 

[dann]

At a press briefing last night, the ban on gatherings of more than 50 people was extended to private parties:
Forsamlingsforbud på mere end 50 personer gælder nu også private arrangementer (DR.dk, Sep. 25, 2020)

And the restrictions from last week have been prolonged untill October 18, for now:
Myndighederne forlænger restriktioner (TV2.dk, Sep. 25, 2020)

Tidligere direktør i Statens Serum Institut opfordrer til at lukke skoler i to uger (TV2.dk, Sep. 25, 2020)
The former leader of Statens Serum Institut calls for a lockdown of schools for two weeks

 

[Tippit]

Danish researcher Kim Sneppen thinks that the corona pandemic may be over in Sweden. He tells us what he thinks is the key for Sweden to succeed – and he says that he thnks that Denmark should have done what Sweden did.
The pandemic may be over in Sweden

Sweden's coronavirus pandemic 'may be finished': Danish researcher (Kim Sneppen) (TheLocal, Sep. 19, 2020)

Last week, Sweden’s increasing numbers weren’t yet as obvious as they are now, even if they are still lower than Denmark’s at this point.

Kudos for posting a link that contradicts your own confirmation bias.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dann]

Thank you for the kudos, but I don't have confirmation bias. If I did, the recent Danish numbers would have made me sadder than they already do.

Saturday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Sep. 26, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 581 (5,880) * 15 *according to SVT.se No new Swedish numbers till Tuesday.
Denmark: 112 (648) 619 17* *11 of the 17 on ventilators, according to DR.dk
Finland: 62 (343) 93 2
Norway: 50 (270) 44 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 40 0
Iceland has 435 active cases, Faroe Islands 43, New Zealand 61.
The Faroe Islands have 229 in quarantine, 0 hospitalized, all tests analyzed.

The daily number of positive Covid tests over the past week has been as follows: 1, 3, 3, 11, 3, 4, 3 and 3.
Three new cases (KVF.fo, Sep. 26, 2020)

One of the more absurd cases, but not yet a case of coronavirus, obviously:
Borger blev testet for coronavirus 24 gange på 14 dage (TV2.dk, Sep. 26, 2020)
Was tested for coronavirus 24 times in 14 days
There are no details, but I assume it’s a hypochondriac. It might be a good idea to tell him or her that it is probably safer to stay at home instead of spending so much time going to the testing clinics and running the risk of getting infected.

 

[Rolfe]

Scotland was behind Denmark in new daily cases but is now shooting past. This is not good. Our positivity rate has also gone up to 11.5%. We had the chance to stop this but we opened up and let students go back to university and children go back to school and everybody go back to the pub, and here we are.

I still don't know whether this was Nicola Sturgeon being stupid or duplicitous or both (so much for the "zero covid" effort) and how much was because she felt she couldn't impose more strict requirements than England, but it hardly matters at this stage. We're screwed until there's a vaccine.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

And still nobody really knows much about the virus. It's all guess-work from one day to the next. "Experts" running around like chickens with their heads cut off and starting each sentence with, "Well, basically ......" even though their basis shifts from one end to the other - isolation or exposure? They don't know for sure but they pretend to have the situation well in hand.

 

[banquetbear]

And still nobody really knows much about the virus. It's all guess-work from one day to the next. "Experts" running around like chickens with their heads cut off and starting each sentence with, "Well, basically ......" even though their basis shifts from one end to the other - isolation or exposure? They don't know for sure but they pretend to have the situation well in hand.

...New Zealand, by knowing much about the virus (and certainly not through guesswork) just finished eliminating Covid-19 from community spread for the SECOND time. The experts aren't running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Instead those experts told us at the start of the pandemic what would happen if we listened to them, we listened to them, and we discovered that those expert were correct.

Nobody here is pretending that they have the situation well in hand. We actually have the situation well in hand.

 

[lionking]

...New Zealand, by knowing much about the virus (and certainly not through guesswork) just finished eliminating Covid-19 from community spread for the SECOND time. The experts aren't running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Instead those experts told us at the start of the pandemic what would happen if we listened to them, we listened to them, and we discovered that those expert were correct.

Nobody here is pretending that they have the situation well in hand. We actually have the situation well in hand.

Yes, and well done NZ. You have controlled the virus magnificently. But don’t think you have eliminated it. Until a good vaccine turns up, this won’t happen.

Still, good show.

 

[banquetbear]

Yes, and well done NZ. You have controlled the virus magnificently. But don’t think you have eliminated it.

...elimination is a technical word that means we have "eradication of an infectious disease at a country or regional level", and both describes the state we are currently in and the strategy we used to get there. So yes, we did eliminate it and we were Covid-free (in the community) for over a hundred days. We had a mysterious new community outbreak in August, we limited its spread then stamped it out and it now appears we have eliminated it again.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31097-7/fulltext

https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-art...pandemic-and-what-is-required-to-make-it-work

https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/new-zealands-covid-19-elimination-strategy

Australia has adopted a suppression strategy. It could, if it wanted to, adopt an elimination strategy: it case load is low enough to be able to manage to do so if it wishes. But it requires public health measures that align with that goal, which was kinda my point in my post addressed to Clutch Cargo. Based on the facts we had at the time we decided on an elimination strategy and that strategy was successful: and when we had a new outbreak we continued with the strategy (learning from mistakes in places like Victoria) and it appears to have been successful again.

 

[Clutch Cargo]

...New Zealand, by knowing much about the virus (and certainly not through guesswork) just finished eliminating Covid-19 from community spread for the SECOND time. The experts aren't running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Instead those experts told us at the start of the pandemic what would happen if we listened to them, we listened to them, and we discovered that those expert were correct.

Nobody here is pretending that they have the situation well in hand. We actually have the situation well in hand.

I am pleased that New Zealand is so chuffed with their situation but seriously .... "eliminating" something twice is a bit of a contradiction. And that, my friend, disagrees with the statement, "We actually have the situation well in hand".

What you seem to be insinuating is that if the whole world followed the advice of those "experts" then the virus would be "eliminated". You and I both know very well it's not true. That is to say that history indicates it cannot be true. In order to actually eliminate the virus something else is needed and whatever that is ... we don't yet have it. Admitting that to ourselves (if not publicly) makes it obvious that the matter is not "well in hand". The experts may be offering sound advice but in reality it isn't much more than a placebo for the masses. We "want" to believe them, quite naturally, but until a cure is found/created the remedy is (and always will be) immunity .... either by natural selection or by medical intervention. As it stands we are skirting around imaginary obstacles believing that if we hadn't washed our hands after touching the lamppost ... we'd be dead.

 

[banquetbear]

I am pleased that New Zealand is so chuffed with their situation but seriously .... "eliminating" something twice is a bit of a contradiction. And that, my friend, disagrees with the statement, "We actually have the situation well in hand".

...yep. We are pretty chuffed at being able to keep people alive. We went with an elimination strategy because that was the most likely way we could keep thousands of New Zealanders dying.

What you seem to be insinuating is that if the whole world followed the advice of those "experts" then the virus would be "eliminated".

If I had intended to say this then I would have said it. That I didn't say this means only a single thing: I didn't say this, I never intended to say this, I have not insinuated this.

You and I both know very well it's not true.

You presented a strawman then argued against it. The thing that I never said happens to be not true? Sure.

That is to say that history indicates it cannot be true.

History shows that it is true.

In order to actually eliminate the virus something else is needed and whatever that is ... we don't yet have it.

Incorrect. The virus can be (epidemiologically) eliminated using the elimination strategy that New Zealand adopted. And we know that we can do that because we've done that twice. It appears you don't understand the context in which elimination has been used here. Can I suggest you spend a bit of time reading the reference material I provided in my previous post?

Admitting that to ourselves (if not publicly) makes it obvious that the matter is not "well in hand". The experts may be offering sound advice but in reality it isn't much more than a placebo for the masses.

It isn't a "placebo for the masses." We could literally see the strategy working in the daily updates. In the latest outbreak the nation got daily reports as we watched our trackers and tracers in action, we saw them follow the outbreak as it moved from South Auckland over to the North Shore, we saw the outbreak of a sub-cluster, we saw them bring both of them under control. This wasn't a placebo. It was a strategy that New Zealand pursued from the outset. It was explained to us in detail as we went into the first lockdown. And it worked.

We "want" to believe them, quite naturally, but until a cure is found/created the remedy is (and always will be) immunity .... either by natural selection or by medical intervention.

In New Zealand we do believe them because unlike most of the rest of the world we haven't had mass death and I've got the freedom to do pretty much anything I want to do right now. I'm not in lockdown. I don't have to wear a mask. I don't have to social distance.

As it stands we are skirting around imaginary obstacles believing that if we hadn't washed our hands after touching the lamppost ... we'd be dead.

Nope. We are in the middle of a global pandemic. Hundreds of thousands have died already. If governments had listened to the scientific experts then that death toll would have been substantially lower. But because they didn't listen to the experts, had half-hearted ineffective lockdowns and opened things up too early, things haven't gone badly. This isn't the fault of the experts. The science is pretty sound and the best ways to manage a pandemic really hasn't changed.

 

[lionking]

Perhaps I’m being pedantic, but I think I am in good company. Polio hadn’t been eradicated nor has measles despite vaccines. There have been only two viruses eradicated, according to the WHO:

https://asm.org/Articles/2020/March/Disease-Eradication-What-Does-It-Take-to-Wipe-out

To date, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared only 2 diseases officially eradicated: smallpox caused by variola virus (VARV) and rinderpest caused by the rinderpest virus (RPV).

As I said, well done NZ. Even in Victoria we are close to controlling it. But we won’t eradicate it and neither will you without a vaccine.

 

[lionking]

I can predict that you will say “but we have eradicated it in NZ”. How do you know? Will you guarantee that it won’t break out again in NZ?