2020 Presidential Election

[Mumbles]

I'm not the right person to analyse this, but FiveThirtyEight seems to show Biden's lead increasing. This close to the election, shouldn't the two start to draw closer and closer, not pull apart? Or is it too early for that? Or is it as the fox says, the polls are becoming less reliable?

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_176055f6750618fba0.jpg[/qimg]

The polls themselves? Yes, and last I checked, this was sort of happening, albeit not on any major scale, asm they've drawn together by about 0.6 or so.

Problem is, the polls become less likely to break as we get closer to the election - particularly now that people in many states are beginning to vote, through absentee ballots or early voting. And since many people are planning to do one or the other, and more states are beginning to mail out ballots and open early voting locations, more people will effectively "lock in" their votes.

The truth is, all we have are random events (unlikely, and could easily widen Biden's lead), the debates (which almost never cause lasting poll changes in modern elections - Clinton more or less stomped all over Dolt 45 in their debates to no lasting effect), and really foul play (such as the goons that tried to block early voting in Virginia - courts are unlikely to interfere with elections unless necessary in december). In other words, this was always Biden's to lose, and he's not losing.

 

[Elagabalus]

So left wingers like Alex Jones who believes in the 911 CT?

I think we are in 'start a new thread' territory here.

There's some wacky ultra-left CT in Qanon. Why do you think Julian Assange is coming to America to tell the truth about Hillary before Congress?

 

[Mumbles]

There's some wacky ultra-left CT in Qanon. Why do you think Julian Assange is coming to America to tell the truth about Hillary before Congress?

It's really far past time to write off the whole "Assange/Wikileaks is far left" thing - and for that matter, add Glenn Greenwald to the list for a number of reasons. The "horseshoe theory" of politics, in the end, is less about both sides ending up having the same positions, and more about the complete lack of forethought among some idealists.v It's actually pretty easy to find full-on socialists to the left of Sanders, who also plainly stated that Clinton was getting their vote back in 2016.

The folks on the supposed left that still endorse the above characters are rather like the so-called socialists that recently insisted that Cornel West had convinced white nationalist Tucker Carlson to become a democratic socialist - using a short clip from years ago, before Carlson denounced "diversity" declared Hispanic immigrants "dirty" and Black Lives Matter as "terrorists", and so forth. Or for a less extreme case, the folks on Sanders' campaign that touted the (actually nonexistent) endorsement of podcast host Joe Rogan. Obsessed with one or two soundbites, but no ability to actually plan a strategy for success.

 

[kookbreaker]

Looks like the Republican Party officially supports thugs trying to shut down the election

I should remind folks that Fox News and the GOP crapped their pants for four years(2008-2012) over one guy in North Philadelphia being obnoxious at a polling location.

Then they proceeded to crap their pants for several more years after they found that, gollygee, nobody voted GOP in several wards in North Philadelphia!! They built entire websites devoted to 'proof' of Democratic fraudulent voting (such as the laughable one by the Unskewed Polls guy. Even the Philadelphia GOP told them to slow their roll and give the allegations a rest.

 

[Venom]

So left wingers like Alex Jones who believes in the 911 CT?

I think we are in 'start a new thread' territory here.

Rule of so.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Laura Ingraham Tweets

@IngrahamAngle
Do Dems have a candidate for president, and if so where is he?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Joe Biden Tweeted

@JoeBiden
I’m Joe Biden and I approve this message.

(Video in link of Trump saying "If I lose to him, I don't know what I'm going to do. You will probably never see me again")

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1307491919384260609

 

[JoeMorgue]

ETA: Sorry meant to put this in the general President Trump thread where the event had already been discussed. Disregard.

An arrest has been made in the case of the Ricin laced letters sent to President Trump. A female suspect has been arrested at the Canadian border. No details as of now.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/20/politics/poison-ricin-addressed-trump-arrest/index.html

 

[Safe-Keeper]

(Video in link of Trump saying "If I lose to him, I don't know what I'm going to do. You will probably never see me again")

Don't get our hopes up, Donald.

 

[Stacyhs]

Joe Biden Tweeted

@JoeBiden
I’m Joe Biden and I approve this message.

(Video in link of Trump saying "If I lose to him, I don't know what I'm going to do. You will probably never see me again")

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1307491919384260609

God, I hope so. I'd love nothing better than never to see him again.

 

[Venom]

I am nervous about the impending *********** when Trump is shown to be leading early, because most Democrats in some states would be voting by mail, only to be losing the next morning.

He's gonna get his people to turn out armed at polling stations.

 

[Minoosh]

They should put out a campaign ad with clips showing trump talking about seizing guns then fighting it in courts later, along with the statement "do you really trust trump to protect gun rights?"

Granted stubby Mcbonespurs was lying back then, but it still might be an embarrassment to him.

I don't think he was lying. He's blurted out quite a few things that make sense, only to backpedal later when they fail to win him acclaim. He wanted a better health-care system and said the US would "work with" families on immigration issues. But then he found out that repealing Obamacare and deporting 12 million people was more in line with his voters' core values. He also tried to say, "We don't want to lock her up anymore" but the rally crowd didn't buy it.

I think he despises them. And maybe fears them.

 

[Stacyhs]

I don't think he was lying. He's blurted out quite a few things that make sense, only to backpedal later when they fail to win him acclaim. He wanted a better health-care system and said the US would "work with" families on immigration issues. But then he found out that repealing Obamacare and deporting 12 million people was more in line with his voters' core values. He also tried to say, "We don't want to lock her up anymore" but the rally crowd didn't buy it.

I think he despises them. And maybe fears them.

He despises everyone because he's a narcissistic psychopath with the exception of kindred spirits like Putin, Kim Jong-un, etc.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Donald Trump Jr. Tweeted
@DonaldJTrumpJr
Confused on how to vote? We have made it extremely simple — takes 30 seconds to register, to request an absentee or mail in ballot, or to find all dates for your State! Simply visit below.
Donald J. Trump for President
Help continue our promise to Make America Great Again!
donaldjtrump.com

 

[The Great Zaganza]

The most effective Ad, IMO, that the Lincoln Project could make would be of the many, many instances in which Trump smack-talks enemies and opponents by comparing them to dogs;

and then juxtaposition that with images of the rescue dog Biden and Obama adopted while in the white house.

According to Wiki, Donald Trump is the first president since James K. Polk 11th President, 1846) to not have a presidential pet while in office.

Animal lovers might take note of that fact.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I think they could show the Berlin wall and the wall Trump has built around the Whitehouse.

 

[angrysoba]

This close to the election, shouldn't the two start to draw closer and closer, not pull apart? Or is it too early for that?

Is there any iron law that polls must tighten closer to an election?

I suppose there is the possibility that voters who started flirting with the idea of voting the other way, return to the fold (and Republicans seem to be particularly well known for falling in line). If that's the case, maybe it is too early.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Is there any iron law that polls must tighten closer to an election?

There is, kinda:
the media has an incentive to make a look race more competitive than it actually is. As a result, they tend to give the underdog more airtime and get more critical of the frontrunner.

I suppose there is the possibility that voters who started flirting with the idea of voting the other way, return to the fold (and Republicans seem to be particularly well known for falling in line). If that's the case, maybe it is too early.

I think there is a knee-jerk reaction in voters not to let any one side win too big.

 

[angrysoba]

I think there is a knee-jerk reaction in voters not to let any one side win too big.

No way! That is not how people vote. Have you ever met a voter who decided to vote for Person B to stop Person A getting too many votes?

No? That's because it absolutely never happens.

People vote primarily for their party. It is almost totally tribal, with a few "undecideds" in the middle.

Most will vote for a turd in a wig if it is their party. The Republicans literally did that last presidential election, and almost 90% of them will reliably do the same this year too.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

They don't switch sides, but they do stay home.