Predction: Trump will be pardoned by Biden if he wins

[shuttlt]

acbytesla is right, of course: a President can only pardon Federal Crimes.

But the thing about Pardons is that you have to accept guilt to make a Pardon work - so it is not like the crime never happened, it is just that it won't have any consequences.
There is a distinction there, if you squint hard enough.

This is clearly not how the Nixon pardon worked.

 

[shuttlt]

Yes and no. He would have to be pardoned at the State and Federal levels. Pence if he becomes President could pardon Trump for any and all crimes against the United States. But Trump could easily be prosecuted for crimes against various States most probably the state of New York. That would require Cuomo to issue a pardon. Not likely.

There is no possibility of the precedent being set that any random state can convict a former President of acts done in office. Anybody who thinks that that is going to happen is dreaming.

 

[shuttlt]

Yes.

In addition, the act of pardoning Trump for things he's done implicitly says that the pardoner believes Trump broke the law, and in accepting the pardon Trump is implicitly confirming that he knows what he did was illegal. That's something Trump would probably prefer not to admit.

Of course he can accept a pardon while denying any crimes. His supporters already believe the impeachment and all the Russia stuff were politically motivated. It's hardly much of a stretch if you believe that to believe that there might be future politically motivated prosecutions that he needs to be protected from. I don't think that will be necessary though as I don't think there is any chance of him being prosecuted after he leaves office.

But the larger problem for Trump is that if he is pardoned for those crimes he can no longer plead the 5th amendment in relation to what he knows about those crimes.

Even if that is true, he can just say - "I do not recall".

And even if Trump can't be convicted of those crimes after he's been pardoned for them, those crimes still need to be investigated so we as a nation can understand better what happened and make sure it doesn't happen again and so that any others who were involved in these crimes can be tried and brought to justice. So once Trump has been pardoned for his crimes it will make very good sense to call Donald Trump in before congressional committees and before grand juries to tell in detail what he knows about the actions by himself and others in these matters.

Why in the world would he cooperate with such a process?

If he doesn't testify he's guilty of contempt and can be locked up; if he does testify but doesn't testify truthfully he's guilty of perjury and can be locked up;

Exactly, if he were to misstate anything, he would risk jail. "I do not recall" is the only rational response to any of this. He will suddenly turn out to be too old and confused to answer questions, just as happens pretty nearly every time in these circumstances.

and if he does testify and testifies truthfully a lot of his associates including family members are looking at some serious fines and jail time.

They are not going to set the precedent that you can do this to former Presidents.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

This is clearly not how the Nixon pardon worked.

arguably, it didn't.
There is a good argument to be made that the Nixon Pardon was flawed.
But if there are no prosecutors, there is no indictment.

 

[shuttlt]

But it wouldn't be just "any random state". It would be a state with a legitimate reason for indictment, and while I don't think that happening is by any means guaranteed, I think you are overly dismissive of the possibility.

You don't think red states and red judges might take a different view of what a "legitimate" reason might be? Any precedent set here can and will be used by the other side.

 

[shuttlt]

arguably, it didn't.
There is a good argument to be made that the Nixon Pardon was flawed.
But if there are no prosecutors, there is no indictment.

Nixon wasn't prosecuted, Trump will not be prosecuted. I can't believe they are mad enough to let a genie like that out of the bottle.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Nixon wasn't prosecuted, Trump will not be prosecuted. I can't believe they are mad enough to let a genie like that out of the bottle.

Trump is being prosecuted right now In NY.

 

[Aber]

From Nixon's pardon:

https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/speeches/740061.asp

Nixon didn't have to admit to anything and was pardoned for everything that he was known to have done, or might subsequently be found to have done.

While President.

Trump will almost certainly be prosecuted for fraud/tax evasion/money laundering etc carried out before he became President.

His entourage will be prosecuted for Hatch Act violations while Trump was President (Trump is immune on this).

Prosecuting Trump for other matters during his Presidency will be more difficult, but expect his entourage/family to be.

This needs to be done to deter the next populist and his hanger-ons from seeing the Presidency as a prize worth having.

 

[shuttlt]

Trump is being prosecuted right now In NY.

I thought that that was to get access to his tax records to see if there was a conflict of interest? Or are we talking about something else?

 

[shuttlt]

Trump will almost certainly be prosecuted for fraud/tax evasion/money laundering etc carried out before he became President.

That is more possible, but I think it's unlikely. Is the idea here that the IRS has been covering for his tax evasion and somehow that is going to come to light now? It could also be that he has been practicing tax avoidance, rather than tax evasion.

His entourage will be prosecuted for Hatch Act violations while Trump was President (Trump is immune on this).

I really don't think this is likely.

Prosecuting Trump for other matters during his Presidency will be more difficult, but expect his entourage/family to be.

I doubt this will happen once they become politically irrelevant.

This needs to be done to deter the next populist and his hanger-ons from seeing the Presidency as a prize worth having.

It opens a political can of worms where one side prosecutes the other once they leave office. I really doubt they are going to want to do this.

 

[Craig4]

Biden won't pardon Trump. It probably doesn't matter because Trump is in pressing legal jeopardy from the State of New York.

 

[whoanellie]

Biden sent a great big signal with the his statements to the press about is candidcy being about "healing" and "reconciliation". Nowhere in his statements is he talking about seeking justice for the treasonous crimes comitted by the regime.

I could be wrong. I hope I am. But the ticket is solidly Centrist, and the convention only gave progressive voices one real speaker who got short changed on time.

I will really be holding my nose to vote Blue this year. But Trump is on the verge of snuffing out American Democracy altogether and has to be stopped.

I suspect you are correct. Pardoning Trump would be consistent with historical precedent (see Nixon, Richard M.) and with Biden's centrist, waiting-for-the-fever-to-break mindset. The selling-point will be that Biden wants to focus on the future and not the past 4 years.

 

[shuttlt]

At this point it has become rather obvious that the radical right wing cares nothing for precedent. It makes no difference whether an indictment against Trump is forthcoming or not; if a red state/judge wants to indict a former Dem president they will do so, precedent be damned.

They don't seem to have done it up until now. It is the Democrats we are discussing doing it.

I'm far more concerned with the precedent of letting a president like Trump abuse the office to the extent that he has without consequence.

Sure, but you aren't let anywhere near the levers of power, so your concerns don't matter. We are talking about what the people who actually make these decisions will do.

Either action sets a precedent, you know. The fact that it sets a precedent is a weak argument against the probability of either outcome--A precedent of some sort will be set, whether you like it or not.

Nixon was already let off. I don't think letting off powerful people is a precedent that powerful people are as concerned about as you are.

I can easily imagine someone making your same argument against impeaching a president due to the precedent it would set. It's quite obviously wrong in that application, too.

Wasn't there some debate when the constitution was written about whether impeachment should be possible at all? The practical reality as far as I can see is that you need a sufficient consensus of opinion that impeachment ceases to be a partisan matter... or that the party in favour of impeachment is so dominant that the other party no longer matters.

 

[shuttlt]

I am aware of that, as well. If you think no one in power shares my concern, however, you are a fool. I'd also like to remind you that your concerns are every bit as irrelevant as my concerns, making your comment every bit as "damaging" to your claim as it is to mine; did you simply not think of that?

I was not talking about my concerns. I am well aware that my concerns have no influence on what will happen. I was talking about the concerns of the people who actually get to decide this. When Trump is out of the way, they are going to be much more concerned about not setting a precedent where important people like them get held criminally accountable.

Even Nixon didn't abuse the office to the extent that Trump has.

If you say so. Nonetheless, there is already a precedent that the President can be involved in criminal acts in office and isn't pursued out of office. It's about as likely as handing over Bush to the Hague for approving the use of torture.

Irrelevant. Impeachment is possible, after all.

Sure, impeachment is easy, getting a super majority in the Senate is the hard part.

None of which changes the fact that impeachment can be weaponized, just like you are arguing that indictment by a state can be weaponized.

Certainly an impeachment can be weaponized. However since it requires a super majority to remove the President, in practice you can't do it unless the whole country has turned against him, in the manner of Nixon. Doing anything about Trump is going to be far harder, and be far more damaging than doing anything about Nixon simply because of his approval levels.

None of which implies that the action won't be taken for fear of setting precedent.

A state could decide to do this, however... the federal government is never going to let it stand.

Indeed, one of those actions has been taken on three separate occasions.

Just as no President has ever been removed from office by impeachment, no President is going to be jailed for their actions in office by a State. The conditions that would politically allow it would mean the President could be tried federally.

 

[shuttlt]

Going back to the OP. If Biden were to pardon Trump, it would be because the political will was not to pursue him out of office. If that was the case, he wouldn't need a pardon.

Would they actually want a trial of Trump sucking all the air out of the room for another few years?

Any pardon would be political theatre for Biden.

 

[Segnosaur]

Biden won't pardon Trump. It probably doesn't matter because Trump is in pressing legal jeopardy from the State of New York.

Perhaps.

There are legal proceedings, but the question remains whether it will personally affect Trump. (Much like the whole 'Trump foundation' charges, it might just result in fines and/or actions against the Trump organization.)

Not that I think Trump is innocent, just that the legal system often fails to act against individuals involved in financial crimes.

 

[Segnosaur]

Trump is being prosecuted right now In NY.

I thought that that was to get access to his tax records to see if there was a conflict of interest? Or are we talking about something else?

The prosecutors have kept the details fairly secret (as expected), but there are a few things Trump can be investigated for:
- The payments to stormy daniels may have violated spending rules
- As suggested by Cohen, there may be fraud involving Trump over-estimating the values of certain properties to get bank loans and underestimating them when it comes to taxes

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Biden sent a great big signal with the his statements to the press about is candidcy being about "healing" and "reconciliation". Nowhere in his statements is he talking about seeking justice for the treasonous crimes comitted by the regime.

I could be wrong. I hope I am. But the ticket is solidly Centrist, and the convention only gave progressive voices one real speaker who got short changed on time.

I will really be holding my nose to vote Blue this year. But Trump is on the verge of snuffing out American Democracy altogether and has to be stopped.

I've certainly seen it suggested that it would be a wise move on his part, and entirely in keeping with history.

As for centrism, going by voting record Kamala Harris is further to the left than Bernie Sanders.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

There is also the libel lawsuit ongoing based on the accusation that Trump raped someone.

There is nothing Pence or Biden can do to pardon Trump from that.

 

[ChristianProgressive]

While President.

Trump will almost certainly be prosecuted for fraud/tax evasion/money laundering etc carried out before he became President.

His entourage will be prosecuted for Hatch Act violations while Trump was President (Trump is immune on this).

Prosecuting Trump for other matters during his Presidency will be more difficult, but expect his entourage/family to be.

This needs to be done to deter the next populist and his hanger-ons from seeing the Presidency as a prize worth having.

The real obstacle to prosecuting the regime will be it's obsessive secrecy. Tump and his cronies have taken every measure to ensure there is no "paper trail" to prosecute them with.