Cont: The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread pt. 2

[Skeptic Ginger]

That's beside the point. Assume it is wiped out. Don't vaccinate anyone, wait 100 years, then reintroduce. That is a much different situation and may have a different result than: don't vaccinate, wait eight years, then reintroduce. Of course, let's also assume it is something less dangerous than chickenpox is for adults, so that no measures would be taken to slow the spread.

What is the point of this mental exercise in nonsense?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It’s been said - e.g. SG - but worth repeating: COVID-19 immunity is not yet well understood. There are already reports of people who have got it, recovered, but gotten it again. ....

Staying away from this herd immunity discussion (because I don't see the point), just to clear this up: I did not say people had been infected twice with COVID 19. I said the evidence could mean a number of things from bad testing to failure to clear the virus then have it return.

We won't know if it is a new infection until it is proved with genetic documentation of infection with a different strain than the first strain.

 

[Silly Green Monkey]

If there was a long enough period of time between infections, even if both showed the same strain, like several months, wouldn't that indicate reinfection?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

If there was a long enough period of time between infections, even if both showed the same strain, like several months, wouldn't that indicate reinfection?

No. Believe it or not genetic mapping is very accurate. The genetic differences need not be large, but they will indicate a new infection vs relapse.

You can't use 'time' with viruses (and a number of bacterial pathogens) because there is no way to prove there aren't infected cells in the body that are not detected with a nasopharynx swab.

With some viral pathogens like hepatitis B and C, we use a 5 year timeframe to suggest cure like is used in cancer. So for example, no hep C in the blood and no symptoms for 5 years, you are probably cured.

We know so little about COVID 19, no one can say if there are cells it might lie dormant in for some time.

 

[Aridas]

Norwegian media has had a couple articles about Norwegians in Norway receiving checks from Trump. Apparently they sent them to all US citizens, regardlessly about where in the world they actually lived

Correction. Not all US citizens. There were exceptions in relation to citizens married to immigrants, IIRC. I want to call them odd, but... this is the Trump Administration.

Elsewhere...

California having hard time fighting wildfires because too many inmates have COVID-19 and can't help

 

[newyorkguy]

Back in June trump, at an event in Arizona celebrating the 200th mile of The Wall, told those assembled.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday touted the effectiveness and popularity of his border wall, stating that an unnamed “everyone” in San Diego asked him to build it to protect against a “highly-infected” but “wonderful town"on the other side of the border. Article in San Diego Union Tribune

trump repeated this meme Tuesday at an event in Yuma Arizona.

We put up 18 miles in San Diego, as an example, right opposite Tijuana. And Tijuana is probably the worst place in South America, in terms of the China virus. It’s — I think it is the worst place. And San Diego is not suffering at all because of it. So it’s — I mean, it’s an incredible thing that happened.

Of course it's all lies. Here's how the San Diego County supervisor, a Republican, responded back in June:

San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar wrote a letter in April to Vice President Mike Pence asking the White House to provide mutual aid to Mexico hospitals, temperature checks at the border and hotel reimbursements to essential hospital workers who live in Mexico but work in the United States. But, she says, she did not tell Trump she wanted a border wall. “Certainly not,” said Gaspar, a Republican, when asked if Trump was referring to her. “As you know, he makes this comment a lot but has never disclosed who he is referring to.”

We have really been cursed to have had this lunatic in the White House during a pandemic.

 

[The Don]

I was interested to read this on the BBC website:

President Donald Trump has criticised decisions to suspend in-person classes, saying it is "significantly safer for students to live with other young people than to go home and spread the virus to older Americans"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...3e4cb9ce818c06635182cb&pinned_post_type=share

This with respect to some prominent universities announcing that they are suspending in-person learning.

I guess the same concerns about young people going home and spreading the virus don't apply to schools.

 

[Craig4]

I was interested to read this on the BBC website:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...3e4cb9ce818c06635182cb&pinned_post_type=share

This with respect to some prominent universities announcing that they are suspending in-person learning.

I guess the same concerns about young people going home and spreading the virus don't apply to schools.

What I really don't understand is why universities and school districts in areas with test infection rates above ten percent are still trying to open? It's no secret anymore. We can see what happens when you do this.

 

[The Don]

What I really don't understand is why universities and school districts in areas with test infection rates above ten percent are still trying to open? It's no secret anymore. We can see what happens when you do this.

I understand.

When the schools open (in whichever country or locality) there are a number of benefits for the government.

Firstly it sends a clear message that things are returning to normal and that the government has successfully "beaten" Coronavirus.

Secondly it significantly lessens childcare concerns for parents who are currently struggling to find someone to look after their kids while they go out to work.

Thirdly it means that parents who don't wish to do so, no longer have to homeschool their children.

 

[ponderingturtle]

If there was a long enough period of time between infections, even if both showed the same strain, like several months, wouldn't that indicate reinfection?

Could be the same infection with a second flare up.

 

[Modified]

What is the point of this mental exercise in nonsense?

It was a question that came up in this thread: is it possible to have herd immunity for a disease without a vaccine?

 

[newyorkguy]

The question of herd immunity without vaccination has been asked and addressed several times in this thread. This is from the Mayo Clinic's website:

Herd immunity can also be reached when a sufficient number of people in the population have recovered from a disease and have developed antibodies against future infection. However, there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19. First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection...Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions. Mayo Clinic link

Overwhelming the health care system could obviously have truly catastrophic consequences. Back in April I listened to a New York public health official on a local radio program who said there was another danger to the 'let everybody catch, then it will be over' theory. This was when most of the state's non-essential businesses were shut down. The health official said that closing non-essential businesses was helping minimize the danger of infection to essential workers. He mentioned police officers -- at the time over 700 New York City cops were out sick -- firefighters, health care workers, transit employees, public utility workers (power, communications, water, sanitation) and the food supply workforce.

There's a lot of issues that aren't immediately apparent which is one of the problems trump has caused. he doesn't think in-depth, everything is just off the top of his head. On the radio show I listened to, the interviewer said to the health official, "Now I'm beginning to understand the reasons for the shutdown." The health official said that letting the virus have free rein at the public at large could produce some very dire circumstances. That 'unforeseen consequences' could pose a real danger. That most public officials were aware of this and didn't want to 'let the genie out of the bottle' so to speak.

The host said, "Because once he's out, you can't get him back in." The health offical agreed, saying, "Exactly."

 

[Aridas]

To poke at a couple articles...

Miami-Dade schools say almost 600 staff have tested positive for coronavirus

And...

Coronavirus in Europe: dozens of schools report infections in Berlin

Cases on rise across Europe with Spain alone registering nearly 70,000 in past fortnight

I think that the titles are decently self-explanatory.

 

[Darat]

To poke at a couple articles...

Miami-Dade schools say almost 600 staff have tested positive for coronavirus

And...

Coronavirus in Europe: dozens of schools report infections in Berlin

Cases on rise across Europe with Spain alone registering nearly 70,000 in past fortnight

I think that the titles are decently self-explanatory.

I've just posted the Guardian link into the Non-US equivalent thread.

I think our politicians should be carefully looking at this empirical data.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

To poke at a couple articles...

Miami-Dade schools say almost 600 staff have tested positive for coronavirus

And...

Coronavirus in Europe: dozens of schools report infections in Berlin

Cases on rise across Europe with Spain alone registering nearly 70,000 in past fortnight

I think that the titles are decently self-explanatory.

From the first link:

This number is about 600% larger than the figure that Superintendent Alberto Carvalho’s chief of staff at Miami-Dade Schools gave the press in July.

 

[newyorkguy]

...Coronavirus in Europe: dozens of schools report infections in Berlin...

From the linked article, which is from The Guardian:

Coronavirus cases have been reported by at least 41 schools in Berlin, barely two weeks after the German capital’s 825 schools reopened...The disclosure by Berlin city education authorities that hundreds of students and teachers have had to quarantine has underlined once more how little is known about the risk of infection in school settings, despite the insistence of governments and experts, including in the UK, that reopening schools is safe given the right precautions...all age groups have been affected, including in elementary schools, high schools and trade schools.

Many school districts in New York -- especially in the downstate region -- have started announcing they will NOT be reopening for normal in-school classes, at least through September. As a parent I think that's the right decision. As a parent what I don't understand is this certainty some parents seem to have that, "Nothing can go wrong. There will not be an outbreak in my child's school." This insistence that young children are at no risk. I wish they would explain how it happens that they know this, when the medical profession emphasizes, 'We don't know.' I hope, in the light of what's happening in Europe these parents will be a tad less sure of themselves. Stop passing off their opinions -- which seem dangerously rooted in personal political beliefs -- as facts. Because the truth is, they DON'T KNOW, no one does. Let's not throw caution to the winds. Damn!

 

[Sherkeu]

To poke at a couple articles...

Miami-Dade schools say almost 600 staff have tested positive for coronavirus

And...

Coronavirus in Europe: dozens of schools report infections in Berlin

Cases on rise across Europe with Spain alone registering nearly 70,000 in past fortnight

I think that the titles are decently self-explanatory.

Not really self- explanatory. What does it mean for public health?
Are more people getting sick and/or dying?
Or is the testing getting better?
I can never tell with those types of headlines.

 

[Aridas]

Not really self- explanatory. What does it mean for public health?
Are more people getting sick and/or dying?
Or is the testing getting better?
I can never tell with those types of headlines.

The self explanatory part is the facts, which is why I thought it worthwhile to point at. Extrapolations about good, bad, and acceptable aren't really what I intended to deal with there, so much as adding information to work with to consideration. To be clear, I'm not arguing either for or against school reopenings - that, after all, is a much more complex question that I think that I'm not especially well equipped to deal with compared to the people who are much more actively involved with said schools and the kids.

As for Florida - at last check, testing is falling and the state government had been repeatedly engaging in what should likely be illegal shenanigans with the numbers, so...

 

[Craig4]

The Stupid Bitch in Chief is having a news conference on Sunday to announce a breakthrough on a therapeutic. Any bets? I'm sure it will be a non-event being blown way out of proportion.

 

[kookbreaker]

Its either gonna be him pushing for Oleander, or he’s going to sing praises of a treatment that worked really well on mice. Which has great potential but right now it....only shows promise in mice.