Cont: The Trump Presidency: Part 24

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The Don said:
50% or more of the electorate are desperate to support the President because they think that it's the patriotic thing to do. President Trump keeps giving enough of them reasons to not support him that his approval is consistently around 40%.

If he manages not to do or say anything outrageous for a couple of days, people think he's pivoting to presidential (despite all the evidence to the contrary) and so his approval numbers will start to rise. Of course the bar for outrageous has also been continuously raised for the last four years or so. Something which would have been a major scandal, hardly causes a ripple these days.

I'm sticking with my (depressing) forecast that President Trump has a greater than 50% chance of reelection. Look for the grand announcement that there is a vaccine about 2 weeks before the election.
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Expecting the announcement 2 weeks before the election assumes that Trump has the ability and desire to follow the recommendations of his advisors. Following recommendations requires President Trump to acknowledge that someone else knows more than Trump’s gut.
Therefore the announcement I s going to happen well before the most opportune time.

ETA
I just realized a problem with my reasoning.
It assumes that if POTUS plays the we’ve-got-a-cure card and it is shown to be a lie, then it will take 4-8 weeks for the public to build enough trust to fall for it a second (or third) time. We have fallen pretty deep down the rabbit hole. Imagine that on the Monday 6 weeks before the election Trump announces a cure, then on Friday the claim is widely accepted as false. On the very next Monday, Trump could announce a cure and be widely believed. And even if that claim could be shown to be false by the end of the week, on the following Monday, he could announce a cure and be widely believed.

Think about Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown. Is there any evidence that the electorate in 2020 is smarter than Charlie Brown?

MORE ETA
To use a different metaphor, how many times can the boy cry wolf before the townspeople realize that he is lying?
What if there is no threshold and the boy can cry wolf forever and be believed every time?
 
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Trump Retweeted

Tom Fitton
@TomFitton
This time, the Left wants to blow up the election -- they have set up the system to break by sending tens of millions of ballots and ballot applications into the mails. I don't who will actually win, but I fear the "vote" won't matter to the Left

Dan Bongino
@dbongino
The Yates hearing on Capitol Hill was another disaster for the police-state Democrats. It reinforced two critical things about them:
1) They worship abuses of power and political spying & have no intentions of giving either up
2) They genuinely despise this country & our rules.

Undercover Huber
@JohnWHuber
Yates clearly going for an insanity defense

Paul Sperry
@paulsperry_
How has President Trump not gone completely off the rails & ballistic by now? Everyone in Washington is against the man. Every waking hour he is taking flak & enemy fire, from all sides. Yet he hangs in there. Maintains composure. Trump must have nerves of steel. How's he do it?

BREAKING: Sally Yates testified Comey went "rogue" regarding his persecution of Flynn
 
Trump Tweets

Two wonderful people!
Quote Tweet

Diamond and Silk®
@DiamondandSilk
@realDonaldTrump, we want to say Thank you for being the best President ever. Thank you for being our voice and Thank you for paving the way for all Americans to have an opportunity at obtaining the American Dream. We Love you so much more. God Bless You.
 
Trump Retweeted

Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
It's clear that @JoeBiden's Democrat Party is the Party of shuttered churches and broken communities.
@realDonaldTrump will ALWAYS defend the FREE EXERCISE of faith.
If casinos are allowed to open at 50% capacity, churches can too.
RT if you agree!!!

Mike Pence
@Mike_Pence
Where four previous Presidents made promises to the American people about our most cherished ally.
It was President @realDonaldTrump who kept his promise when he moved the American Embassy to Jerusalem! #PromisesMadePromisesKept

The White House
@WhiteHouse
If Democrats will not make a deal, President @realDonaldTrump will pursue executive action in order to extend economic relief for the American people.
 
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Trump Tweets

Sally Yates is either lying or grossly incompetent. It is not possible she could have known so little about Dirty Cop James Comey (and others) from her high position in the Department of “Justice”. The political Crime of the Century, and she had no idea what they were doing?
 
Aridas said:
To poke in the direction of some of the usual line of developments in WTF is wrong with the Trump Administration -

'Nobody can find them': Trump administration has been expelling migrant kids without a trace, advocates say



This is horrifying - and those involved in creating the policy deserve serious punishment. Those carrying it out are a tougher call, but this is wrong on so many levels. It can pretty literally be said that the US government is making thousands of kids just vanish, now, after being handled by a group of people with huge numbers of abuses and illegal actions reported.
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The problem is that one of Trump’s main campaigning points is that migrants are undesirable. Plenty of his supporters will approve of making them vanish. It could even improve his approval rating.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Why is Israel America's 'most cherished ally'?
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For a variety of reasons.

There are a number of fundamentalist Christians who believe that Israel is a sign of end times and supporting Israel is a means of bringing about the rapture.

Courting the Jewish community in some states is a means to improve one's chances of election in those states. Support for Israel is seen as a way to achieve that (in the same way that opposition to Cuba is seen as a surefire way to securing a section of the Hispanic vote).

Israel has been the US' most loyal ally in the Middle East over the decades.

Liberals have a complicated relationship with Israel. Unconditional support for Israel, regardless of their actions is a good way of triggering the Liberals and to cause some potentially unpopular and/or divisive views to be dragged out into the open.

President Trump only deals in superlatives. Unless they were the US' most cherished ally, they'd be the US' most implacable enemy.
 
Ladewig said:
To use a different metaphor, how many times can the boy cry wolf before the townspeople realize that he is lying?
What if there is no threshold and the boy can cry wolf forever and be believed every time?
Click to expand...

40% will always believe the boy, no matter how many times he cries wolf.

40% have stopped listening to the boy, realising that there'll never be a wolf.

The middle 20% are much more difficult to read, especially the 5% (or more accurately 25% of the 20%) which may be sufficient to swing the election President Trump's way.
 
Facebook have removed one of the Trump campaign's ads for erroneously claiming that children can't spread coronavirus to adults, and twitter have suspended their account until they remove the tweet that contains the same video.
 
Aridas said:
To poke in the direction of some of the usual line of developments in WTF is wrong with the Trump Administration -

'Nobody can find them': Trump administration has been expelling migrant kids without a trace, advocates say

This is horrifying - and those involved in creating the policy deserve serious punishment. Those carrying it out are a tougher call, but this is wrong on so many levels. It can pretty literally be said that the US government is making thousands of kids just vanish, now, after being handled by a group of people with huge numbers of abuses and illegal actions reported.
Click to expand...
It's not a tougher call. Precedent for how to handle "just following orders" was established at Nuremberg.
 
Trump Tweets

How can voters be sending in Ballots starting, in some cases, one month before the First Presidential Debate. Move the First Debate up. A debate, to me, is a Public Service. Joe Biden and I owe it to the American People!
 
Trump Tweets

How can voters be sending in Ballots starting, in some cases, one month before the First Presidential Debate. Move the First Debate up. A debate, to me, is a Public Service. Joe Biden and I owe it to the American People!
Click to expand...

Because this is America and the parties have both been campaigning nonstop since the last election. Our campaign season literally never really ends, it just ebbs and flows a little.

In sane countries where you don't hear about elections until a month or so out a complaint about people voting way early might have some validity, but nobody is really expecting any Truth Bombs to be dropped at debate.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Trump Tweets

How can voters be sending in Ballots starting, in some cases, one month before the First Presidential Debate. Move the First Debate up. A debate, to me, is a Public Service. Joe Biden and I owe it to the American People!
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure that President Trump and his immediate family aren't waiting for the debates to make up their mind which candidate to vote for.
 
JoeMorgue said:
Because this is America and the parties have both been campaigning nonstop since the last election. Our campaign season literally never really ends, it just ebbs and flows a little.

In sane countries where you don't hear about elections until a month or so out a complaint about people voting way early might have some validity, but nobody is really expecting any Truth Bombs to be dropped at debate.
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But one of them might make a fatal mistake* or do something totally outrageous that rules them out completely**.


*For Biden: Get the 101 digit of PI wrong
*For Trump: ......

**For Biden: Wear a tan suit
**For Trump: ....
 
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