Who will Biden choose as running mate?

[Orphia Nay]

I think he'll choose Elizabeth Warren. She seems pretty popular with Democrats, though so is Kamala Harris. But he's pretty conservative so he'll choose someone white.

I really like Warren, I voted for her in the primary. But I don't think he should pick her, I think he should pick someone younger (if Warren had won the nomination, then I think she should have also picked a younger running mate). Partly to reach out to younger voters, and also as a backup plan in for COVID-19 - if older people are at higher risk, then I would prefer Biden's choice be someone from a lower-risk group.

If he picks Duckworth, it will be Birtherism 2.0 because she was born in Thailand and her mother is Thai. Her father is American, he was stationed in Thailand in the military and his American ancestry dates back to the Revolutionary war. But my social media feed is full of claims that's Duckworth is ineligible because (they claim) she's not an American-born citizen. (They are wrong, of course.)

At this point though, I think birtherism 2.0 would hurt the Republicans much more than previously. At good part of the GOP would like to pretend birtherism never happened, it now embarrasses the more moderate voters and complicates outreach to minority voters. Strategically, it could be a good old-fashioned "wedge issue" to divide the more moderates (now embarrassed by birtherism) from the more rabid conspiracy-driven wing of the party.

(more or less off topic, I learned from these "debates" that John McCain was not born on U.S. soil either. His father was stationed in the Panama Canal Zone, which was U.S. soil at the time. But the birth itself happened in a hospital outside the canal zone, not on U.S. soil. If Duckworth isn't eligible, McCain wasn't either).

These polls seem more about people voting for:

who they would like to be the running mate;

who they fear will be the running mate;

who they think would be the right running mate to win.

Not all the same thing.


I voted Warren as I think that's who I think Biden will pick.

I would like Kamala Harris to be the running mate.

I fear he will choose someone less popular than Warren or Harris.

I think the right running mate to win will be Warren.


The Bernie thing shows that many Millennials are happy with the idea of old people running things.

You do know that Warren is considered more "progressive" of the two.

I really don't think it will be Warren.

Of course I know Warren is "progressive". Certainly more progressive than Biden.

Don't you know Biden is conservative so is more likely not to choose Kamala Harris (who has the most votes in this poll)?

Let's face it, BLM shows there is a race problem in the USA. I don't think Biden is quite up to speed on things, though I could be wrong. This is an opinion poll, after all.

I'll be happy if I'm wrong and Biden chooses Harris.

I would like America to be the place where Biden/Harris win.

 

[Distracted1]

These polls seem more about people voting for:

who they would like to be the running mate;

who they fear will be the running mate;

who they think would be the right running mate to win.

Not all the same thing.


I voted Warren as I think that's who I think Biden will pick. I would like Kamala Harris to be the running mate. I fear he will choose someone less popular than Warren or Harris. I think the right running mate to win will be Warren.

The Bernie thing shows that many Millennials are happy with the idea of old people running things.




Of course I know Warren is "progressive". Certainly more progressive than Biden.

Don't you know Biden is conservative so is more likely not to choose Kamala Harris (who has the most votes in this poll)?

Let's face it, BLM shows there is a race problem in the USA. I don't think Biden is quite up to speed on things, though I could be wrong. This is an opinion poll, after all.

I'll be happy if I'm wrong and Biden chooses Harris.

I would like America to be the place where Biden/Harris win.

I selected Harris in the poll, but would prefer Warren.
About everything else, I agree.

 

[casebro]

Running mates are chosen for bring able to bring in swing voters. Nobody from California can do that, they already have California. What were the ummm, 5-6 swing states last time, and who is from them? Ohio, Fla,...

 

[Regnad Kcin]

Warren is, hands down, the most capable “President in Waiting” of the group, in the event of emergency. Both in intellect and comportment, she would transition to the office with a minimum of difficulty.

Biden will not pick Warren.

 

[Belz...]

Warren is, hands down, the most capable “President in Waiting” of the group should an emergency arise. Both in intellect and comportment, she would transition to the office with a minimum of difficulty.

Biden will not pick Warren.

 

[Craig4]

I'm betting on Harris. Before George Floyd, I'd have said she would get AG. She's a woman of color, younger which is important for Biden at his age and not in the defund the police camp. The "She's too ambitious" concern won't matter. It's the vice presidency, the unambitious need not apply.

 

[Ziggurat]

Biden Says He Can't Wait To Find Out Who He Picked For VP

 

[JoeMorgue]

Biden Says He Can't Wait To Find Out Who He Picked For VP

I'm sure he'll be as happy as the day Putin told Trump who he had picked to be his VP.

 

[crescent]

Running mates are chosen for bring able to bring in swing voters. Nobody from California can do that, they already have California. What were the ummm, 5-6 swing states last time, and who is from them? Ohio, Fla,...

Like that time Bush picked Cheney. I mean, without Wyoming's three EC votes, Bush would have been toast. And who would'a thought that Wyoming would vote Republican?

Or McCain's choice of Palin, for all of Alaska's EC votes.

My point is that you are half right - they pick the VP candidate to get swing votes - but those candidates picked to get the swing votes don't need to be coming from the actual swing states. Harris, for example could counter the GOP narrative that the Dems are anti-cop, that narrative is not limited to California. Duckworth could counter the narrative that the Dems and anti-military, and that could have an impact well beyond Hawaii.

 

[theprestige]

Like that time Bush picked Cheney. I mean, without Wyoming's three EC votes, Bush would have been toast. And who would'a thought that Wyoming would vote Republican?

Or McCain's choice of Palin, for all of Alaska's EC votes.

My point is that you are half right - they pick the VP candidate to get swing votes - but those candidates picked to get the swing votes don't need to be coming from the actual swing states. Harris, for example could counter the GOP narrative that the Dems are anti-cop, that narrative is not limited to California. Duckworth could counter the narrative that the Dems and anti-military, and that could have an impact well beyond Hawaii.

Six months ago, a Harris pick might have tipped the balance among voters who weren't sure just how anti-cop the Dems are, or if the Dems are maybe just a little too anti-cop. But now? With Dems supporting anti-cop riots, and proposals to defund the police in several Dem strongholds? I doubt a Harris pick is going to move the needle at all for those voters. They have larger concerns right now.

As for Duckworth? It depends if she herself is seen as being anti-military. Having had a military career is worth a lot to the pro-military folks. But a former soldier who turns against the services loses all that credit. Plus, I doubt there's many pro-military voters who are on the fence in the first place.

 

[Ziggurat]

I'm sure he'll be as happy as the day Putin told Trump who he had picked to be his VP.

The world inside your head must be a distressing place to live.

 

[Belz...]

With Dems supporting anti-cop riots

Nice spin.

 

[crescent]

Six months ago, a Harris pick might have tipped the balance among voters who weren't sure just how anti-cop the Dems are, or if the Dems are maybe just a little too anti-cop. But now? With Dems supporting anti-cop riots, and proposals to defund the police in several Dem strongholds? I doubt a Harris pick is going to move the needle at all for those voters. They have larger concerns right now.

The thing is, the demonstrations have not been universally popular among Dems, and the Defund the Police movement is still in its infancy and still lacks a universal formula for how to get there. Putting a Dem with and LE background on the ticket could help counter some of that. Give Dems leverage to appear to counter the worst ideas regarding changes in Law Enforcement in America, without coming out in support of the old status quo.

As for Duckworth? It depends if she herself is seen as being anti-military. Having had a military career is worth a lot to the pro-military folks. But a former soldier who turns against the services loses all that credit. Plus, I doubt there's many pro-military voters who are on the fence in the first place.

The risk the GOP faces with Duckworth as that many far-right people will go too far in going after Duckworth - some of those who "turn against the services" may end up being those who go off the deep end in targeting Duckworth. Swift Boating worked once, but it could backfire if the Dems are prepared when it happens again. If she gets nommed, Conspiracy Theorists will absolutely spin up to speed making up stories about her, about her service, about how she was injured (along with reviving the birtherism I previously mentioned). The mass conspiracy movement seems to have gone past the point where it benefits the Republican Party, now it is becoming an embarrassment. But the Republicans can't stop that now, it has become an integral part of how the party operates. If the Dems can be ready to counter the CTs, then the CT's can hurt the Republicans much more than they hurt the Dems.

 

[acbytesla]

Running mates are chosen for bring able to bring in swing voters. Nobody from California can do that, they already have California. What were the ummm, 5-6 swing states last time, and who is from them? Ohio, Fla,...

That's what some people think. But mostly, history doesn't really back that up. Gore didn't help Clinton in Tennessee. Bush Sr.would have won Indiana without Quayle. Same goes for Trump and Pence and Bush Jr would have won Wyoming without Cheney. The last VP candidate that absolutely made a difference in the Presidential election is probably LBJ.

 

[Mike!]

Duckworth is a bad idea, if push comes to shove, she hasn't got a leg to stand on.



(Insert pic of her walking on prosthetic legs here)

 

[Brainster]

Hard to say. But LBJ in 1960 for sure. Kennedy doesn't win without him.

I analyzed it a number of years back and found that VPs tended to improve the ticket's net percentage of the vote in the VP's home state by about 2.75 percentage points.

I analyzed the elections from 1964-2004. I excluded any VPs running for reelection since those tend to be referendums on the sitting President. There were 16 VP candidates who qualified. Of those, 12 appear to have helped their presidential candidate and 4 did not.

I'll illustrate with John Edwards, John Kerry's running mate in 2004. Edwards was from North Carolina, which Bush took by 12.44 percentage points in 2004. By contrast, Bush won North Carolina by 12.83 percentage points in 2000, so Edwards improved things by about 0.39 percentage points.

But that's not the whole story. Remember, Bush actually lost the popular vote nationally by 0.51 percentage points in 2000, and won by 2.46 percentage points in 2004, so there was a national trend for Bush to pick up 2.97 percentage points. Thus, the indicated improvement for the Democrats in North Carolina from having Edwards on the ticket appears to be about 3.36 percentage points.

 

[Dr. Keith]

That's what some people think. But mostly, history doesn't really back that up. Gore didn't help Clinton in Tennessee. Bush Sr.would have won Indiana without Quayle. Same goes for Trump and Pence and Bush Jr would have won Wyoming without Cheney. The last VP candidate that absolutely made a difference in the Presidential election is probably LBJ.

And I don't see picking Wendy Davis as a viable means to win Texas. In fact, I can't think of any female Texan that would increase his odds of winning Texas. He is either going to win it or lose it based on how embarrassed Texans are of Trump.

 

[crescent]

Duckworth is a bad idea, if push comes to shove, she hasn't got a leg to stand on.



(Insert pic of her walking on prosthetic legs here)

I had an idea about a joke about Sarah Palin and Tammy Duckworth both being chosen based on their legs. Duckworth arguably has the better pair, all shiny chrome and plastic.

 

[Trebuchet]

Duckworth is a bad idea, if push comes to shove, she hasn't got a leg to stand on.



(Insert pic of her walking on prosthetic legs here)

I almost nommed, but you went and explained the joke. You didn't need to do that, it could stand on its own.

 

[Mike!]

I almost nommed, but you went and explained the joke. You didn't need to do that, it could stand on its own.

It was a preemptive strike on my part, not everyone here has a great sense of humor when it comes to that sort of thing.