Cont: The all-new "US Politics and coronavirus" thread pt. 2

[Modified]

But trump must know what the difference is. Why is he ignoring it? What's the real plan here. Just getting himself reelected? That's it, nothing else?

It makes no sense. For schools that reopen, it's almost certain there will be multiple news stories where a majority of teachers and administrators in a school get the virus. Odds of this helping him are tiny and the results would be minor, odds of it hurting are high, and the results could be significant. Seems like a terrible bet.

 

[newyorkguy]

It makes no sense but that is exactly what trump has done his entire career. Make self-serving, self-indulgent decisions that turn out to be disastrous. He has this whole history of failure behind him. Of always picking the wrong strategy. Especially those of us in New York, who've had a ringside seat to his career, absolutely dreaded trump becoming president. Fearing trump doing to the U.S. what he did to his casinos, or the airline or the football league.

Only now it's happening. He helped lead the way to a resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic in the U.S. by pushing for states to reopen as early as possible. Now those states have led the way as the U.S. takes the lead with the most cases of any nation. It seems now trump is poised to create a Fall school crisis as the virus spreads even faster with who knows how many hundreds of thousands of school kids sickened. Neatly coinciding with the seasonal flu thereby creating a huge problem for the U.S. healthcare system.

It truly is a nightmare unfolding before our very eyes.

 

[carlitos]

Georgia continues to cook the books with their virus reporting.

Some people have mentioned not being able to view Tweets here, so here's a screen capture.

[qimg]https://i.imgur.com/hvrROMf.jpg[/qimg]

Thank you very much for the screen cap.

Not that anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt in Georgia, but a lot of automated software for graphic or visualization sets a scale with parameters around what constitutes a red zone or green zone depending on the data. It certainly might not be that someone actually manipulated. It seems more likely to me that the software does it based on the variance up or down.

In other words, if the state has more cases across all of the counties, but certain counties are still more than the other ones in proportion, The color scheme would look essentially the same from period to period, even though all of the numbers are higher. That’s just the nature of this kind of data visualization. In other words, it’s not the right tool for you to look at Absolute number case increases.

My opinion only - note that if I were sharing this data set, I would have explained that to whoever was viewing it or put some kind of disclaimer or whatever.

ETA - tl;dr : this is the map for comparing which counties are “hot” or “cool” vs the rest of the state. Not the map for showing # of cases going up or down.

 

[Aridas]

It makes no sense. For schools that reopen, it's almost certain there will be multiple news stories where a majority of teachers and administrators in a school get the virus. Odds of this helping him are tiny and the results would be minor, odds of it hurting are high, and the results could be significant. Seems like a terrible bet.

And on social media spread, just a few kids getting brain damaged by COVID because of school spread would blow up like crazy.

With that said, it makes sense just fine in the Trump context. He's not looking at the larger picture, as usual. He pretty much never looks at the larger picture when it comes to things like this, as he's especially proven throughout the COVID saga. He's focusing on trying to keep the US looking like it's okay and normal while not actually dealing with the reasons for why it's not, beyond a few Hail Mary moves. He's about appearances of things going well, not substance.

ETA - tl;dr : this is the map for comparing which counties are “hot” or “cool” vs the rest of the state. Not the map for showing # of cases going up or down.

A good point, but this does need restated -

Not that anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt in Georgia,

Kemp and the Republicans, at least. Literally putting day new case counts out of order to try to make things look rosier for example, among everything else, is grounds to offer them no more benefit of the doubt.

 

[Meadmaker]

It's almost terrifying that trump is this stupid.


But trump must know what the difference is. Why is he ignoring it? What's the real plan here. Just getting himself reelected? That's it, nothing else?

There is no plan, and yes, it is terrifying that Trump is that stupid.

Trump doesn't actually plan. He wishes. He proclaims. He says things that he wants to be true, and declares that they are true.

I wonder how he actually ended up getting golf courses and skyscrapers built. It's possible to do that, I suppose, with pure wishful thinking and a boatload of startup cash.

 

[Aridas]

There is no plan, and yes, it is terrifying that Trump is that stupid.

Trump doesn't actually plan. He wishes. He proclaims. He says things that he wants to be true, and declares that they are true.

I wonder how he actually ended up getting golf courses and skyscrapers built. It's possible to do that, I suppose, with pure wishful thinking and a boatload of startup cash.

Conning, delegation, and stuff along the lines of "We have all the funding we need out of Russia."

 

[varwoche]

Thank you very much for the screen cap.

Not that anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt in Georgia, but a lot of automated software for graphic or visualization sets a scale with parameters around what constitutes a red zone or green zone depending on the data. It certainly might not be that someone actually manipulated. It seems more likely to me that the software does it based on the variance up or down.

In other words, if the state has more cases across all of the counties, but certain counties are still more than the other ones in proportion, The color scheme would look essentially the same from period to period, even though all of the numbers are higher. That’s just the nature of this kind of data visualization. In other words, it’s not the right tool for you to look at Absolute number case increases.

My opinion only - note that if I were sharing this data set, I would have explained that to whoever was viewing it or put some kind of disclaimer or whatever.

ETA - tl;dr : this is the map for comparing which counties are “hot” or “cool” vs the rest of the state. Not the map for showing # of cases going up or down.

Those are weird cutoffs. It's plausibly due to automation but I'm not convinced. We would need to analyze the underlying data to get a better sense.

Either way, the color choice is hugely misleading. Everything a nice cool shade of blue except for the little red spots.

 

[newyorkguy]

Donald J. Trump Tweets-
In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open! Fox News link

But trump must know what the difference is. Why is he ignoring it? What's the real plan here. Just getting himself reelected? That's it, nothing else?

I've suspected for a long time -- and I think at some future date (after trump is out of office) -- we'll find out what behind-the-scenes role corporate supporters played in trump's various responses to the pandemic.

I don't have a link but several months ago I read an interesting piece in The New Yorker magazine. It was written by a journalist who wrote a book about the entrepreneurs and private investment traders who were financing the new 'start-ups' and thereby becoming very wealthy. Most of them were pretty young -- in their thirties -- and very outgoing and gregarious. The writer remained friendly with some of them, Millennials who travel a lot and use social media to stay connected with one another. Apparently they considered the journalist to be a 'pretty cool dude' and they invited him to log on to their various social media accounts and stay in touch, which he did.

He wrote that, back in March they were almost uniformly aghast at the prospect of shutdowns and the effect it would have on business and the economy. He said they all argued. 'Let the virus take its course. So we're all sick for a few weeks and then it's over. Shutting down the economy is crazy.'

Of course, none of them were saying this publicly. They're very smart guys (they were all men) and they knew it wouldn't play well with the general public. But you wonder, behind-the-scenes, how much pressure has been exerted on trump and some of these Republican governors, to end the lockdowns and get things going economically. trump and the Republican party get a lot of PAC money and campaign contributions from corporate donors. The one group even donald trump won't openly defy.

This is from a website named Forward Kentucky.

Ed Kilgore of New York magazine connected the dots among the protests in Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio. While the protests (all on the same day) originally seemed spontaneous, they weren’t, of course — any more than the Tea Party protests were spontaneous. That uprising was underwritten by the Kochs and other ultra-conservative families in the 0.1% who yearned for an America that looks less like the America of the 1950s and more like the Brazil of 1890s. Jane Mayer of The New Yorker even wrote an award-winning book about it. Forward Kentucky link

Remember how trump immediately tweeted support for the protests and attacked Michigan's governor because she wouldn't knuckle under?

Donald J. Trump tweets-
Apr 17 LIBERATE MICHIGAN! Twitter link

 

[carlitos]

You may be right on this. Given that context, the big chains moving to mask requirements for their customers, even in states that don't have mandates, are acting logically in their self-interest. Keeping the economy open is their goal; not symbolism or culture wars about masks.

If anyone hasn't yet read Jane Mayer's Dark Money, pick up a copy between now and November.

 

[Armitage72]

Those are weird cutoffs. It's plausibly due to automation but I'm not convinced. We would need to analyze the underlying data to get a better sense.

Either way, the color choice is hugely misleading. Everything a nice cool shade of blue except for the little red spots.

Someone on another forum noted that the proportions for each category changed too. The blue sections got larger while the red section got smaller.

"The lower (blue) ranges got proportionally larger in the second chart (the lowest tier is the left hand chart only 14% of the total, but in the right hand chart is 18% of the total, the second tier accounts for 10% of the total on the left, and 12% on the right, etc.). That has the result of reducing the portion of the results values that show up in red."

 

[newyorkguy]

Funny carlitos mentioned face masks. In the magazine article I mentioned reading, the writer often 'chatted' with some of the young private investment traders he'd met (often via a private email network they had set up). Back in March when the Covid-19 pandemic was picking up steam, one of the traders, a guy that the writer had become especially friendly with, mentioned having started to follow news of the epidemic in China back in December when word began to come out. The trader said he had often invested in medical businesses, had made a lot of money that way and had become 'very tuned in' to various economic opportunities. The writer's reaction was like, "Oh don't tell me."

Yes in late December, early January, the investor got a 'hunch' this virus was going to spread and become a big problem. What did he do? He began looking at companies that manufactured PPE, companies with an international sales presence. He quickly found one he "liked a lot." He bought up a huge amount of their stock and by February that investment had already earned him several million dollars. The writer said, "Oh man, you make money from everything." He said the investor -- who I think is still in his 30s -- said something like, "Dude, come on. It's what I do. I've lost some serious money too. I'm not infallible."

 

[Minoosh]

Thank you very much for the screen cap.

Not that anyone deserves the benefit of the doubt in Georgia, but a lot of automated software for graphic or visualization sets a scale with parameters around what constitutes a red zone or green zone depending on the data. It certainly might not be that someone actually manipulated. It seems more likely to me that the software does it based on the variance up or down.

They've changed the threshold for how light blue, blue etc. are picked. First map, light blue is 1-620. Second map, light blue is 1-949. The red starts at 2961 in the first map, 3769 in the second. IOW the red "hot zone" is not comparable to the red in the first map. One of these maps on its own would show you the rankings among counties, but comparing the maps is highly misleading.

Counties that were red in the first map can fall out of red in the second map, even if they have increased transmission. If the parameters were kept the same there would be more red counties in the second map.

 

[Minoosh]

But trump must know what the difference is. Why is he ignoring it? What's the real plan here. Just getting himself reelected? That's it, nothing else?

I think you answered your own question there.

As far as I can tell, small children might be of negligible risk to contract OR spread Covid 19. It doesn't get much of a toe-hold in the "under 10" group. But it would be experimenting with our smallest children if we decided to open K-3 or K-5. Also they're less likely to adhere to PPE, distancing etc. In high school, presumably, the kids would be more able to comply, but with each passing year they become more likely to contract and spread the virus.

It's counterintuitive if you're used to kids getting and passing on the "crud" that afflicts schools so much during, say, flu season. But it's possible, in terms Covid 19, there is a protective bubble around small kids. Obviously it's not ironclad.

But even if it were, small people still need adult supervision and rather a lot of straight-up care, so staffing ratios are higher with littler kids. I'm exposed more to adults when working in a school, and those adults picking up their kids are out doing their jobs, and we personally hand the kids off to their rides at the end of the day. Setting a hard deadline for getting totally back to normal is not safe IMO as long as new cases are still rising, which is what Trump wants to do. But at least with this one disease, schools may not be quite the Petri dishes we envision with colds, flu, stomach viruses etc.

 

[newyorkguy]

First, I think trump is spinning the school issue, trying to frame it in a way that will appeal to his base. That Democrats want the schools to remain closed, while Republicans want them reopened. Only I don't find that to be true. I find almost everyone wants the schools to reopen -- with the exception of a few districts, and some big ones, that do seem to prefer virtual learning for the immediate future -- but the key is reopening safely. Even in places like Oklahoma the state school superintendent has criticized trump's attitude. State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister said trump threatening to penalize states that don’t “open” public schools for the fall semester “aren’t helpful.” Even Fox News has reported on the difficulties facing school districts.

"It’s expensive to reopen schools, to buy equipment, to pay for extra cleaning, you’re going to have to clean your schools a lot more, so I think people are aware of that now," said Phyllis Jordan, editorial director for Georgetown University-based think tank Future Ed, which has tracked education-funding relief in the time of COVID-19. Fox News link

trump never talks about any of that because I really don't think he cares very much about public school kids. This is a man who used to brag about avoiding having to take care of his own kids when they were young. He used to say that was his wife's job; his job was to supply "money." As he once said to Howard Stern during an interview, "Can you see me pushing a baby carriage down Fifth Avenue? I don't think so!"

Someone posted a quote -- somewhere in this thread -- about the business necessity to get the 'kids back in school.' That when kids stay home so does at least one parent. I think that's part of why trump has seemed to latch onto the 'reopen our schools!' meme. Because the corporate world wants it and trump's their boy. I think it all ties into the economy. I think we all know, when it comes to the economy, that's something trump really does care about. A lot!

 

[Resume]

Well, this development sucks.

More than 80 children under 2 years old, most of them younger than 1 year old, have tested positive for the coronavirus in one Texas county, a local public health official announced, as the United States set a single-day record in the tally of new cases.

The public health director in Nueces County on the Texas Gulf Coast said 85 children under 2 years old, including 52 younger than a year old, have tested positive for the virus.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Georgia continues to cook the books with their virus reporting.

Some people have mentioned not being able to view Tweets here, so here's a screen capture.

[qimg]https://i.imgur.com/hvrROMf.jpg[/qimg]

Took me half a minute. Clever. This is what we can expect Trump to do with the federal data.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It makes no sense. For schools that reopen, it's almost certain there will be multiple news stories where a majority of teachers and administrators in a school get the virus. Odds of this helping him are tiny and the results would be minor, odds of it hurting are high, and the results could be significant. Seems like a terrible bet.

Pretty sure he can't think that far into the future.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...

ETA - tl;dr : this is the map for comparing which counties are “hot” or “cool” vs the rest of the state. Not the map for showing # of cases going up or down.

Would that be in the fine print?

 

[Giordano]

Took me half a minute. Clever. This is what we can expect Trump to do with the federal data.

And it certainly seems deliberate. At first I wondered if they just chose the highest value for each date and binned everything below it into 6 equal groupings. But the binning is not equal and the cutoffs appear to be chosen to obscure the big rise in the number of cases.

 

[newyorkguy]

Yesterday the United States reported an all-time high for new cases with over 75,000. Almost 15,000 of those cases were in Texas. Below are some quotes from NBC affiliate KXAN-TV in Austin. The news story was filed last night and it is very grim:

On Friday, Texas reported a record 174 new coronavirus deaths. The state is now averaging over 100 COVID-19 deaths a day, and researchers warn those daily death numbers are expected to continue to climb...Dr. Spencer Fox, Associate Director of the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium [said] “It’s clear the pandemic has been surging in Texas for about the past four weeks, and we can see through looking at the hospitalization trends how they’ve increased over the past four weeks. We expect mortality, therefore, to follow that hospitalization, so we should expect mortality to continue to increase for at least four weeks.”

Local and state officials are preparing for a worst case scenario, trying to make sure there’s enough room to store bodies as death rates from COVID-19 continue to climb. The Texas Division of Emergency Management has 14 mortuary trucks coming from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. TDEM Spokesperson told KXAN the trucks will be sent to different areas of Texas and be ready, just in case a city or county needs to use it. KXAN link