PartSkeptic’s Thread for Predictions and Other Matters of Interest

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Okay. So you think that VGCC changes either do not exist, or are so low that something like a headache would not happen?

Do you not think that people paying out $250,000 would not do their homework?
If they do their homework they will soon discover that no one claiming to suffer from EMS has yet passed a test of the kind we are discussing.

There is a poster on this forum involved with the CIIG, I have asked him by PM if he thinks your claim would qualify. It hadn't occurred to me until Matthew Ellard brought it up, but I thought it was worth considering.
 
It is now very clear that the power measurement must be included. A meter that has a produces a log of the measurement is a plus.
As long as you understand that this,

The meter will measure the various aspects of the WiFi. I will record my symptoms and how I feel. Then look for correlation.
or anything like it, cannot form part of your test protocol.

What could form part of your test protocol is something like:

If the wifi signal never exceeds [specify level] during the duration of a trial, then that trial will be discarded.

Please tell me I don't need to explain why.
 
Choose one major world changing event in the next 10 years and make that your one key prediction. Let us see how well you do. I do not need to know the day and time.

OK.
I predict that there will be a major, world-changing event some time in the next ten years.
It will change things in the world in a major way.
It might take a bit more than ten years, if god changes his plan, but my prediction will still be accurate if I say it is.
The change might not be major, but it will still count as a valid prediction if I say it does.
I may only say exactly which event I predicted after the event has actually happened, but that will in no way invalidate my prediction, because I say so.
There. That's my prediction.
I am already savouring the sweet taste of validation. It is truly a fine thing to be god's chosen messenger.
 
Choose one major world changing event in the next 10 years and make that your one key prediction. Let us see how well you do. I do not need to know the day and time.
Wait. Time out. Whack-a-mole is fun at the the arcade, less so here.

The post you are challenging is in response to your 1992 writing that supposedly demonstrates prophetic ability, and you're evading the cultural learnings...

(1) The Rodney King riots occurred in 1992. Racial tension was topic #1 in the US.
(2) You claim to have predicted the defund-the-police movement, yet this isn't mentioned in your 1992 writing. You made up this false positive ex nihilo.

You should concede these points before issuing vacuous challenges.
 
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As long as you understand that this,


or anything like it, cannot form part of your test protocol.

What could form part of your test protocol is something like:

If the wifi signal never exceeds [specify level] during the duration of a trial, then that trial will be discarded.

Please tell me I don't need to explain why.


No need to explain. Except I will rephrase. If the WiFi power level falls below a certain level for more than 10 percent of the test, then that test is invalid. That is about 1500uW/sqm when measured where my head would be.

The maximum safe level given by ICNIRP is so high that I could probably swallow the modem and never exceed the levels, so there is no need to stipulate a maximum, The new meter does go right up to the level so I will stipulate that the maximum should not exceed 1/10th of the level (1,000mW/sqm).

The test is designed to as an on-off criteria. I say afterward (2 hours later) if the modem was on or if it was off. I am taking more measurements and observations than might be necessary because while there are indeed EHS people, no-one seems to have any idea as to levels, duration, frequencies or pulsations and how these compare to symptoms.

There is a long list of symptoms which not only varies from person to person but different symptoms at different times and different exposures. A headache seems to be the one most prevalent and the first one to happen.

Imagine trying to match Alzheimers to EMF exposure. It would require high exposures similar to what I had next to the mast. It would be difficult to measure.

I can tell you that I am showing severe signs of early-onset Alzheimers that have gotten quite bad in the last few weeks. At this rate, I do not expect to be functional this time next year. My spelling is atrocious and I need spell check all the time. I struggle even when I know the word is wrong. I type "that" when I mean "than" and "is" when I mean "it".

I cannot remember names of famous people or names of movies that would be easy for me last year. In the last week I sometimes think I am in one room when I am actually in another one. I got confused who my wife was for a short few seconds. That was disturbing.

It does not bother me. As a teenager I dreamed I would die because my brain rotted away after a tall (light) tower fell and hit me a glancing blow in my head. I only learned what Alzheimers was decades later.

Many countries today are showing signs of mental dysfunction, and if I am right it will get much worse. Of course if I am right about the pandemic then God is intervening to stop it getting out of hand.

On Monday I am going to the country hydro for 3 nights to get some relief. I have the home jacuzzi operating so that is helping.
 
If they do their homework they will soon discover that no one claiming to suffer from EMS has yet passed a test of the kind we are discussing.

There is a poster on this forum involved with the CIIG, I have asked him by PM if he thinks your claim would qualify. It hadn't occurred to me until Matthew Ellard brought it up, but I thought it was worth considering.


Okay. You have given me incentive to do the test.

I note that others I consider to be very sensitive would not agree to be tested, even though I said I would use only enough power for them to sense.

I do not like exposure because I figure it may trigger cancer but I am older and consider myself somewhat expendable. I will have a full set of blood tests and another brain MRI before I do these tests. I have to check how bad my Alzheimers is, but that is not easy to quantify. My logic seems to be okay.

You do know that insurance companies will not insure for harm caused by EMF exposure.

Do you think that the Telcos will sabotage the testing if they get wind of it? They should, of course, do the opposite and encourage it but I am certain they will not.
 
No, it is not obvious. That's why we asked.

The test protocol originally discussed was a simple blind test:

1. You are your wife are in separate rooms
2. She tosses a coin and either switches the wifi on or leaves it off, and records which in a sealed, numbered, envelope
3. You decide, based on your symptoms over the next (however long you wish) whether the wifi is on or off
4. You record which you think it is in a sealed, numbered, envelope

Repeat, say, ten times over however many days you need.

Open envelopes and see if you guessed correctly more often than would be expected by chance.

The measurement for output power can be done by my wife in another room. If low power she will cancel the test.

Now tell me at what point in that test protocol anyone takes a measurement, and what difference it makes to the result.



The test protocol this describes is not a blinded protocol. It is completely subjective, and the results will be worthless.


If you do a blinded test as originally discussed, you will use the results to determine whether it is worth doing a formal, witnessed test. If you have guessed correctly significantly more often than would be expected by chance (i.e. well over 50% of the time) it is, if not you'll know you've been barking up the wrong tree and need to look for some other cause of your symptoms.


Just re-read this. Valid points. But the better the tests are done, the better the outcome and the better my credibility.

My wife will take power measurements through-out in another room. If the power is low or drop low for more than a minute she cancels the test.
 
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I entirely agree with JayUtah's reasons for ignoring these questions but rain is preventing me going for my usual walk or bike ride, so just for a laugh:

I don't know how the universe began, but I see no good reason to think there was a prime cause. My feeling (and it is just a feeling, not a belief) is that the 'infinite multiverse of finite universes' hypothesis will turn out to be the correct one, removing any need for a prime cause.

(snip).

I am not impressed by JayUtahs refusal to answer direct questions. He does it a lot. I have my own opinion as to why he uses such a tactic of avoidance.

Laughs or not, you are at least genuine in engaging in a debate.

Our current universe has the law of cause and effect. It is a key principle of science. Everything obeys this law. It is accepted that the origin of the Universe may be the only exception. It is a cause without a cause and it is named the Prime Cause. Semantics does not change the acceptance of this principle by nearly all scientists.

You are not removing the need for a Prime Cause. You are stating the physical universe and the current set of laws of physics is it's own Prime Cause. It is an accepted hypothesis. Because one cannot know the truth, one has to compare different hypotheses and determine which one(s) is most plausible.

The turtle hypothesis is accepted as "laughable" and was indeed submitted for laughs.

So let us examine your hypothesis.

It is remarkably like the scientific explanation that replaced God before the Big Bang became accepted. Namely the Universe has no beginning and no end. Well, one strike for that theory. The Big Bang was a beginning and the Universe has a finite and known period of existence.

Let us assume that there are multiple universes (despite not a shred of evidence to support that) then you are saying that the laws of physics always existed. They cannot be different in different multiverses because then the mathematics which are the only "hint" of the possibility would break down. You cannot have your cake and eat it.

Then we have to ask why the laws of physics and the existence of energy and matter have a built-in predisposition to form galaxies, stars and planets that are able to give the correct proportions for life. When one examines the complexity of carbon and water and how life needs ALL these complexities, then hypothesizing different forms of life just does not hack it.

The big question is why, not just life, but intelligent life evolved? Why are the physical constants such critical values that any tiny change causes chaos and randomness. The Big Bang was chaos and randomness yet coalesced into remarkable order.

But here is my big point. The universe has demonstrated that the evolution of intelligence is inherent in the physical universe, and that there is no theoretical limit to the size and spread of that intelligence and order. Given that your hypothesis
(I had to spell this word five times before getting it right)
is that
(take out double "is that")
the universe is infinite then such a system would tend to being one gigantic intelligence. It just has to.

In other words, you have explained the Prime Cause for the Ultimate Intelligence I have hypothesized. Does it matter that currently all that exists is the Ultimate Intelligence from an infinite universe or that the Ultimate Intelligence is its own Prime Cause?

We are an illusion in that mind. It explains God and explains the supernatural.
 
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If they do their homework they will soon discover that no one claiming to suffer from EMS has yet passed a test of the kind we are discussing.

There is a poster on this forum involved with the CIIG, I have asked him by PM if he thinks your claim would qualify. It hadn't occurred to me until Matthew Ellard brought it up, but I thought it was worth considering.
I have had a response from the poster in question, saying an application covering similar ground was accepted so he thinks PartSkeptic's probably would be also.

He reminds me that CFIIG imposes strict conditions on a demonstration, as they are aware of the possibility of cheating and scamming.
 
Our current universe has the law of cause and effect. It is a key principle of science. Everything obeys this law.
That is not my understanding. The laws of quantum mechanics are entirely statistical in nature, on that scale events can occur without a specific cause. Radioactive decay, for example.

I'm afraid I can't make much sense of the rest of this post.
 
I am not impressed by JayUtahs refusal to answer direct questions. He does it a lot.

Yes, I do it every time you pose irrelevant questions as a way to distract from your inability to answer mine. There's even a name for this shady tactic: whataboutism. You seem to think no one can see you frantically trying to change the subject when cornered, or frantically trying to shove arguments into my mouth that I never made.

Case in point: you brought up the Lai memo again. I asked you to tell me, in your own words, what you think is meant by some of the language in it. You obviously don't know the answer. So you responded instead by asking me unrelated questions about the origins of the universe, for no reason other than to pretend I'm now the one who's on the hook for something, and that you're now absolved from revealing your ignorance.

You need to realize that you're not fooling anyone when you do this.

I have my own opinion as to why he uses such a tactic of avoidance.

I'm sure you do, and I'm sure the reason you imagine paints me in unfavorable colors. Much of your argumentation stems from the habit of imagining something and then carrying on as if the thing you imagined was incontrovertibly true.

The real reason, of course, is that you are not very skilled at hiding your clumsy rhetorical stunts. As a result, I'm not falling for them. You're mad not because you're being treated shabbily, but because your critics are too sharp to let you get away with sketchy tactics that may have worked for you elsewhere but clearly aren't working here.

Laughs or not, you are at least genuine in engaging in a debate.

Whereas you are not. Like so many other things you pretend to do well, you're actually considerably unskilled when it comes to debating a subject in public.

There's the basic issue that you don't know what you're talking about much of the time. So even if the discussion isn't adversarial, you're not prepared enough to have it.

But more to the point, you seem to think you can perform sophomoric debate antics without getting caught. Sure, the classic pivot is a way to steer clear of uncomfortable topics. There are ways to do it well, such that it can't be seen for what it is. But you are so very bad at it. And when you're that bad, hammering the impression that was supposed to be created by a successful pivot just makes people laugh harder.

Commensurately, your incessant straw-manning doesn't help you either. Again, this too can be an effective rhetorical strategy if executed with skill and subtlety. The way you do it is as subtle as a freight train. And when it doesn't work, instead of abandoning the tactic, you just press harder. You become even more obviously desperate to have others adopt the positions you're trying to dictate for them.

Then there are the straight-up insults. It's not really possible, even among skilled debaters, to coat blatant insults with enough sugar to keep them from backfiring. Sure, you can draw an opponent out into a situation where he makes himself look foolish. But you just charge right in.

Complaining that other people are disingenuous for not playing along with your sorry performance doesn't really fly. That only works when it isn't painfully obvious you aren't debating in good faith. I've given you many serious posts, some of them spoon-feeding you the difficult mathematics you would need to do in order to test your claim. You didn't bother to read any of it. Instead you claimed that dealing with my genuine attempts to help you was too laborious. And lately your engagement has devolved to inventing new daily reasons why you are exempt from engaging your critics.
 
That is not my understanding. The laws of quantum mechanics are entirely statistical in nature, on that scale events can occur without a specific cause. Radioactive decay, for example.

Correct.

I'm afraid I can't make much sense of the rest of this post.

If it were slightly more coherent it might be mistaken for an unholy union between modern cosmology and pseudo-Aristotelianism, but it's mostly just speculative gibberish.
 
Just re-read this. Valid points. But the better the tests are done, the better the outcome and the better my credibility.

Better does not mean more complicated. In fact, as far as real science goes, where the results matter, better tests tend to be the simplest tests. This is where better is defined as producing more reliable results.

My wife will take power measurements through-out in another room. If the power is low or drop low for more than a minute she cancels the test.

You've complicated the protocol by now requiring that we quantify what is meant by "low." And in order for the test to be reliable, that quantification will need to have a quantitative rationale built behind it. 3 meters of water depth is not considered low when learning to swim. It is considered low when trying to float a ship. So you need to tell us what you mean by "low," and that has to be backed up by an argument that rises above "because I say that's what 'low' means."

Further, you're converting continuous data into binary data. This has statistical implications in evaluating the confidence of your final result. Why are you performing such a conversion? Why can you not simply correlate the measured power level with the degree of pain you feel?
 
Why are people pushing for a "simple" test that proves very little?

It would have accurately tested the hypothesis you originally posed. The problem is that you proposed additional elements to the protocol without conceding that your first hypothesis was falsified by the premise of the new propositions. That's moving the goalposts.
 
So when an "expert" says that IN HIS OPINION, he does not know what is causing an effect it is no fallacy because it is backed by expertise in the field.

That's not the judgment that the expert renders. The expert opines that some proffered cause is not responsible for the effect, because he knows the operation of causes and effects in the field that pertains to the proffered cause. That includes knowledge of how they may operate, but it also includes knowledge of how they cannot operate.

Saying he does not have an alternative hypothesis of causation is a red herring. Your claims revolve around specific purported hypotheses of causation that are well within the ken of existing experts. The questions like, "Well what was causing the negative effects in those other studies?" can be answered in myriad ways. Suggesting that it likely alludes to some hitherto unknown, and profoundly revolutionary, effect is silly when attempts to reproduce the purported correlation disappear entirely under different protocols. That's all the proof a reasonable person needs that the effect is related to the protocol, not to some as-yet undiscovered hypothetical physical phenomenon. You're asking the world to strain parsimony to the breaking point.

And this is then extended to say that because AN EXPERT does not know the cause then I cannot be right in proposing a cause?

An expert is qualified to preclude specific proposed causes that are well within his ken and which can say, with knowledge, cannot arise according to the mechanism proposed. That he can't give you the ultimate answer takes nothing away from that. He doesn't have to know everything in order to have the legitimate authority to say you're specifically wrong.

Everyone can see what you're trying to do here. There is no way your ignorance can be made to seem as valuable as others' expertise. In the broader sense you're following the path many fringe claimants take. You start out by claiming expertise. And then when that fails -- as it inevitably does -- you pivot to the claim that expertise itself really isn't that valuable. If you continue along the path, next you'll be claiming that your imagination and intuitive understanding are more valuable than expert knowledge when it comes to these sorts of questions.

You've failed to establish yourself as the expert you claimed to be. You're now failing at claiming others can't know enough to refute you. This path has never led to anyone proving his case.

There are a number of other ailments that have been attributed to "psychological problems" that eventually proved to have a testable physical cause.

And that sort of attribution is defensible, because the psychosomatic phenomenon is real. It may not be known as the cause of some particular set of observations, but it's one of several reasonable presumptions to hold until dispositive evidence is made available. That's entirely different than holding a presumption for which no conceivable mechanism of effect arises.

And in the larger scope, your critics are well acquainted with the obvious inadequacy of the "They laughed at..." rejoinder, even if you are not.

Why is this forum SO SURE that my proposal has absolutely no merit?

Straw man.

Your critics are pointing out that the degree to which you believe your proposal is true is not backed up by objectively evaluated evidence. Just because they don't agree with your reasons for believing in it so very strongly doesn't meant they must have very strong reasons of their own toward some other end. Your critics are not the irrational dolts you keep trying to suggest they are.

In contrast, you propose an ever-expanding web of conspiracy theories -- grown now to include your critics here -- in order to explain why the facts come out one way, but your proposal remains true. And you reason circularly that the proof of your conspiracy theories lies in the way the facts emerged.

You seem utterly refractive to the notion that you simply might be wrong, and surprisingly uninterested in testing whether your ideas have the merit you attribute to them. This suggests you hold your belief for emotional reasons, not on merit.
 
Just re-read this. Valid points. But the better the tests are done, the better the outcome and the better my credibility.

My wife will take power measurements through-out in another room. If the power is low or drop low for more than a minute she cancels the test.
Can you please not quote posts then change them without showing your changes, if that's what has happened, it can become confusing.

Equally, can people not edit their posts to remove things without showing their changes, if that's what has happened, also becomes confusing.

My original test made the assumption that the modem broadcast at the same power each time. This assumption was based on the fact that the computer modem WiFi can have the power output changed to broadcast at a percentage less that 100%. Why did none of the experts on this forum warn that the power could (at times) be very low?

God had to help me make the discovery myself.

It is now very clear that the power measurement must be included. A meter that has a produces a log of the measurement is a plus.

There is no guessing. It is a matter of how severe the headache is.
Your claim was that you could tell whether the wifi was off or on in 15 minutes because of your headache.

Regarding your bold question, your claim did not involve that so why make it relevant now?
The assumption was yours, why didn't your God tell you that.
Or your headache?

Surely you would have noticed the wifi being on previously, with you sans headache?
 
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It is not paranormal at all. I doubt that they would take the challenge. If they do, it would be easy money.

I am stunned that you can conflate a science claim with a paranormal claim. Look at how sensitive some living creatures are to magnetic and electric fields. Sometimes a huge difference between calculated and observed.
Why? You have done nothing else but conflate the paranormal with science in all your time here. Why are you somehow astonished that it is possible to do so? After all, you do it.
 
My original test made the assumption that the modem broadcast at the same power each time. This assumption was based on the fact that the computer modem WiFi can have the power output changed to broadcast at a percentage less that 100%. Why did none of the experts on this forum warn that the power could (at times) be very low?
Because we assumed (wrongly as it turns out) that we all understood that it was a given.

We all understood that.

With one exception.

God had to help me make the discovery myself.
WTF? Care to demonstrate that? Of course not.

It is now very clear that the power measurement must be included. A meter that has a produces a log of the measurement is a plus.
No. You have been given a basic protocol to determine if an effect even exists and you want nothing to do with it. Pixel's proposed protocol is fine to determine if there is an effect at all worthy of further investigation. But you fight tooth and nail against it. Why?

There is no guessing. It is a matter of how severe the headache is.
That is guessing.
 
Okay. So you think that VGCC changes either do not exist, or are so low that something like a headache would not happen?

Do you not think that people paying out $250,000 would not do their homework?

Odd claim. I work around EMF all the time and my siblings so not. I do not suffer "headaches".

Of my siblings, one does suffer migraines, or did. Change of diet and it all went away. No 5G, 4G, 3G, 2G, 1G involved, just an undetected food allergy How do you account for that?
 
Okay. So you think that VGCC changes either do not exist, or are so low that something like a headache would not happen?

Do you not think that people paying out $250,000 would not do their homework?

And therein lies your problem. It matters not a whit that somethings happen. What is important is causality, not correlation.

And you have, so far, failed to demonstrate either

So kindly explain why it is that my eldest sister suffered persistant migrains whilae not working in the arena of EMF, and sorted it by diet, yet none of the rest of the family have the foggiest what you are on about. Think you can do that? I have my doubts.

And why did she get them? I am the one awash in a sea of EMF. Surely I should be the one to get it, no?

It turns out "No".

Please explain.
 
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