Cont: Trans Women are not Women 3

[tyr_13]

Suppose 100 patients decided to desist in transition during the observation year. What fraction of those came back to Tavistock to mention the fact? We only know of those that (1) did so and (2) used specific keywords.

ETA: Not to mention all those who chose to desist or detrans in the next 20 years.

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Sounds like those who claim detransition rates for the UK clinic system or overall are unacceptably high have some evidence to gather that this is the case then, don't they?

Maybe they're really good at helping couples understand when the relationship isn't working and they'll be happier if they part ways?

I don't just assume that every non-divorce is a good outcome and every divorce is a bad outcome.

Yeah, that sure is a way the analogy, that I didn't pick, doesn't align with the actual argument which was about preventing people who should not transition from transitioning. The pressures are opposite in that there are pressures to marry and there are pressures to NOT even come out as trans, let alone transition.

That still leaves us with the best evidence being that detransition isn't a huge problem and those claiming it is relying on old and absurd studies (I love the one which counted people who never even identified as trans as detransitioning) or on speculation.

 

[d4m10n]

Sounds like those who claim detransition rates for the UK clinic system or overall are unacceptably high have some evidence to gather that this is the case then, don't they?

As it says in the article I linked earlier, "...large cohort and longitudinal studies are lacking." This means we've basically no idea how high the rates are going to get, and how many people may end up opting for irreversible changes they later come to regret.

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[tyr_13]

As it says in the article I linked earlier, "...large cohort and longitudinal studies are lacking." This means we've basically no idea how high the rates are going to get, and how many people may end up opting for irreversible changes they later come to regret.

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What a strange way to conclude a lack of one specific type of evidence is support for speculation without evidence more than looking at proxy data and the information we do have that indicates low rates of detransitioning.

That still leaves the speculation of it being a meaningful problem without support.

 

[d4m10n]

What a strange way to conclude a lack of one specific type of evidence is support for speculation without evidence more than looking at proxy data and the information we do have that indicates low rates of detransitioning.

Low rates of detrasitioning during a twelve month period at a clinic that specializes in transitioning.

That is, unless you've some reason to believe they were doing follow-ups with patients who stopped coming back.

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[Elaedith]

What a strange way to conclude a lack of one specific type of evidence is support for speculation without evidence more than looking at proxy data and the information we do have that indicates low rates of detransitioning.

That still leaves the speculation of it being a meaningful problem without support.

It's not surprising that there is little information about detransitioning when any discussion of or research into research into detransitioning, that doesn't support genderist ideology is actively suppressed (along with anything else that doesn't support orthodox genderist ideology).

 

[tyr_13]

Low rates of detrasitioning during a twelve month period at a clinic that specializes in transitioning.

That is, unless you've some reason to believe they were doing follow-ups with patients who stopped coming back.

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So still no evidence of your speculation?

It's not surprising that there is little information about detransitioning when any discussion of or research into research into detransitioning, that doesn't support genderist ideology is actively suppressed (along with anything else that doesn't support orthodox genderist ideology).

Oh it certainly should be researched more and I wouldn't be surprised if some of it were not given priority because of the fact other related research is more important given that pilot studies don't show it being a meaningful issue and/or political concerns.

Taking the claims of just the researcher is unwise though. Bath says,

"His research proposal was not refused because of the subject matter, but rather because of his proposed methodological approach.

"The university was not satisfied this approach would guarantee the anonymity of his participants or the confidentiality of the data.

"Mr Caspian first took the matter to the High Court In May 2017, and the Court concluded then that Mr Caspian’s application for a judicial review was “totally without merit”.

"The outcome of the University’s review was also separately considered by the Office of the Independent Adjudicator for Higher Education. The OIA determined last October that the University’s conclusion in respect of Mr Caspian’s research was “reasonable."

And this still doesn't change that the evidence we do have is that detransition rates are rather low. Granting speculation that it will increase greatly the same weight as the evidence saying it isn't just isn't skeptical best practice. Saying, 'we need more research to be sure' is not the same as saying, 'well it could be anything despite the evidence we do have'.

Holding off on moving forward with transgender issues until something that's very hard to study given the very small numbers involved and would take at least a decade and the indicators we do have are that it isn't a great problem is not the least bit reasonable.

 

[d4m10n]

So still no evidence of your speculation?

Bit vague, eh? It is not speculation to say that some number of people will undergo treatments which they later come to regret. It is not speculation to say that your study poster paper failed to put anything other than a lower bound on how often that happens, since a true longitudinal study would require following up over a course of many years with a representative sample of GIDS patients instead of keyword searching from a self-selected convenience sample over twelve months.

 

[tyr_13]

Bit vague, eh? It is not speculation to say that some number of people will undergo treatments which they later come to regret. It is not speculation to say that your study poster paper failed to put anything other than a lower bound on how often that happens, since a true longitudinal study would require following up over a course of many years with a representative sample of GIDS patients instead of keyword searching from a self-selected convenience sample over twelve months.

Not vague, you claimed a 9.4% rate was possible based on a paper that wasn't even trying to look at detransition. Context is your friend.

Still no evidence of it, so it isn't supported.

 

[theprestige]

It's not surprising that there is little information about detransitioning when any discussion of or research into research into detransitioning, that doesn't support genderist ideology is actively suppressed (along with anything else that doesn't support orthodox genderist ideology).

I think I get what you're saying, but your terminology is intuitively confusing to me.

I'd read "orthodox genderist ideology" to mean "cisnormative binary gender ideology". But the linked article seems to be saying that it's "transnormative non-binary gender ideology" that is gatekeeping detransition research.

I.e., it's not the transphobes that are blocking research into detransitioning rates, it's the transphiles.

 

[d4m10n]

Not vague, you claimed a 9.4% rate was possible based on a paper that wasn't even trying to look at detransition.

The paper in question identified patients who would be likely to detransition, had they been given precisely the treatments they asked for at the outset.

 

[Roboramma]

Thought this might be worth posting here:

https://twitter.com/SwipeWright/status/1281793002986336256

1/ What is cancel culture? A few months ago I was a postdoc at Penn State with an soon-expiring contract, job hunting for tenure track professorships.

I posted the following tweet citing the well-known "social contagion" hypothesis forwarded by Dr Lisa Littman's work on ROGD.

2/ Some people thought this was cancel-worthy & attempted to spread word of my "vile transphobia" to my colleagues, even tagging diversity organizations in my field.

"Colin is on the job market. I hope the EEB community is paying attention."

The goal was to limit my employment.

Click the link to read the full thread.

 

[The Atheist]

Click the link to read the full thread.

Wow, that's breathtaking.

The irony of those actions would put out the sun.

Best reply:

I hate this world, no have words for this.

 

[Elaedith]

Oh it certainly should be researched more and I wouldn't be surprised if some of it were not given priority because of the fact other related research is more important given that pilot studies don't show it being a meaningful issue and/or political concerns.

Taking the claims of just the researcher is unwise though. Bath says,

"His research proposal was not refused because of the subject matter, but rather because of his proposed methodological approach.

"The university was not satisfied this approach would guarantee the anonymity of his participants or the confidentiality of the data.

Of course they said that. Do you think they are going to publicly state that fear of a social media backlash was the reason? The research was only vetoed when the preliminary data indicated that the number of transitioners was large than claimed.

"Mr Caspian first took the matter to the High Court In May 2017, and the Court concluded then that Mr Caspian’s application for a judicial review was “totally without merit”.

"The outcome of the University’s review was also separately considered by the Office of the Independent Adjudicator for Higher Education. The OIA determined last October that the University’s conclusion in respect of Mr Caspian’s research was “reasonable."

The decision is being appealed and if funding can be raised will go right through to the European Court of Human Rights if necessary. The last review was refused on procedural grounds, not on basic argument.

I know what is happening through first-hand experience. In more than 20 years teaching in universities, I have never seen anything like the current attempts to subvert research and teaching to conform to an ideological agenda, and to suppress academic analysis and debate by any means including smearing, ostracism, harassment, no-platforming, censorship and even threats of violence. I've never experienced a situation before when even those of us not directly involved have to set up closed mailing lists to discuss what is happening to others because people are too scared to discuss it openly.

Unless we can fight back against this (which at this point means fighting in courts) it's unlikely any research on transgender issues can be trusted, because no research or analysis that doesn't fit the ideological narrative is allowed.

 

[Elaedith]

I think I get what you're saying, but your terminology is intuitively confusing to me.

I'd read "orthodox genderist ideology" to mean "cisnormative binary gender ideology". But the linked article seems to be saying that it's "transnormative non-binary gender ideology" that is gatekeeping detransition research.

I.e., it's not the transphobes that are blocking research into detransitioning rates, it's the transphiles.

By genderist ideology I mean gender identity ideology or extreme transgenderist ideology. Sorry if that wasn't clear - I have seen that term used to describe it.

I mean the ideology that we all have some innate 'gender identity' that only we can know (although others can helpfully assist children by suggesting that a girl who likes trucks might really be a boy or a boy who likes dolls might really be a girl). The ideology based on post-modern ideas that there is no objective reality independent of our perceptions and social constructions, and that we can transcend biology so that a body actually becomes (or always was) male or female on describing oneself as such (although constant validation and confirmation of this from others is required, otherwise one might cease to exist). Also promoted, for those who prefer, by 'new science' and 'brain science' that is actually mostly stuff that has been known for ages or already debunked, but is now repackaged and reinterpreted to support the narrative (which is why it is necessary to threaten, harass and attempt to 'cancel' biologists who object, because it is impossible to advance by the more usual process of academic debate and argument).

 

[d4m10n]

Is there a good argument for replacing sex w/ gender identity in national data gathering?

https://twitter.com/ProfAliceS/status/1282370474257850369

 

[cullennz]

Is there a good argument for replacing sex w/ gender identity in national data gathering?

https://twitter.com/ProfAliceS/status/1282370474257850369

No

 

[Belz...]

Is there a good argument for replacing sex w/ gender identity in national data gathering?

https://twitter.com/ProfAliceS/status/1282370474257850369

Only if they're a write-in gender field, as I'm sure that would lead to hilarity. Sort of a McBoatface situation.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Is there a good argument for replacing sex w/ gender identity in national data gathering?

https://twitter.com/ProfAliceS/status/1282370474257850369

Kind of depends on what that data gets used for.

 

[d4m10n]

Kind of depends on what that data gets used for.

Agreed, though I'd argue that it is generally worthwhile to collect both sex at birth (male, female, intersex) and gender at present (drop down menu, I guess).

 

[Emily's Cat]

Agreed, though I'd argue that it is generally worthwhile to collect both sex at birth (male, female, intersex) and gender at present (drop down menu, I guess).

That seems like it would make for a much more useful and flexible data set.