Covid-19 and Politics

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I am starting to understand why it took so long for the UK to obtain PPE.

It takes time for conservative MPs advisors and Cabinet Ministers to become directors of shell companies so they can win unchallenged tenders, offshore the profit and complicate basic supply chains whilst the country dies.
 
jimbob said:
Meanwhile, Israel relaxed its lockdown on May 28th after an initally good response to coronavirus.

This is what the cumulative cases look like at the moment.

I took the data from the ECDC website: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

View attachment 42524

ETA: It's the left hand axis for this graph
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That's disturbing, and judging by the performance of English boozers getting jam-packed into their favourite haunts at the earliest opportunity I can see exactly the same happening there.
 
GlennB said:
That's disturbing, and judging by the performance of English boozers getting jam-packed into their favourite haunts at the earliest opportunity I can see exactly the same happening there.
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I think, as ever, that we are seeing the worst examples in the media. I’ve seen a number of reports of pubs that had a very orderly Saturday night, but that doesn’t make exciting headlines.
 
It's a numbers game. Disease control people aren't aiming for zero new cases next week (although they would take that if they could get it!), they're aiming for fewer new cases next week than this week, and to continue in that vein. Time will tell whether there is sufficient bad behaviour to jeopardise this goal. Given the way this virus behaves I'm concerned that there is.
 
Rolfe said:
It's a numbers game. Disease control people aren't aiming for zero new cases next week (although they would take that if they could get it!), they're aiming for fewer new cases next week than this week, and to continue in that vein. Time will tell whether there is sufficient bad behaviour to jeopardise this goal. Given the way this virus behaves I'm concerned that there is.
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Yes, if there's an average 0.5% prevalence at the moment, then it doesn't need very many lax people who are infectious to cause a sharp spike.
 
I seriously hope there is not a 0.5% prevalence at the moment. That would be 290,000 infectious people in England. I think the estimates are around 80,000, which is bad enough.
 
The R number has drifted up a bit, possible over 1 in London now, and that's before the pubs re-opened.

Latest R number range for the UK
0.7-0.9

Latest growth rate range for the UK
-6% to -0% per day
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England regions:
Region|R |Growth rate % per day
England|0.8-0.9 |-5 to -2
East of England|0.7-0.9 |-5 to 0
London|0.8-1.1 |-4 to +2
Midlands|0.8-1.0 |-4 to 0
North East and Yorkshire|0.8-1.0 |-5 to 0
North West|0.7-0.9 |-4 to 0
South East|0.7-1.0 |-5 to 0
South West|0.7-1.0 |-7 to +2
 
Rolfe said:
I seriously hope there is not a 0.5% prevalence at the moment. That would be 290,000 infectious people in England. I think the estimates are around 80,000, which is bad enough.
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I heard our wonderful (OK mine) health secretary tell me there is only a 1 in 2000 chance that anyone I come into contact will be infected, so that's good odds!
 
zooterkin said:
The R number has drifted up a bit, possible over 1 in London now, and that's before the pubs re-opened.



England regions:
Region|R |Growth rate % per day
England|0.8-0.9 |-5 to -2
East of England|0.7-0.9 |-5 to 0
London|0.8-1.1 |-4 to +2
Midlands|0.8-1.0 |-4 to 0
North East and Yorkshire|0.8-1.0 |-5 to 0
North West|0.7-0.9 |-4 to 0
South East|0.7-1.0 |-5 to 0
South West|0.7-1.0 |-7 to +2
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Can't be the case else we'd be back to 4 on the "here is something we scribbled on the back of a Starbucks coaster" scale which would mean we'd be back into lockdown.
 
Rolfe said:
I seriously hope there is not a 0.5% prevalence at the moment. That would be 290,000 infectious people in England. I think the estimates are around 80,000, which is bad enough.
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It might be a bit high for the average, but in some localities the figure is much higher. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...cases-england-scotland-wales-northern-ireland

Area |Cases |Per 100k
Leicester |3,850 |1083.8
Merthyr Tydfil |540 |897.3
Oldham |1,833 |777.9
Bradford |4,168 |775.9
Barnsley |1,884 |768.4
Denbighshire |718 |753.2

Of course, cases is not the same as infectious people.
 
Darat said:
I heard our wonderful (OK mine) health secretary tell me there is only a 1 in 2000 chance that anyone I come into contact will be infected, so that's good odds!
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I got that number by scaling up from the estimate that there are 1,500 infectious people in Scotland at the moment, and the comment that the prevalence is five times higher in England. However there are nearly 500 people in hospital in Scotland with the virus, which suggests only about 1,000 free in the community and frankly a decent proportion of them should be self-isolating.

I think 1 in 2000 is only about 29,000 infectious people, but he may be assuming that most people who are infectious are either in hospital or self-isolating, so you wouldn't come into contact with them. It would be interesting to know where he got the figure from.
 
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zooterkin said:
It might be a bit high for the average, but in some localities the figure is much higher. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...cases-england-scotland-wales-northern-ireland

Area |Cases |Per 100k
Leicester |3,850 |1083.8
Merthyr Tydfil |540 |897.3
Oldham |1,833 |777.9
Bradford |4,168 |775.9
Barnsley |1,884 |768.4
Denbighshire |718 |753.2

Of course, cases is not the same as infectious people.
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If that's confirmed cases since the start, it's irrelevant. The vast majority of them will have recovered by now.
 
I don't honestly think that's any use at all now. It was showing some useful trends earlier in the epidemic but it's showing nothing helpful now.
 
Rolfe said:
I don't honestly think that's any use at all now. It was showing some useful trends earlier in the epidemic but it's showing nothing helpful now.
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I'd disagree. The sheer number of people reporting in most constituencies means that they are probably the earliest to spot upturns in the data.

Whether they are presenting the data in the most useful fashion, I would question
 
Neither political party takes C19 seriously. They're all rallying and spreading the pandemic because they hate each other. The government should pay people to quarantine and give no funds to people who refuse to shelter in place.
 
mattobrien85 said:
Neither political party takes C19 seriously. They're all rallying and spreading the pandemic because they hate each other. The government should pay people to quarantine and give no funds to people who refuse to shelter in place.
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Which country are you talking about ?

If you're talking about the US, you're in the wrong thread - this is "Non-USA & General Politics".

If you're talking about another country then please be specific. I'm not sure that other countries are having political rallies.
 
This is an interesting graph showing the constituent parts of the UK over the past three weeks. It's death data so less amenable to manipulation than infection rates (though of course there's a lag of about three weeks between infection and death) and it's expressed per million population so the figures are comparable.

[imgw=640]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcQM9HCWsAArxOz?format=png[/imgw]

The problems in Wales are likely to be related to the slaughterhouse clusters. NI is doing well but seems to have stalled a bit. Scotland continues to decline. Scotland's death rate is only 12.5% of the rate in England. It's against this background that people protesting at the border yesterday were called racists for wanting some restrictions placed on leisure travel between Scotland and England.

The way things were looking in England on Saturday, and with Scotland opening up indoor spaces next week, I think it will be a miracle if any of these downward trends continue much longer.
 
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