Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 2

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Bob001

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Continuation thread. As ever feel free to quote and reference from first part http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=13136936#post13136936 but don't forget the mod box below about keeping this thread to the science.
Posted By: Darat



Latest prospective covid treatment: Xrays.
Radiation, instead, attempts to prevent cytokines from being overproduced in the first place, by targeting lymphocytes.
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https://slate.com/technology/2020/06/radiation-coronavirus-trials-underway.html
 
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Wandering a little too bit away from the direct science discussions, let's get this thread back on track. There are at least two threads dedicated to political discussions about the virus, use those for the political stuff. Thanks.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Darat
 
What is the evidence to support the 2-metre social distancing rule to reduce COVID-19 transmission?

Very long survey of scientific reports relative to droplet/aerosol spreads:

A one-size-fits-all 2-metre social distancing rule is not consistent with the underlying science of exhalations and indoor air. Such rules are based on an over-simplistic picture of viral transfer, which assume a clear dichotomy between large droplets and small airborne droplets emitted in isolation without accounting for the exhaled air. The reality involves a continuum of droplet sizes and an important role of the exhaled air that carries them.
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https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-...tancing-rule-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission/

The Atheist's post above re meat packing plants is a unique example of ventilation spread which has caused thousands of infections. High volume of air flow. Recirculation with little or no outside air, and low temp ( 10C ) may make these facilities special cases. Be interesting to see what published studies come out.
 
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CEBM said:
Smaller airborne droplets laden with SARS-CoV-2 may spread up to 8 metres concentrated in exhaled air from infected individuals, even without background ventilation or airflow. Whilst there is limited direct evidence that live SARS-CoV-2 is significantly spread via this route, there is no direct evidence that it is not spread this way.
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Hi, everyone. I'm still in this thread and didn't get scared off by y'all after I asked questions about the environmental engineer guys and the virus guys and their invention of the 2 meter rule.
 
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So here's a new one (at least, it is to me, and I can't seem to find anything about it on the web).

I went to Worldometer and looked at global COVID deaths for the last 63 days. Totalling global deaths by day of the week produces

Monday - 30,717
Tuesday - 33,106
Wednesday - 47,900
Thursday - 46,165
Friday - 48,629
Saturday - 46,860
Sunday - 41,115

The US follows a similar pattern over the last 63 days

Monday - 6,153
Tuesday - 7,391
Wednesday - 13,178
Thursday - 13,307
Friday - 13,612
Saturday - 10,548
Sunday - 10,454

Looking at the last 28 days for the US, thinking that we've clearly gotten better at keeping deaths down and this might have some effect,

Monday - 1,610
Tuesday - 2,105
Wednesday - 3,941
Thursday - 3,683
Friday - 3,908
Saturday - 3,698
Sunday - 2,998

and if anything the Monday/Tuesday effect has become more pronounced

I like to think of myself as pretty good at coming up with explanations for weird behavior, but this has got me stumped. Two days out of the week have death rates about 30% below the other five days. What's so special about Monday and Tuesday that people are not dying?

Any suggestions?
 
Just wondering - in addition to masks, why not full-face motorcycle helmets as an alternative? People could then see your face and you could even install a little filtered fan for some air circulation (with some other minor modifications). Plus, it's great protection for if you fall down!

OK, they're much more expensive, but plenty of people have them already. I've seen people wearing ski or airsoft masks, but those still obscure your mouth and nose.
 
WhatRoughBeast said:
So here's a new one (at least, it is to me, and I can't seem to find anything about it on the web).

I went to Worldometer and looked at global COVID deaths for the last 63 days. Totalling global deaths by day of the week produces

Monday - 30,717
Tuesday - 33,106
Wednesday - 47,900
Thursday - 46,165
Friday - 48,629
Saturday - 46,860
Sunday - 41,115

The US follows a similar pattern over the last 63 days

Monday - 6,153
Tuesday - 7,391
Wednesday - 13,178
Thursday - 13,307
Friday - 13,612
Saturday - 10,548
Sunday - 10,454

Looking at the last 28 days for the US, thinking that we've clearly gotten better at keeping deaths down and this might have some effect,

Monday - 1,610
Tuesday - 2,105
Wednesday - 3,941
Thursday - 3,683
Friday - 3,908
Saturday - 3,698
Sunday - 2,998

and if anything the Monday/Tuesday effect has become more pronounced

I like to think of myself as pretty good at coming up with explanations for weird behavior, but this has got me stumped. Two days out of the week have death rates about 30% below the other five days. What's so special about Monday and Tuesday that people are not dying?

Any suggestions?
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I believe that is has been mentioned many times before...

The people that prepare the statistics don't work on weekends and public holidays, so days following those events are lower.
 
Looking at the posted daily new cases for the USA it looks like the USA doesn't have a handle on anything...

23 June 2020: 34.7k
24 June 2020: 34.5k

USA deaths: 122,481
 
WhatRoughBeast said:
So here's a new one (at least, it is to me, and I can't seem to find anything about it on the web).

I went to Worldometer and looked at global COVID deaths for the last 63 days. Totalling global deaths by day of the week produces

Monday - 30,717
Tuesday - 33,106
Wednesday - 47,900
Thursday - 46,165
Friday - 48,629
Saturday - 46,860
Sunday - 41,115

The US follows a similar pattern over the last 63 days

Monday - 6,153
Tuesday - 7,391
Wednesday - 13,178
Thursday - 13,307
Friday - 13,612
Saturday - 10,548
Sunday - 10,454

Looking at the last 28 days for the US, thinking that we've clearly gotten better at keeping deaths down and this might have some effect,

Monday - 1,610
Tuesday - 2,105
Wednesday - 3,941
Thursday - 3,683
Friday - 3,908
Saturday - 3,698
Sunday - 2,998

and if anything the Monday/Tuesday effect has become more pronounced

I like to think of myself as pretty good at coming up with explanations for weird behavior, but this has got me stumped. Two days out of the week have death rates about 30% below the other five days. What's so special about Monday and Tuesday that people are not dying?

Any suggestions?
Click to expand...



All the statistics sites list "deaths reported that day." "Reported" means reaching the final stage of the information being received and listed by the relevant state agency and then getting passed on to whomever's posting the graphs. The weekly patterns relate mostly to which hospital departments and public health departments and intermediate state agencies are closed on weekend days, meaning not many of them reach the final tally point on Sun. or Mon.

In their internal reports, Massachusetts back-dates each death to the date it actually occurred, and also back-dates each new case (new positive test result) to the date the swab was taken. That makes the time series a lot smoother (though there's still a lull in new cases each Sun-Mon because fewer tests are actually performed on those days). But the Massachusetts data you see at Google or Worldometer doesn't show the back-dating. They want one number per measure per day (new deaths reported, new cases reported) and don't want to have to change the numbers from previous days. So you're seeing the crude sloppy data, and you can't easily discern trends on time scales shorter than weekly.
 
WhatRoughBeast said:
I like to think of myself as pretty good at coming up with explanations for weird behavior, but this has got me stumped. Two days out of the week have death rates about 30% below the other five days. What's so special about Monday and Tuesday that people are not dying?
Click to expand...

Who's in the mood to do much of anything on a Monday or a Tuesday?
 
The latest from the CDC:
- the US is likely only testing 5 to 8 percent of those infected.
- 3% of US counties currently have a high transmission rate
- conditions giving a high risk of a serious case are: chronic kidney disease, serous heart disease, sickle cell disease, COPD, weakened immune system from organ transplant, type 2 diabetes, and a BMI > 30 (60% of American adults have at least 1 of these!)
- conditions that possibly give a high risk of a serious case are: asthma, high blood pressure, stroke, pregnancy, and dementia

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
 
alfaniner said:
Just wondering - in addition to masks, why not full-face motorcycle helmets as an alternative? People could then see your face and you could even install a little filtered fan for some air circulation (with some other minor modifications). Plus, it's great protection for if you fall down!

OK, they're much more expensive, but plenty of people have them already. I've seen people wearing ski or airsoft masks, but those still obscure your mouth and nose.
Click to expand...

I see a number of folks (10% at a swag) around here using face shields like this one, without a cloth mask under. Seems to be acceptable to the local authorities.
 

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pipelineaudio said:
Or Hawaii, as blue as it gets, with the highest RT in the nation
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It is strange.

Before the 19 June rt.live major update, the HI estimate for Rt had such large confidence intervals (CI) that I felt it wasn't very informative (same with a half dozen or so other states with low numbers of cases and deaths). After that update, the CI is greatly reduced ... it's still larger than most other states', but not by as much.

Maybe someone who understands this better could comment?
 
The Atheist said:
The CDC has also come out and stated they believe infections are under-stated by a factor of 10, with 20M Americans having had Covid to date: https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...ave-had-coronavirus-heres-who-s-at-highest-ri

I think we can be fairly confident that the same applies everywhere, giving a likely mortality rate of 0.5% overall.
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Just a follow-up comment from a slightly different news source:

Info from the CDC:

Coronavirus may have infected 10 times more Americans than reported, CDC says (Reuters)

Yeah, a lot of us guessed that was the case a long time ago, but they have evidences.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.

The estimate, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is based on serology testing used to determine the presence of antibodies that show whether an individual has had the disease, the officials said.

The officials, speaking to a small group of reporters on Wednesday night, said the estimate was based on the number of known cases, between 2.3 million and 2.4 million, multiplied by the average rate of antibodies seen from the serology tests, about an average of 10 to 1.

“If you multiply the cases by that ratio, that’s where you get that 20 million figure,” said one official.
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The way that's worded is confusing to me. Can't you estimate the prevalence in the population from the serology testing alone?

So unnamed "senior administration officials" briefed "a small group of reporters" for this story. Why not go on the record?
 
If true, the good news of course is that it points to a lower IFR by a factor of 10. However, that seems to be already factored into many estimates.
 
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