It will? I'm not seeing the logic. Are you assuming that sexual offenders don't rape each other?
There are far, far, far fewer targets in the women's prison. About
93% of inmates are male. About
99% of incarcerated sex offenders are male. About
6% of the prison population are sex offenders, and there are about 215,000 people in federal prisons.
That works out to about 13,000 sex offenders in male prisons, and about 130 in female prisons... where the total population of female prisoners is about 15,000. So if you move all of the male sex offenders into female prisons, you'd nearly double the population in female prisons.
Even if they prey on each other as well as the non-sex-offending female inmates, there's still only a population of about 28,000 to choose from, compared to a prior population of about 200,000.
Basic math suggests that there would be fewer total victims of sexual offense in prison by moving all of the male sex offenders into female prisons. Basic human psychology suggests that with a significantly reduced pool of potential victims, fewer rapes and sexual assaults will occur.
So the total number of rapes and sexual assaults would reduce if you moved all of the sex offenders into female prisons.
Well, yes, probably. Unless we consider some rapes worse than others. If we do then it gets more complicated. Do you want to make that argument? I'm not opposed to it necessarily.
Whether we consider some rapes worse than others isn't relevant. If your ONLY goal is to reduce the total number of rapes, then moving all of the male sex offenders into female prisons will accomplish that goal.
Granted, it would increase the risk for incarcerated women from about 1% to about 50%... but it still lowers the total number of rapes and sexual offenses that occur in jail.
You might ask yourself why I'm stressing this particular point. Any reasonable person would think that reducing the total number of rapes is a good idea, right? And sure, it's a good idea. But it's an incomplete idea that leaves open some disastrous possibilities.
I suggest amending your objective to "Reduce the total number of prisons sexual assaults
without increasing the risk for any group".