Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[JesseCuster]

I think that CaseBro was referring to the percentage of the total population of the US that has died so far (which is now up to 0.005%).

If that's what he means, then he has no idea what the fatality rate of a disease means, and no wonder the number's he's throwing around make no sense at all, if he's just using terms in his own idiosyncratic way, instead of using those terms to mean what they actually mean.

The IFR (infected fatality rate) of a disease is the proportion of people with a disease who die because of it.

For example, the fatality rate of SARS is given at about 10%, because of the c. 8,000 people who contracted SARS during the 2003-04 outbreak, about 800 died because of it.

The fatality rate of Ebola is given at about 50-70% because about 50-70% of people who contract Ebola, die because of it.

The fatality rate of seasonal flu is about 0.1% because about 1/1000 people who get the flu, die because of it.

The fatality rate of COVID-19 is the proportion of people who contract COVID-19 and die because of it.

The "fatality rate" of COVID-19 is not given by looking at the amount of people who die from it in the US and then dividing it by the total population of the US. That makes no sense at all.

Maybe casebro can explain himself. Maybe.

 

[lomiller]

There is the choir practice where 45 of 60 became infected, and the dinner parties where most got infected. Many actual case reported of this nature.
Therefore 92% natural immunity is wrong by an order of magnitude.

Agreed. COVID is not a measles like virus where just being near somewhere an infected person has been is a risk for infection. Even in a closed environment like a cruise ship isolating people who were sick would be effective in preventing the spread of the virus. If everyone was mostly confined to their cabins there would be very little opportunity for the virus to spread.

Even if it's slightly more contagious than the flu, if there was any natural immunity it would not spread as fast as it has.

 

[Meadmaker]

There is the choir practice where 45 of 60 became infected, and the dinner parties where most got infected. Many actual case reported of this nature.
Therefore 92% natural immunity is wrong by an order of magnitude.

I'm wondering if we will see a "Passover bump". I know our family did not get together for Passover this year, but a lot of families decided to, despite the warnings. Easter, too, is one that a lot of Christian families will just refuse to say no to.

Today's numbers in Michigan look very good, lower than yesterday. Lower than any time since March 31. Definitely going in the right direction.

Unfortunately, social distancing is almost certainly the only real reason for this, which means that if we go back to work, the infection rate jumps up again. Governor Whitmer just announced that the stay at home order is extended through the end of April, to no one's surprise.

It's working, but it really hurts.

 

[JesseCuster]

Nah, I don't even own a mask.

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/200/420/BRTky.jpg?1321408042

 

[blutoski]

There is the choir practice where 45 of 60 became infected, and the dinner parties where most got infected. Many actual case reported of this nature.
Therefore 92% natural immunity is wrong by an order of magnitude.

I can't imagine there being a pre-existing immunity at all. And also not optimistic about the half life of post-recovery immunity. There's a reason we keep getting colds over and over, COVID19 is in the same family.

 

[blutoski]

Nah, I don't even own a mask.

I have a coworker who doesn't stop at crosswalks. It's hard for me to understand the mindset, but clearly there's a type.

 

[JesseCuster]

I can't imagine there being a pre-existing immunity at all. And also not optimistic about the half life of post-recovery immunity. There's a reason we keep getting colds over and over, COVID19 is in the same family.

There are over 200 viruses known to cause the common cold. Colds are more common caused by rhinoviruses than coronaviruses, and there are several different coronaviruses than can cause colds in humans.

People keep getting colds simply because there's so many viruses that can cause colds.

 

[blutoski]

I'm wondering if we will see a "Passover bump". I know our family did not get together for Passover this year, but a lot of families decided to, despite the warnings. Easter, too, is one that a lot of Christian families will just refuse to say no to.

Today's numbers in Michigan look very good, lower than yesterday. Lower than any time since March 31. Definitely going in the right direction.

Unfortunately, social distancing is almost certainly the only real reason for this, which means that if we go back to work, the infection rate jumps up again. Governor Whitmer just announced that the stay at home order is extended through the end of April, to no one's surprise.

It's working, but it really hurts.

There's competing models about what might happen when stay at home orders are lifted, and the diversion really pivots on some unknowns, such as how many occult cases are still in circulation, and what role animal reservoirs may serve.

Regarding that last point, I've been contacted by the animal rescue organization I volunteer at, asking me if I have capacity to foster more cats. Evidently they've seen a bump in abandonments and surrenders since last weekend.

 

[blutoski]

There are over 200 viruses known to cause the common cold. Colds are more common caused by rhinoviruses than coronaviruses, and there are several different coronaviruses than can cause colds in humans.

People keep getting colds simply because there's so many viruses that can cause colds.

Yes, I should elaborate on my statement.

I said "there's a reason" we keep getting colds, when I should have said "Reinfection from the same virus is *a* reason" we keep getting colds.

 

[pipelineaudio]

I'm still concerned about the food thing. What do you guys think is a safe way to disinfect plastic gatorade bottles? I was washing them by hand with dishsoap, but I figure I'm probably missing a lot of micro-spots. Would soaking them in soapy water be effective?

 

[Belz...]

So no reason then. You just don't trust them because... China.

No.

Think a bit.

 

[marting]

I'm still concerned about the food thing. What do you guys think is a safe way to disinfect plastic gatorade bottles? I was washing them by hand with dishsoap, but I figure I'm probably missing a lot of micro-spots. Would soaking them in soapy water be effective?

When I buy stuff that doesn't need refrigeration I let it sit for several days in the bags. Time pretty much kills it. Even on plastic though it takes somewhat longer.

 

[Belz...]

UK deaths now at 7978.

Hmm...

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

such as how many occult cases are still in circulation...
.

We have a forum for that...

 

[Andy_Ross]

881 deaths in the last 24 hours in the UK

 

[Dr.Sid]

So no reason then. You just don't trust them because... China.

Meanwhile, president Trump continues to make false and misleading statements about Covid-19 and other things, and fires any official who refuses to toady up to him. Right now I trust China more than the US government.

Well, your choice. US does have independent press, and no doctor will made vanished because he something on the internet. US actually does have internet. Trump really is stupid, but in US not all information has to go through him.

In Chine the situation might be 10 times worse, and we wouldn't know. In US that's just not possible.

 

[a_unique_person]

It is. I've read that 80% of COVID-19 cases that go on the ventilator die, and worse, they spend many more days on it than pneumonia cases. There's some question as to whether ventilators may even do more harm that good for COVID. Some places are experimenting with adding N2O to O2 as an alternative. No data on the results but an interesting alternative.

The cause is the problem. If a patient isn't getting enough oxygen then not giving them oxygen won't help either.

 

[a_unique_person]

I keep seeing that, but there appears to be a huge conflict of opinion.



Surely, it must be one or the other?

Medical problems and treatments are rarely black and white issues these days. Many treatments aren't cures but just help alleviate the problem. Diseases like covid-19 are complex and with a new disease, not well understood.

 

[alfaniner]

When I buy stuff that doesn't need refrigeration I let it sit for several days in the bags. Time pretty much kills it. Even on plastic though it takes somewhat longer.

Same here.

 

[JesseCuster]

UK deaths now at 7978.

Hmm...

Those people had COVID-19 and happened to die of respiratory failure at the same they had COVID-19. You see, they died with COVID-19, not of COVID-19. Or something like that.

Also, those who died of COVID-19 were old and/or had other illnesses. Which somehow makes it less of a deal that they died. Or something.

Pollution is bad in some areas with COVID-19 outbreaks which might be contributing to the seriousness of the presentations in those areas (I fail to see why thousands dying in Italy from COVID-19 being made worse by pollution somehow makes it any less serious of an outbreak).

According to a link given earlier in this thread, COVID-19 might actually be 10 times less deadly than season flu, despite 18,000 people dying from it in Italy, 15,000 dying from it in Spain, 10,000 dying from it in France, 8,000 dying from it in the UK, 4,500 dying from it in New York, etc. What is seasonal flu like in these places if a disease that might be 10 times less deadly is causing this much death and havoc?

I've forgotten the various strange claims floating in this thread which offer to explain why the pandemic isn't as bad as it apparently is.

Because this is no worse than season flu...

I wish it was no worse then regular flu, but you have to really try hard to deny what's going with COVID-19 in the world right now and to just chalk it up as nothing more serious than season influenza. Denial is looking more and more like the correct word to describe these people.