Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Sherkeu]

Since this thread is intended to be apolitical, I'm humbly asking you to use the president's proper name here. (In the political threads you can use whatever you want.)

Seconded. I 'chunk' read through responses and when I come across things like 'incompetru..' I don't even read the rest. There may be good info, but the childish wording stops me from caring to read it.

 

[marting]

First COVID-19 (distant) relative victim.

Wife just got a text that her sister in law's uncle died from COVID-19. He had visited Vegas in early March and developed symptoms shortly after returning. His relatives were beside themselves because they weren't allowed to visit him before he died and the funeral will be quite restricted as well.

We know of a few others that caught COVID-19 but haven't died.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Well here in Czech we have calm mood. But we have small social differences. Everybody has health insurance. Amount of homeless people or unregistered immigrants is marginal. Amount of guns is large compared to EU, small compared to US. Also people get wages monthly, so they won't run out of money in week.
Only minor offense is people tend to drive fast on empty roads.

 

[Sherkeu]

First COVID-19 (distant) relative victim.

Wife just got a text that her sister in law's uncle died from COVID-19. He had visited Vegas in early March and developed symptoms shortly after returning. His relatives were beside themselves because they weren't allowed to visit him before he died and the funeral will be quite restricted as well.

We know of a few others that caught COVID-19 but haven't died.

So sorry to hear. Vegas seemed like a good infection point but didn't have many cases. It is growing though and I think some data is just delayed.
I had my first 'person I know' test positive yesterday. He is a parent at my daughters school and also a police officer.

The human mind takes more serious what is personal. It's getting personal for many more people!

 

[marting]

So sorry to hear. Vegas seemed like a good infection point but didn't have many cases. It is growing though and I think some data is just delayed.
I had my first 'person I know' test positive yesterday. He is a parent at my daughters school and also a police officer.

The human mind takes more serious what is personal. It's getting personal for many more people!

Best wishes for the cop. They have a particularly rough job. This craps starting to get real.

 

[Athyrio]

Well here in Czech we have calm mood. But we have small social differences. Everybody has health insurance. Amount of homeless people or unregistered immigrants is marginal. Amount of guns is large compared to EU, small compared to US. Also people get wages monthly, so they won't run out of money in week.
Only minor offense is people tend to drive fast on empty roads.

Has there been severe restrictions on gatherings of people such as closings of restaurants or other tourist type attractions? Have your citizens lost jobs and monetary income?

 

[Delphic Oracle]

Don't know about one event, but I feel that, barring some miraculous shift of fortune, the many who have lived from paycheck to paycheck will eventually run out of cash on hand and hunger will drive them to go simian feces. I have seen mobs, even been in mobs but not dangerous or desperate ones. It's very easy to get caught up in a mob. A hungry mob is frightening to me.

One of my favorite late Roman Republic proverbs:

"Anarchy is only 3 missed meals away."

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

From what you can see there, how good would you say the relevant health (etc) agencies (etc) in Macau are (compared with those in Hong Kong)? With regard to covid-19.

From what I've read, they seem to have done some impressive work, and their contributions to policy - re travellers, social distancing, etc - have helped lead to such low numbers of reported convid-19 infections and deaths in Macau.

Macau authorities were aware that mask shortages were going to be an issue, so introduced a rule that people could only by 10 masks for a 10 day period. This helped to avoid the panic buying that we saw in Hong Kong.

I have to admit I can't remember their rules on borders, but they closed the Casinos pretty early, even though, as the world's largest and most lucrative gambling operation, it is Macau's lifeblood.

They then had just 10 cases for the best part of 2 months, all of which were discharged, and had a recent rise but are sitting around 40 now.

I think its fair to say that Macau citizens have accepted Chinese rule more easily than HK, as their government before the handover from Portugal to China was heavily disliked, so they are more likely to go along with government regulations, re the casinos and social distancing.

 

[Thor 2]

I continue to be puzzled by the statistics I am reading. Having my roots and lots of relations in Sweden I have been looking at the stats from there and comparing to other countries including Australia.

Total Cases. Deaths. Recoveries

Sweden. 6131 358. 205

Australia. 5350. 28. 585



Why is there more than 10 times the death rate in Sweden? The recovery rate would suggest the virus has been in Australia as long or longer than in Sweden.

Just wondering if some other factor is at work here .... higher immunity or a lesser virulent strain in Australia perhaps?

Sweden decided to not initiate lockdowns. All services, restaurants, stores etc etc are open for business as usual.

If anyone needed any evidence that social isolation is an effective response to contain/mitigate the spread of COVID-19, just look to Sweden.

Again, and again. Every country collects the data differently. They cannot be compared unless you know the methods. Even if they were collected in the same way, there are so many variables in spread and mortality, that it's really nothing to be confused about.

Hmm...

My instinct is to have a look at how quickly the cases were on hand.

Australia had the first four cases delivered to us on 26/1/2020, and they went straight into isolation. That's not a lot to manage.

On the 29th of February we had 10 new cases.

We didn't see a lot of cases in one day (72) until the 13th of March almost two months later.

That's a lot of time to make preparations and enquiries about effective treament etc. and nowhere near capacity to treat.

Sweden received the first positive case on the 27th of February, and two weeks later had 215 new cases on the 13th of March. (A total of approximately 660 new cases in about two weeks).

For us it was a case of forewarned = forearmed. People getting off from infected cruise ships were temporarily detained in camps, and the most ill, were immediately evacuated to hospitals in their home states.

I had hoped that we would continue with that approach, but unfortunately the wheels fell off.

However other measures started to be taken, and we've continued to see the benefit.

The logarithmic curve for Australia is starting to look better i.e. we're just on the lower side of the exponential growth line.

Thanks for the responses guys but it still doesn't make sense to me.

I can see that a higher infection rate would follow from the lack of lockdowns, but the much much higher mortality rate (10 times?) in Sweden, and the considerably higher recovery rate (3 times) in Australia, defies belief. Sweden is a very advanced country with very high standards of health care.

 

[EHocking]

Thanks for the responses guys but it still doesn't make sense to me.

I can see that a higher infection rate would follow from the lack of lockdowns, but the much much higher mortality rate (10 times?) in Sweden, and the considerably higher recovery rate (3 times) in Australia, defies belief. Sweden is a very advanced country with very high standards of health care.

It seems that the elderly, probably because of susceptibility to underlying medical conditions, make up the majority of ICU admissions and also deaths on Sweden.
https://platz.se/coronavirus/?lang=en

More of the elderly being infected than in other countries is probably due to the fact that they were not protected from the spread of infection by isolation of the population of Sweden from each other.

Here's an article that may be useful.
http://theconversation.com/coronavi...-our-best-bet-for-comparing-strategies-135344

 

[The Atheist]

And it is largely un-diagnosed. As is type 2 diabetes and heart disease.

Never mind obesity.. Not cool to say the " O " word...

I was going to note that the pictures I've seen of people who succumbed to Covid-19 seem to have generally been pretty fat,

I can see that a higher infection rate would follow from the lack of lockdowns, but the much much higher mortality rate (10 times?) in Sweden, and the considerably higher recovery rate (3 times) in Australia, defies belief. Sweden is a very advanced country with very high standards of health care.

There is a thread on that very subject: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=343009

 

[ChrisBFRPKY]

Thanks for the responses guys but it still doesn't make sense to me.

I can see that a higher infection rate would follow from the lack of lockdowns, but the much much higher mortality rate (10 times?) in Sweden, and the considerably higher recovery rate (3 times) in Australia, defies belief. Sweden is a very advanced country with very high standards of health care.

Could environmental/climate conditions be a reason? Specifically as they relate to relative humidity. Since it is now supposed Covid-19 can be transmitted as an aerosol and by normal respiration, it would argue that the dry climate with lower relative humidity would see less infectious spread.

Australia would be largely/mostly more arid than Sweden.

There are a few exceptions to the humidity theory though such as Iran. The climate is dry but their infection rate is still high. I think this could be explained by contact spread though (large crowds, all touching the same things) and limited hand washing. The way Arabs typically consume their meals is likely a factor as well. The "hands on" approach is very common in the Middle East. Grabbing a handful of rice from a shared bowl etc.

Chris B.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Has there been severe restrictions on gatherings of people such as closings of restaurants or other tourist type attractions? Have your citizens lost jobs and monetary income?

We're on complete lockdown third week now. Since under 100 cases and zero deaths. But somehow we could learn from mistake of others. Slovakia did the same with even less cases.
No gatherings allowed at all. Only essential shops open. Companies work as usual as long, home office where possible. Restaurants and attractions all closed. Shops and small services are hit hardest. No mass releasing yet, state is promising to help with wages. Do far at least they delayed main taxes deadlines. There are also small 'status quo' rules. Interests on loans are delayed, you can't evict tennants and so on.
You are allowed outside for shopping, work, even just for a strawl. Mask outside mandatory. You could say it's tough, but not unbearable.
Seeing many countries doing almost nothing is sad. Economy will get hit, especially in some areas. But economy can recover. Corpses can't. And if health system collapse, economy will follow.

 

[Samson]

We're on complete lockdown third week now. Since under 100 cases and zero deaths. But somehow we could learn from mistake of others. Slovakia did the same with even less cases.
No gatherings allowed at all. Only essential shops open. Companies work as usual as long, home office where possible. Restaurants and attractions all closed. Shops and small services are hit hardest. No mass releasing yet, state is promising to help with wages. Do far at least they delayed main taxes deadlines. There are also small 'status quo' rules. Interests on loans are delayed, you can't evict tennants and so on.
You are allowed outside for shopping, work, even just for a strawl. Mask outside mandatory. You could say it's tough, but not unbearable.
Seeing many countries doing almost nothing is sad. Economy will get hit, especially in some areas. But economy can recover. Corpses can't. And if health system collapse, economy will follow.

Broadly similar to New Zealand. Keep it up.
We should go down an alert in 2.5 weeks and businesses with easy to achieve social spacing should reopen.
From the algo I am using.

 

[EHocking]

Could environmental/climate conditions be a reason? Specifically as they relate to relative humidity. Since it is now supposed Covid-19 can be transmitted as an aerosol and by normal respiration, it would argue that the dry climate with lower relative humidity would see less infectious spread.

Australia would be largely/mostly more arid than Sweden.

Ooorrrrr, Australia has been instigating lockdown and social distancing for weeks and Sweden has not.

There are a few exceptions to the humidity theory though such as Iran. The climate is dry but their infection rate is still high. I think this could be explained by contact spread though (large crowds, all touching the same things) and limited hand washing. The way Arabs typically consume their meals is likely a factor as well. The "hands on" approach is very common in the Middle East. Grabbing a handful of rice from a shared bowl etc.

Chris B.

Aannnnndddd, Sweden has not closed any restaurants and bars and does not instigate social distancing in them either.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Seconded. I 'chunk' read through responses and when I come across things like 'incompetru..' I don't even read the rest. There may be good info, but the childish wording stops me from caring to read it.

Agreed on both the name calling part and the "there may be good info" part.

 

[pipelineaudio]

Claims of china ordering hundreds of thousands of body bags from taiwan. Is China in Focus a reputable source?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhzF-5xELOE

 

[Dr.Sid]

Interesting .. seems like eastern side of iron curtain is somewhat more resistant. It's especially visible in Germany. Old Eastern Germany districts have much less cases.
And the idea is it's caused by TBC vaccines, which were mandatory in the East for much longer (till 2010 in Czech Republic). The mechanism is unclear, but that so called BCG vaccine is known to boost immune system in general. Netherlands is about to start blind study on medical personnel.
Another example is Portugal vs. Spain. Portugal used TBC vaccines, Spain did not.

Btw. Worldometer started to show number of tests taken.

 

[Sherkeu]

Interesting .. seems like eastern side of iron curtain is somewhat more resistant. It's especially visible in Germany. Old Eastern Germany districts have much less cases.

I have been following the flow of cargo planes just out of curiosity. Several of them have been landing in Leipzig in the last 2 days.
I didn't even know where that was until I looked it up. Former E. German city. 2nd most populous, after Berlin.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The situation in Europe

I'm posting this primarily because I'm interested in seeing how Europe is doing overall, because a lot of the discussion has centred around the very bad situation in Italy and Spain, with notes about France and the UK. I'm not trying to make any sort of statement, political or otherwise.

To get an overview of the situation in Europe, I gathered the names of the countries in the European Union plus Norway, Switzerland, and the UK, and got their populations from the individual country articles in Wikipedia. I then got the Wikipedia page on the 2019-2020 Coronavirus Pandemic and used an awk program to read the "2019–20 coronavirus pandemic by country and territory" table, extract the countries of interest, and generate the following table.

Country | Population | Cases | (per 100,000) | Deaths | (per 100,000) |
Austria |

8,902,600​

|

11,521​

|

129.4​

|

168​

|

1.9​

|
Belgium |

11,515,793​

|

16,770​

|

145.6​

|

1,143​

|

9.9​

|
Bulgaria |

7,000,039​

|

485​

|

6.9​

|

14​

|

0.2​

|
Croatia |

4,076,246​

|

1,079​

|

26.5​

|

8​

|

0.2​

|
Cyprus |

11,892,65​

|

386​

|

32.5​

|

10​

|

0.8​

|
Czech Republic |

10,649,800​

|

4,091​

|

38.4​

|

53​

|

0.5​

|
Denmark |

5,822,763​

|

3,757​

|

64.5​

|

139​

|

2.4​

|
Estonia |

1,328,630​

|

961​

|

72.3​

|

12​

|

0.9​

|
Finland |

5,526,774​

|

1,608​

|

29.1​

|

19​

|

0.3​

|
France |

67,022,000​

|

63,633​

|

94.9​

|

6,496​

|

9.7​

|
Germany |

83,149,300​

|

91,959​

|

110.6​

|

1,277​

|

1.5​

|
Greece |

10,768,477​

|

1,613​

|

15.0​

|

63​

|

0.6​

|
Hungary |

9,722,756​

|

623​

|

6.4​

|

26​

|

0.3​

|
Ireland |

6,572,728​

|

4,273​

|

65.0​

|

120​

|

1.8​

|
Italy |

60,317,116​

|

119,827​

|

198.7​

|

14,681​

|

24.3​

|
Latvia |

1,919,968​

|

493​

|

25.7​

|

1​

|

0.1​

|
Lithuania |

2,794,329​

|

696​

|

24.9​

|

9​

|

0.3​

|
Luxembourg |

613,894​

|

2,612​

|

425.5​

|

31​

|

5.0​

|
Malta |

493,559​

|

202​

|

40.9​

|

0​

|

0.0​

|
Netherlands |

17,424,978​

|

15,723​

|

90.2​

|

1,487​

|

8.5​

|
Norway |

5,367,580​

|

5,519​

|

102.8​

|

59​

|

1.1​

|
Poland |

38,386,000​

|

3,383​

|

8.8​

|

71​

|

0.2​

|
Portugal |

10,276,617​

|

9,886​

|

96.2​

|

246​

|

2.4​

|
Romania |

19,401,658​

|

3,183​

|

16.4​

|

133​

|

0.7​

|
Slovakia |

5,450,421​

|

450​

|

8.3​

|

1​

|

0.0​

|
Slovenia |

2,094,060​

|

934​

|

44.6​

|

20​

|

1.0​

|
Spain |

47,007,367​

|

119,199​

|

253.6​

|

11,198​

|

23.8​

|
Sweden |

10,333,456​

|

6,122​

|

59.2​

|

351​

|

3.4​

|
Switzerland |

8,570,146​

|

19,702​

|

229.9​

|

604​

|

7.0​

|
United Kingdom |

67,886,004​

|

38,690​

|

57.0​

|

3,605​

|

5.3​

|
Europe |

531,584,324​

|

549,380​

|

103.3​

|

42,045​

|

7.9​

|

Don't worry about me posting this every day. I might post it once a week.