Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[pipelineaudio]

Confirmed? as in "No other cause of death possible? No chance of mal diagnosis?"

50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, is 4,000 per month. Only when Covid passes that can there are doubtless actual covid deaths, not "Deaths attributed to covid".

Or, 2.8m deaths per year from all causes. that is 7,700 per day. What was that latest day's attibutibed to Covid?

As in close enough to need ^&&*%%8 tents in central park and people dying in large numbers alone without their families being able to be with them holy crap

 

[angrysoba]

Over a thousand behind heart disease or cancer .. ( 2017 stats )

Some perspective helps.

The people who lack perspective are the ones who keep saying that this is not much different from the flu.

But could you tell me what the "perspective" you are trying to provide is meant to help with?

Pandemic?

 

[Skeptical Greg]

The people who lack perspective are the ones who keep saying that this is not much different from the flu.
...

That would leave me out..


The perspective is, that most people who are going to die in the next few days are going to die from something besides Covid19... A lot more.

I doubt their loved ones are going to feel a lot better than the ones of those who died from Covid19.

 

[Giordano]

Oh, and apologies to everyone else who has already worked this out.

I've been baffled by ongoing media reports saying that cases are going down, and everything will be good.

The journos are struggling to explain, that the 'rate of increase', is decreasing.

I can see why they're having trouble with that one.

Semi-logplots are very useful because a given rate of increase shows as a straight line with a single slope. A line curving down means a decreasing rate of new infections. Easy to compare different countries and regions to one another.

 

[novaphile]

I generally don't go to the doctor for flu or flu-like symptoms. There's no treatment anyway.

The last time I went was the time with the pneumonia, because I had a really deep, bad, cough, that lasted two weeks. That was probably 15 years ago.

These days I say that if I have a cough that is not getting better after a week, I would go to a doctor. Basically, if I suspect it has turned into something that could be treated with an anti-biotic, I would go.

Good grief! Where do you live?

There are at least two specifics for influenza on the market, in Australia they are called 'Tamiflu' and 'Relenza'.

In the USA:
Baloxavir marboxil (Xofluza)
Oesltamivir (Tamiflu, generic)
Zanamivir (Relenza Diskhaler)
Peramivir (Rapivab)

 

[gypsyjackson]

Out of curiousity, does any reader know what "the flu season" is for places near the equator (Singapore, say)? Or places where the seasons are "wet" and "dry"?

According to this paper it just happens all year round, but some places have a little bit of two bumps. But it is mostly just not seasonal.

From Kuala Lumpur, just north of Singapore, I confirm I haven't really seen a flu season, it's all year round. What does sometimes seem to happen is occasional spikes possibly due to people coming from US/Europe and Australia in their flu season and causing little outbreaks.

The issue is slightly confused by local terminology, as people call the substance which comes out of your nose when you have a cold 'flu'; and when people sneeze they say they have the flu and take a single day off work.

My office usually offers the annual flu jab around May, IIRC.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I generally don't go to the doctor for flu or flu-like symptoms. There's no treatment anyway.

The last time I went was the time with the pneumonia, because I had a really deep, bad, cough, that lasted two weeks. That was probably 15 years ago.

These days I say that if I have a cough that is not getting better after a week, I would go to a doctor. Basically, if I suspect it has turned into something that could be treated with an anti-biotic, I would go.

There is treatment for flu if started within 24 hours of symptom onset. If you have a sudden onset of high fever and headache/muscle aches DURING FLU OUTBREAKS, head to the doctor.

Not now of course.

 

[William Parcher]

The perspective is, that most people who are going to die in the next few days are going to die from something besides Covid19... A lot more.

I doubt their loved ones are going to feel a lot better than the ones of those who died from Covid19.

But this virus is killing people in addition to those other causes of death and that's really bad. There is a brand new way to die on this planet and it is sending a whole lot of people to their grave.

 

[Arcade22]

WASHINGTON — The C.I.A. has been warning the White House since at least early February that China has vastly understated its coronavirus infections and that its count could not be relied upon as the United States compiles predictive models to fight the virus, according to current and former intelligence officials.

The intelligence briefings in recent weeks, based at least in part on information from C.I.A. assets in China, played an important role in President Trump’s negotiation on Thursday of an apparent détente with President Xi Jinping of China. Since then, both countries have ratcheted back criticism of each other.

Obtaining a more accurate count of the Chinese rate of infection and deaths from the virus has worldwide public health implications at a time of grave uncertainty over the virus, its speed of transmission and other fundamental questions. For American officials, the totals are critical to getting a better understanding of how Covid-19 will affect the United States in the months to come and of the effectiveness of countermeasures like social distancing, according to American intelligence agencies and White House officials.

So far, to the frustration of both the White House and the intelligence community, the agencies have been unable to glean more accurate numbers through their collection efforts.

But American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world. Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html

China's authoritarian bureaucratic nightmare is not a reliable and credible source of information. Shocking? Not really.

 

[Giordano]

Over a thousand behind heart disease or cancer .. ( 2017 stats )

Some perspective helps.



Pandemic?

I’m not getting your point. As you note these are 2017 statistics for all sorts of diseases, etc. if it is that cancer has been the second biggest killer in the USA you are correct. As for perspective the growth of the covid epidemic proses to dwarf that by 2- 3 fold or more. And cancer will still be killing the people it does.

Imagine: a new form of death that exceeds the two biggest killers now.

 

[quadraginta]

I think part of the response was how could a completely self-contained vessel at sea get any CoV-SARS-2 virus particles on it to cause an infection? Which raises the question of how did the virus get on to the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Obviously shore leave was involved.

Also crew rotations, supply deliveries, visitors, routine exercises, ...

It helps to remember that an aircraft carrier has the population of a small town. Because like a small town there's all sorts of things going on. Possibly more than the average small town.

Unless they are on a combat footing then lots of people will be coming and going. Apparently the idea that sailors and other sundry visitors (no matter how military) might carry the virus didn't occur to them until it was too late.

And too late was when the first person carrying the virus stepped on deck.

 

[Skeptical Greg]

...

Imagine: a new form of death that exceeds the two biggest killers now.

Over 3,000 a day?

I'll try to imagine that ..

Another look at co-founders. I find this more important than raw numbers.

Coronavirus poses special risk to millions of Americans with diabetes

Data compiled on the 2,112 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 through March 28 showed 10.9 percent had diabetes, the most frequent underlying health condition among those who had died. Still, health experts caution that more still needs to be learned about the link between diabetes and COVID-19.

 

[Giordano]

That would leave me out..


The perspective is, that most people who are going to die in the next few days are going to die from something besides Covid19... A lot more.

I doubt their loved ones are going to feel a lot better than the ones of those who died from Covid19.

In the next few days... and then more and more and more will be dying of covid 19 itself.

But my god you have an odd perspective. These are “new” deaths. A lot of them and increasing more and more. The people dying of cancer will have died of cancer anyway. More people will die. Many more. In fact some people who might have survived cancer will die of it now because covid kills them in their weakened condition or limits their access to medical care, e.g ventilators.

 

[quadraginta]

There is something a bit odd with UK doctor deaths from covid, which might just be chance but...

Dr Alfa Saadu, 68y
Mr. Amged el-Hawrani, 55y ear, nose and throat consultant
Mr Adil el Tayar, 63y surgeon,
Dr Habib Zaidi, 76y, GP

that they are all older and male is not surprising but the chances of all four being ethnic minorities is a little odd.

Erm... Have you ever been to England?

Not just England. Well over half of the doctors I see regularly here have 'furriner soundin' names'. Some of them are even 'furriners'.

And this isn't a particularly cosmopolitan part of the country. Unless 'good ol' boys' have started qualifying as cosmopolitan.

 

[quadraginta]

More than 60 doctors in Italy have so far died from COVID-19 so far.

Mebbe it was the flu.

 

[quadraginta]

Flu season is considered to extend well into May.

For some definitions of "well into".

In much the same sense that some flowers could be said to bloom "well into" May even though their particular variety is down to a few sad husks with the last of their petals falling off.

Flu never really goes away. It is seasonal in temperate regions because there is a discernible rise in cases which occurs during weather centered around the colder months, but it doesn't disappear when it gets warm. There's just less of it.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

Hong Kong and Macau are not independent and their leaders are beholden to the Chinese government.

Notionally these territories are supposed to have "significant autonomy" but in practice the situation has deteriorated enough for Chinese secret police to be able to kidnap people from these areas and bring them to the mainland without the local government making any effort to protect their residents legal rights or even acknowledge what happened.

That is not to say that the numbers are false, but since the Chinese government wants to portray the pandemic as a mainly foreign problem after they successfully limited its spread, we can assume that they would underreport the true extent of the situation in China.

This is rubbish.

I am the first to criticize China, and it is entirely true that their Government is continuing to encroach on Hong Kong in as many ways as it can, but unlike China we have a free and open press, a professional, spirited and opinionated medical establishment.

In this situation there is absolutely no way the Hong Kong numbers are being underreported.

 

[quadraginta]

I wonder about the effect of high relative humidity on aerosols and micro-droplets. Could the virus have a more extended life in the air if the air is saturated with water vapor?

Depends on the virus.

Droplets fall quickly in humidity, ok. What about aerosols?

So dry conditions don't dry out the virus and kill it?

Depends on the virus.

<snip>

Singapore for example gets two bumps against a background of constant cases of influenza year round.

There is some evidence that higher humidity keeps viruses viable for longer outside the body, but also a lot of speculation that the main reason for respiratory infection spikes is seasonal behaviour change of the victims.

The best way to get someone else's respiratory virus is to be in an enclosed space with that person, with relatively high humidity.

(Like buses/trains in winter)

Depends on the virus.

Concerning influenza specifically,
from wiki;

Cold temperatures lead to drier air, which may dehydrate mucous membranes, preventing the body from effectively defending against respiratory virus infections.[2][3][4]

...

Research in guinea pigs has shown that the aerosol transmission of the virus is enhanced when the air is cold and dry.[2] The dependence on aridity appears to be due to degradation of the virus particles in moist air, while the dependence on cold appears to be due to infected hosts shedding the virus for a longer period of time.

...

Research done by National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) in 2008 found that the influenza virus has a "butter-like coating". The coating melts when it enters the respiratory tract. In the winter, the coating becomes a hardened shell; therefore, it can survive in the cold weather similar to a spore. In the summer, the coating melts before the virus reaches the respiratory tract.[8]

So colder, drier air is a more accommodating environment to the flu vlrus, and hence it is more easily transmitted from person to person in cooler weather.

Other factors also apply, of course, but I was addressing points about the virus survivability due to temp and humidity.


But that is for the flu virus. The same is not necessarily the case for any other virus. They don't all have the same types of membranes or responses to temp and humidity.

As far as I have been able to determine, there is no reason to assume that the Covid 19 virus is as vulnerable to humidity and warm weather as flu. I don't think there is enough reliable data available yet to know one way or the other.

 

[The Atheist]

50,000 pneumonia deaths per year, is 4,000 per month. Only when Covid passes that can there are doubtless actual covid deaths, not "Deaths attributed to covid".

4000 deaths in the past four days is a bit more than 4000 in a month. It'll be 5000 in 5 days tomorrow.

It appears that your posts are now plain trolling.

 

[angrysoba]

That would leave me out..


The perspective is, that most people who are going to die in the next few days are going to die from something besides Covid19... A lot more.

I doubt their loved ones are going to feel a lot better than the ones of those who died from Covid19.

WTF???

Who is disputing that there are other causes of death?

What do you think you are teaching people by saying that COVID-19 isn't going to kill as many people as cancer and heart disease?

Besides, the overwhelming of the hospitals is also going to lead to medical resources being stretched. Those that might otherwise need urgent cancer treatment or who might have serious cardiac issues are also going to have their outcomes affected by the pandemic.

You really do seem to be straining to downplay this, for some reason or another that I cannot fathom.

I mean, I suppose I could just point out that in 100 years time, we will all be dead so why care about what happens this week, right?