Cont: 2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 3

[Mader Levap]

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected.

No source given, of course.

That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

Current fatality rate is so far away from that estimate that I won't believe that one. Yes, I will take something that actually, currently happens over projection in future.

As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate.

Yeah, because projections are infallible and never are under political pressure to downplay threat.

Beside that, are those projections assuming current countermeasures in place? I have to ask that since you didn't bother with giving source. If they assume social distancing and other countermeasures, it follows without those actions COVID-19 would be way worse - and worse than normal flu.

A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu".

As others said, it is additional, new flu, that never existed before. Insisting it is same is quite bizzare.
I guess everything is fair game, including basic logic, when it is about downplaying and denying threat.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist

Everyone says that before telling tall tales about conspiracies and how something didn't happened (or won't happen).

 

[Minoosh]

If I didn't live on an old folks' campus I wouldn't worry at all; might even want to increase my exposure. I'm 60, in generally good health, and if I still lived alone I could self-isolate quite well - I'm introverted anyway, and have paying work I can do at home.

The governor just ramped up some restrictions and I need to go to several stores. There is one case on campus. They are isolated in their apartment at home. There is also an assisted living hub and a nursing home.

I have to take the dog out several times a day to a small dog park where a cohort of dog owners have taken to visiting each other to get outdoors. I can almost see some of them thinking, "**** it, I'm not that afraid." But then they remember their neighbors.

The past couple of weeks I have been taking walks off-campus since they closed the gym; think I'll just do on-campus laps of some sort today. I'm always worried about being let back in.

I scored a bottle of isopropyl alcohol - 99 percent! Not as convenient as gel, but happily lethal. When I go out I will carry it where people can see it, partly to remind myself to keep using it. It doesn't take much at all to rack up 10-15 close encounters on just a couple of errands.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

No source given, of course.



Current fatality rate is so far away from that estimate that I won't believe that one. Yes, I will take something that actually, currently happens over projection in future.


Yeah, because projections are infallible and never are under political pressure to downplay threat.

Beside that, are those projections assuming current countermeasures in place? I have to ask that since you didn't bother with giving source. If they assume social distancing and other countermeasures, it follows without those actions COVID-19 would be way worse - and worse than normal flu.



As others said, it is additional, new flu, that never existed before. Insisting it is same is quite bizzare.
I guess everything is fair game, including basic logic, when it is about downplaying and denying threat.


Everyone says that before telling tall tales about conspiracies and how something didn't happened (or won't happen).

The source is all over the news today, give me a break. I didn't tell tall tales, I used existing government figures and projections.

Let me know when the global death toll exceeds 200k. Until then you are the ones saying the sky is falling with no evidence.

 

[Steve]

The analogy fails. So far, globally, we have ~35k deaths. Of course they each matter, but statistically that is but a drop in the bucket from a normal flu year. I'm just not seeing how this equates to a "second tower". It still seems to be part of the first tower, as the German pulmologist I linked to says.

846,000 total cases is also a drop in the bucket compared to a normal flu year.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ current to approx 2 hours ago.

41,500 deaths from 846000 cases is a known death rate of 5%. The estimates by Fauci and your CDC do not match reality.

 

[Olmstead]

COVID-19 is also spreading much quicker than the flu for a variety of reasons. Without containment, the whole world would suddenly have the new "flu" in the space of a few months. That would definitely overwhelm hospitals, resulting in many unnecessary deaths.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

846,000 total cases is also a drop in the bucket compared to a normal flu year.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ current to approx 2 hours ago.

41,500 deaths from 846000 cases is a known death rate of 5%. The estimates by Fauci and your CDC do not match reality.

The UK says death rate is 0.6%. I don't know anyone who believes in a 5% dearh rate, that's obviously due to the testing sample heavily favoring the ill.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Now that, I'd be interested in. Why are the projections wrong? Fauci doesn't have a history of downplaying things. If anything, the opposite (see his AIDS predictions from years ago).

Good analysis of different methods to estimate mortality rate during the outbreak: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Most of it is like month old, but some formulas are recomputed using live numbers.

I especially suggest looking at South Korea, where the outbreak is mostly over:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Look for Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in South Korea. It stands at 2.93%, and it won't change much anymore. And South Korea is one of countries which tested most, and had surprisingly low death rate.

Also from the death-rate page (with references in the original article):

Finally, we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of 4% (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%.

And SARS was way slower outbreak with much faster deaths, ie. removing lots of time-delay induced errors.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

COVID-19 is also spreading much quicker than the flu for a variety of reasons. Without containment, the whole world would suddenly have the new "flu" in the space of a few months. That would definitely overwhelm hospitals, resulting in many unnecessary deaths.

Except that's not what is happening. See the other thread on the territorial anomalies.

 

[Doghouse Reilly]

Good analysis of different methods to estimate mortality rate during the outbreak: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Most of it is like month old, but some formulas are recomputed using live numbers.

I especially suggest looking at South Korea, where the outbreak is mostly over:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Look for Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in South Korea. It stands at 2.93%, and it won't change much anymore. And South Korea is one of countries which tested most, and had surprisingly low death rate.

Thank you, this is very useful and interesting information. I wish more people wouldn't assume I'm a bad actor who doesn't want information. I actually WANT to understand the discrepancies I'm seeing.

I would like to know more about the test sample in South Korea. Was it primarily sick/symptomatic people?

 

[casebro]

Actually, gun clubs are on the essential lists. But the clubs here are being sticklers for the social distancing rules. Unless you have some over-riding liability exceptions - we rent to law enforcemnt, active military units, self defense classes etc.

 

[casebro]

Thank you, this is very useful and interesting information. I wish more people wouldn't assume I'm a bad actor who doesn't want information. I actually WANT to understand the discrepancies I'm seeing.

But even SK only tested the self-suspected. That is why I keep pounding on the Kirkland Life Care Staff. No selection bias involved.

 

[JeanTate]

To repeat relevant parts of my response to a very similar post of yours, in another thread here in the SMM&T board:

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

A source would be nice.

The "normal flu" does not infect 160 million people in the US in any given year.

As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate. A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu".

<snip>

The definition of "the flu" (whether normal or not) has to do with infection of humans by a particular virus, Influenzavirus A, within the family Orthomyxoviridae^WP.

explaining how this hype happened (10 minute vid, he'sa pulmonologist and flu expert, well worth the watch), and how it's a case of the emperor having no clothes. We have northern Italy as an anamalous hotspot, which we have somewhere every year, we just don't tend to hear about it. We have the media machine hyping it up, reporting on every case and every celeb. It's all bs. Explain how it's not. I've been searching and have found the same reports on overflowing hospitals for the regular flu in the past. Here's just one example:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...ents/?amp=true

It's exactly the same.

Is the covid-19 epidemic, in Italy, over? Or is it still on-going? How about in the US?

If it's still on-going, what is the basis for making comparisons with the "normal flu"?

So we have we now have the US government on record as officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate and the media reports it as "Grim death toll projected." They could just as well have said "Promising new projections indicate epidemic may end up no with death rate no worse than normal flu".

They could just as well have said that.

And if you've done your own, at least semi-independent, modelling, you may reach the conclusion that "the US government" "officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate" is wildly optimistic (I am on record - elsewhere in this forum - with a projection of ~1.9 million covid-19 deaths in the US; happy to repeat it for you if you're interested).

If, this time next year, well over a million people in the US died of covid-19, then the media's "Grim death toll projected" will have been accurate, right?

Someone smarter than me please explain how this isn't all a bunch of BS, because I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist about most things but this is really striking me as questionable.

Hope you find my post helpful.

 

[lomiller]

They should charge him with attempted mass murder.

Was the pun intentional? Either way I was amused.

 

[Olmstead]

Except that's not what is happening. See the other thread on the territorial anomalies.

There could be any number of reasons for the discrepancies. Maybe after the illness exploded in Italy, other countries got their act together in time. Maybe some countries are fudging the numbers. Maybe it's a climate thing. It's too early to tell.

 

[JeanTate]

The analogy fails. So far, globally, we have ~35k deaths. Of course they each matter, but statistically that is but a drop in the bucket from a normal flu year. I'm just not seeing how this equates to a "second tower". It still seems to be part of the first tower, as the German pulmologist I linked to says.

Shall we re-visit this comment in a month's time? In six months' time?

Perhaps several thousand "Twin Towers" will have fallen by then ...

 

[JeanTate]

No. Everything I'm looking at is indicating that flu numbers are down

Source?

while coronavirus numbers are up.

If you're referring to covid-19, that's hardly surprising, right?

In other words, same thing. And as you can see in the article I posted from last year, tent hospitals aren't a new thing during flu outbreaks.

Let's see now ...

Down: 60k to 30k
Up: 0 to 2 million.

Without actual numbers, "same thing" is rather meaningless, wouldn't you say?

 

[Steve]

The source is all over the news today, give me a break. I didn't tell tall tales, I used existing government figures and projections.
Let me know when the global death toll exceeds 200k. Until then you are the ones saying the sky is falling with no evidence.

846,000 total cases is also a drop in the bucket compared to a normal flu year.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ current to approx 2 hours ago.

41,500 deaths from 846000 cases is a known death rate of 5%. The estimates by Fauci and your CDC do not match reality.

The UK says death rate is 0.6%. I don't know anyone who believes in a 5% dearh rate, that's obviously due to the testing sample heavily favoring the ill.

I used an independent source that does not rely on any one government. The numbers at this source are updated a number of times a day. I applied simple arithmetic to the numbers they provide. Belief is irrelevant. You may think the source is inaccurate and that is fine. I think the US government projection is inaccurate based on actual current records. There is no way to check US government projections and history has proven that any information coming out of the executive branch of that government over the last 3+ years is likely seriously flawed.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

Was the pun intentional? Either way I was amused.

Very good catch!

 

[JeanTate]

Now that, I'd be interested in. Why are the projections wrong? Fauci doesn't have a history of downplaying things. If anything, the opposite (see his AIDS predictions from years ago).

Do your own research!

Or at least read the Imperial College report, or the document in Medium ("The Hammer and the Dance"). Or ...

Here in this Science, Mathematics, Medicine, and Technology board, we expect that models and projections (etc) will be discussed. And assumptions debated. Etc.

What we find unwelcome is the logical fallacy Argument from Authority.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

Keep in mind that the current number of deaths is with the measures that have been put in place. We don't do that with flu/common cold. Italy's health system is being overwhelmed despite the strong measures they have taken. Imagine what it would have looked like if they had done nothing!