2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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This C&P from the toilet paper thread :

Childlike Empress said:
Italy has now 2003 "Covid-19 positive" deaths as of a just published official statistic with data up to the 17th. Here's the PDF and here are some bullet points auto-translated from a German summary:

The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
10% of the deceased were over 90 years old; 90% were over 70 years old.
0.8% of the deceased had no chronic previous illnesses.
Approx. 75% of the deceased had two or more previous illnesses, approx. 50% had three or more previous illnesses, especially heart diseases, diabetes and cancer.
17 deceased were under 50 years of age. Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with severe or severe previous illnesses.
The health institute continues to leave open what the examined patients died of and generally speaks of Covid19-positive deceased.
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Median age is 5 years older than median life span in the USA. Only 17 of the 2003 were less than 50 years old.

Sounds like it is mostly being spread form rest home to hospital, or like the string of care centers in Washungton, by itinerant workers.
 
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crescent said:
This thing has been around for about three months now. 100 days, give or take.

10% of all people diagnosed with the virus were diagnosed today. (20537 diagnosed today out of 219,000 total (really a bit less than 10%, but close enough. That's in increase of 20% for those areas outside of China).

10%of all people who have died from the virus died today. (closer to 11% really, dramatic license. 966 deaths today out of 8944 deaths total).

That's pretty bad. Things seem to be getting worse. Not better.
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By tomorrow, Italy could well have as many deaths as China. And only half the number or cases.

Something doesn’t seem right there. Of course, Italy is finding thousands of new cases a day so it could just be a lag in identification.

On the logarithmic scales on the worldometer, the graphs are curving upwards again. That’s a very bad sign.
 
casebro said:
but umm lemme thunk umm. doesn;t Congress control the budgetzzz< And the Przz can't even shift the Dollarzzzz to diifferent accountsssss?
And I forget, which party controls the Congress?
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At the time that happened, the GOP controlled both houses.

Now that the Democrats have the house, they can block bills but they cannot get their own legislation past Moscow Mitch.
 
casebro said:
In light of the way the initial numbers from some cohorts were of very high ages, I'd like the full story on the Life Care Center. 180 patients, 120 workers, many tested positives. How many of the dead were at hospice level? How are the workers faring? My point is, is age + heart disease actually "high risk", or does "in hospice" cover a huge slice of the risk?
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Hospice level? That's not how hospice works.

Some people might have DNR orders. That doesn't mean they're circling the drain, that means if something does happen they don't want heroic measures.

A fair number of the patients were in transitional care. They were in the hospital for things like broken hips and when they no longer needed the hospital but weren't ready to be independent at home, they go to transitional care facilities until they can return home. They were fully expected to return home.
 
casebro said:
My point was that Trump haters can't put the blame on Trump for changing the budget. It took both parties. SG's list was all proposals, where as I could come up with actual bills passed by Democrats. Enough with the partisanizing of the current crisis.
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And you would be wrong.
 
casebro said:
This C&P from the toilet paper thread :



Median age is 5 years older than median life span in the USA. Only 17 of the 2003 were less than 50 years old.

Sounds like it is mostly being spread form rest home to hospital, or like the string of care centers in Washungton, by itinerant workers.
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You are citing CE? :boggled:
 
angrysoba said:
By tomorrow, Italy could well have as many reported deaths as China. And only half the number or cases.
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FTFY. Remember, China's government has been trying to minimize this outbreak from the start. They've just decided to kick out western reporters. Supposedly, the reason for this is Trump kicking out Chinese reporters (working for their state-sponsored news outlets, it seems important to note), but the timeline doesn't quite match up. I suspect they're being kicked out because of the bad press the Chinese government has been getting over its handling of the outbreak.

Given all that, it wouldn't surprise me if China is under-reporting their infections and deaths.
 
angrysoba said:
By tomorrow, Italy could well have as many deaths as China. And only half the number or cases.

Something doesn’t seem right there. Of course, Italy is finding thousands of new cases a day so it could just be a lag in identification.
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21.7 percent of Italians are 65 and over, but only 10.8 percent of Chinese.
 
angrysoba said:
By tomorrow, Italy could well have as many deaths as China. And only half the number or cases.

Something doesn’t seem right there. Of course, Italy is finding thousands of new cases a day so it could just be a lag in identification.

On the logarithmic scales on the worldometer, the graphs are curving upwards again. That’s a very bad sign.
Click to expand...

I keep trying to wrap my head around the numbers. Today (March 18), America had 2850 new cases, for a total 9345 (from the Worldmeters site). 30% in one day. Some of that is probably due to increased testing (which is still tragically slow, my friends who are ill after going through airports still cannot get tested). But still, 30% in one day is really pretty bad, regardless - testing has not increased nearly that much.

In America, 1/4 of deaths that resulted from the virus (so far) happened today.
 
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crescent said:
This thing has been around for about three months now. 100 days, give or take.

10% of all people diagnosed with the virus were diagnosed today. (20537 diagnosed today out of 219,000 total (really a bit less than 10%, but close enough. That's in increase of 20% for those areas outside of China).

10%of all people who have died from the virus died today. (closer to 11% really, dramatic license. 966 deaths today out of 8944 deaths total).

That's pretty bad. Things seem to be getting worse. Not better.
Click to expand...

You elitists really crack me up. I bet you're still paying income tax...hahahahaha.
 
angrysoba said:
By tomorrow, Italy could well have as many deaths as China. And only half the number or cases.

Something doesn’t seem right there. Of course, Italy is finding thousands of new cases a day so it could just be a lag in identification.

On the logarithmic scales on the worldometer, the graphs are curving upwards again. That’s a very bad sign.
Click to expand...

But read post 2022. ""Italy has now 2003 "Covid-19 positive" deaths"". I suspect their first batch of mass testing was done in convalescent homes. And subsequently hospice patients died WITH covid, not OF covid. Which would make the epidemic look worse than it is.

I wonder if the same water muddying is happening elsewhere? "covid postive deaths" vs "deaths caused by covid"? It's one of those problems caused by excess testing. Like HIV tests with higher false positives than the rate in the general population... Sniffles, sore throat, get the test...positive.. get hit by a bus... Covid death!
 
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Update on the situation in Canada.

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Areas in Canada with cases of COVID-19 as of March 18, 2020, 5:20 pm EDT

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of probable cases
British Columbia|186|0
Alberta|97|0
Saskatchewan|2|14
Manitoba|15|0
Ontario|212|0
Quebec|94|0
Newfoundland and Labrador|0|3
New Brunswick|2|9
Nova Scotia|3|9
Prince Edward Island|1|0
Repatriated travellers|9|0
Total cases | 621 | 35
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Total cases is up again, from 569 to 621. That's only a 9% increase from the last reported number, but that was only a few hours before this report. I don't think the curve is flattening out yet. Number of deaths remains at 9.

Wikipedia disagrees with these numbers: it currently reports 727 cases in Canada. Quite possibly that's because Wikipedia may be more up to date, given that the numbers I just posted are 5 hours old. (Note that while the Wikipedia link is a "permalink," meaning it will always show the same information regardless of when it's viewed, I'm not sure if the table that I got the numbers from is part of the permalinked data.)

The USA is showing 9,285 cases and 150 deaths (Wikipedia), meaning the typical 10:1 gap between the USA and Canada on many things is widening. USA now has 12.7 cases for every Canadian one and 16.6 deaths for every Canadian one. I don't know how this trend will pan out in the long run; this is not the type of race where winning is a good thing.
 
Is it still the wisdom that wearing painters masks is more likely to get you infected than not wearing one? because all the countries that seem to be winning this are wearing them. Im seeing article after article of MSM saying they increase your risk

And on the other side, for sure dont they help to keep the infected from spreading?
 
pipelineaudio said:
Is it still the wisdom that wearing painters masks is more likely to get you infected than not wearing one? because all the countries that seem to be winning this are wearing them. Im seeing article after article of MSM saying they increase your risk

And on the other side, for sure dont they help to keep the infected from spreading?
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Their primary practical purpose is to give a visual reminder to stay away from people. Due to the material and weave, there's simply no way they stop virus particles from being ejected when someone coughs or sneezes, or even, realistically, when they breathe. They can also result in people touching their faces more and some will get a false sense of security and become more careless about staying away from people and not touching any old thing that happens to be around.
 
Fast Eddie B said:
Not independently verified, but this just crossed my Twitter feed:

[qimg]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49673438057_bd88d499f2.jpg[/qimg]
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I think there is good reason to believe that there may not be enough ventilators to handle the virus, but I don't understand how that could be happening now.

In the US there are maybe 300,000 hospitalizations per year for the flu.We are winding down flu season.

There have only been about 8,000 COVID-19 case in the US so far. Only a fraction have been hospitalized, let alone put on a ventilator. I can't see how
this can possibly be true.
 
Babbylonian said:
They can also result in people touching their faces more and some will get a false sense of security and become more careless about staying away from people and not touching any old thing that happens to be around.
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This sounds like one of those just so stories. I wonder why the WHO guys are wearing them

Not sure if this is a good source and it does say "opinion" but it has lots of links

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/...HWZ0tELqysy7bNSah0OolwIGMc7RAPphyKdh8_C86R-ko
 
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