2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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marting said:
Not according to this:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

In the earliest days at Wuhan, much of the spread was from people that hadn't been tested because they far outnumbered the known cases. Still, the infectiousness of these people with minimal or no symptoms was significantly less than those that had been identified.
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That is not mutually exclusive.

Add that to the pile of studies people cite while drawing conclusions well before enough data has been collected. (Not you so much as the source you cited.)

There is evidence of asymptomatic spread. There is evidence of kids getting infected. And there is even more evidence of premature statements from the public health in the US giving dangerous advice to people that you only got it from people with symptoms and only in close contact like in households.

In the US, that short sighted BS from people drawing conclusions instead of saying, "we don't know yet" resulted in people not getting tested who should have been and it resulted in unnecessary spread and it's disgusting.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
That is not mutually exclusive.
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Certainly true.

Skeptic Ginger said:
There is evidence of asymptomatic spread. There is evidence of kids getting infected. And there is even more evidence of premature statements from the public health in the US giving dangerous advice to people that you only got it from people with symptoms and only in close contact like in households.
That short sighted BS from people drawing conclusions instead of saying, "we don't know yet" resulted in people not getting tested who should have been and it resulted in unnecessary spread and it's disgusting.
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Yep. Sure is. I've even seen a few people claiming that testing is harmful! Testing is critical for planning and adapting mitigation. It's just mind boggling how screwed up it has been.
 
Marcus said:
It's an opinion, indicated by the word "seems". The opinion was arrived at by a subjective comparison of the number of deaths with the economic hardship observed and predicted.


ETA: I'm not sure what number of deaths would be proportional, although I could think about it. What number of deaths do you think would be proportional to this worldwide economic chaos?
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I have no idea, but it seems you ought to otherwise you wouldn't know what an out of proportion number would be.
 
Anyone come across Wolfgang Wodarg doing the rounds amongst those trying to downplay this pandemic?
wodarg.com
His main claims are:


1. the lab in China identified a novel corona virus in a small sample of pneumonia patients (<50) of whom there are always plenty in Wuhan (with 11 million people) and put it into "the virus database" (whatever that is)

2. the German virologist Christian Drosten developed a test for this virus which was "rushed to market" in China without proper validation so we don't actually know if it tests what it should

3. we don't know the baseline for coronaviruses in pneumonia related deaths so we can't establish whether COVID-19 actually increased the rates: From the cited Glasgow study we would expect around 5-15% of flu season deaths to test positive for a coronavirus in an average flu season in Germany. That would be 3000 deaths which is more than 100x more than the reported COVID-19 death toll in Germany so far

4. just because someone tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 and died of pneumonia does not mean that they died because of SARS-CoV-2.

Seems to me he wants to be the Duesberg of Covid-19....
 
!Kaggen said:
Anyone come across Wolfgang Wodarg doing the rounds amongst those trying to downplay this pandemic?
wodarg.com
His main claims are:


1. the lab in China identified a novel corona virus in a small sample of pneumonia patients (<50) of whom there are always plenty in Wuhan (with 11 million people) and put it into "the virus database" (whatever that is)

2. the German virologist Christian Drosten developed a test for this virus which was "rushed to market" in China without proper validation so we don't actually know if it tests what it should

3. we don't know the baseline for coronaviruses in pneumonia related deaths so we can't establish whether COVID-19 actually increased the rates: From the cited Glasgow study we would expect around 5-15% of flu season deaths to test positive for a coronavirus in an average flu season in Germany. That would be 3000 deaths which is more than 100x more than the reported COVID-19 death toll in Germany so far

4. just because someone tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 and died of pneumonia does not mean that they died because of SARS-CoV-2.

Seems to me he wants to be the Duesberg of Covid-19....
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Reminds me of people like Dr Michael Behe who have a unique theory and they want to be the one person who discovered it. There must be a psychological syndrome behind it. Once in a while said hypotheses actually have validity (H-pylori, plate tectonics, Dr Snow's cholera and the Broad St water source). But except for those, the rest are crackpots. This guy is a friggin' crackpot.
 
The COVID Tracking Project

The COVID Tracking Project collects information from 50 US states, the District of Columbia, and 5 other U.S. territories to provide the most comprehensive testing data we can collect for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to include positive and negative results, pending tests, and total people tested for each state or district currently reporting that data.
 
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pipelineaudio said:
When I see Zinc for any illness I get sketched, but this seems like its supposed to be legit

Is this a normally legit channel?
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I really can't say about that channel since that's the first I've seen of it, however searching YT with "chloroquine covid-19" gives over a dozen results that seem legit.
 
casebro said:
But Iran v SK- is there a difference in areas under the curves, or just the time to peak? Are SKs stopped dying?
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Just about. New cases have dropped and are still dropping, and they've had a very low mortality rate. Also, and interestingly, they have very few serious cases.

Ulf Nereng said:
I've seen some YT videos discussing Chloroquine or Remdesivir together with Zinc to inhibit Covid-19. Here's an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA

What do you guys think of this?
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I've mentioned it a few times - chloroquine phosphate seems to be very useful, and has been tried with several different antivrials.

Remdesivir's been shown to have some pretty nasty side effects, but given the potential outcome of death, I imagine a little rectal bleeding isn't too bad.
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Meanwhile, see if anyone can spot the problem here:

NZ's official position is that no community transmission has occurred in the country.

A man who flew from Auckland to Samoa to visit relatives is highly likely to have the disease...
 
I have not read this thread at all yet, so I apologise profusely if I am duplicating info, but i came across this paragraph on a Guardian article yesterday which has clarified my understanding to some degree:

"The coronavirus, officially SARS-CoV-2, is a virus, not a disease, and the disease it causes is COVID-19 (or coronavirus disease), deriving from CO(rona) VI(rus) D(isease)-(20)19. COVID-19 is also called “the coronavirus disease.” It’s not accurate to say “the virus COVID-19” (that’s the disease). Phrases to keep on hand: “COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus”; “the coronavirus, which causes COVID-19.”
 
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