2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

[angrysoba]

From the WHO's Situation Report 56 ("Data as reported by national authorities by 10 AM CET 16 March 2020"):

"The total number of cases and deaths outside China has overtaken the total number of cases in China. From today, total cases from China will no longer be featured separately (former Table 1)."

Note that, per the WHO, Taiwan, Macau, and Hong Kong data are rolled up in "China".

When will the reported cumulative totals - cases, deaths - for a single place exceed those for China?

Today (yesterday), Italy is leading ((24747, 1809) vs (81077, 3218) for China).

Certainly in terms of official figures, Italy is closing in on China fastest and the fact it apparently has a higher death rate than China suggests the numbers of infected may be even higher, but I have to wonder about Iran where from a very early stage a lot of rumours had been coming out about how the real numbers of deaths were far in excess of the official ones, and of course the reports of mass graves.

 

[JeanTate]

I think it is worth watching the press briefing conducted by Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance.

Again, the scientists here sound extremely reasonable, they go through their reasoning very clearly, and it is explained why they are being advisory rather than draconian*. They don't make dogmatic statements, they are measured in their treatment of the evidence, they explain what developments they are working on (for example, tests that show whether or not people have already had the virus, and not just whether or not they still have them).





And this is just the first in what is supposed to be a daily briefing, so I think it is worth giving the government credit for transparency and accountability.


*There is one somewhat amusing point that the UK actually has very strong emergency powers that can even ban handshakes that was brought in...in 1984!

Perhaps.

However, AFAIK, they have not yet released details of the models they have been using, including values of the input parameters (I'd love to be shown to be wrong).

Perhaps the social psychology they're using is that while politicians are not widely trusted (especially when it comes to transparency and honesty), scientists are.

Ironically, the ultimate in transparency is to publish your models ... and one's fellow scientists are rightly suspicious when you don't ("peer review" is good, but not as good as publishing the models).

 

[angrysoba]

Perhaps.

However, AFAIK, they have not yet released details of the models they have been using, including values of the input parameters (I'd love to be shown to be wrong).

I just had a quick search. All I can see is that they intend to publish the models, but presumably not yet.

Just out of interest, how does that compare to other countries?

 

[The Atheist]

*There is one somewhat amusing point that the UK actually has very strong emergency powers that can even ban handshakes that was brought in...in 1984!

Yeah, excellent sense of history there.

... but I have to wonder about Iran ...

I like the way they have zero serious cases in Iran.

You are either fine, or dead.

 

[chrispy]

I have had a bad feeling about this for a while. For example, I had a cold the other day and freaked out. But today I am starting to feel quite anxious. I live in a very remote area, and while we haven't had any cases near me I worry about the supply chain getting cut off from Guatemala City. The president here seems to be in control of what is generally a very weak central gov't, so I am somewhat hopeful but given the lack of medical care and hygiene in many places...maybe not so hopeful. I'm just ranting, but I am genuinely getting nervous. Anyhoo, the President has a big speech in 20 minutes, so I will find out if I still have a job or not and if martial law will be implemented. FML.

 

[angrysoba]

I have had a bad feeling about this for a while. For example, I had a cold the other day and freaked out. But today I am starting to feel quite anxious. I live in a very remote area, and while we haven't had any cases near me I worry about the supply chain getting cut off from Guatemala City. The president here seems to be in control of what is generally a very weak central gov't, so I am somewhat hopeful but given the lack of medical care and hygiene in many places...maybe not so hopeful. I'm just ranting, but I am genuinely getting nervous. Anyhoo, the President has a big speech in 20 minutes, so I will find out if I still have a job or not and if martial law will be implemented. FML.

Stay safe. Try not to panic. Keep in touch with loved ones.

 

[chrispy]

Stay safe. Try not to panic. Keep in touch with loved ones.

Thanks.I'm trying! Be safe, too.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
Again, I believe 100% of young, healthy people dying of it are caught.

I'm assuming people in a nursing home are neither.

I'm also assuming you have coroners in USA.

If you die in the hospital of pneumonia (provided you were there longer than 24 hours), autopsies are not usually done.

I'm not going to argue this with you. I practice medicine in this country and have for decades.

Because of the health department guidelines on who to test, it's certain there have been unrecognized COVID deaths in this state. You don't have to believe me.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The only people who I wanted to watch it were those who were calling the UK government's scientists crackpots. If you didn't think that, then you didn't need to watch it. There was no obligation.

How about "Okay, sorry I misunderstood!"

That would have been enough to move the conversation forward.

Too difficult for you?

Until you explain what you meant, I don't know that.

Now, if your post was narrowly aimed at a certain segment of the forum, then my apologies for butting in.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Italy seems to finally slow down. The might have peaked. Which means they could look at cca 60k cases in the end. Death might double and then some, due to 2 weeks lag. Which would put it over 4k, more than China.

 

[The Atheist]

I have had a bad feeling about this for a while.

At least you can take a fair amount of comfort that you're highly unlikely to need intensive care.

Keep us posted on the announcement - one of the best things about this thread is we have pretty near worldwide coverage of pretty honest reporting.

Good luck!

Because of the health department guidelines on who to test, it's certain there have been unrecognized COVID deaths in this state. You don't have to believe me.

I told you, I have no problem with that, but I seriously doubt that young, healthy people have died from it. Even if no tests had been done, parents & families would be screaming to the media, who would have been all over it.

Anyway, neither of us can be proved right, so let's put it aside until we know more.

Italy seems to finally slow down. The might have peaked. Which means they could look at cca 60k cases in the end. Death might double and then some, due to 2 weeks lag. Which would put it over 4k, more than China.

Hmmm. I'm a bit skeptical of Italy's numbers - they seem to catch up every second day on case numbers and their death high was only yesterday.

I hope you're right, but I'm sitting and waiting right now.

 

[LondonJohn]

I think it is worth watching the press briefing conducted by Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance.

Again, the scientists here sound extremely reasonable, they go through their reasoning very clearly, and it is explained why they are being advisory rather than draconian*. They don't make dogmatic statements, they are measured in their treatment of the evidence, they explain what developments they are working on (for example, tests that show whether or not people have already had the virus, and not just whether or not they still have them).





And this is just the first in what is supposed to be a daily briefing, so I think it is worth giving the government credit for transparency and accountability.


*There is one somewhat amusing point that the UK actually has very strong emergency powers that can even ban handshakes that was brought in...in 1984!

I agree. It does appear that UK Government policy in this area is being at least majority-influenced by the opinions of the Govt's own scientific committee, which is an apolitical advisory body containing numerous extremely well-qualified scientists and clinicians across all disciplines. And I further think that - contrary to his usual appearance of blustering glass-is-31/32-full shoutiness - Johnson seems to be handling this fairly well: sober and serious but rhetoric-free and panic-assuaging.

There were reports on Newsnight* tonight that one of the professors on the scientific committee from Imperial College London had done some medico-statistical analysis over the weekend which suggested that without extremely widespread social isolation, we could expect over 250,000 deaths in the UK as a conservative estimate. This is believed to have been one of the most significant drivers of today's announcement.

I will be extremely surprised (as I said in an earlier post) if the request for social isolation that was made today becomes a matter of legislation and enforcement by the end of this week. In fact, I'd imagine that the relevant legislation will already have been drafted and police and local councils briefed on their likely-imminent enforcement roles.

It's desperate for pubs, bars, cinemas, theatres, restaurants (though they will still be able to provide take-out food) and concert halls etc; and it's desperate too of course for all the employees of those types of business. But as so many eminent scientists and medics have pointed out, once you start to chase the rising curves of sufferers/carriers and deaths, you've almost certainly already lost the battle. The UK is approaching a real tipping point over the coming week, and this is precisely why Johnson took today's action in an effort to at least delay the acceleration.

And not-a-God only knows where national economies and the global economy are going to stand once Covid-19 infections get into a genuine steep decline (which could be as far away as mid-2021.....). It's kind of heartbreaking to think about. Obviously deaths and those who exhibit serious (and life-changing) effects are the biggest tragedy. But the lives of huge swathes of people are going to be radically adversely affected. It will take many, many years to recover from this.


* For non-UK readers, Newsnight is a (generally) well-respected late-night BBC news show usually covering a couple or so stories in-depth

 

[chrispy]

Ok. Waiting on our President now. The whole country is inside watching this. What he says will have MAJOR implication.

ETA: There goes my job. Heading to the bar for the last 2 hours of service before all bars and eateries are closed for at least 15 days. Churches closed. Semana Santa suspended. All schools, commercial centers closed. He is requiring all pharmacies to remain open and all producers of hygiene products to remain in production. All borders shut down. No one in, no one out from or to any country. No gatherings of any number of people. Electric, Internet, radio, TV, and internet service must remain regardless of ability to pay. Ok, he seems to have a good handle on this, at least in terms of planning. We shall see how well any of this is implemented.

 

[Blue Mountain]

The current situation in Canada:

Areas in Canada with cases of COVID-19 as of March 16, 2020, 6:45 pm EST

Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of probable cases
British Columbia|103|0
Alberta|74|0
Saskatchewan|2|5
Manitoba|7|0
Ontario|177|0
Quebec|50|0
Newfoundland and Labrador|0|1
New Brunswick|2|5
Nova Scotia|0|5
Prince Edward Island|1|0
Repatriated travellers|8|0
Total cases | 424 | 16

Deaths have risen to 4, all in British Columbia.

The number of cases is doubling every two days and a bit. My numbers are showing 79 on March 10, 152 on March 13, and 424 as of this evening's update. Only now is Canada taking serious measures to slow the spread, so I don't know when we'll see the growth curve start to flatten out. If it's a couple of weeks, that's at least six doublings from where we're at now. Starting at 424, we'd have:

Doubling | Total
1|848
2|1,696
3|3,392
4|6.784
5|13,568
6|27,136

Italy now stands at a comparable 27,980 cases and their health care system is overwhelmed. Only time will tell if Canada missed a bullet or the boat on its response.

 

[LondonJohn]

I told you, I have no problem with that, but I seriously doubt that young, healthy people have died from it. Even if no tests had been done, parents & families would be screaming to the media, who would have been all over it.

Anyway, neither of us can be proved right, so let's put it aside until we know more.

Also, the available data (even accounting for a degree of unreliability) does appear fairly conclusive in areas such as death by age group band. It appears clear that the overwhelming majority of deaths have occurred - and will continue to occur - among either the over-70s or those with very serious underlying medical conditions.

Obviously there will always be exceptions which prove the rule, and there will almost without doubt be fit, healthy, young (say, 20-40) people who will die. But their numbers are almost certain to be a tiny blip on the chart when compared with deaths of elderly and health-compromised people.

 

[LondonJohn]

Ok. Waiting on our President now. The whole country is inside watching this. What he says will have MAJOR implication.

ETA: There goes my job. Heading to the bar for the last 2 hours of service before all bars and eateries are closed for at least 15 days. Churches closed. Semana Santa suspended. All schools, commercial centers closed. He is requiring all pharmacies to remain open and all producers of hygiene products to remain in production. All borders shut down. No one in, no one out from or to any country. No gatherings of any number of people. Electric, Internet, radio, TV, and internet service must remain regardless of ability to pay. Ok, he seems to have a good handle on this, at least in terms of planning. We shall see how well any of this is implemented.

I'm so sorry that you're being directly adversely affected. But, as you say, hopefully these sorts of draconian measures will turn out to be for the greater good. I hope you'll manage to get by OK.

 

[The Atheist]

Ok, he seems to have a good handle on this, at least in terms of planning. We shall see how well any of this is implemented.

That's one of the more sensible responses I've seen at government level.

Meanwhile, WHO is using South Korea as an example: Test, Test, Test!

It's fairly obvious already that countries who test widely keep a lid on Covid-19.

Unfortunately, NZ & USA are following almost identical lack of testing.

At least our government has a handle on the financial side of it: A $12 billion package, aimed at workers who lose income and beneficiaries who will need extra money.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-and-pensioners-target-of-major-payment-boost

On a percentage of GDP, that's the equivalent of USA helping workers to the tune of over$200 billion.
________________________

And to finish, a complete surprise - three school kids in South Island are suspected of having Covid, despite no official cases in that region.

Edited to update - their father had just returned from Germany, where there is a touch of it about.

 

[chrispy]

That's one of the more sensible responses I've seen at government level.

Meanwhile, WHO is using South Korea as an example: Test, Test, Test!

It's fairly obvious already that countries who test widely keep a lid on Covid-19.

Unfortunately, NZ & USA are following almost identical lack of testing.

At least our government has a handle on the financial side of it: A $12 billion package, aimed at workers who lose income and beneficiaries who will need extra money.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...-and-pensioners-target-of-major-payment-boost

On a percentage of GDP, that's the equivalent of USA helping workers to the tune of over$200 billion.
________________________

And to finish, a complete surprise - three school kids in South Island are suspected of having Covid, despite no official cases in that region.

Edited to update - their father had just returned from Germany, where there is a touch of it about.

Man, be safe. This is crazy how rapidly everything (info, responses, cases, etc) is evolving.

 

[chrispy]

I'm so sorry that you're being directly adversely affected. But, as you say, hopefully these sorts of draconian measures will turn out to be for the greater good. I hope you'll manage to get by OK.

Thanks. We are a tight community, so everyone will help each other out for sure. We'll be good!

 

[The Atheist]

Man, be safe. This is crazy how rapidly everything (info, responses, cases, etc) is evolving.

Ah, we'll be right, mate - I've had an action plan ready to institute for weeks.

It's unquestionably the biggest thing that's happened in my life - air travel back to 1950s levels, almost no mass gathering anywhere, huge swathes of the world locked down, an unbelievable financial hit...

And we're right at the start!