2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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He did say, "don't go out to pubs, clubs and restaurants," without banning it. Which means that said establishments can't claim on their insurance for lost business.
 
marting said:
A lot of good info out of South Korea. Also Japan which has the oldest population. They got a lot of info from the Diamond Princess.
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Look at Germany as well - they seem to be following SK's lead and doing very widespread testing. They have almost exactly 1/3 the cases of Italy, but only 0.5% of Italy's deaths.

We are finally starting to get some hard data!

marting said:
Given the rapid increase in death rates in Italy compared to others I suspect there may be a dose sensitivity. It may decrease time from exposure to symptoms as well as exacerbate fatalities.
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I'm torn between several ideas, and that's one of them, especially given Italians' penchant for kissing each other.

I also think Italy's numbers are hugely out of kilter with reality. They tested late and let the outbreak get away and it could be as simple as there being a million infections in Italy right now, giving them a death rate of 0.2%.

It will become clear in the next few weeks one way or the other.
 
lomiller said:
Osteopathy is weird. On it’s own it’s clearly woo, but in the US at least it looks like Osteopaths receive enough real medical training that they can function as GP’s. I can't say I'm an expert though, there may be details in the coursework itself that could make all the difference.
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I've never encountered a DO that recommended Osteopathic stuff to my wife or I. A friend of mine did have a pediatrician recommend some sort of "alignment of structures" mumbo jumbo. My friend found a different doctor for his son.
 
dudalb said:
IN the UK, Boris had his big news confeence and did nothng.
The UK is totally scewed worse then the US is.
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The UK, it seems, is taking a lax approach to this. I don't believe they are testing nearly to the level the rest of Europe. They seem to think that letting the virus spread will shorten the duration of the pandemic and allow them to get back to normal sooner.

Big risk imo.

Time will tell.
 
DOnnie shows his compassion for Corona 19 victims"

From the WAPO"

President Trump told governors Monday that states should work on getting respirators and ventilators, and not wait for the federal government to provide them. The president’s comment was confirmed by multiple officials briefed on the call to governors earlier today.


Lets here the Trump worshippers defend this one.
 
Skeptical Greg said:
Glad that brings you some comfort in your " Whatever discredits Trump " bucket..

But in case you haven't been following along, you will be hard pressed to find an Osteopath in the US who practices osteopathy.
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I don't have to discredit Trump, he is dong a great job of that with his totally inept handling of this \crisis.
 
JeanTate said:
Thanks.

No one who is near and dear to you who is older and/or sicker than you (especially chronic lung conditions, or compromised immune systems)?
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Nope, I am the worst off. And a younger bro has been on chemo, but seems good now. CT today.
A nephew-in-law's father is in an altzheimers home. Not quite so near and dear, I go to a gun club during the week. Average age there is "decrepit". No doubt I will be touched.

Sure, we'll all be touched by one person in 200. But how bad should that effect the survivors?
 
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Kings Full said:
The UK, it seems, is taking a lax approach to this.
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Nothing lax about it - it's a carefully considered plan.

Whether right or wrong, as you say, time will tell, but it's deliberate rather than lax.

Kings Full said:
I don't believe they are testing nearly to the level the rest of Europe.
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No need - waste of resources on their plan.

Kings Full said:
They seem to think that letting the virus spread will shorten the duration of the pandemic and allow them to get back to normal sooner.
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From what I'm seeing now we have some reliable data, I'm beginning to think it's absolutely the right option.

South Korea & now Germany, are showing the disease has a mortality rate of 1% at worst, so get it over with while protecting the most vulnerable. That alone should reduce the rate well below 1% and you've saved enormous amounts of money, enabling the economy to recover faster.
 
The Atheist said:
Look at Germany as well - they seem to be following SK's lead and doing very widespread testing. They have almost exactly 1/3 the cases of Italy, but only 0.5% of Italy's deaths.

We are finally starting to get some hard data!



I'm torn between several ideas, and that's one of them, especially given Italians' penchant for kissing each other.

I also think Italy's numbers are hugely out of kilter with reality. They tested late and let the outbreak get away and it could be as simple as there being a million infections in Italy right now, giving them a death rate of 0.2%.

It will become clear in the next few weeks one way or the other.
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The main problem is that no one really knows how many people were infected in Italy.


On the Diamond princess more than half those who were infected reported no symptoms. Mortality rate for people with symptoms was 1.9% but among all cases it was 0.91%. This still skews high because the average age on the cruise ship was high.

Adjusting for age suggests an expected mortality rate in China of ~0.5%. Italy is older and should be higher, but AFAIK still lower than the 0.91 reported on the Diamond Princess?

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate
 
dudalb said:
DOnnie shows his compassion for Corona 19 victims"

From the WAPO"

President Trump told governors Monday that states should work on getting respirators and ventilators, and not wait for the federal government to provide them. The president’s comment was confirmed by multiple officials briefed on the call to governors earlier today.


Lets here the Trump worshippers defend this one.
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This sounds like what they should do anyway...if they are smart governors.

State gov't and the hospitals located there each have their own supplies to sift through to find out what they have, what they can repurpose, what they can fix, etc... Hopefully, they have already been doing this for weeks.

The fed gov't sends out where there are shortages from their 'secret stash'. I could see an issue with sending them to NYC or the Bay Area now and then other places get hit hard too and have no extras for themselves.

It will be tough to be fair if it gets bad.
 
casebro said:
Nope, I am the worst off. And a younger bro has been on chemo, but seems good now. CT today.
A nephew-in-law's father is in an altzeimers home. Not quite so near and dear, I go to a gun club during the week. Average age there is "decrepid". No doubt I will be touched.

Sure, we'll all be touched by onbe person in 200. But hiw bad should that effect the survivors?
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Don"t have much inthe way of compassion, do you?
 
The Six San Francisco Bay area counties to go into a total lockdown.All nonessential business to close.
Everybody to stay home.Can onlyleave hop for eseential trips like groceries.
 
The Atheist said:
From what I'm seeing now we have some reliable data, I'm beginning to think it's absolutely the right option.

South Korea & now Germany, are showing the disease has a mortality rate of 1% at worst, so get it over with while protecting the most vulnerable. That alone should reduce the rate well below 1% and you've saved enormous amounts of money, enabling the economy to recover faster.
Click to expand...

I don't think there's any truly reliable data, just some that seems more reliable at this time.

How do you "protect the most vulnerable"? This seems like a bit of double talk.

And even if the actual mortality rate is 1% that's still 10x that of the flu. 0.5%... 5x that of the flu. That's a lot of dead people.

All that said, I don't think there's only one way to deal with this pandemic. But like many experts there's no real consensus as to which method will turn out the best.
 
Late last week of my coworkers flew cross country and back for her grandfather's funeral. Today both she and her wife have coughs and fevers. She called he GP, but they could not recommend her for a test because she didn't have any known contact with anyone with nCov, and neither coworker nor coworker's wife are in any high risk categories. They just have to stay holed up in their home to avoid infecting anyone with the virus they can't get tested for.

Another coworker is also sick with a fever, and does not seem to be able to get a test either.

:boxedin:
 
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Thanks.

casebro said:
Nope, I am the worst off. And a younger bro has been on chemo, but seems good now. CT today.
A nephew-in-law's father is in an altzeimers home. Not quite so near and dear, I go to a gun club during the week. Average age there is "decrepid". No doubt I will be touched.

Sure, we'll all be touched by onbe person in 200. But hiw bad should that effect the survivors?
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Reading my subscription copy of the latest issue of The Economist, one article in particular: “Where will it be worst?”

Yes, robust estimates of the death rate, among those with Covid-19, are few, and likely not reliable when used in settings different from what was studied. But hey, at least the main trends are pretty consistent.

For example, “by age group, Hubei, Jan-Feb 2020”:
80+ 18%
70-79 ~10%
60-69 ~5%.

Maybe, a year or so from now, we’ll learn that in your state/county/city/whatever the number for 60 year olds is/was 2%. Or 12%. Maybe in your age group existing conditions were less important than among the 60s cohort in Italy. Or more important.

There’s a lot written about flattening the curve. Which is a central aim of social distancing etc (yes, it leads to, or could called, the PANIC). If, unfortunately, you do get infected, and your case becomes “severe”, I hope that wherever you get treated, resources are not stretched too thin ... from EMS to respirators and nurses. That awful decisions do not need to be made about your care (lots of professionals went through this in Hubei, and are now going through it in Lombardy Italy).

Also, it seems that recovery from severe cases is often both long and incomplete (your health will not return to its pre-Covid state).

For other readers: I know, little or nothing new in my post, you’ve written similar in many posts before. Here I’m trying to put the general info there is (uncertainties and all) into a personal context, one which is quite different from my own.
 
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