2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Fourteen more people have died from the coronavirus in the UK, raising the death toll to 35.
 
casebro said:
It means I have a greater than 99% chance of NOT dying of Covid 19. Stupid or deluded would be to let THAT interfere in my life.
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When it comes to life or death, 0.6% is not the sort of odds that I care to deal with.

It would be stupid for me to try and hide in a hole and turn my life completely upside down in order to avoid a 0.6% chance of death, but missing some sporting events, or even causing a temporary downturn in the economy, seems pretty reasonable.

If for no other reason, there are more than 150 people in the world whose untimely death would make me very sad. In other words, even at 0.6% mortality, this virus is going to interfere with my life.
 
Um, yeah. Most people would consider .6% of their friends, families, and coworkers dying an "interference" in their own lives even if they themselves don't die.


However, are any reputable organizations saying how many infections are actually expected?
 
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Giordano said:
I posted these interactive graphs upthread but they are directly relevant to some of the posts that ask "Why quarantine now? Eventually people will come out of quarantine and get sick anyway."

Play with when restrictions are imposed, and how serious the restrictions, and see the impact on illness and death:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
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Link doesn't work.

Here it is: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...l?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Weird, the original post works now. I guess Giordano may have edited it.
 
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theprestige said:
The virus isn't alive. It's an inert protein shell around an inert protein string. Plus a lipid envelope, all around an RNA genome

Are microwave ovens known for breaking down proteins?
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Yes, that is essentially what cooking does.

But how effectively that can happen probably depends on the dielectric content (most commonly water and fat) of the item, which determines if it can absorb microwaves and heat up to cooking temperatures. A dry item such as a glove may not absorb microwaves at all so it would not heat up any viruses on its surface. Running a microwave "dry" like that can also ruin the microwave.

I haven't found much about direct killing of enveloped viruses by microwaves independent of heating of what they are in. I'll keep looking.
 
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Cabbage said:
With all due respect, the notion that "impact" can be reduced to the single, simple metric "Number of deaths per day" is absurdly naive.
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Agreed, incredibly stupid. and ignorant.
IMHO this is just a variation of the "It's all a media hoax to get Trump" B.S.
 
casebro said:
It means I have a greater than 99% chance of NOT dying of Covid 19. Stupid or deluded would be to let THAT interfere in my life.
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And if you catch it and on't die, but pass it on to somebody who is more vulnerable?
Your ignorance and selfishness is incredble.
 
Darat said:
If you've read the threads you would see that plenty of people have been posting your experts speculations. You seen rather behind on the latest news.
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I think he is still in the "THr Corona VIrus Is Fake News" phrase.
 
Planigale said:
Unlike flu (for which children are definitely super spreaders) there is no evidence children are significant vectors for SARS CoV 2. There have been no school centred outbreaks. Transmission seems to be adult to adult. I am not saying you are wrong but the evidence so far is school closures will have a small impact on spread, and a large economic impact including loss of health service staff who will need to stay home to look after their own personal vectors.

ETA I have a friend who is an epidemiologist who wanted to call her daughter Vekta!
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Nonsense. Until you find out how the virus is spreading so far and wide so fast, you cannot rule out silent spreaders.
 
Planigale said:
The problem is that if you overdo quarantine then the epidemic peak shifts to winter which is worse. You need to quarantine enough and at the right time to smear the peak but not delay it significantly. So you probably want to lock down 3 - 4 weeks before the expected peak, early enough to flatten the peak but not too soon that you delay it much. Expected peak if we do nothing in the UK is 4 weeks end June / early July. Perhaps the best is a peak of 8 - 12 weeks July / August / September. Hopefully all the cabin crew and cafe workers who are now unemployed can help out in hospitals or on farms since there will be no migrant workers to help with harvests.
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More nonsense. What bubble do you live in?

Italy's hospitals are overwhelmed. The hospitals here in King County are swamped. The county is already putting up tents and buying motels to house infected people.

More than 40 employees at Life Care are infected. It needs to be seriously slowed down now.
 
Out of curiosity, how many single virusus does it usually need to get infected? I guess a single one is not enough, is it?
 
Italy with 3,590 new cases today (as of now), total of 24,747. I guess it would even be worse without the lock down of lombardy. And Iran at almost 14.000 cases.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
More nonsense. What bubble do you live in?

Italy's hospitals are overwhelmed. The hospitals here in King County are swamped. The county is already putting up tents and buying motels to house infected people.

More than 40 employees at Life Care are infected. It needs to be seriously slowed down now.
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Yes, it needs to be slowed but not stopped. If you stop it now it peaks in winter with the same severity but with the added load of flu etc. Delaying the peak is not the best option, the best option is to flatten it, the same total workload but spread over 8 or 12 weeks rather than over 4 weeks.
 
casebro said:
Skip the first five minutes of intro, in the next ten minutes the Johns Hopkins expert re-inforces what I have felt all along. .6% fatality tops, once you figure in all the mild cold like cases. NOT the end of the world. The PANIC will have a bigger effect.
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Life Care Center where 99% of the patients are infected had 2 more deaths over the weekend bringing the total to 27, plus the 11 deaths in the 3 weeks prior to the outbreak being recognized that still have not been tested brings the total to 38, less one of the deaths that was in a visitor.

37 deaths out of 120 patients initially and the deaths keep coming. You do the math and see how close to 0.6 case fatality rate you get.

All this incompetrump downplaying of the seriousness of this pandemic is refuted by the overwhelmed hospitals from China to Italy. And there are reports of people being left with permanent lung damage. Is that counted in your rosy little assessment? And what will the total number of deaths be if only 50% of the world's 7 billion people get infected? What is 0.6% of 4 billion?

0.6% of 4,000,000,000 = 24,000,000

When people compare the risks to influenza they forget to consider the infection % in a season.

Want to take a guess what's almost certainly happening in India right now?
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
Nonsense. Until you find out how the virus is spreading so far and wide so fast, you cannot rule out silent spreaders.
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I think we pretty well understand how it is spread. Droplets not aerosols. One or two days before onset of symptoms, but viral shedding is prolonged up to 3 weeks. Prolonged survival on surfaces.
The WHO view
Children are important drivers of influenza virus transmission in the community. For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa.
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https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2
 
Giordano said:
Yes, I absolutely believe the numbers coming out of S Korea. They are an open technologically sophisticated society, plugged into the heart of global health systems that are also monitoring the situation, their government is no more known for lying than that of the U.K. (maybe less so) and access of their people to the internet is very high. We would know if reality was very different from what is being reported.

The Chinese government lied initially but I think that the visibility of the situation there now means that the reports coming out now are more accurate.

If you think quarantine is too economically disruptive now wait until 60% of the population is ill, most have no access to health care, and tens of millions die. As explained upthread the time to invoke strong responses is before they may appear necessary to laypeople.
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I think no one is modelling this. Even at the worst only a total of 20% of the population is symptomatic and not all at the same time. Even allowing for a peak of 50% of cases over 4 weeks and duration of illness of 2 weeks this would suggest that at peak only 5% of the population will be symptomatic.
 
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